• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.50 no.7
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• pp.489-502
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• 2017

The objective of this study is to propose and evaluate the BAYES-ESP, which is a dam inflow prediction method based on Ensemble Streamflow Prediction method (ESP) and Bayesian theory. ABCD rainfall-runoff model was used to predict monthly dam inflow. Monthly meteorological data collected from KMA, MOLIT and K-water and dam inflow data collected from K-water were used for the model calibration and verification. To estimate the performance of ABCD model, ESP and BAYES-ESP method, time series analysis and skill score (SS) during 1986~2015 were used. In time series analysis monthly ESP dam inflow prediction values were nearly similar for every years, particularly less accurate in wet and dry years. The proposed BAYES-ESP improved the performance of ESP, especially in wet year. The SS was used for quantitative analysis of monthly mean of observed dam inflows, predicted values from ESP and BAYES-ESP. The results indicated that the SS values of ESP were relatively high in January, February and March but negative values in the other months. It also showed that the BAYES-ESP improved ESP when the values from ESP and observation have a relatively apparent linear relationship. We concluded that the existing ESP method has a limitation to predict dam inflow in Korea due to the seasonality of precipitation pattern and the proposed BAYES-ESP is meaningful for improving dam inflow prediction accuracy of ESP.

• Journal of Drive and Control
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• v.16 no.2
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• pp.36-42
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• 2019

The ESP (Electronic Stability Program) is an active control system that controls the posture of the vehicle by sensing the unstable state of the vehicle during braking, driving, or turning. The system works if the vehicle becomes unstable and it is very dangerous to develop it in the actual vehicle. For this reason, many studies have been carried out on the method of developing with simulation such as SIL / EIL. Some advanced companies have already applied it to the product development process. In this study, ESP hydraulic system and braking device model were constructed using SimulationX to build ESP SIL / EIL model. The hydraulic system model was constructed using the actual design parameters and the performance of the hydraulic model was verified by comparing with the actual vehicle test.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.51 no.6
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• pp.523-533
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• 2018

The objective of this study is to analyze uncertainties of ensemble-based streamflow prediction method for model parameters and input data. ESP (Ensemble Streamflow Prediction) and BAYES-ESP (Bayesian-ESP) based on ABCD rainfall-runoff model were selected as streamflow prediction method. GLUE (Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation) was applied for the analysis of parameter uncertainty. The analysis of input uncertainty was performed according to the duration of meteorological scenarios for ESP. The result showed that parameter uncertainty was much more significant than input uncertainty for the ensemble-based streamflow prediction. It also indicated that the duration of observed meteorological data was appropriate to using more than 20 years. And the BAYES-ESP was effective to reduce uncertainty of ESP method. It is concluded that this analysis is meaningful for elaborating characteristics of ESP method and error factors of ensemble-based streamflow prediction method.

• Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment
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• v.27 no.3
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• pp.264-272
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• 2011

The objective of this study was to develop a model for predicting long-term runoff in a basin using the ensemble streamflow prediction (ESP) technique and review its reliability. To achieve the objective, this study improved not only the ESP technique based on the ensemble scenario analysis of historical rainfall data but also conventional ESP techniques used in conjunction with qualitative climate forecasting information, and analyzed and assessed their improvement effects. The model was applied to the Geum River basin. To undertake runoff forecasting, this study tried three cases (case 1: Climate Outlook + ESP, case 2: ESP probability through monthly measured discharge, case 3: Season ESP probability of case 2) according to techniques used to calculate ESP probabilities. As a result, the mean absolute error of runoff forecasts for case 1 proposed by this study was calculated as 295.8 MCM. This suggests that case 1 showed higher reliability in runoff forecasting than case 2 (324 MCM) and case 3 (473.1 MCM). In a discrepancy-ratio accuracy analysis, the Climate Outlook + ESP technique displayed 50.0%. This suggests that runoff forecasting using the Climate Outlook +ESP technique with the lowest absolute error was more reliable than other two cases.

