• Journal of Astronomy and Space Sciences
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• 제33권4호
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• pp.265-271
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• 2016

Interplanetary scintillation-driven (IPS-driven) ENLIL model was jointly developed by University of California, San Diego (UCSD) and National Aeronaucics and Space Administration/Goddard Space Flight Center (NASA/GSFC). The model has been in operation by Korean Space Weather Cetner (KSWC) since 2014. IPS-driven ENLIL model has a variety of ambient solar wind parameters and the results of the model depend on the combination of these parameters. We have conducted researches to determine the best combination of parameters to improve the performance of the IPS-driven ENLIL model. The model results with input of 1,440 combinations of parameters are compared with the Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) observation data. In this way, the top 10 parameter sets showing best performance were determined. Finally, the characteristics of the parameter sets were analyzed and application of the results to IPS-driven ENLIL model was discussed.

• 천문학회보
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• 제37권1호
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• pp.92.1-92.1
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• 2012

In this work we have examined the performance of the WSA/ENLIL cone model provided by Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC). The WSA/ENLIL model simulates the propagation of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) from the Sun into the heliosphere. We estimate the shock arrival times at the Earth using 29 halo CMEs from 2001 to 2002. These halo CMEs have cone model parameters from Michalek et al. (2007) as well as their associated interplanetary (IP) shocks. We make a comparison between CME arrival times by the WSA/ENLIL cone model and IP shock observations. For the WSA/ENLIL cone model, the root mean square(RMS) error is about 13 hours and the mean absolute error(MAE) is approximately 10.4 hours. We compared these estimates with those of the empirical model by Kim et al.(2007). For the empirical model, the RMS and MAE errors are about 10.2 hours and 8.7 hours, respectively. We are investigating several possibilities on relatively large errors of the WSA/ENLIL cone model, which may be caused by cone model velocities, CME density enhancement factor, or CME-CME interaction.

• 천문학회보
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• 제37권2호
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• pp.124.1-124.1
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• 2012

We have made a comparison of the WSA-ENLIL CME propagation model with three cone types and an empirical model using 29 halo CMEs from 2001 to 2002. These halo CMEs have cone model parameters from Michalek et al. (2007) as well as their associated interplanetary (IP) shocks. For this study we consider three different cone models (an asymmetric cone model, an ice-cream cone model and an elliptical cone model) to determine CME cone parameters (radial velocity, angular width and source location), which are used for input parameters of the WSA-ENLIL CME propagation model. The mean absolute error (MAE) of the arrival times at the Earth for the elliptical cone model is 10 hours, which is about 2 hours smaller than those of the other models. However, this value is still larger than that (8.7 hours) of an empirical model by Kim et al. (2007). We are investigating several possibilities on relatively large errors of the WSA-ENLIL cone model, which may be caused by CME-CME interaction, background solar wind speed, and/or CME density enhancement.

• 천문학회보
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• 제38권2호
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• pp.33-33
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• 2013

We are developing empirical space weather (solar flare, solar proton event, and geomagnetic storm) forecast models based on solar data. In this talk we will review our main results and recent progress. First, we have examined solar flare (R) occurrence probability depending on sunspot McIntosh classification, its area, and its area change. We find that sunspot area and its increase (a proxy of flux emergence) greatly enhance solar flare occurrence rates for several sunspot classes. Second, a solar proton event (S) forecast model depending on flare parameters (flare strength, duration, and longitude) as well as CME parameters (speed and angular width) has been developed. We find that solar proton event probability strongly depends on these parameters and CME speed is well correlated with solar proton flux for disk events. Third, we have developed an empirical storm (G) forecast model to predict probability and strength of a storm using halo CME - Dst storm data. For this we use storm probability maps depending on CME parameters such as speed, location, and earthward direction. We are also looking for geoeffective CME parameters such as cone model parameters and magnetic field orientation. We find that all superstorms (less than -200 nT) occurred in the western hemisphere with southward field orientations. We have a plan to set up a storm forecast method with a three-stage approach, which will make a prediction within four hours after the solar coronagraph data become available. We expect that this study will enable us to forecast the onset and strength of a geomagnetic storm a few days in advance using only CME parameters and the WSA-ENLIL model. Finally, we discuss several ongoing works for space weather applications.

