• Title/Summary/Keyword: Driving Efficiency

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Improvement of Rotary Tine for Barley Seeder Attached to Rotary Tiller (로우터리 맥류파종기 경운날의 개량시험)

  • 김성래;김문규;김기대;허윤근
    • Journal of Biosystems Engineering
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    • v.4 no.1
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    • pp.1-23
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    • 1979
  • The use of barley seeder attached to rotary tiller in the rural area has a significant meaning not only for the solution of labor peak season, but also for the increase of land utilization efficiency. The facts that presently being used barley seeders are all based on the mechanical principles of the reverse rotation, center drive and are all using forward rotating tine, which is used to be easily and heavily worn out when it rotates reversely, raise problem of recommending them to rural area in Korea. Therefore, the main objective of the study was to develop new type of rotary tine attachable to barley seeders. To attain the objective the following approaches were applied. (1) The kinematic analysis of reverse rotating barley seeders. (2) The studies on the soil bin and artificial soil. (3) The comparative experiment on the power requirement of prototype tine. The results obtained from the studies are summarized as follow: 1. The kinematic analysis of barley seeder attached to rotary tiller: The following results were obtained from the kinematic analysis for deriving general formulae of the motion and velocity characterizing the rotary tine of barley seeders presently being used by farmers. a) The position vector (P) of edge point (P) in the rotary tine of reverse rotating, center drive was obtained by the following formula. $$P=(vt+Rcos wt)i+Rsin wt j+ \{ Rcos \theta r sin \alpha cos (wt- \beta +\theta r) +Rsin \theta r sin \alpha sin (wt-\beta + \theta r) \} lk $$ b) The velocity of edge point $(P^')$ of reverse rotating, center drive rotary tine was obtained by the following formula. $$(P^')=(V-wR sin wt)i+(w\cdot Rcoswt)j + \{ -w\cdot Rcos \theta r\cdot sin \alpha \cdot sin (wt-\beta +\theta r) + w\cdot Rsin \theta r\cdot sin \alpha \cdot cos (wt- \beta + \theta r \} k $$ c) In order to reduce the power requirement of rotary tine, the angle between holder and edge point was desired to be reduced. d) In order to reduce the power requirement, the edge point of rotary tine should be moved from the angle at the begining of cutting to center line of machine, and the additional cutting width should be also reduced. 2. The studies on the soil bin and artificial soil: In order to measure the power requirement of various cutting tines under the same physical condition of soil, the indoor experiments Viere conducted by filling soil bin with artificially made soil similar to the common paddy soil and the results were as follows: a) When the rolling frequencies$(x)$ of the artificial soil were increased, the densIty$(Y)$ was also increased as follows: $$y=1.073200 +0.070780x - 0.002263x^2 (g/cm^3)$$ b) The absolute hardness $(Y)$ of soil had following relationship with the rolling frequencies$(x)$ and were increased as the rolling frequencies were increased. $$Y=37.74 - \frac {0.64 + 0.17x-0. 0054x^2} {(3.36-0.17x + 0.0054x^2)^3} (kg/cm^3)$$ c) The density of soil had significant effect on the cohesion and angle of internal friction of soil. For instance, the soil with density of 1.6 to 1.75 had equivalent density of sandy loam soil with 29.5% of natural soil moisture content. d) The coefficient of kinetiic friction of iron plate on artificial soil was 0.31 to 0.41 and was comparable with that of the natural soil. e) When the pulling speed of soil bin was the 2nd forward speed of power tiller, the rpm of driving shaft of rotary was similar to that of power tiller, soil bin apparatus is indicating the good indoor tester. 3. The comparative experiment on the power requirement of prototype tine of reverse rotating rotary: According to the preliminary test of rotary tine developed with various degrees of angle between holder and edge pcint due to the kinematic analysis, comparative test between prototype rotary tine with $30 ^\circ $ and $10 ^\circ$ of it and presently being used rotary tine was carried out 2nd the results were as follows: a) The total cutting torque was low when the angle between holder and edge point was reduced. b) $\theta r$ (angle between holder and edge point) of rotary tine seemed to be one: of the factors maximizing the increase of torque. c) As the angle between holder and edge point ($\theta r$) of rotary tine was $30 ^\circ $ rather than $45 ^\circ $, the angle of rotation during cutting soil was reduced and the total cutting torque was accordingly reduced about 10%, and the reduction efficiency of total cutting torque was low when the angle between holder and edge point ($\theta r$) of rotary tine was $10 ^\circ $, which indicates that the proper angle between holder and edge point of rotary tine should be larger than $10 ^\circ $ and smaller than $30 ^\circ $ . From above results, it could be concluded that the use of the prototype rotary tine which reduced the angle between holder and edge point to $30 ^\circ $, insted of $45 ^\circ $, is disirable not only decreasing the power requirements, but also increasing the durabie hour of it. Also forward researches are needed, WIlich determine the optimum tilted angle of rotary brocket, and rearrangement of the rotary tine on the rotary boss.

