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Analysis of Forestry Structure and Induced Output Based on Input - output Table - Influences of Forestry Production on Korean Economy - (산업관련표(産業關聯表)에 의(依)한 임업구조분석(林業構造分析)과 유발생산액(誘發生産額) -임업(林業)이 한국경제(韓國經濟)에 미치는 영향(影響)-)

  • Lee, Sung-Yoon
    • Journal of the Korean Wood Science and Technology
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    • v.2 no.4
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    • pp.4-14
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    • 1974
  • The total forest land area in Korea accounts for some 67 percent of the nation's land total. Its productivity, however, is very low. Consequently, forest production accounts for only about 2 percent of the gross national product and a minor proportion of no more than about 5 percent versus primary industry. In this case, however, only the direct income from forestry is taken into account, making no reference to the forestry output induced by other industrial sectors. The value added Or the induced forestry output in manufacturing the primary wood products into higher quality products, makes a larger contribution to the economy than direct contribution. So, this author has tried to analyze the structure of forestry and compute the repercussion effect and the induced output of primary forest products when utilized by other industries for their raw materials, Hsing the input-output table and attached tables for 1963 and 1966 issued by the Bank of Korea. 1. Analysis of forestry structure A. Changes in total output Durng the nine-year period, 1961-1969, the real gross national product in Korea increased 2.1 times, while that of primary industries went up about 1. 4 times. Forestry which was valued at 9,380 million won in 1961, was picked up about 2. 1 times to 20, 120 million won in 1969. The rate of the forestry income in the GNP, accordingly, was no more than 1.5 percent both in 1961 and 1962, whereas its rate in primary industries increased 3.5 to 5.4 percent. Such increase in forestry income is attributable to increased forest production and rise in timber prices. The rate of forestry income, nonetheless, was on the decrease on a gradual basis. B. Changes in input coefficient The input coefficient which indicates the inputs of the forest products into other sectors were up in general in 1966 over 1963. It is noted that the input coefficient indicating the amount of forest products supplied to such industries closely related with forestry as lumber and plywood, and wood products and furniture, showed a downward trend for the period 1963-1966. On the other hand, the forest input into other sectors was generally on the increase. Meanwhile, the input coefficient representing the yolume of the forest products supplied to the forestry sector itself showed an upward tendency, which meant more and more decrease in input from other sectors. Generally speaking, in direct proportion to the higher input coefficient in any industrial sector, the reinput coefficient which denotes the use of its products by the same sector becomes higher and higher. C. Changes in ratio of intermediate input The intermediate input ratio showing the dependency on raw materials went up to 15.43 percent m 1966 from 11. 37 percent in 1963. The dependency of forestry on raw materials was no more than 15.43 percent, accounting for a high 83.57 percent of value added. If the intermediate input ratio increases in any given sector, the input coefficient which represents the fe-use of its products by the same sector becomes large. D. Changes in the ratio of intermediate demand The ratio of the intermediate demand represents the characteristics of the intermediary production in each industry, the intermediate demand ratio in forestry which accunted for 69.7 percent in 1963 went up to 75.2 percent in 1966. In other words, forestry is a remarkable industry in that there is characteristics of the intermediary production. E. Changes in import coefficient The import coefficient which denotes the relation between the production activities and imports, recorded at 4.4 percent in 1963, decreased to 2.4 percent in 1966. The ratio of import to total output is not so high. F. Changes in market composition of imported goods One of the major imported goods in the forestry sector is lumber. The import value increased by 60 percent to 667 million won in 1966 from 407 million won in 1963. The sales of imported forest products to two major outlets-lumber and plywood, and wood products and furniture-increased to 343 million won and 31 million won in 1966 from 240million won and 30 million won in 1963 respectively. On the other hand, imported goods valued at 66 million won were sold to the paper products sector in 1963; however, no supply to this sector was recorded in 1963. Besides these major markets, primary industries such as the fishery, coal and agriculture sectors purchase materials from forestry. 