• Title/Summary/Keyword: ESTIMATE POPULATION NUMBER

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The Ageing Society of Korea and the Population Estimate (우리나라의 고령화 현상과 베이비붐 세대의 인구추계)

  • Hwang, Myung-Jin;Jung, Seung-Hwan
    • Korea journal of population studies
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    • v.34 no.2
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    • pp.113-133
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    • 2011
  • The generation of babyboomers has a significant impact on the socio-economic development of the society in general. The Korean Babyboomers will soon leave from their workforce as they reach the retirement age. This, coupled with the low fertility rate, may cause a serious social problem in the society at large as well as the social welfare issues among the Korean elderly population. The Central Statistical Systems have estimated the future projection which plays critical role to establish fundamental basis for the social and economic policies of the nation. This study examined the effect of the babyboomers on the life expectancy by comparing forecasted life expectancies provided by the statistical office and the previous studies in the related areas. The study also suggested a future population projection based on fertility rates provided, along with the changes of the number of babyboomers as they become ageing. The study results with the comparison between the population projection by the statistical office are provided.

Single-step genomic evaluation for growth traits in a Mexican Braunvieh cattle population

  • Jonathan Emanuel Valerio-Hernandez;Agustin Ruiz-Flores;Mohammad Ali Nilforooshan;Paulino Perez-Rodriguez
    • Animal Bioscience
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    • v.36 no.7
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    • pp.1003-1009
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    • 2023
  • Objective: The objective was to compare (pedigree-based) best linear unbiased prediction (BLUP), genomic BLUP (GBLUP), and single-step GBLUP (ssGBLUP) methods for genomic evaluation of growth traits in a Mexican Braunvieh cattle population. Methods: Birth (BW), weaning (WW), and yearling weight (YW) data of a Mexican Braunvieh cattle population were analyzed with BLUP, GBLUP, and ssGBLUP methods. These methods are differentiated by the additive genetic relationship matrix included in the model and the animals under evaluation. The predictive ability of the model was evaluated using random partitions of the data in training and testing sets, consistently predicting about 20% of genotyped animals on all occasions. For each partition, the Pearson correlation coefficient between adjusted phenotypes for fixed effects and non-genetic random effects and the estimated breeding values (EBV) were computed. Results: The random contemporary group (CG) effect explained about 50%, 45%, and 35% of the phenotypic variance in BW, WW, and YW, respectively. For the three methods, the CG effect explained the highest proportion of the phenotypic variances (except for YW-GBLUP). The heritability estimate obtained with GBLUP was the lowest for BW, while the highest heritability was obtained with BLUP. For WW, the highest heritability estimate was obtained with BLUP, the estimates obtained with GBLUP and ssGBLUP were similar. For YW, the heritability estimates obtained with GBLUP and BLUP were similar, and the lowest heritability was obtained with ssGBLUP. Pearson correlation coefficients between adjusted phenotypes for non-genetic effects and EBVs were the highest for BLUP, followed by ssBLUP and GBLUP. Conclusion: The successful implementation of genetic evaluations that include genotyped and non-genotyped animals in our study indicate a promising method for use in genetic improvement programs of Braunvieh cattle. Our findings showed that simultaneous evaluation of genotyped and non-genotyped animals improved prediction accuracy for growth traits even with a limited number of genotyped animals.

Estimating Completeness of Cancer Registration in Iran with Capture-Recapture Methods

  • Mohammadi, Gohar;Akbari, Mohammad Esmaeil;Mehrabi, Yadolah;Motlagh, Ali Ghanbari;Pour, Elham Partovi;Roshandel, Gholamreza;Khosravi, Ardasheir
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • v.17 no.sup3
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    • pp.93-99
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    • 2016
  • Completeness is an important indicator of data quality in cancer registry programs. This study aimed to estimate the completeness of registered cases in a population based cancer registry program implemented in five provinces of Iran. Capture-recapture methods were used to estimate the number of cases that may have been missed and to estimate rates of completeness for different categories of age, year, and sex. The data used for this study were obtained from three sources: 1) National Pathology Database; 2) National Hospital Discharge Database; and 3) National Death Registry Database. The three sources were linked and duplicates were identified based on first name, last name, father's names, and date of birth, ICD code, and case's residency address using Microsoft Excel. Removing duplicates, the three sources reported a total of 35,643 cases from March 2008 to March 2011. Running many different multivariate models of capture-recapture and controlling for source dependencies revealed an overall under-reporting of 49% in all five registries combined. The estimated completeness differed based on age, sex, and year. The overall completeness was higher for males than females (71.2% for males and 59.9% for females). Younger age had lower rates of completeness compared to older age (38.1% for <40 years, 55.4% for 40-60 years, and 76.7 for >60 years). The results of this study indicated a moderate to severe (depending on the age, sex and year) degree of completeness in the population based cancer registration of Iran.

