• Title/Summary/Keyword: Dropout prediction

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A Study of Performance Comparison of MOOC Dropout Prediction utilizing Machine Learning (기계학습 방법을 이용한 MOOC 학습자의 중도 포기 예측 성능 비교 연구)

  • Hur, Yun-A;Lim, Heui-Seok
    • Proceedings of the Korea Information Processing Society Conference
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    • 2016.10a
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    • pp.323-326
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    • 2016
  • 웹 서비스를 기반으로 이루어진 MOOC(Massive Open Online Course)는 대규모 학습자에게 공개된 온라인 교육이다. MOOC는 교수와 학습자 사이 커뮤니티를 통해 상호 참여적으로 수업을 진행한다. 그러나 무료로 강의를 들을 수 있고 성적을 내지 않기 때문에 학습자들에게 큰 동기 부여가 되지 않아 등록하는 학습자는 많지만 수료하는 학습자는 현저히 적게 나타났다. 본 논문은 이러한 문제 해결 방안 마련을 위해 KDD Cup 2015에서 제공한 MOOC 데이터를 통해 중도 포기와 관련된 변수들을 선정하였으며, Decision Tree, KNN, Logistic Regression, Naive Bayesian, SVM, Neural Network인 6가지 머신 러닝 알고리즘을 통해 데이터 예측의 정확률을 확인하였다. 그 결과 Naive Bayesian이 89.3%로 가장 높은 정확률을 보였다. 본 연구를 통해 중도포기를 정확히 예측하며, 향후 학습자들에게 특정 동기부여의 효과로 학습을 수료하는 결과를 기대할 수 있다.

A Study on the Prediction Model for Student Dropout (학생 중도탈락 예측 모델에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, JongHyuk;Kim, DaeHak;Gil, JoonMin
    • Proceedings of the Korea Information Processing Society Conference
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    • 2018.05a
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    • pp.37-40
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    • 2018
  • 빅데이터 산업 부상과 함께 교육 데이터 분석 분야가 새롭게 주목받고 있다. 교육 현장에서 학습 데이터의 양과 종류는 꾸준히 증가하고 있고 이를 분석하기 위한 정보기술도 계속 발전하고 있다. 한편, 학교 교육은 사회적 성취와 밀접한 관련이 있어 사회이동의 중요한 수단이 되는 만큼 학교 교육으로부터 이탈할 위험이 있는 학생들을 조기에 발견하여 이탈을 방지하는 것은 매우 중요하다. 본 논문은 대학생의 중도탈락을 예방하기 위해 로지스틱 회귀분석과 다층 퍼셉트론 기법을 이용해 학습 데이터를 분석하여 예측 모델을 생성하고 해당 모델을 평가한다. 평가 결과, 다층 퍼셉트론 모델이 로지스틱 회귀분석 모델에 비해 정확도와 재현율은 우수하였지만 정밀도는 약간 저조하였다.

A Study on the Accuracy Improvement of One-repetition Maximum based on Deep Neural Network for Physical Exercise

  • Lee, Byung-Hoon;Kim, Myeong-Jin;Kim, Kyung-Seok
    • International journal of advanced smart convergence
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    • v.8 no.2
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    • pp.147-154
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    • 2019
  • In this paper, we conducted a study that utilizes deep learning to calculate appropriate physical exercise information when basic human factors such as sex, age, height, and weight of users come in. To apply deep learning, a method was applied to calculate the amount of fat needed to calculate the amount of one repetition maximum by utilizing the structure of the basic Deep Neural Network. By applying Accuracy improvement methods such as Relu, Weight initialization, and Dropout to existing deep learning structures, we have improved Accuracy to derive a lean body weight that is closer to actual results. In addition, the results were derived by applying a formula for calculating the one repetition maximum load on upper and lower body movements for use in actual physical exercise. If studies continue, such as the way they are applied in this paper, they will be able to suggest effective physical exercise options for different conditions as well as conditions for users.