2. Analysis of repercussion effect on production The repercussion effect of final demand in any given sector upon the expansion of the production of other sectors was analyzed, using the inverse matrix coefficient tables attached to the the I.O. Table. A. Changes in intra-sector transaction value of inverse matrix coefficient. The intra-sector transaction value of an inverse matrix coefficient represents the extent of an induced increase in the production of self-support products of the same sector, when it is generated directly and indirectly by one unit of final demand in any given sector. The intra-sector transaction value of the forestry sector rose from 1.04 in 1963 to 1, 11 in 1966. It may well be said, therefore, that forestry induces much more self-supporting products in the production of one unit of final demand for forest products. B. Changes in column total of inverse matrix coefficient It should be noted that the column total indicates the degree of effect of the output of the corresponding and related sectors generated by one unit of final demand in each sector. No changes in the column total of the forestry sector were recorded between the 1963 and 1966 figures, both being the same 1. 19. C. Changes in difference between column total and intra-sector transaction amount. The difference between the column total and intra-sector transaction amount by sector reveals the extent of effect of output of related industrial sector induced indirectly by one unit of final demand in corresponding sector. This change in forestry dropped remarkable to 0.08 in 1966 from 0.15 in 1963. Accordingly, the effect of inducement of indirect output of other forestry-related sectors has decreased; this is a really natural phenomenon, as compared with an increasing input coefficient generated by the re-use of forest products by the forestry sector. 3. Induced output of forestry A. Forest products, wood in particular, are supplied to other industries as their raw materials, increasng their value added. In this connection the primary dependency rate on forestry for 1963 and 1966 was compared, i. e., an increase or decrease in each sector, from 7.71 percent in 1963 to 11.91 percent in 1966 in agriculture, 10.32 to 6.11 in fishery, 16.24 to 19.90 in mining, 0.76 to 0.70 in the manufacturing sector and 2.79 to 4.77 percent in the construction sector. Generally speaking, on the average the dependency on forestry during the period 1963-1966 increased from 5.92 percent to 8.03 percent. Accordingly, it may easily be known that the primary forestry output induced by primary and secondary industries increased from 16, 109 million won in 1963 to 48, 842 million won in 1966. B. The forest products are supplied to other industries as their raw materials. The products are processed further into higher quality products. thus indirectly increasing the value of the forest products. The ratio of the increased value added or the secondary dependency on forestry for 1963 and 1966 showed an increase or decrease, from 5.98 percent to 7.87 percent in agriculture, 9.06 to 5.74 in fishery, 13.56 to 15.81 in mining, 0.68 to 0.61 in the manufacturing sector and 2.71 to 4.54 in the construction sector. The average ratio in this connection increased from 4.69 percent to 5.60 percent. In the meantime, the secondary forestry output induced by primary and secondary industries rose from 12,779 million Wall in 1963 to 34,084 million won in 1966. C. The dependency of tertiary industries on forestry showed very minor ratios of 0.46 percent and 0.04 percent in 1963 and 1966 respectively. The forestry output induced by tertiary industry also decreased from 685 million won to 123 million won during the same period. D. Generally speaking, the ratio of dependency on forestry increased from 17.68 percent in 1963 to 24.28 percent in 1966 in primary industries, from 4.69 percent to 5.70 percent in secondary industries, while, as mentioned above, the ratio in the case of tertiary industry decreased from 0.46 to 0.04 percent during the period 1963-66. The mining industry reveals the heaviest rate of dependency on forestry with 29.80 percent in 1963 and 35.71 percent in 1966. As it result, the direct forestry income, valued at 8,172 million won in 1963, shot up to 22,724 million won in 1966. Its composition ratio lo the national income rose from 1.9 percent in 1963 to 2.3 per cent in 1966. If the induced outcome is taken into account, the total forestry production which was estimated at 37,744 million won in 1963 picked up to 105,773 million won in 1966, about 4.5 times its direct income. It is further noted that the ratio of the gross forestry product to the gross national product. rose significantly from 8.8 percent in 1963 to 10.7 percent in 1966. E. In computing the above mentioned ratio not taken into consideration were such intangible, indirect effects as the drought and flood prevention, check of soil run-off, watershed and land conservation, improvement of the people's recreational and emotional living, and maintenance and increase in the national health and sanitation. F. In conclusion, I would like to emphasize that the forestry sector exercices an important effect upon the national economy and that the effect of induced forestry output is greater than its direct income.