• 천문학회보
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• 제44권1호
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• pp.50.2-50.2
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• 2019

Understanding three-dimensional structure and parameters (e.g., radial velocity, angular width, source location and density) of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) is essential for space weather forecast. In this study, we determine CME mean density in solar corona and near the Earth. We select 38 halo CMEs, which have the corresponding interplanetary CMEs (ICMEs), by SOHO/LASCO from 2000 to 2014. To estimate a CME volume, we assume that a CME structure is a full ice-cream cone which is a symmetrical circular cone combined with a hemisphere. We derive CME mean density as a function of radial height, which are approximately fitted to power-law functions. The average of power-law indexes is about 2.1 in the LASCO C3 field of view. We also obtain power-law functions for both CME mean density at 21 solar radii and ICME mean density at 1AU, with the average power-law index of 2.6. We estimate a ratio of CME density to background density based on the Leblanc et al.(1998) at 21 solar radii. Interestingly, the average of the ratios is 4.0, which is the same as a default value used in the WSA-ENLIL model.

• Journal of Astronomy and Space Sciences
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• 제34권4호
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• pp.315-330
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• 2017

Halo coronal mass ejections (CMEs) originating from solar activities give rise to geomagnetic storms when they reach the Earth. Variations in the geomagnetic field during a geomagnetic storm can damage satellites, communication systems, electrical power grids, and power systems, and induce currents. Therefore, automated techniques for detecting and analyzing halo CMEs have been eliciting increasing attention for the monitoring and prediction of the space weather environment. In this study, we developed an algorithm to sense and detect halo CMEs using large angle and spectrometric coronagraph (LASCO) C3 coronagraph images from the solar and heliospheric observatory (SOHO) satellite. In addition, we developed an image processing technique to derive the morphological and dynamical characteristics of halo CMEs, namely, the source location, width, actual CME speed, and arrival time at a 21.5 solar radius. The proposed halo CME automatic analysis model was validated using a model of the past three halo CME events. As a result, a solar event that occurred at 03:38 UT on Mar. 23, 2014 was predicted to arrive at Earth at 23:00 UT on Mar. 25, whereas the actual arrival time was at 04:30 UT on Mar. 26, which is a difference of 5 hr and 30 min. In addition, a solar event that occurred at 12:55 UT on Apr. 18, 2014 was estimated to arrive at Earth at 16:00 UT on Apr. 20, which is 4 hr ahead of the actual arrival time of 20:00 UT on the same day. However, the estimation error was reduced significantly compared to the ENLIL model. As a further study, the model will be applied to many more events for validation and testing, and after such tests are completed, on-line service will be provided at the Korean Space Weather Center to detect halo CMEs and derive the model parameters.

• 산업진흥연구
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• 제5권3호
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• pp.105-122
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• 2020

본 연구의 목적은 천궁도 28수(宿)와 낙샤트라에 대하여 고찰해보는 것이다. 천궁도가 어떤 과정을 거쳐서 만들어졌는지 고전 문헌에 기록된 자료들을 살펴보고 28수와 낙샤트라가 어떤 의미를 지니는지 살펴봄으로써 각 개인의 삶에 어떻게 적용될 수 있는지 알아보고자 하였다. 천궁도의 문헌적 고찰을 통해 천궁도가 기원전 1000년 전 바빌로니아인들 사이에 존재했으며 동물의 이름을 붙여서 부르기 시작한 데서 유래된 것으로 알려지고 있다. 아시리아인들이 기록한 점토판인 에누마 아누 엔릴(Enuma Anu Enlil)중 몰아핀(Molapin)에 "황도대는 달의 길"이라고 칭하고 있다. 따라서 천궁도라고 불리는 황도대는 달의 움직임을 통해서 만들어졌다는 것을 알 수 있었다. 또한 달이 지나는 길인 백도(白道)에 28개의 항성이 존재하며 이를 28수(宿)라 한다. 28수(宿)는 인도에서 낙샤트라라고 하며 낙샤트라를 통해서 개인의 타고난 운명을 읽을 수 있는 것이다. 음력의 태어난 달과 날짜를 알면 개인의 낙샤트라를 찾아 타고난 운명의 틀 안에서 가장 나은 삶을 선택할 수 있다. 그러므로 본 연구자는 천궁도와 28수(宿) 그리고 낙샤트라에 대한 문헌을 고찰하고 활용방안을 제시해 보았다. 이 연구 결과가 향후 관련 연구에 도움이 되기를 기대한다.