A Stochastic Study for the Emergency Treatment of Carbon Monoxide Poisoning in Korea (일산화탄소중독(一酸化炭素中毒)의 진료대책(診療對策) 수립(樹立)을 위한 추계학적(推計學的) 연구(硏究))

  • Kim, Yong-Ik;Yun, Dork-Ro;Shin, Young-Soo
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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    • v.16 no.1
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    • pp.135-152
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    • 1983
  • Emergency medical service is an important part of the health care delivery system, and the optimal allocation of resources and their efficient utilization are essentially demanded. Since these conditions are the prerequisite to prompt treatment which, in turn, will be crucial for life saving and in reducing the undesirable sequelae of the event. This study, taking the hyperbaric chamber for carbon monoxide poisoning as an example, is to develop a stochastic approach for solving the problems of optimal allocation of such emergency medical facility in Korea. The hyperbaric chamber, in Korea, is used almost exclusively for the treatment of acute carbon monoxide poisoning, most of which occur at home, since the coal briquette is used as domestic fuel by 69.6 per cent of the Korean population. The annual incidence rate of the comatous and fatal carbon monoxide poisoning is estimated at 45.5 per 10,000 of coal briquette-using population. It offers a serious public health problem and occupies a large portion of the emergency outpatients, especially in the winter season. The requirement of hyperbaric chambers can be calculated by setting the level of the annual queueing rate, which is here defined as the proportion of the annual number of the queued patients among the annual number of the total patients. The rate is determined by the size of the coal briquette-using population which generate a certain number of carbon monoxide poisoning patients in terms of the annual incidence rate, and the number of hyperbaric chambers per hospital to which the patients are sent, assuming that there is no referral of the patients among hospitals. The queueing occurs due to the conflicting events of the 'arrival' of the patients and the 'service' of the hyperbaric chambers. Here, we can assume that the length of the service time of hyperbaric chambers is fixed at sixty minutes, and the service discipline is based on 'first come, first served'. The arrival pattern of the carbon monoxide poisoning is relatively unique, because it usually occurs while the people are in bed. Diurnal variation of the carbon monoxide poisoning can hardly be formulated mathematically, so empirical cumulative distribution of the probability of the hourly arrival of the patients was used for Monte Carlo simulation to calculate the probability of queueing by the number of the patients per day, for the cases of one, two or three hyperbaric chambers assumed to be available per hospital. Incidence of the carbon monoxide poisoning also has strong seasonal variation, because of the four distinctive seasons in Korea. So the number of the patients per day could not be assumed to be distributed according to the Poisson distribution. Testing the fitness of various distributions of rare event, it turned out to be that the daily distribution of the carbon monoxide poisoning fits well to the Polya-Eggenberger distribution. With this model, we could forecast the number of the poisonings per day by the size of the coal-briquette using population. By combining the probability of queueing by the number of patients per day, and the probability of the number of patients per day in a year, we can estimate the number of the queued patients and the number of the patients in a year by the number of hyperbaric chamber per hospital and by the size of coal briquette-using population. Setting 5 per cent as the annual queueing rate, the required number of hyperbaric chambers was calculated for each province and for the whole country, in the cases of 25, 50, 75 and 100 per cent of the treatment rate which stand for the rate of the patients treated by hyperbaric chamber among the patients who are to be treated. Findings of the study were as follows. 1. Probability of the number of patients per day follows Polya-Eggenberger distribution. $$P(X=\gamma)=\frac{\Pi\limits_{k=1}^\gamma[m+(K-1)\times10.86]}{\gamma!}\times11.86^{-{(\frac{m}{10.86}+\gamma)}}$$ when$${\gamma}=1,2,...,n$$$$P(X=0)=11.86^{-(m/10.86)}$$ when $${\gamma}=0$$ Hourly arrival pattern of the patients turned out to be bimodal, the large peak was observed in $7 : 00{\sim}8 : 00$ a.m., and the small peak in $11 : 00{\sim}12 : 00$ p.m. 2. In the cases of only one or two hyperbaric chambers installed per hospital, the annual queueing rate will be at the level of more than 5 per cent. Only in case of three chambers, however, the rate will reach 5 per cent when the average number of the patients per day is 0.481. 3. According to the results above, a hospital equipped with three hyperbaric chambers will be able to serve 166,485, 83,242, 55,495 and 41,620 of population, when the treatmet rate are 25, 50, 75 and 100 per cent. 4. The required number of hyperbaric chambers are estimated at 483, 963, 1,441 and 1,923 when the treatment rate are taken as 25, 50, 75 and 100 per cent. Therefore, the shortage are respectively turned out to be 312, 791. 1,270 and 1,752. The author believes that the methodology developed in this study will also be applicable to the problems of resource allocation for the other kinds of the emergency medical facilities.