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Effect of Breed (Lean or Fat Pigs) and Sex on Performance and Feeding Behaviour of Group Housed Growing Pigs in a Tropical Climate

  • Renaudeau, D.;Giorgi, M.;Silou, F.;Weisbecker, J.L.
    • Asian-Australasian Journal of Animal Sciences
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    • v.19 no.4
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    • pp.593-600
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    • 2006
  • The effects of breed and sex on individual growth performance and feeding behaviour were studied between 45 and 90 kg BW in two replicates of forty group-housed pigs. The first and the second replicates were carried out during the warm season (i.e. between February and April 2003) and during the hot season (i.e. between August and October 2003), respectively. During the warm season, ambient temperature and relative humidity averaged $25.3^{\circ}C$ and 86.0%. The corresponding values for the hot season were $27.9^{\circ}C$ and 83.6%. The pigs were grouped in pens of 10 animals on the basis of breed (Creole or Large White) and sex (gilt or castrated male) and given ad libitum access to a grower diet (9.0 MJ/kg net energy and 158 g/kg crude protein) via feed intake recording equipment (Acema 48). An ear-tag transponder was inserted into each pig and this allowed the time, duration, and size of individual visits to be recorded. The growth performance and feeding pattern were significantly affected by breed, sex, and season. The Creole pigs (CR) had a lower average daily gain (ADG) (642 vs. 861 g/d, p<0.01) and carcass lean content ($LC_{90kg}$) (35.4 vs. 54.5%; p<0.01) and a higher backfat thickness at 90 kg BW ($BT_{90kg}$) (23.4 vs. 10.4 mm; p<0.01) than Large White pigs (LW) whereas the average daily feed intake (ADFI) was not affected by breed (2.34 vs. 2.22 kg/d, respectively for CR and LW pigs; p>0.10). Consequently, the food:gain ratio was higher in CR than in LW (3.65 vs. 2.58; p<0.01). CR had less frequent meals but ate more feed per meal than LW (5.9 vs. 8.8 meals/d and 431 vs. 279 g/meal; p<0.01). The rate of feed intake was lower (27.6 vs. 33.9 g/min; p<0.01) and the ingestion time per day and per meal were higher in CR than in LW (87.1 vs. 69.7 min/d and 15.8 vs. 8.4 min/meal; p<0.01). The ADFI and BT90 kg were higher (2.38 vs. 2.17 kg/d and 18.1 vs. 15.9 mm; p<0.05) and LC90 kg was lower (43.5 vs. 46.4%; p<0.01) in castrated males (CM) than in gilts (G) whereas ADG was not affected by sex (p = 0.12). The difference in lean content between CM and G was greater in CR than in LW. The ADFI and ADG were reduced during the hot season (2.18 vs.2.38 kg/d and 726 vs. 777 g/d, respectively; p<0.05) whereas feed conversion and carcass lean content were not affected by season (p>0.05). Average feeding time per meal and meal size decreased during the hot season (10.9 vs. 13.2 min/meal and 316 vs. 396 g/meal; p<0.01) whereas the rate of feed intake was not affected by season (p = 0.83). On average, 0.69 of total feed intake was consumed during the diurnal period. However, this partition of feed intake was significantly affected by breed, sex, and season. In conclusion, the breed, sex and season significantly affect performance and feeding pattern in growing pigs raised in a tropical climate. Moreover, the results obtained in the present study suggest that differences observed in BW composition between CR and LW are associated with difference in feeding behaviour, in particular, the short-term regulation of feed intake.

Enhancing Technology Learning Capabilities for Catch-up and Post Catch-up Innovations (기술학습역량 강화를 통한 추격 및 탈추격 혁신 촉진)

  • Bae, Zong-Tae;Lee, Jong-Seon;Koo, Bonjin
    • The Journal of Small Business Innovation
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    • v.19 no.2
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    • pp.53-68
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    • 2016
  • Motivation and activities for technological learning, entrepreneurship, innovation, and creativity are driving forces of economic development in Asian countries. In the early stages of technological development, technological learning and entrepreneurship are efficient ways in which to catch up with advanced countries because firms can accumulate skills and knowledge quickly at relatively low risk. In the later stages of technological development, however, innovation and creativity become more important. This study aims to identify a) the factors (learning capabilities) that influence technological learning performance and b) barriers to enhancing innovation capabilities for the creative economy and organizations. The major part of this study is related to learning capabilities in the post-catch-up era. Based on a literature review and observations from Korean experiences, this study proposes a technological learning model composed of various influencing factors on technological learning. Three hypotheses are derived, and data are collected from Korean machine tool manufacturers. Intense interviews with CEOs and R&D directors are conducted using structured questionnaires. Statistical analysis, such as correlation and ANOVA are then carried out. Furthermore, this study addresses how to enhance innovation capabilities to move forward. Innovation enablers and barriers are identified by case studies and policy analysis. The results of the empirical study identify several levels of firms' learning capabilities and activities such as a) stock of technology, b) potential of technical labor, c) explicit technological efforts, d) readiness to learn, e) top management support, f) a formal technological learning system, g) high learning motivation, h) appropriate technology choice, and i) specific goal setting. These learning capabilities determine firms' learning performance, especially in the early stages of development. Furthermore, it is found that the critical factors for successful technological learning vary along the stages of technology development. Throughout the statistical and policy analyses, this study confirms that technological learning can be understood as an intrinsic principle of the technology development process. Firms perform proactive and creative learning in the late stages, while reactive and imitative learning prevails in the early stages. In addition, this study identifies the driving forces or facilitating factors enhancing innovation performance in the post catch-up era. The results of the preliminary case studies and policy analysis show some facilitating factors such as a) the strategic intent of the CEO and corporate culture, b) leadership and change agents, c) design principles and routines, d) ecosystem and collaboration with partners, and e) intensive R&D investment.