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Effects of Sodium and Gallium on Characteristics of CIGS Thin Films and CdS/CIGS Solar Cells by Co-evaporation Method (Na확산과 Ga첨가에 따른 동시진공증발법으로 제조된 CIGS 박막과 CdS/CIGS 태양전지의 특성)

  • Kwon, S.H.;Lee, J.C.;Kang, K.H.;Kim, S.K.;Yoon, K.H.;Song, J.S.;Lee, D.Y.;Ahn, B.T.
    • Solar Energy
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    • v.20 no.2
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    • pp.43-54
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    • 2000
  • We prepared and characterized $Cu(In_{1-x}Ga_x)Se_2$(CIGS) films using a elemental co-evaporation method for absorbing layer of high efficiency thin film solar cells. The CIGS films deposited on a soda-lime glass exhibited low resistivity because of higher carrier concentration. Na was accumulated at the CIGS surface and the 0 and Se were also accumulated at the surface, suggesting that oxidation is a driving force of Na accumulation. The structure of CIGS film was modified or a secondary phase was formed in the Cu-poor CIGS bulk films probably due to the incorporation of Na into Cu vacancy sites. As the Ga/(In+Ga) ratio increased, the diffraction peaks of $Cu(In_{1-x}Ga_x)Se_2$ films were shifted to larger angle and splitted, and the grain size of $Cu_{0.91}(In_{1-x}Ga_x)Se_2$ films became smaller. All $Cu_{0.91}(In_{1-x}Ga_x)Se_2$ films showed the p-type conductivity regardless of the Ga/(In+Ga) ratio. Ag/n-ZnO/i-ZnO/CdS/$Cu_{0.91}(In_{0.7}Ga_{0.3})Se_2$/Mo solar cells were fabricated. The currently best efficiency in this study was 14.48% for $0.18cm^2$ area ($V_{oc}=581.5mV,\;J_{sc}=34.88mA$, F.F=0.714).

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An Evaluation on the Operating of Fisheries Extension Services (어촌지도사업의 평가)

