• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.39 no.7 s.168
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• pp.617-626
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• 2006

In this study 3-month SPI data from 59 stations over the Korean peninsula are analyzed by deriving and spatially characterizing the EOFs. Also, the coefficient time series of EOF are applied to the multi-variate time series model to generate the time series of 10,000 years, to average them to estimate the areal average, and to decide the maximum drought severity for given return periods. Finally, the drought prevention ability is evaluated by considering the effective storage of dam within the basin and the size of agricultural area. Especially for the return period of 30 years, only the Han river basin has the potential to overcome the drought. Other river basins like the Youngsan river basin, which has a large portion of agricultural area but less water storage, are found to be very vulnerable to the rainfall-sensitive agricultural drought.

• Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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• v.59 no.1
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• pp.31-43
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• 2017

Recent studies about irrigation water use have focused on agricultural reservoir operation in irrigation period. At the same time, it is significant to store water resource in reservoir during non-irrigation period in order to secure sufficient water in early growing season. In this study, Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5, 8.5 scenarios with the Global Climate Model (GCM) of The Second Generation Earth System Model (CanESM2) were downscaled with bias correlation method. Cumulative precipitation during non-irrigation season, October to March, was analyzed. Interaction between cumulative precipitation and carry-over storage was analyzed with linear regression model for ten study reservoirs. Using the regression model, reservoir drought response ability was evaluated with expression of excess and deficiency. The results showed that future droughts will be more severe than past droughts. Especially in case of non-exceedance probability of 10%, drought in southern region seemed to be serious. Nine study reservoirs showed deficiency range from 10% to 55%, which turned out to be vulnerable for future drought. Only Jang-Chan reservoir was secure for early growing season in spite of drought with deficiency of 8% and -2%. The results of this study represents current agricultural reservoirs have vulnerability for the upcoming drought.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2015.05a
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• pp.225-225
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• 2015

Drought events usually evolve slowly in time and their impacts generally span a long period of time. This indicates that the sequence of drought is not completely random. The Hidden Markov Model (HMM) is a probabilistic model used to represent dependences between invisible hidden states which finally result in observations. Drought characteristics are dependent on the underlying generating mechanism, which can be well modelled by the HMM. This study employed a HMM with Gaussian emissions to fit the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) series and make multi-step prediction to check the drought characteristics in the future. To estimate the parameters of the HMM, we employed a Bayesian model computed via Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). Since the true number of hidden states is unknown, we fit the model with varying number of hidden states and used reversible jump to allow for transdimensional moves between models with different numbers of states. We applied the HMM to several stations SPI data in South Korea. The monthly SPI data from January 1973 to December 2012 was divided into two parts, the first 30-year SPI data (January 1973 to December 2002) was used for model calibration and the last 10-year SPI data (January 2003 to December 2012) for model validation. All the SPI data was preprocessed through the wavelet denoising and applied as the visible output in the HMM. Different lead time (T= 1, 3, 6, 12 months) forecasting performances were compared with conventional forecasting techniques (e.g., ANN and ARMA). Based on statistical evaluation performance, the HMM exhibited significant preferable results compared to conventional models with much larger forecasting skill score (about 0.3-0.6) and lower Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) values (about 0.5-0.9).

• Journal of Korean Society of Rural Planning
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• v.28 no.4
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• pp.93-104
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• 2022

Agriculture is one of the most vulnerable sector to droughts, and drought damage on the agriculture sector could have effects on other sector. Droughts have different characteristics compared to other extreme events, which means more sophisticated methods considering the characteristics of droughts are required when measuring their damage. The purpose of this study is to analyze the damage of droughts based on limited computational general equilibrium model. To be specific, we constructed a CGE model focusing on the agriculture sector in Korea. Also, to limit changes in land use and labor, we limited them, and assume droughts only have effects on productivity of value-added. Lastly, we simulate drought effects on rice production in Korea based on several climate scenarios and GCM to identify the economic effects of droughts. The results show that 1) the cumulated damage of droughts during 2021~2040 is higher than other periods (2040~2061, 2081~2100), 2) the correlation between the damage of droughts and SSP scenarios is insignificant. This result implies the necessity of the effective drought risk management to prevent future droughts effects, irrespective of mitigation policies. 3) Due to increases in rice price, GDP of rice sector is increased. However, GDP of the other sector and consumer welfare are decreased. This result show that indirect effects of droughts would be more important when measuring drought effects on agriculture sector.

• Journal of Forest and Environmental Science
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• v.39 no.4
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• pp.246-253
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• 2023

Salix gracilistyla is widely distributed along riversides in Korea and very good for biomass production by SRC because of its excellent germination ability, but it is necessary to measure drying tolerance for cultivation. The drought tolerance of S. gracilistyla was tested using cuttings, and growth and physiological analysis were performed after irrigation was stopped. The growth inhibition of S. gracilistyla was observed from the day irrigation was stopped, and the soil moisture content decreased to less than 10% on the 25th day after irrigation was stopped. Over 50% of the seedlings turned brown 25 days after watering was stopped. The chlorophyll content of S. gracilistyla decreased dramatically after 25 days of stopping of irrigation. RWC values were unchanged until day 12 after irrigation was stopped but decreased rapidly until day 21, but there was a slightly decreasing trend after that. RWL levels increased slightly during irrigation stops. The proline content of plants subjected to drought stress was 0.91-2.63 mg/0.05 g, 2.75 times higher than that of the control treatment. The sugar content of the drought stress treatment group was 29.77 to 350.66 mg/0.05 g, which increased 12.24 times that of the control treatment. As a result of this study, S. gracilistyla was found to have a drought tolerance almost comparable to that of evergreen broad-leaved trees growing on the land. This study is expected to contribute to the resource utilization S. gracilistyla, a native willow tree of Korea, and the mass production of biomass by SRC.