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Etiologic Survey on the Acute Diarrhea of Puppies in Seoul (서울지역에서 문제되고 있는 강아지의 급성설사증에 관한 병인학적 연구)

  • Han Hong-Ryul;Park Hee-Myung;Lee Jin-Hee;Oh Tae-Ho;Jeong Soon-Wuk;Youn Sin-Keun;Park Cheol-Man
    • Journal of Veterinary Clinics
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    • v.10 no.2
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    • pp.171-184
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    • 1993
  • In Seoul area, there are so many kennel clubs, veterinary hospital, pet establishment and breeding confers that various problems have occurred. They are crowed pet houses, poor sanitation, stress to puppies, sudden environmental changes to puppies and unvaccination against parvovirus, canine distemper virus, parainfluenza virus, infectious hepatitis caused by Adenovirus type I and Leptospira. Several studies were made to survey the infectious agents involved in acute diarrhea of poppies in Seoul are, such as history taking, physical examination, complete blood count and serum chemistry, histopathological finding, bacterial isolation and identification, and hemagglutination test in feces and hemagglutination inhibition test in serum against parvovirus, respectively. The results obtained are summarized as followed. 1. The percent of PCV (30.5$\pm$5.6) and concentration of Total protein(5.0$\pm$0.8) resulted from statistical analysis are significantly lower than normal values (p<0.05), respectively. In addition, fibrinogen (505$\pm$326) was significantly higher an normal value (p<0.001), Band neutrophil (22.9$\pm$12.7) showed signifiant difference (P<0.01). decreased monocyte (3.2$\pm$2.1) and eosinophil (0.7$\pm$0.8) values appeared statistically significant (p<0.001), lymphocyte (16.7$\pm$9), as well. 2. The concentrations of calcium .(8.0$\pm$2.8), glucose (40.1$\pm$31.4), and albumin (2.0$\pm$0.39) were lower than normal values (p<0.01, p<0.01, p<0.001), respectively. Also Inorganic phosphate (7.1$\pm$2.4), pH (p<7.9f:0.2), and Blood Urea Nitrogen (40.41=37.1) were significantly higher than normal values (p<0.001, p(0.001, p<0.05), respectively. 3. Simple and mixed infections occupied 18% and 82% in the distribution of causes in puppies with acute diarrhea, respectively. 4. As puppies got older, incidence of acute diarrhea caused by Staphylococcus aureus was decreased to 13% and infection of canine distemper virus was increased to 53%, but E coli and canine parvovirus always showed high frequency of outbreak in the body weight ranged from 35g to 7.8Kg. 5. As showed in table 5, infections of E coli and Canine Parvovirus showed high outbreak regardless of the age which is classified into three stages, 35~50 day, 60 day and 75~day to 1 year, canine distemper virus appeared increased, but in case of Staphylococcus aureus, visa versa. 6. In comparison wi methods for the laboratory diagnosis diagnosis parvovirus, Hemagglutination test showed positive reaction in 25% and mean serum antibody titer measured by Hemagglutination inhibition test showed 2779 (n=20). In addition, positive reaction was 90% (18/20). 7. In histopathological studies, enteritic and pneumonic lesions were indicated in 53.7% and 39.5% of samples, respectively. 8. Etiologic diagnosis based on the history taking, clinical signs and histopathological findings in puppies with acute diarrhea and vomiting indicated that 50% of puppies were infected by canine parvovirus and distemper virus. 9. In the parasitological examination made by simple flotation with saturated zinc sulfate tour parasites found were Isospora canis, Toxocara canis, Ancylostoma spp and Toxocara spp. Isospora canis and Toxocara canis were more frequently found among those parasites of diarrhoeic causes in puppies ranged from 35 days to 1 year. Their infestation rates were 15% and 13% respectively.