  • 최정윤
    • The Journal of Fisheries Business Administration
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    • v.17 no.2
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    • pp.65-106
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    • 1986
  • 1, The Purpose of Study This is a study on the Evaluation of the operating of Fisheries Extension Services of Korea, for performing the activities such as guiding fisheries technique as well as offering industrial information to the fishermen in fishing village. By doing so, the Fisheries Extension Sevices(FES) can materialize the continued growth of fisheries, the social and economic development of fishing village, and the increase in income by enhancing the knowledge level of Fishermen, etc. In performing fisheries policy, this activity plays a great role on the research and development activity, and it has become practical since 1976 in Korea. In order to meet immediately with the problem of fisheries technical innovation and rapid environmental changes surrounding the fisheries, the fishermen should not only enhance their scientific and comprehensive capacity in fisheries technique but abtain various effective information. Generally, as most of all the fishemen are poor in the managerial structure and scattered in fishing villages, they have little opportunity in the contact of information. As a result, it is nessessary for the FES to perform the fishing business by the extension service officials who has received special training and acquired fisheries know-how in these fields. And yet, FES is under the unfullfilled circumstance in such factors as manpower, technical know-how, equipment, and the service system etc., which is required in promoting the social, economic development of fishing village and in resolving the high technique demand of fisherman. This study on the fisheries extension services have been studied from those backgrounds. 2. Research Method The data of collecting methods which were necessary in carrying out this study was adopted by the questionaire research on the present extension service activity, through the subject of the extension services (driving agency of the work and the officials), the object(fishemen) and the 3rd observers to the extension services (the authorities concerned). The research sample was taken by the sampling extraction of total 1, 774 men from the above 3 groups. And the research was carried out from August, 1986 to October, 1986, supported from the Fisheries Extension Office (FEO) located in field during the research process. In this study, the levels of the extension operating were determined and estimated in accordance with the extension service method, morale of extension service officials and the extension service system, etc. through the collected data of the research questionaire paper. And based on this result, the essential conditions of the extension services were grasped, and also we tried to present the various activity plan necessary to promote the operating of the extension services. The questionaire research data was calculated by the computer center of National Fisheries University of Pusan, and the total result was again tried on the one demension analysis along with two dimension analysis to search out the relativity between the questionaire, and the statistical test was done $\chi$$^2$test in significance level of l~5%. 3. Contents of Study This study consists of 7 chapters and the contents are as follows : Chapter I : The object and method of the study Chapter II : The assessment and analysis of the extension services Chapter III : The contents and method of the extension services Chapter IV : Analysis of the essential conditions for the extension services Chapter V : The evaluation of activities of extension services Chapter Ⅵ : Conclusion.4. Results and RecommendationTherefore, the results of this study estimated by logical process and analysis are as follows : 1) Most of Korean fishing villages and coastal fishermen have shown much concerns about fisheries technique and social changes, thus many of them were confronted with new problems on how to adapt and to meet changes. 2) Majority of fishermen estimated FEO as an organization of specific technologies with all the thing concerning the fisheries technique in general. Therefore the fishermen wanted to utilize the FEO as an adaptable method for the modern fisheries techniques as well as the environmental changes. 3) In contrast with the fast changes of the fisheries technique, the complexity and variety of technical system and the broadness of fishing village and fishermen, it was revealed that the necessary factors such as the facilities, manpower, budget, and the level of applying techniques of the FEO located in field were highly insufficient. Accordingly, the guiding efficiency was low and the extension services did not provide full solution to the various request from fishermen. 4) It is possible to classify the activation factor for the extension service into two large dimension ; personal dimension relevant to guidance officials and work dimension relevant to the organization. And it was found that the activation level of the work dimension was far lower than the personal dimension between them. So, the activation should be done first in the dimesion to promote the activation of the extension services. 5) The extension services officials are now demoralized in general, thus it is necessary to take reality into consideration : the expense of activity, the adequate endowment of activity scope and the reasonable operation of the position class, etc to enhance its morale. However, in order to do the FES activation, first of all, the systems should be established which is lain unsettled stage until now. And there must be change in the understanding of government i.e. the fisheries extension services are the essential policy subject to build up the base of fisheries growth and modernize the fisheries management. And it should be driven positively with the recognition of the "lasting project".g project".uot;.

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Building battery deterioration prediction model using real field data (머신러닝 기법을 이용한 납축전지 열화 예측 모델 개발)

