• 응용통계연구
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• 제37권2호
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• pp.255-263
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• 2024

GDP는 한 나라의 가계, 기업, 정부 등 모든 경제 주체가 일정 기간 동안 창출한 재화와 서비스의 시장 가치의 합을 나타낸다. GDP를 통하여 국가의 경제 규모를 파악할 수 있으며, 정부의 정책 방향에 영향을 미치는 대표적인 경제 지표이므로 이에 대한 연구가 다양하게 이루어지고 있다. 본 논문에서는 G20 국가들의 주요 거시경제 지표를 활용하여 dynamic factor model 기반의 GDP 성장률 예측 모델을 제시하였다. 추출된 factor를 다양한 회귀분석 방법론과 결합하여 그 결과들을 비교하였으며, 기존의 전통적인 시계열 예측방법인 ARIMA 모델, common component를 이용한 예측 등도 함께 비교하였다. COVID 이후 지표의 변동성이 큰 점을 고려하여 예측 시기를 COVID 전후로 나누었으며, 그 결과 factor에 대해 ridge regression과 lasso regression을 적용하여 예측한 경우 가장 좋은 성능을 나타내었다.

• 한국결정성장학회지
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• 제14권2호
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• pp.47-49
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• 2004

Gate protection $SiN_x$ as an alternative to a conventional re-oxidation process in Dynamic Random Access Memory devices is investigated. This process can not only protect the gate electrode tungsten against oxidation, but also save the thermal budget due to the re-oxidation. The protection $SiN_x$ process is applied to the poly-Si gate, and its device performance is measured and compared with the re-oxidation processed poly-Si gate. The results on the gate dielectric integrity show that etch damage-curing capability of protection $SiN_x$ is comparable to the re-oxidation process. In addition, the hot carrier immunity of the $SiN_x$ deposited gate is superior to that of re-oxidation processed gate.

• International Journal of Automotive Technology
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• 제6권3호
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• pp.229-234
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• 2005

The dynamic crack growth in ductile steel is investigated by means of the impact loaded 3 point bending (3PB) specimens. Results from experiments and numerical simulations are compared to each other. A modified 3PB specimen designed with the reduced width at its ends has been developed in order to avoid the initial compressive loading of the crack tip and also to avoid the uncertain boundary conditions at the impact heads. Numerical simulations of the experiments are made by using a finite element method (FEM) code, ABAQUS. The high speed photography is used to obtain the crack growth and the data of the crack tip opening displacement (CTOD). The direct measurements of the relative rotations of two specimen halves are made by using the Moire interference pattern.

• 한국세라믹학회지
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• 제35권8호
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• pp.850-856
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• 1998

The dynaamic fatigue behavior of alumina ceramics was observed at room temperature using four-point bending method. Dynamic fatigue fracture strength was observed as function of down speed and notch length. The crack growth exponent of the specimens was calculated from the fracture strength and lifetime in dynamic fatigue test. After loading the stresses in the range of 0% to 105% compared with the average in-ert strength the value of residual fracture strength was measured for unnotched and 0.5mm notched speci-mens at the 0.001 and 0.0005 mm/min down speed respectively. After the 95% stress of the average inert strength was applied repeatedly the value of rsidual fracture strength was measured for 0.5mm notched specimens at the 0.001 and 0.0005 mm/min down speed respectively. The material constant A was found to be almost the same and not to depend on the loading mode or the down speed for unnotched and notched specimen. The value of fracture strength with time calculated from the constants n and A was in good agreement with the measured value.

• International Journal of Air-Conditioning and Refrigeration
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• 제12권3호
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• pp.113-122
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• 2004

In case of heat exchangers operating under frosting condition, the thermal resistance and the air-side pressure loss increase with a growth of frost layer. In this paper, a transient characteristic prediction model of the heat transfer for a multi-inverter heat pump with frosting on its surface was presented by taking into account the change of the fin efficiency due to the growth of the frost layer. This dynamic simulation program was developed for a basic air conditioning system composed of an evaporator, a condenser, a compressor, a linear electronic expansion valve, and a bypass circuit. The theoretical model was derived from measured heat transfer and mass transfer coefficients. We also considered that the heat transfer performance was only affected by the decrease of wind flow area. The calculated results were compared with the experimental results for frosting conditions.