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Study of Synthesis and Biological Function on Aminophosphonic Acids (Aminophosphonic Acids 화합물의 생물학적 기능연구)

  • Kim, Sook-He
    • Journal of Nutrition and Health
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    • v.4 no.4
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    • pp.39-46
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    • 1971
  • Since ${\beta}-aminoethylphosphonic$ acid was discovered in the living organism, the biosynthesis and biological function of aminophosphonic acids have been extensively studied. The purpose of this project consists in the two parts: 1)the preparation of DL-1-amino-2-phenylethylphosphonic acid (Phenylalanine aminophosphonic acid) and DL-1-amino-3-methylbutyl-phosphonic acid (Isoleucine aminophosphonic acid) by the method of Chamber and Isbell. 2) the study of metabolism and biological functions of those synthetic materials by the animal experiment (white rats) The importance of this project proved to be the first experience fed by animals for the elucidation of biochemical and metabolic functions in the animal body. The following organic synthesis of DL-1-amino-3-methylbutylphosphonic acid and DL-1-amino-2-phenylethylphosphonic acid are studied. 1)Synthesis of DL-1-amino-3-methylbutylphosphonic acid a) Synthesis of Iso-butylbromide b) Synthesis of Ethyl iso-butylmalonate c) Synthesis of Iso-caproic acid d) Synthesis of $Ethyl-{\alpha}-bromo$ iso-caproate e) Synthesis of $Triethyl-{\alpha}-phosphono$ iso-caproate f) Synthesis of DL-1-amino-3-methylbutylphosphonic acid 2)Synthesis of DL-1-amino-2-phenylethylphosphonic acid a) Synthesis of Diethyl phosphite b) Synthesis of Ethylchloro acetate c) Synthesis of Triethyl phospho acetate d) Synthesis of Triethyl benzyl phospho acetate e) Synthesis of DL-1-amino-2-phenylethylphosphonic acid The synthetic compounds; DL-1-amino-3-methylbutylphosphonic acid and DL-1-amino-2-phenyl ethylphosphonic acid which are essential amino acid (isoleucine, phenylalanine)analogue are supplemented to the animal diet at the level of 0.2% and 0.4% for isoleucine analogue and 0.35% and 0.7% for phenylalanine analogue. The plain isoleucine and phenylalanine at the same level in the diet are fercilitated as comparable groups in this study. Two sets of experience including 100 male rats were carried out for seven weeks each total 14 weeks. During this period, urine samples, and each big organs were collected for the analysis of total nitrogen, phosphorus, and glycogen contents in the individual samples by Micro Kjeldahl Fisk & Subbarow and Nelson Somogye, method. 1) The result of the project a) The yield of DL-1-amino-3-methylbutylphosphonic acid and DL-1-amino-2-phenylethylphosphonic acid showed low tendency at the level of 12.5% and 20% Melting point of those two compounds were very high and the ${\alpha}-amino$ group in the synthetic compounds showed positive reaction with ninhydrin in the violet color. b) Ail the experimental groups included in this study revealed statistically no significant difference in the organ weight, total body nitrogen retention and urinary phosphorus excretion This means isoleucine aminophosphonic acid and Phenylalanine aminophosphonic acid were utilized in the body as much as the plain amino acids, isoleucine and phenylalanine did. c) The glycogen contents in the liver of the phenylalaine aminophosphonic acid gruop showed higher statistically significant(p<0.05) in the comparision with the group of the Phenylalanine and the Standard-2. It was noteworthy that the higher glycogen content in the liver might indicate the significance in the incorporation of phenylalanine aminophosphonic acid into the intermediate of tricarboxylic acid cycle as activated state.

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Social Network Analysis for the Effective Adoption of Recommender Systems (추천시스템의 효과적 도입을 위한 소셜네트워크 분석)