  • Choi, Keunho;Kim, Gunwoo
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.24 no.2
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    • pp.243-264
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    • 2018
  • Although the worldwide battery market is recently spurring the development of lithium secondary battery, lead acid batteries (rechargeable batteries) which have good-performance and can be reused are consumed in a wide range of industry fields. However, lead-acid batteries have a serious problem in that deterioration of a battery makes progress quickly in the presence of that degradation of only one cell among several cells which is packed in a battery begins. To overcome this problem, previous researches have attempted to identify the mechanism of deterioration of a battery in many ways. However, most of previous researches have used data obtained in a laboratory to analyze the mechanism of deterioration of a battery but not used data obtained in a real world. The usage of real data can increase the feasibility and the applicability of the findings of a research. Therefore, this study aims to develop a model which predicts the battery deterioration using data obtained in real world. To this end, we collected data which presents change of battery state by attaching sensors enabling to monitor the battery condition in real time to dozens of golf carts operated in the real golf field. As a result, total 16,883 samples were obtained. And then, we developed a model which predicts a precursor phenomenon representing deterioration of a battery by analyzing the data collected from the sensors using machine learning techniques. As initial independent variables, we used 1) inbound time of a cart, 2) outbound time of a cart, 3) duration(from outbound time to charge time), 4) charge amount, 5) used amount, 6) charge efficiency, 7) lowest temperature of battery cell 1 to 6, 8) lowest voltage of battery cell 1 to 6, 9) highest voltage of battery cell 1 to 6, 10) voltage of battery cell 1 to 6 at the beginning of operation, 11) voltage of battery cell 1 to 6 at the end of charge, 12) used amount of battery cell 1 to 6 during operation, 13) used amount of battery during operation(Max-Min), 14) duration of battery use, and 15) highest current during operation. Since the values of the independent variables, lowest temperature of battery cell 1 to 6, lowest voltage of battery cell 1 to 6, highest voltage of battery cell 1 to 6, voltage of battery cell 1 to 6 at the beginning of operation, voltage of battery cell 1 to 6 at the end of charge, and used amount of battery cell 1 to 6 during operation are similar to that of each battery cell, we conducted principal component analysis using verimax orthogonal rotation in order to mitigate the multiple collinearity problem. According to the results, we made new variables by averaging the values of independent variables clustered together, and used them as final independent variables instead of origin variables, thereby reducing the dimension. We used decision tree, logistic regression, Bayesian network as algorithms for building prediction models. And also, we built prediction models using the bagging of each of them, the boosting of each of them, and RandomForest. Experimental results show that the prediction model using the bagging of decision tree yields the best accuracy of 89.3923%. This study has some limitations in that the additional variables which affect the deterioration of battery such as weather (temperature, humidity) and driving habits, did not considered, therefore, we would like to consider the them in the future research. However, the battery deterioration prediction model proposed in the present study is expected to enable effective and efficient management of battery used in the real filed by dramatically and to reduce the cost caused by not detecting battery deterioration accordingly.

STUDY ON THE ANCHOVY BOAT SEINE 1. On the Hydrodynamic Resistance and Performance of the Conventional Gear (기선기현강의 연구 1, 재래식 어구의 유구저황과 그물꼴에 관하여)

  • LEE Byoung-gee;YANG Yong-rim;SU Young-tae;SON Boo-il
    • Korean Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences
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    • v.4 no.3_4
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    • pp.79-91
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    • 1971
  • A boat seine has been used as a major fishing gear for catching anchovy (Engraulis japonica) in the southern coastal waters of Korea since 1920s. The original seine was operated by two rowing boats as the haul seine. The rowing boats were, in recent, replaced by powered boats. The net size was enlarged by more than three times the original nit as they began to by operated in the deeper waters of approximately sixty meters. However, there are many problems in the efficiency of the fishing gear to be improved. The authors studied on the hydrodynamic resistance and performance of the boat seine net of the 1/10 scale model in tow. The results are summaried as follows. 1. The hydrodynamic resistance converted from model experiment into the full scale is: $$R_1=30,000\;v^{1.2}\;(0.2{\leqq}v{\leqq}1.0)$$ $$R_2=16,000\;v^2\;(0.2{\leqq}v{\leqq}0.6)$$ where $R_1$ and $R_2$ denote the resistance of whole gear and of bag net in kg respectively, and v the speed of flow in m/sec. 2. In the extension wing, approximately seventy percent of the length of the ground rope from the towing end to the inside-wing slopes down from sea level toward the sea bottom, while the thirty percent of the inside of it remains parallel with th: 5:a level. The performance is regarded to b: inefficient for driving fish shoal into the inside-wing, especially for the shoal diving suddenly. 3. At the towing speed higher than 0.2 m/sec, the trailing edge of the inside-wing is blown backward beyond the seaming line connecting the inside-wing and the mouth of the bag net. It is regarded as an unreasonable performance to drive the fish shoal smoothly into the bag net. 4. At the towing speed higher than 0.2 m/sec, the posterior end of the lower bosom is lifted up above the level of the ground rope of the inside-wing. It is considered that the fish shoal diving suddenly can escape through the discrepancy between the lower bosom and the sea bottom, even if the ground rope of the inside-wing sweeps the sea bottom. 5. The angle of inclination of the upper bosom is estimated as $35\~40^{\circ}$. It seems that the inclination is too steep to drive smoothly the fish shoal diving toward the sea bottom into the bag net. 6. In structure, circumference of the posterior section of the bag net is wider by 1.3 times that of the anterior section. Actually in towing at a speed higher than 0.2m/sec, however, the circumference of the posterior section becomes smaller than that of the anterior section. It is recommended to be designed in a long cylindrical form.