Analyzing the Impact of Multivariate Inputs on Deep Learning-Based Reservoir Level Prediction and Approaches for Mid to Long-Term Forecasting (다변량 입력이 딥러닝 기반 저수율 예측에 미치는 영향 분석과 중장기 예측 방안)

  • Hyeseung Park;Jongwook Yoon;Hojun Lee;Hyunho Yang
    • The Transactions of the Korea Information Processing Society
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    • v.13 no.4
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    • pp.199-207
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    • 2024
  • Local reservoirs are crucial sources for agricultural water supply, necessitating stable water level management to prepare for extreme climate conditions such as droughts. Water level prediction is significantly influenced by local climate characteristics, such as localized rainfall, as well as seasonal factors including cropping times, making it essential to understand the correlation between input and output data as much as selecting an appropriate prediction model. In this study, extensive multivariate data from over 400 reservoirs in Jeollabuk-do from 1991 to 2022 was utilized to train and validate a water level prediction model that comprehensively reflects the complex hydrological and climatological environmental factors of each reservoir, and to analyze the impact of each input feature on the prediction performance of water levels. Instead of focusing on improvements in water level performance through neural network structures, the study adopts a basic Feedforward Neural Network composed of fully connected layers, batch normalization, dropout, and activation functions, focusing on the correlation between multivariate input data and prediction performance. Additionally, most existing studies only present short-term prediction performance on a daily basis, which is not suitable for practical environments that require medium to long-term predictions, such as 10 days or a month. Therefore, this study measured the water level prediction performance up to one month ahead through a recursive method that uses daily prediction values as the next input. The experiment identified performance changes according to the prediction period and analyzed the impact of each input feature on the overall performance based on an Ablation study.

A Study on the Optimal Setting of Large Uncharged Hole Boring Machine for Reducing Blast-induced Vibration Using Deep Learning (터널 발파 진동 저감을 위한 대구경 무장약공 천공 장비의 최적 세팅조건 산정을 위한 딥러닝 적용에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Min-Seong;Lee, Je-Kyum;Choi, Yo-Hyun;Kim, Seon-Hong;Jeong, Keon-Woong;Kim, Ki-Lim;Lee, Sean Seungwon
    • Explosives and Blasting
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    • v.38 no.4
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    • pp.16-25
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    • 2020
  • Multi-setting smart-investigation of the ground and large uncharged hole boring (MSP) method to reduce the blast-induced vibration in a tunnel excavation is carried out over 50m of long-distance boring in a horizontal direction and thus has been accompanied by deviations in boring alignment because of the heavy and one-directional rotation of the rod. Therefore, the deviation has been adjusted through the boring machine's variable setting rely on the previous construction records and expert's experience. However, the geological characteristics, machine conditions, and inexperienced workers have caused significant deviation from the target alignment. The excessive deviation from the boring target may cause a delay in the construction schedule and economic losses. A deep learning-based prediction model has been developed to discover an ideal initial setting of the MSP machine. Dropout, early stopping, pre-training techniques have been employed to prevent overfitting in the training phase and, significantly improved the prediction results. These results showed the high possibility of developing the model to suggest the boring machine's optimum initial setting. We expect that optimized setting guidelines can be further developed through the continuous addition of the data and the additional consideration of the other factors.

Prediction of Asphalt Pavement Service Life using Deep Learning (딥러닝을 활용한 일반국도 아스팔트포장의 공용수명 예측)