• Journal of Korean Society for Atmospheric Environment
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• v.12 no.3
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• pp.243-254
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• 1996

The main purpose of this study is to investigate the collection efficiency characteristics of a cylindrical ESP. To do that, it is necessary to analyze the electric field, gas flow field, and mechanism of particle movement by numerical simulation based on EHD model. For a gas flow field, Navier-Stokes equation involving the electric source term was solved by SIMPLE algorithm. In case of the electric field, the current continuity and electric field equations were solved by S.O.R. method. The analysis of particle movement was performed on the basis of PSI-CELL model from the Lagrangian viewpoint. The results showed that the influence on the gas flow field by the electric field is almost negligible in a cylindrical ESP. The particle drift velocity $V_P$ toward the collection surface is increased continuously by the electrostatic force due to the rise of particle charge as the particle is moving to the flow direction and the particle size becomes larger. The collection efficiency is to quitely higher with the increase of applied voltage for the same particle size, while becomes smaller as the inlet velocity is increased.

• Proceedings of the Korean Society of Precision Engineering Conference
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• 2005.06a
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• pp.511-514
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• 2005

This paper propose an advanced control strategy to improve vehicle handling and directional stability by integrating Active Front Steering(AFS) with Electronic Stability Program(ESP) . The effect of the integrated control system on the vehicle handling characteristics and directional stability is studied through a close loop computer simulation of and eight degree of freedom nonlinear vehicle model and driver model. Simulation results confirm the effectiveness of the proposed control system and the overall improvements in vehicle handling and directional stability

• Proceedings of the KSME Conference
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• 2005.11a
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• pp.182.2-182.2
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• 2005

• Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
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• v.30 no.10 s.253
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• pp.1276-1283
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• 2006

This study proposes two ESP systems which are designed to enhance the lateral stability of a vehicle. A BESP uses an inner rear wheel braking pressure controller, while a EBESP employs an inner rear wheel and front outer wheel braking pressure controller. The performances of the BESP and EBESP are evaluated for various road conditions and steering inputs. They reduce the slip angle and eliminate variation in the lateral acceleration, which increase the controllability and stability of the vehicle. However EBESP enhances the lateral stability and comfort. A driver model is also developed to control the steer angle input. It shows good performances because the vehicle tracks the desired lane very well.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.44 no.12
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• pp.967-974
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• 2011

Based on daily time series from RDAPS numerical weather forecast, Streamflow prediction was simulated and the result of ESP analysis was implemented considering quantitative mid- and long-term forecast to compare the results and review applicability. The result of ESP, ESP considering quantitative weather forecast, and flow forecast from RDAPS numerical weather forecast were compared and analyzed with average observed streamflow in Guem River Basin. Through this process, the improvement effect per method was estimated. The result of ESP considering weather information was satisfactory relatively based on long-term flow forecast simulation result. Discrepancy ratio analysis for estimating accuracy of probability forecast had similar result. It is expected to simulate more accurate flow forecast for RDAPS numerical weather forecast with improved daily scenario including time resolution, which is able to accumulate 3 hours rainfall or continuous simulation estimation.

• Convergence Security Journal
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• v.14 no.5
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• pp.37-47
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• 2014

A Trojan malicious code is one of largest malicious codes and has been known as a virus that causes damage to a system as itself. However, it has been changed as a type that picks user information out stealthily through a backdoor method, and worms or viruses, which represent a characteristic of the Trojan malicious code, have recently been increased. Although several modeling methods for analyzing the diffusion characteristics of worms have proposed, it allows a macroscopic analysis only and shows limitations in estimating specific viruses and malicious codes. Thus, in this study an ESP model that can estimate future occurrences of Trojan malicious codes using the previous Trojan data is proposed. It is verified that the estimated value obtained using the proposed model is similar to the existing actual frequency in causes of the comparison between the obtained value and the result obtained by the Markov chain.