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Investigation of aerodynamic evaluation in female patients undergoing thyroidectomy (갑상선절제술을 받은 여성 환자의 공기역학 검사변수 조사)

  • Kang, Young Ae;Kwon, In Sun;Won, Ho-Ryun;Chang, Jae Won;Koo, Bon Seok
    • Phonetics and Speech Sciences
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    • v.12 no.2
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    • pp.73-80
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    • 2020
  • Breathing is the voice's driving force and also acts as a regulator of larynx function and efficiency. Respiratory distress is a side effect of general anesthesia in thyroid surgery. Therefore, this study's objective was to provide practical and complementary information for voice recovery after thyroid surgery, based on aerodynamic evaluation pre- and post-thyroidectomy. From May 2014 to July 2015, aerodynamic evaluations were performed on 34 female patients diagnosed with thyroid papillary cancer one week before surgery (PRE), one month after surgery (P1), and three months after surgery (P3). The Phonatory Aerodynamic System (model 6600, KayPENTAX, USA) was employed for this purpose, and a total of 29 analysis parameters were selected. The results showed statistically significant differences in peak expiratory airflow (p=0.004), mean pitch (p<0.01), expiration airflow duration (p=0.001), and expiratory volume (p=0.018), based on time factors. In the comparison of time factors, peak expiratory airflow and mean pitch parameters were different in PRE-P1 and PRE-P3. Expiration airflow duration and expiratory volume parameters were different in PRE-P3 and P1-P3. The interaction effect of time and surgical range was significant only for expiratory volume (p=0.024). Female patients who undergo thyroidectomy require post-operative breathing training, and exhalation improvement is considered to reflect a positive lifestyle after surgery.

The Efficiency of Bank Underwriting of Corporate Securities in Korea (국내 자본시장 증권인수기능의 효율성에 관한 연구 : 은행계열과 비은행계열 금융기관 비교 분석)

  • Baek, Jae-Seung;Lim, Chan-Woo
    • The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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    • v.27 no.1
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    • pp.181-208
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    • 2010
  • In July 2007, Korean government has passed "The Capital Market and Financial Investment Services Act" to further develop the capital markets and the Act was to become effective in February 2009. Using a large sample of Korean firms, we have examined (i) the effect of underwriting activities on the firm value (bond spread) comparing commercial bank and investment bank, and (ii) the determinants of the firm value changes following underwriting activities of bank. To test our goal, we collected a wide range of samples of data for bond issuing activities executed by Korean firms listed on the Korea Stock Exchange (KSE) between 2000 and 2003. Our paper is distinguished from previous studies on this subject in a way that we analyzed the effect of corporate bond underwriting activities with regard to commercial banking and investment banking. Initially, we set up a hypothesis that "Certification View" and "Conflict-of-interest View" are major driving forces behind cross-firm differences in performance following bond issuance. We find that, in general, underwriting by investment bank (securities company) brings a positive effect on the firm value (spread between bench mark rate and bond issuing rate). This result indicates that firm value has been negatively affected by the bank underwriting and provides the evidence for "Conflict-of-interest View" in Korea. Our studies have also revealed that any change in firm value following bond issuance is positively related with the firm size (total asset), operating performance, liquidity (cashflow), and equity ownership by foreign investors. Overall, our results support the view that bank underwriting activities can play an important role in determining firm value and financial strategies under "The Capital Market and Financial Investment Services Act" of 2007.