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Genetic Diversity in Cultured and Wild Populations of the Ascidian Halocynthia roretzi Inferred from Mitochondrial DNA Analysis

  • Yoon, Moon-Geun;Lee, Joo-Kyung;Jin, Hyung-Joo;Jin, Deuk-Hee
    • Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences
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    • v.12 no.1
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    • pp.44-48
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    • 2009
  • Nucleotide sequences of about 500 bp from the 5' end of mitochondrial (mt) DNA Cytochrome Oxidase I (COI) were analyzed to estimate the genetic variation between wild and cultured populations of the ascidian Halocynthia roretzi from two sites along the coast of Korea. A total of 25 haplotypes were defined by 21 variable nucleotide sites in the examined COI region. Genetic diversity (haplotype diversity and nucleotide divergence) of wild populations was higher than that of the cultured population. These data suggest that reduced genetic variation in the cultured population may have results from bottleneck effect caused by the use of a limited number of parental stock and pooling of gametes for fertilization. Pairwise population $F_{ST}$ estimates inferred that wild and cultured populations were genetically distinct. The combined results suggest that sequence polymorphism in the COI region would be preferable for estimating the genetic diversity of ascidian populations.

Development of a model to forecast the external migration rate in development projects reflecting city characteristics

  • Kim, Ki-Bum;Park, Joon;Seo, Jee-Won;Yu, Young-Jun;Hyun, In-Hwan;Koo, Ja-Yong
    • Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.23 no.4
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    • pp.406-419
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    • 2018
  • In planning public service systems such as waterworks, the design population is very important factor. Owing to the limitations of the indirect method, two new models, which take into consideration urban characteristics, were developed to accurately predict external migration rate (EMR), which is an essential component in estimating reliably the design population. The root mean square error (RMSE) between the model values and observed values were 10.12 and 15.58 for the metropolitan cities and counties respectively and were lower compared to RMSE values of 27.31 and 28.79 obtained by the indirect method. Thus, the developed models provide a more accurate estimate of EMR than the indirect method. In addition, the major influencing factors for external migration in counties were development type, ageing index, number of businesses. On the other hand, the major influencing migration factors for cities were project scale, distance to city center, manufacturing size, population growth rate and residential environment. Future medium and long-term studies would be done to identify emerging trends to appropriately inform policy making.

An Estimation of Population at Risk of Exposure to Humidifier Disinfectant and Associated Health Effects (가습기 살균제 노출 실태와 피해규모 추산)

  • Byeon, Jieun;Kim, Hee-sung;Park, Moon-young;Lee, Kyoung-mu;Hong, Mueng-Gun;Choi, Ye-yong
    • Journal of Environmental Health Sciences
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    • v.46 no.4
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    • pp.457-469
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    • 2020
  • Objective: This study was designed to estimate the precise nationwide number of those who used humidifier disinfectants (HDs) and experienced specific health effects, including death, due to exposure to HDs in Korea between 1994 and 2011. Methods: A total of 5,000 households (15,472 people) were surveyed by stratifying the sample with a design that is equivalent to nationally approved household systematic sampling and face-to-face interviews from October 16, 2019 to December 30, 2019. Results: The proportion of use of humidifier disinfectants at home was 18.4% (2,844/15,472 people) and the proportion of those who experienced health effects among those who were exposed to HDs was 10.7% (303/2,844 people). Based on these factors, it was estimated that 8.94 million people (95% CI=8.25-9.63 million) were exposed to HDs and 0.95 million people (95% CI=0.87-1.02 million) experienced health effects, which means almost one in five and one in fifty Koreans respectively. The estimated number of deaths from HDs were 20,366 people (95% CI=18,801-21,931). Conclusion: The survey was large and analyzed a representative sample across the country, so this estimation of the nationwide population exposed and at risk to HDs is more accurate and reliable than previous studies. However, it is necessary to confirm whether results similar to those of this study can be reproduced through a survey using a cross-sectional survey at the national level. In particular, a survey focused on death cases is needed.