  • Choi, Seunghyun;Do, Myungsik
    • International Journal of Highway Engineering
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    • v.20 no.2
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    • pp.57-65
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    • 2018
  • PURPOSES : The study aims to predict the service life of national highway asphalt pavements through deep learning methods by using maintenance history data of the National Highway Pavement Management System. METHODS : For the configuration of a deep learning network, this study used Tensorflow 1.5, an open source program which has excellent usability among deep learning frameworks. For the analysis, nine variables of cumulative annual average daily traffic, cumulative equivalent single axle loads, maintenance layer, surface, base, subbase, anti-frost layer, structural number of pavement, and region were selected as input data, while service life was chosen to construct the input layer and output layers as output data. Additionally, for scenario analysis, in this study, a model was formed with four different numbers of 1, 2, 4, and 8 hidden layers and a simulation analysis was performed according to the applicability of the over fitting resolution algorithm. RESULTS : The results of the analysis have shown that regardless of the number of hidden layers, when an over fitting resolution algorithm, such as dropout, is applied, the prediction capability is improved as the coefficient of determination ($R^2$) of the test data increases. Furthermore, the result of the sensitivity analysis of the applicability of region variables demonstrates that estimating service life requires sufficient consideration of regional characteristics as $R^2$ had a maximum of between 0.73 and 0.84, when regional variables where taken into consideration. CONCLUSIONS : As a result, this study proposes that it is possible to precisely predict the service life of national highway pavement sections with the consideration of traffic, pavement thickness, and regional factors and concludes that the use of the prediction of service life is fundamental data in decision making within pavement management systems.

Deep learning-based LSTM model for prediction of long-term piezoresistive sensing performance of cement-based sensors incorporating multi-walled carbon nanotube

  • Jang, Daeik;Bang, Jinho;Yoon, H.N.;Seo, Joonho;Jung, Jongwon;Jang, Jeong Gook;Yang, Beomjoo
    • Computers and Concrete
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    • v.30 no.5
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    • pp.301-310
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    • 2022
  • Cement-based sensors have been widely used as structural health monitoring systems, however, their long-term sensing performance have not actively investigated. In this study, a deep learning-based methodology is adopted to predict the long-term piezoresistive properties of cement-based sensors. Samples with different multi-walled carbon nanotube contents (0.1, 0.3, and 0.5 wt.%) are fabricated, and piezoresistive tests are conducted over 10,000 loading cycles to obtain the training data. Time-dependent degradation is predicted using a modified long short-term memory (LSTM) model. The effects of different model variables including the amount of training data, number of epochs, and dropout ratio on the accuracy of predictions are analyzed. Finally, the effectiveness of the proposed approach is evaluated by comparing the predictions for long-term piezoresistive sensing performance with untrained experimental data. A sensitivity of 6% is experimentally examined in the sample containing 0.1 wt.% of MWCNTs, and predictions with accuracy up to 98% are found using the proposed LSTM model. Based on the experimental results, the proposed model is expected to be applied in the structural health monitoring systems to predict their long-term piezoresistice sensing performances during their service life.

The Development of Scales on Rating College Students' Adaptability and the Analysis of Technical Quality (대학적응력 검사도구 척도 개발과 양호도 검증)

  • Kim, Soo-Yoen
    • The Journal of the Institute of Internet, Broadcasting and Communication
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    • v.16 no.6
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    • pp.295-303
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    • 2016
  • The purposes of this study are to describe the process for the instrument construction and the development of scales on rating college students' adaptability and to analyze the technical qualities of the test. The primary goal of this study is to inform students and institutions what is needed to college student's adjustment process into university and college life. The scales are tested by specialty group and statistical methods, and finally composed of 142 items, which measures 8 scales, the academic integration, the social integration into college, career identity, emotional stability, learning condition's stability, relationship with professors, satisfaction degree of educational service, satisfaction degree of college education. This study analyzed 1,959 students' responses from 4 colleges and universities. This study confirms that the scales which this study developed show high concurrent evidence with the college student's adaptability inventory for Korean university and college students based on various development process, specially rapid great change of college. The result of factor analysis shows the evidence based on internal structures of the scales. The Cronbach's ${\alpha}$ of the subscales is .965, from 742 to .937. The prediction model to determine the possibility of dropout by 7 scales is statistically significant in .05, except learning condition's stability. According to CFA Model, RMSEA= .08~.09. dependence factor variance are explained by this study's CFA model. In conclusion, this study confirms that the scales which this study developed are valid and reliable instrument for Korean university and college students to predict their adaptability to college.