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Development of the Model for Total Quality Management and Cost of Quality using Activity Based Costing in the Hospital (병원의 활동기준원가를 이용한 총체적 질관리 모형 및 질비용 산출 모형 개발)

  • 조우현;전기홍;이해종;박은철;김병조;김보경;이상규
    • Health Policy and Management
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    • v.11 no.2
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    • pp.141-168
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    • 2001
  • Healthcare service organizations can apply the cost of quality(COQ) model as a method to evaluate a service quality improvement project such as Total Quality Management (TQM). COQ model has been used to quantify and evaluate the efficiency and effectiveness of TQM project through estimation between cost and benefit in intervention for a quality Improvement to provide satisfied services for a customer, and to identify a non value added process. For estimating cost of quality, We used activities and activity costs based on Activity Based Costing(ABC) system. These procedures let the researchers know whether the process is value-added by each activity, and identify a process to require improvement in TQM project. Through the series of procedures, health care organizations are service organizations can identify a problem in their quality improvement programs, solve the problem, and improve their quality of care for their costumers with optimized cost. The study subject was a quality improvement program of the department of radiology department in a hospital with n bed sizes in Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA). The principal source of data for developing the COQ model was total cases of retaking shots for diagnoses during five months period from December of the 1998 to April of the 1999 in the department. First of the procedures, for estimating activity based cost of the department of diagnostic radiology, the researchers analyzed total department health insurance claims to identify activities and activity costs using one year period health insurance claims from September of the 1998 to August of the 1999. COQ model in this study applied Simpson & Multher's COQ(SM's COQ) model, and SM's COQ model divided cost of quality into failure cost with external and internal failure cost, and evaluation/prevention cost. The researchers identified contents for cost of quality, defined activities and activity costs for each content with the SM's COQ model, and finally made the formula for estimating activity costs relating to implementing service quality improvement program. The results from the formula for estimating cost of quality were following: 1. The reasons for retaking shots were largely classified into technique, appliances, patients, quality management, non-appliances, doctors, and unclassified. These classifications by reasons were allocated into each office doing re-taking shots. Therefore, total retaking shots categorized by reasons and offices, the researchers identified internal and external failure costs based on these categories. 2. The researchers have developed cost of quality (COQ) model, identified activities by content for cost of quality, assessed activity driving factors and activity contribution rate, and calculated total cost by each content for cost for quality, except for activity cost. 3. According to estimation of cost of quality for retaking shots in department of diagnostic radiology, the failure cost was ₩35,880, evaluation/preventive cost was ₩72,521, two times as much as failure cost. The proportion between internal failure cost and external failure cost in failure cost is similar. The study cannot identify trends on input cost and quality improving in cost of qualify over the time, because the study employs cross-sectional design. Even with this limitation, results of this study are much meaningful. This study shows possibility to evaluate value on the process of TQM subjects using activities and activity costs by ABC system, and this study can objectively evaluate quality improvement program through quantitative comparing input costs with marginal benefits in quality improvement.