Extending Application of the 'Hardcore' Definition to Smokeless Tobacco Use: Estimates from a Nationally Representative Population in India and its Implications

  • Jena, Pratap Kumar;Bandyopadhyay, Chandan;Mathur, Manu Raj;Das, Sagarika
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • v.13 no.12
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    • pp.5959-5963
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    • 2012
  • Background: The term 'hardcore' has been applied to use of smoking tobacco and generally referred to as the inability or unwillingness of regular smokers to quit. The component constructs of hardcore except nicotine dependence are product neutral. With the use of 'time to first chew' as a measure of nicotine dependence, hardcore definition can be extended to characterize smokeless tobacco users. Hardcore users respond less to tobacco cessation interventions, and are prone to tobacco induced diseases including cancer. Thus identifying hardcore users would help in estimate the burden of high risk population for tobacco induced diseases. Smokeless tobacco use is predominant and accounts for more than 50% of oral cancer in India. Hence, hardcore chewing information could be used for planning of tobacco and cancer control interventions. The objective of this study was to assess the prevalence and associated factors of hardcore smokeless tobacco use in India. Materials and Methods: Global Adult Tobacco Survey (GATS)-India 2010 data were analyzed to quantify hardcore smokeless tobacco use in India with following five criteria: (1) current daily smokeless tobacco use; (2) no quit attempt in the past 12 months of survey or last quit attempt of less than 24 hours duration; (3) no intention to quit in next 12 months or not interested in quitting; (4) time to first use of smokeless tobacco product within 30 minutes of waking up; and (5) knowledge of smokeless tobacco hazards. Results: The number of hardcore smokeless tobacco users among adult Indians is estimated to be 5% (39.5 million). This group comprises 23.2% of daily smokeless tobacco users. The population prevalence varied from 1.4-9.1% across different national regions of India. Logistic regression modeling indicated age, education and employment status to be the major predictors of hardcore smokeless tobacco use in India. Conclusions: The presence of a huge number (39.5 million) of hardcore smokeless tobacco users is a challenge to tobacco control and cancer prevention in India. There is an unmet need for a universal tobacco cessation programme and intensification of anti-tobacco education in communities.

Allozyme Variation and Population Structure of Carex okamotoi (Cyperaceae), a Korean Endemic Species (한국 내 국부적으로 분포하는 지리사초의 알로자임 변이와 집단구조)

  • Huh, Man-Kyu;Choi, Joo-Soo
    • Journal of Life Science
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    • v.20 no.8
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    • pp.1151-1158
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    • 2010
  • The genetic diversity and population structures of fourteen Carex okamotoi (Cyperaceae) populations in Korea were determined using genetic variation at 25 allozyme loci. The Carex okamotoi species is native to Korea. It is endemic to three mountains (Mt. Taeback, Mt. Sobak, and Mt. Noreong) where it is found at 700~1,500 m above sea level. The percentage of polymorphic loci was 40.0%. Genetic diversity at the species level and at the population level was low ($H_{ES}$=0.106; $H_{EP}$=0.094), and the extent of the population divergence was relatively low ($G_{ST}$=0.082). Measurement of deviation from random mating ($F_{IS}$) within the 14 populations was 0.238. An indirect estimate of the number of migrants per generation was 2.78 (Nm=2.78). Analysis of fixation indices revealed a substantial heterozygosity deficiency in some populations and at some loci. Mean genetic identity between populations was 0.986.

Estimation of Dietary Choline Intake of Korean by Gender, Age and Region (한국인의 성별, 연령별, 지역별 콜린 섭취 추정량)

  • Jeone Han Ok;Kim Cho-il;Lee Haene Shin;Chune Young-Jin
    • Journal of Nutrition and Health
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    • v.38 no.4
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    • pp.320-326
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    • 2005
  • This study was conducted to estimate dietary choline intake of Koreans according to gender, age and region by using the data on per capita food intake in 1998 and 2001 and the data on choline contents of foods customarily eaten by Koreans. Sixty-four and 97 kinds of food items were used for the estimation of choline intake in 1998 and 2001, respectively. And these corresponded to approximately $90\%$ of the total amount of food intake and energy intake. Based on these food items and choline content, per capita choline intake of Koreans was estimated to be 623.0 mg and 602.4 mg in 1998 and 2001 respectively , 687.2 mg and 659.1 mg in 1998 and 2001 for male, 560.2 mg and 551.0 mg in 1998 and 2001 for female. While the number of foods considered in estimation was higher in 2001 than 1998, choline intake was lower in 2001. The estimated per capita choline intake of male population was higher than that of female population by 108-127 mg, possibly due to the difference in total amount of food intake. The age group with the highest choline intake was different between 2 time points. Although adolescents of 13- 19 years showed the highest intake (712.0 mg) in 1998, mid-aged adults of 30-49 years showed the highest choline intake (662.2 mg) followed by adolescents (645.7 mg) in 2001. In regional comparison, choline intake of the rural population (588.7 mg and 588.3 mg in 1998 and 2001 respectively) was lower than that of population in small to medium-size cities (625.1 mg and 603.9 mg) or in metropolitan cities (637.7 mg and 602.8 mg). This result revealed that per capita choline intake of the Korean population falls within the adequate range with some differences by age, sex and residing area.