  • Park, Jong-Hak;Cho, Yoon-Ho
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.17 no.4
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    • pp.305-316
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    • 2011
  • Recommender system is the system which, by using automated information filtering technology, recommends products or services to the customers who are likely to be interested in. Those systems are widely used in many different Web retailers such as Amazon.com, Netfix.com, and CDNow.com. Various recommender systems have been developed. Among them, Collaborative Filtering (CF) has been known as the most successful and commonly used approach. CF identifies customers whose tastes are similar to those of a given customer, and recommends items those customers have liked in the past. Numerous CF algorithms have been developed to increase the performance of recommender systems. However, the relative performances of CF algorithms are known to be domain and data dependent. It is very time-consuming and expensive to implement and launce a CF recommender system, and also the system unsuited for the given domain provides customers with poor quality recommendations that make them easily annoyed. Therefore, predicting in advance whether the performance of CF recommender system is acceptable or not is practically important and needed. In this study, we propose a decision making guideline which helps decide whether CF is adoptable for a given application with certain transaction data characteristics. Several previous studies reported that sparsity, gray sheep, cold-start, coverage, and serendipity could affect the performance of CF, but the theoretical and empirical justification of such factors is lacking. Recently there are many studies paying attention to Social Network Analysis (SNA) as a method to analyze social relationships among people. SNA is a method to measure and visualize the linkage structure and status focusing on interaction among objects within communication group. CF analyzes the similarity among previous ratings or purchases of each customer, finds the relationships among the customers who have similarities, and then uses the relationships for recommendations. Thus CF can be modeled as a social network in which customers are nodes and purchase relationships between customers are links. Under the assumption that SNA could facilitate an exploration of the topological properties of the network structure that are implicit in transaction data for CF recommendations, we focus on density, clustering coefficient, and centralization which are ones of the most commonly used measures to capture topological properties of the social network structure. While network density, expressed as a proportion of the maximum possible number of links, captures the density of the whole network, the clustering coefficient captures the degree to which the overall network contains localized pockets of dense connectivity. Centralization reflects the extent to which connections are concentrated in a small number of nodes rather than distributed equally among all nodes. We explore how these SNA measures affect the performance of CF performance and how they interact to each other. Our experiments used sales transaction data from H department store, one of the well?known department stores in Korea. Total 396 data set were sampled to construct various types of social networks. The dependant variable measuring process consists of three steps; analysis of customer similarities, construction of a social network, and analysis of social network patterns. We used UCINET 6.0 for SNA. The experiments conducted the 3-way ANOVA which employs three SNA measures as dependant variables, and the recommendation accuracy measured by F1-measure as an independent variable. The experiments report that 1) each of three SNA measures affects the recommendation accuracy, 2) the density's effect to the performance overrides those of clustering coefficient and centralization (i.e., CF adoption is not a good decision if the density is low), and 3) however though the density is low, the performance of CF is comparatively good when the clustering coefficient is low. We expect that these experiment results help firms decide whether CF recommender system is adoptable for their business domain with certain transaction data characteristics.

A Hybrid Forecasting Framework based on Case-based Reasoning and Artificial Neural Network (사례기반 추론기법과 인공신경망을 이용한 서비스 수요예측 프레임워크)

  • Hwang, Yousub
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.18 no.4
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    • pp.43-57
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    • 2012
  • To enhance the competitive advantage in a constantly changing business environment, an enterprise management must make the right decision in many business activities based on both internal and external information. Thus, providing accurate information plays a prominent role in management's decision making. Intuitively, historical data can provide a feasible estimate through the forecasting models. Therefore, if the service department can estimate the service quantity for the next period, the service department can then effectively control the inventory of service related resources such as human, parts, and other facilities. In addition, the production department can make load map for improving its product quality. Therefore, obtaining an accurate service forecast most likely appears to be critical to manufacturing companies. Numerous investigations addressing this problem have generally employed statistical methods, such as regression or autoregressive and moving average simulation. However, these methods are only efficient for data with are seasonal or cyclical. If the data are influenced by the special characteristics of product, they are not feasible. In our research, we propose a forecasting framework that predicts service demand of manufacturing organization by combining Case-based reasoning (CBR) and leveraging an unsupervised artificial neural network based clustering analysis (i.e., Self-Organizing Maps; SOM). We believe that this is one of the first attempts at applying unsupervised artificial neural network-based machine-learning techniques in the service forecasting domain. Our proposed approach has several appealing features : (1) We applied CBR and SOM in a new forecasting domain such as service demand forecasting. (2) We proposed our combined approach between CBR and SOM in order to overcome limitations of traditional statistical forecasting methods and We have developed a service forecasting tool based on the proposed approach using an unsupervised artificial neural network and Case-based reasoning. In this research, we conducted an empirical study on a real digital TV manufacturer (i.e., Company A). In addition, we have empirically evaluated the proposed approach and tool using real sales and service related data from digital TV manufacturer. In our empirical experiments, we intend to explore the performance of our proposed service forecasting framework when compared to the performances predicted by other two service forecasting methods; one is traditional CBR based forecasting model and the other is the existing service forecasting model used by Company A. We ran each service forecasting 144 times; each time, input data were randomly sampled for each service forecasting framework. To evaluate accuracy of forecasting results, we used Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) as primary performance measure in our experiments. We conducted one-way ANOVA test with the 144 measurements of MAPE for three different service forecasting approaches. For example, the F-ratio of MAPE for three different service forecasting approaches is 67.25 and the p-value is 0.000. This means that the difference between the MAPE of the three different service forecasting approaches is significant at the level of 0.000. Since there is a significant difference among the different service forecasting approaches, we conducted Tukey's HSD post hoc test to determine exactly which means of MAPE are significantly different from which other ones. In terms of MAPE, Tukey's HSD post hoc test grouped the three different service forecasting approaches into three different subsets in the following order: our proposed approach > traditional CBR-based service forecasting approach > the existing forecasting approach used by Company A. Consequently, our empirical experiments show that our proposed approach outperformed the traditional CBR based forecasting model and the existing service forecasting model used by Company A. The rest of this paper is organized as follows. Section 2 provides some research background information such as summary of CBR and SOM. Section 3 presents a hybrid service forecasting framework based on Case-based Reasoning and Self-Organizing Maps, while the empirical evaluation results are summarized in Section 4. Conclusion and future research directions are finally discussed in Section 5.