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Basic Study for Selection of Factors Constituents of User Satisfaction for Micro Electric Vehicles (초소형전기차 사용자만족도 구성요인 선정을 위한 기반연구)

  • Jin, Eunju;Seo, Imki;Kim, Jongmin;Park, Jejin
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.41 no.5
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    • pp.581-589
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    • 2021
  • With the recent increase in the introduction of micro-electric vehicles in Korea, interest in micro-electric vehicle user satisfaction is increasing to revitalize related markets. In this paper, a basic study was conducted on the development of public services using micro-electric vehicle based on the constituent factors of user satisfaction. The survey includes: ① 'Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) for selecting the priority factors of user satisfaction of micro-electric vehicles', ② 'A survey of micro-electric vehicles image' to collect data in advance for providing users' preferences and transportation services for micro-electric vehicles, ③ In order to investigate the user satisfaction level of users who actually operated micro-electric vehicles, the order of 'user satisfaction survey of micro-electric vehicle drivers' was conducted. In the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) analysis, it was found that users regarded as important in the order of 'user utilization data', 'vehicle movement data', and 'charging service data'. In the micro-electric vehicle image survey, users perceived micro-electric vehicles more positively in terms of "safety", 'durability', 'Ride comfort', 'design', 'MOOE (Maintenance and other operating expense)', and 'environment-friendly' when comparing micro-electric vehicles with electric motorcycles. In the survey on the user satisfaction of micro-electric vehicle drivers, the use of micro-electric vehicle did not directly affect work performance efficiency, and there was an experience of being disadvantaged on the road due to the size of the micro-electric vehicle, and driving in a cluster of micro-electric vehicle for outdoor advertisements. The city's public relations effect was great, but it was concerned about safety. In the future, based on the results of this study, we plan to build a user satisfaction structural equation model, preemptively discover feedback R&D for micro-electric vehicle utilization services in the public field, and actively seek to discover new public mobility support services.

Development of the forecasting model for import volume by item of major countries based on economic, industrial structural and cultural factors: Focusing on the cultural factors of Korea (경제적, 산업구조적, 문화적 요인을 기반으로 한 주요 국가의 한국 품목별 수입액 예측 모형 개발: 한국의, 한국에 대한 문화적 요인을 중심으로)

  • Jun, Seung-pyo;Seo, Bong-Goon;Park, Do-Hyung
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.27 no.4
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    • pp.23-48
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    • 2021
  • The Korean economy has achieved continuous economic growth for the past several decades thanks to the government's export strategy policy. This increase in exports is playing a leading role in driving Korea's economic growth by improving economic efficiency, creating jobs, and promoting technology development. Traditionally, the main factors affecting Korea's exports can be found from two perspectives: economic factors and industrial structural factors. First, economic factors are related to exchange rates and global economic fluctuations. The impact of the exchange rate on Korea's exports depends on the exchange rate level and exchange rate volatility. Global economic fluctuations affect global import demand, which is an absolute factor influencing Korea's exports. Second, industrial structural factors are unique characteristics that occur depending on industries or products, such as slow international division of labor, increased domestic substitution of certain imported goods by China, and changes in overseas production patterns of major export industries. Looking at the most recent studies related to global exchanges, several literatures show the importance of cultural aspects as well as economic and industrial structural factors. Therefore, this study attempted to develop a forecasting model by considering cultural factors along with economic and industrial structural factors in calculating the import volume of each country from Korea. In particular, this study approaches the influence of cultural factors on imports of Korean products from the perspective of PUSH-PULL framework. The PUSH dimension is a perspective that Korea develops and actively promotes its own brand and can be defined as the degree of interest in each country for Korean brands represented by K-POP, K-FOOD, and K-CULTURE. In addition, the PULL dimension is a perspective centered on the cultural and psychological characteristics of the people of each country. This can be defined as how much they are inclined to accept Korean Flow as each country's cultural code represented by the country's governance system, masculinity, risk avoidance, and short-term/long-term orientation. The unique feature of this study is that the proposed final prediction model can be selected based on Design Principles. The design principles we presented are as follows. 1) A model was developed to reflect interest in Korea and cultural characteristics through newly added data sources. 2) It was designed in a practical and convenient way so that the forecast value can be immediately recalled by inputting changes in economic factors, item code and country code. 3) In order to derive theoretically meaningful results, an algorithm was selected that can interpret the relationship between the input and the target variable. This study can suggest meaningful implications from the technical, economic and policy aspects, and is expected to make a meaningful contribution to the export support strategies of small and medium-sized enterprises by using the import forecasting model.