• 한국추진공학회지
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• 제25권1호
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• pp.42-49
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• 2021

얼마나 쉽게 연소불안정 해지는지에 대한 척도로서, 작동 안정성 여유를 예측하기 위해 로켓연소기시스템의 열음향 불안정을 검토하였다. 연소기 시스템의 동적거동 특성파악을 위해 연소성능시험 중 측정한 연소기의 동압 데이터를 바탕으로 시간이 지남에 따라 시스템이 안정해지는지를 결정하는 파라미터로서 성장속도 계수를 구하였다. 파라미터 추출은 시계열 압력데이터를 주파수 도메인으로 전환하여 관심모드의 성장속도나 감쇠계수를 도출하는 방법을 우선 검토하였으며, 스토캐스틱 해석의 경우에는 압력진동의 진폭 엔벨롭으로 부터 압력진폭 PDF를 추출했다.

• 자원ㆍ환경경제연구
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• 제28권4호
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• pp.497-526
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• 2019

2015년 파리협정 이후 전세계가 온실가스 감축 의무를 부여받음에 따라 경제성장을 유지하며, 온실가스를 감축하는 '탈동조화(decoupling)'의 중요성이 대두되고 있다. 본 연구는 전 세계 63개 국가를 대상으로 1980년부터 2014년까지의 각 국가별 경제성장과 탄소배출량 사이의 탈동조화 현상의 주요 특징 및 이를 야기하는 원인을 분석하였다. 본 연구에서는 매 5년마다의 탈동조화 정도를 국가별로 측정하였다. 분석 결과, OECD국가 및 소득이 많은 국가들의 탈동조화지수가 높았으며, 2000년대 이후 전세계적으로 탈동조화 현상이 가속화되었음을 확인했다. 다만, 국가 특성에 따라 탈동조화 정도가 상이했다. 동태패널모형을 통해 탈동조화의 원인을 살펴본 결과, 제조업 성장률 및 수출비중은 탈동조화를 저해한 반면, 인적자본 및 신재생에너지 비율은 탈동조화에 긍정적인 영향을 미친 것으로 나타났다. 또한 소득은 탈동조화에 역U자형태의 영향을 미쳤다.

• 농업과학연구
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• 제49권1호
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• pp.61-75
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• 2022

The first purpose of this study is to evaluate the usefulness of pork traceability data, which is monthly time-series data, and to draw implications with regard to its usefulness. The second purpose is to construct a dynamic ecological equation model (DEEM) that reflects the biological characteristics at each growth stage, such as pregnancy, birth and growth, and the slaughter of pigs, using traceability data. With the monthly pig model devised in this study, it is expected that the number of slaughtered animals (supply) that can be shipped in the future is predictable and that policy simulations are possible. However, this study was limited to traceability data and focused only on building a supply-side model. As a result of verifying the traceability data, it was found that approximately 6% of farms produce by mixing great grand parent (GGP), grand parent (GP), parent stock (PS), and artificial insemination (AI), meaning that it is necessary to separate them by business type. However, the analysis also showed that the coefficient values estimated by constructing an equation for each growth stage were consistent with the pig growth outcomes. Also, the model predictive power test was excellent. For this reason, it is judged that the model design and traceability data constructed with the cohort and the dynamic ecological equation model system considering biological growth and shipment times are excellent. Finally, the model constructed in this study is expected to be used as basic data to inform producers in their decision-making activities and to help with governmental policy directions with regard to supply and demand. Research on the demand side is left for future researchers.

• 한국농공학회지
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• 제35권2호
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• pp.73-80
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• 1993

A simplified physiologically-based dynamic model, SIMRIW was selected for predicting the growth and yield of rice. The applicability of the model to the rice cultivars and weather conditions in the Republic of Korea was evaluated. Parameters of the model were calibrated using actual rice yields in Suweon region and an optimization scheme, Constrained Rosenbrock Algorithm. The simulated results from the calibrated model were in good agreement with the field data. The model with parameters calibrated for Suweon was applied to other five regions for the evaluation of transferability, but the simulated results fell short of satisfaction. However, the model is found to be applied to real-time prediction of the growth and yield of rice crop, which is believed to be useful for timely rice crop management, agricultural policy making, and optimal irrigation water management.

• Food Science and Biotechnology
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• 제17권6호
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• pp.1352-1356
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• 2008

Bootstrap method, a computer-intensive statistical technique to estimate the distribution of a statistic was applied to deal with uncertainty and variability of the experimental data in stochastic prediction modeling of microbial growth on a chill-stored food. Three different bootstrapping methods for the curve-fitting to the microbial count data were compared in determining the parameters of Baranyi and Roberts growth model: nonlinear regression to static version function with resampling residuals onto all the experimental microbial count data; static version regression onto mean counts at sampling times; dynamic version fitting of differential equations onto the bootstrapped mean counts. All the methods outputted almost same mean values of the parameters with difference in their distribution. Parameter search according to the dynamic form of differential equations resulted in the largest distribution of the model parameters but produced the confidence interval of the predicted microbial count close to those of nonlinear regression of static equation.