Major, Trace and Rare Earth Element Geochemistry, and Oxygen-Isotope Systematics of Illite/smectite in the Reindeer D-27 Well, Beaufort-Mackenzie Basin, Arctic Canada (카나다 보포트-맥켄지 분지의 일라이트/스멕타이트의 원소 지화학 및 산소동위원소 연구)

  • Ko, J.;Hesse, R.;Longstaffe, F.J.
    • Economic and Environmental Geology
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    • v.28 no.4
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    • pp.351-367
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    • 1995
  • The elemental geochemistry and oxygen isotopes of illite/smectite (I/S) have been studied in relationship to the mineralogical trend in the Reindeer D-27 well, Beaufort-Mackenzie Basin. The increase in concentrations of $K_2O$, Rb and rare earth elements (REE), the decrease in concentrations of tetrahedral elements such as Mg, Ti, Sc, Zn and Zr, and the increase in concentrations of tetrahedral elements such as Be and V can be related to I/S compositions that vary systematically with depth. Layer formulae of S- and I-layers are estimated as $[Al_{1.57}Fe_{.19}Mg_{.31}Ti_{.07}][Si_{3.84}Al_{.16}]O_{10}(OH)_2$ and $[Al_{1.84}Mg_{.16}][Si_{3.33}Al_{.67}]O_{10}(OH)_2$, respectively. The mobilization of REE appears to occur during illitization. The increase in concentrations of REE, especially La and Ce, with depth is probably linked to incorporation of ions with high valency (e.g. $V^{5+}$) in tetrahedral sites. The excess valency due to V is partly counter-balanced by ions with low valency (e.g. $Be^{2+}$) and, in turn, the local valency deficiency caused by $Be^{2+}$ could be compensated by high-charge interlayer cations such as REE (+3). ${\delta}^{18}O$ values of I/S range from 2.91 to 15.72‰ (SMOW), and increase with depth, contrasting to trends observed in the Gulf Coast and elsewhere. The increase in ${\delta}^{18}O$ of I/S results from the rapid increase in ${\delta}^{18}O$ of pore water that overcomes the decrease in temperature-dependent fractionation values with increasing burial depth (${\delta}^{18}O_{pore\;water}>-d{\Delta}/_{I/S-water};\;d{\delta}^{18}O_{I/S}>0$). Calculated ${\delta}^{18}O$ values of pore water in equilibrium with I/S suggest that the original water was probably meteoric water. The stratification of pore water is postulated from the presence of an isotopically light interval, about 450m thick. The depth range of the isotopically light zone overlaps, but does not coincide with the interval of lowered I-content and $K_2O$ concentrations, suggesting that oxygens may have been exchanged independently of mineralogical and geochemical reactions.