• Korean Journal of Medicinal Crop Science
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• v.20 no.1
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• pp.36-41
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• 2012

This study was carried out to establish a proper cultivation site and diagnose the drought tolerance of Pleurospermum camtschaticum, Cirsium setidens and Parasenecio firmus leaves by using pressure-volume curves. The result of ${\Psi}_o^{sat}$ and ${\Psi}_o^{tlp}$ were lower in Pleurospermum camtschaticum leaves. On the other hand, it appeared that $E_{max}$ of Pleurospermum camtschaticum was approximately six times higher than that of Parasenecio firmus. The values of $RWC^{tlp}$ is all above 88% showing that the function of osmoregulation is somewhat better, and Vo/DW, Vt/DW, Ns/DW of Pleurospermum camtschaticum leaves were approximately 2~4 times Lower than other ones. Thus, responses to water relations of Pleurospermum camtschaticum, Cirsium setidens and Parasenecio firmus such as ${\Psi}_o^{sat}$, ${\Psi}_o^{tlp}$, $E_{max}$, ${\Psi}_{P,max}$, $RWC^{tlp}$ were shown that the Pleurospermum camtschaticum leave was higher drought tolerance than Cirsium setidens and Parasenecio firmus leaves.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2017.05a
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• pp.149-149
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• 2017

최근 지구온난화에 따른 기후변화로 인하여 전 세계적으로 가뭄, 홍수 등의 극한 기후사상이 발생하고 있다. 그 중 가뭄의 발생은 다른 수문학적 재해와는 다르게 장기간에 걸쳐서 발생하고 그 피해 범위가 광범위하게 나타난다. 또한, 기후변화를 고려한 다양한 기후예측모델의 예측 결과는 가뭄 재해가 앞으로 더 심각해질 수 있다는 전망을 하고 있다는 점에서 그 심각성이 더욱 대두되고 있다. 이러한 가뭄을 효과적으로 감시하고 평가할 수 있는 방안이 필요로 하게 되며, 기존의 가뭄지수(drought index)의 단점을 보완할 수 있는 수단으로 높은 활용성을 갖고 있는 위성영상자료를 활용한 효과적인 가뭄모니터링 기술의 개발이 요구되고 있다. 본 연구에서는 가뭄을 시 공간적으로 모니터링하기 위해서 위성자료를 활용하였으며, Terra/Aqua 위성의 MODIS 영상자료 와 TRMM 및 GPM 위성의 강우자료를 활용하여 가뭄을 감시할 수 있는 가뭄지수 인 VHI(Vegetation Health Index), DSI(Drought Severity Index), Water Balance Method를 산정하였다. 산정된 지수의 정확도를 정량적으로 평가하기 위하여 가뭄 피해조사 결과에 의한 2001년 및 2014-2015년 농업적/수문학적 가뭄피해지역과 위성기반 가뭄지수에 의한 가뭄모니터링 결과 간의 ROC 분석을 통해 위성자료 기반 가뭄감시의 적용 가능성을 평가하였다. 본 연구의 결과를 통하여 위성영상 자료를 통하여 산정되는 가뭄지수의 기상학적/농업적/수문학적 가뭄감시 기능 및 적용성이 정량적으로 평가될 수 있을 것으로 판단된다.

• Economic and Environmental Geology
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• v.54 no.6
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• pp.649-657
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• 2021

This paper aims to study the impact of natural disasters on per capita income in Vietnam both the short and long-term, specifically impact loss of income caused by the extreme drought 2013 for agriculture, forestry and fishery in Phu Yen Province, Central Vietnam. The study valued economic damage by applying the synthetic control method (SCM), which is a statistical method to evaluate the effect of an intervention (e.g. natural disasters) in different case studies. It estimates what would have happened to the treatment group if it had not received the treatment by constructing a weighted combination of control units (e.g. control provinces). The results showed that the 2013 drought caused a decrease in income per capita, mainly in the agriculture, forestry, and fishery sector in Phu Yen. The reduced income was estimated to be VND 160,000 (1 USD = 23,500 VND (2021)) for one person per month, accounting for 11% of total income per capita and continued to affect the income 6 years later. Therefore, authorities need to invest in preventive solutions such as early and accurate warnings to help people to be more proactive in disaster prevention.

• Journal of Ecology and Environment
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• v.41 no.3
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• pp.99-106
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• 2017

Background: Plants over-expressing Arabidopsis ABF3 (abscisic acid-responsive element-binding factor 3) have enhanced tolerance to various environmental stresses, especially drought. Using terminal restriction fragment length polymorphism (T-RFLP) analysis, we compared the rhizosphere-associated structures of microbial communities for transgenic potato containing this gene and conventional "Jopoong" plants. Results: During a 2-year field experiment, fungal richness, evenness, and diversity varied by year, increasing in 2010 when a moderate water deficit occurred. By contrast, the bacterial richness decreased in 2010 while evenness and diversity were similar in both years. No significant difference was observed in any indices for either sampling time or plant line. Although the composition of the microbial communities (defined as T-RF profiles) changed according to year and sampling time, differences were not significant between the transgenic and control plants. Conclusions: The results in this study suggest that the insertion of ABF3 into potato has no detectable (by current T-RFLP technique) effects on rhizosphere communities, and that any possible influences, if any, can be masked by seasonal or yearly variations.

• Proceedings of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers Conference
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• 2004.11a
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• pp.6-6
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• 2004