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Crown Shape Control of Pinus koraiensis S. et Z. (VII) - The Influence of Thinning and Stem Pruning on Seed Component(The First Report) - (잣나무의 수형조절(VII) - 잣나무의 간벌과 수형조절이 종자의 성분에 미치는 영향(제1보) -)

  • Song, Jae-Mo;Shim, Tae-Heum;Yi, Jae-Seon
    • Journal of Forest and Environmental Science
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    • v.18 no.1
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    • pp.87-96
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    • 2001
  • In order to investigate the influence of increased seed production of Korean white pine(Pinus koraiensis S. et Z.), component of seeds, produced from trees in the thinned stand and the stem-pruned trees in the seed orchard, were analyzed. The results obtained were as follows: 1. General component analysis of seed There is no significant influence of thinning on the seed component in moisture content (thinned- 4.10%, unthinned- 3.74% ), ash (thinned- 2.95%, unthinned- 2.94%), crude lipid (thinned- 67.62%, unthinned- 71.94%), and crude protein (thinned- 17.27%, unthinned- 17.50%). There is no significant influence of stem-pruning on the seed component in moisture content (unpruned- 4.26%, 1m stem-pruned- 4.10%, and 2m stem-pruned- 3.99%), ash (unpruned- 2.08%, 1m stem-pruned- 2.09%, and 2m stem-pruned- 2.15%) crude lipid(unpruned- 68.59%, 1m stem-pruned- 69.52%, and 2m stem-pruned- 72.53%), and crude protein (unpruned- 18.13%, 1m stem-pruned- 17.96%, and 2m stem-pruned- 17.56%) 2. Fatty acid analysis Seeds of tree from thinned and unthinned stands contained two essential fatty acids, i.e., linoleic acid (18:2) (thinned- 54.92%, unthinned- 55.40%) and linolenic acid (18:3) (thinned- 0.19%, and unthinned- 0.23%). Over 94% of fatty acids consisted of linoleic acid (18:2)(55%), oleic acid (18:1) (32%), and palmitic acid (16:0)(7%). T-test showed difference of content at 1% significance level for palmitoleic acid (16:1), stearic acid (18:0) and 8.11, 14-eicosatrienoic acid (20:3) and at 5% for linolenic acid (18:3), but no significant difference for three major fatty acids mentioned above, between two types of trees. Thus thinning may give no influence in fatty acid content. Seeds of three types of trees contained two essential fatty acids, i.e., linoleic acid (18:2)(unpruned- 55.25%, 1m stem-pruned- 54.74%, and 2m stem-pruned- 55.00%), and linolenic acid (18:3)(0.21% for three kinds of trees). Linoleic acid (18:2)(55%), oleic acid (18:1) (32%), and palmitic acid (16:0)(6%) consisted of more than 93% of all fatty acid content. At 5% significance level in F-test, difference was observed in the content of palmitoleic acid (16:1) and 8.11, 14-eicosatrienoic acid (20:3), but not in three major types of fatty acids above mentioned. It is observed that stem-pruning gave no significant influence in fatty acid content in general.

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Nationwide surveillance of acute interstitial pneumonia in Korea (급성 간질성 폐렴의 전국적 현황 조사)

  • Kim, Byoung-Ju;Kim, Han-A;Song, Young-Hwa;Yu, Jinho;Kim, Seonguk;Park, Seong Jong;Kim, Kyung Won;Kim, Kyu-Earn;Kim, Dong Soo;Park, June Dong;Ahn, Kang Mo;Kim, Hyo-Bin;Jung, Hyang-Min;Kang, Chun;Hong, Soo-Jong
    • Clinical and Experimental Pediatrics
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    • v.52 no.3
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    • pp.324-329
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    • 2009
  • Purpose : Acute interstitial pneumonia (AIP) is a rare disease, but its prognosis is fatal because of lack of efficient treatment modality. Recently, it has been reported that there was epidemic AIP in Korea. This study aims to investigate the past and current status of AIP in Korea. Methods : We performed a nationwide survey and a prospective study. From August 6 to 15, 2008, a questionnaire survey was conducted to identify the prevalence, local distribution, and response to current treatments. The questionnaire was answered by pediatrician working in 23 referral centers in Korea. In addition, 5 referral centers in Seoul performed a preliminary prospective observational study by obtaining clinical data and specimens from appropriate patients. The Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention analyzed the samples for possible pathogens. Results : The survey showed 78 AIP cases had occurred and 36 patients had died. Lung biopsy was performed only on 20 patients. In 2008, 9 AIP cases developed. In a prospective study, 9 (M:F=5:4) patients developed AIP in spring and 7 (78%) died, with the mean rate of death occurring 46 days after diagnosis. Human corona virus 229E, cytomegalovirus, influenza A virus, influenza B virus, and parainfluenza virus were isolated from the respiratory specimens. Conclusion : This study showed nationwide prevalence of AIP in Korea. In addition, because of the high mortality rate and rapid progress, pediatricians need to be aware of the disease. Further studies and a nationwide network are required for reducing the morbidity and mortality rates related to AIP.