• Title/Summary/Keyword: Down markets

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Estimation of Volatility among the Stock Markets in ASIA using MRS-GARCH model (MRS-GARCH를 이용한 아시아 주식시장 간의 변동성 추정)

  • Lee, Kyung-Hee;Kim, Kyung-Soo
    • Management & Information Systems Review
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    • v.38 no.1
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    • pp.181-199
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    • 2019
  • The purpose of this study is to examine whether or not the volatility of the 1997~1998 Asian crisis still affects the monthly stock returns of Korea, Japan, Singapore, Hong Kong and China from 1980 to 2018. This study investigated whether the volatility has already fallen to pre-crisis levels. To illustrate the possible structural changes in the unconditioned variance due to the Asian financial crisis, we use the MRS-GARCH model, which is a regime switching model. The main results of this study were as follows: First, the stock return of each country was weak in the high volatility regime except Japan resulted by the Asian financial crisis from 1997 to 1998 until March 2018, and the Asian stock market has not yet calmed down except for the global financial crisis period of 2007 and 2008. Second, the conditional volatility has been significantly and persistently decreased and eliminated after the Asian financial crisis. Thus, we could be judged that the Asian stock market was not fully recovered(stable) due to the Asian crisis including the capital liberalization high inflation, worsening current account deficit, overseas low interest rates and expansion of credit growth in 1997 and 1998, but the Asian stock market was largely settled down, except for the 2007 and 2008 in Global financial crises. Considering the similarity between the Asian stock markets and the similar correlation of the regime switching, it may be worthwhile to analyze the MRS-GARCH model.

A Building of Investment Decision Model for Improving Profitabilty of Tramper Shipping Business (해운산업 수익성 제고 투자의사결정 모델구축에 관한 연구 - 부정기선 영업을 중심으로 -)

  • Kim, Weon-Jae
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.27 no.2
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    • pp.297-311
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    • 2011
  • This paper deals with a strategic investment decision model for improving investment profit in shipping industry. Despite the quantitative expansion of Korean shipping business, many shipping firms have suffered financial difficulties due to financial and operating risks that result from the characteristics of capital-intensive business as well as of volatility of shipping markets. As a result, managers in charge of making an investment decision, particularly in tramper business sector, are required to take both financial and operating risk factors into consideration. Put it differently, managers are strongly recommended to avoid these risks by ship asset play; buy-low and sell-high, which results in considerable capital gain and cost reduction. In addition, managers in shipping industry are also recommended to consider the ship chartering investment alternative when the freight markets show extreme volatility as the case of 2008 triggered by sub-prime mortgage financial crisis in USA. For example, the BDI suffered plunging down from 1000 in 2008 to 100 in 2010. Consequently, the 4th largest shipping company in Korea, DAEHAN Shipping Co., has collapsed primarily due to excessive tonnage expansion during the peak time of bulk market. In sum, the strategic investment decision model, suggested in this paper, is designed to include such factors as capital gain by asset play, timely chartering for alternative shipping service, and optimization of operating profit by tonnage adjustment in accordance with change in the shipping markets concerned.

The Rationalization of Distribution Structure in Diamond Market and Study on Diamond Grading System In Korea (다이아몬드의 유통구조와 국내감정 현황에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Sang-Ki
    • Journal of Distribution Science
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    • v.14 no.4
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    • pp.103-110
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    • 2016
  • Purpose - This study investigates the improvement of rationalization of distribution structure in Korean diamond market. It also explores the international distribution of diamond and how the distribution of Korean diamond market system was improved. This study also for providing the evaluation method in case of purchasing diamond on the consumers. Research Design, Data, and Methodology - The research investigates how international diamond distribution market has been changed since 1933 by De Beers. The international Diamond rough stone has been deregulated in supply and demand by Debeers since July, 2000, therefore, the price maintenance policy of diamond market also has been changed. In the short term, the diamond price in market has been down, whereas, in the long term, the market share of Debeers has affected the high quality of diamond price in world market. Before 1985, both G color and VVS1 clarity were used as the level of percentages in the diamond certificate of authenticity in Korea. But, after 1985, the diamond certificate of authenticity uses Diamond Grading Report. Results - Between the 1970's and 1980's, Debeers had controlled about 80 percentages of international diamond supply market. But, Debeers share in diamond market fell by 60 percentages in 2000's. Debeers supplied 31%(4390 carets) of international diamond supply and 41%(39 billion dollars) in 2003. However, Debeers shares 50% of market shares in the diamond supply market by Alosa in Russia. In Korea, the diamond grading report system has been used since 1985. But, the diamond grading report system has price bubbles and much irrational parts in grading system methods. Conclusions - 4C, the grading system of diamond, is a method for comparing and evaluating diamond objectively. Diamond is graded according to its color, cut, clarity, and carat. The price of diamond is determined based on its each item. Consumers purchase diamond for the purpose of investment and wearing. In terms of investment, it is recommended to purchase diamond with color of D grade, cut with Excellent or Very Good Cut grade, Clarity of FL or IF, and more than 3 carat. As for wearing purpose, it is highly recommended for diamond to have color of F or G grade, cut of Excellent or Very Good Cut, clarity of VS2 or SI1, and more than 1 carat Before 2000, Central Selling Organization(CSO) distributed about 80 percentages rough diamond to world market exclusively by purchase, classification, assessment, and sales. After 2000, Dbeers diamond company looses slowly market shares, while Almosa diamond company etc. in Russia are taking over world market shares more and more. Debeers market shares have been falling over the years, and the international diamond markets are gradually growing by other international diamond companies. But, there is no change in Korean diamond market after 1980's. Korean diamond distribution needs to follow international level of Diamond Grading System. By using different grading systems with different panel members, Korean diamond grading system needs to follow international perfect grading systems to grow diamond markets and maintain within top 10 diamond markets countries.

Carbon Fibers(III): Recent Technical and Patent Trends

  • Seo, Min-Kang;Park, Sang-Hee;Kang, Shin-Jae;Park, Soo-Jin
    • Carbon letters
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    • v.10 no.1
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    • pp.43-51
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    • 2009
  • Carbon fibers are a new breed of high-strength materials. The existence of carbon fiber came into being in 1879 when Edison took out a patent for the manufacture of carbon filaments suitable for use in electric lamps. However, it was in the early 1960s when successful commercial production was started, as the requirements of the aerospace industry for better and lightweight materials became of paramount importance. In recent decades, carbon fibers have found wide applications in commercial and civilian aircraft, along with recreational, industrial, and transportation markets as the price of carbon fiber has come down and technologies have matured. The market for carbon fiber has experienced a good growth in recent years. The growth rate for the last 23years was about 12%. The article reviewed 9,641 Korea, U.S., Japan, Europe patents issued in the carbon fibers in order to offer additional insight for researchers and companies seeking to navigate carbon fiber patent landscape. This article will provide you with all the valuable information and tools you will need to investigate your study successfully within the carbon fiber field. This article also will save you hundreds of hours of your own personal research time and will significantly benefit you in expanding your business in the carbon fiber market.

Electricity Price Prediction Based on Semi-Supervised Learning and Neural Network Algorithms (준지도 학습 및 신경망 알고리즘을 이용한 전기가격 예측)

  • Kim, Hang Seok;Shin, Hyun Jung
    • Journal of Korean Institute of Industrial Engineers
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    • v.39 no.1
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    • pp.30-45
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    • 2013
  • Predicting monthly electricity price has been a significant factor of decision-making for plant resource management, fuel purchase plan, plans to plant, operating plan budget, and so on. In this paper, we propose a sophisticated prediction model in terms of the technique of modeling and the variety of the collected variables. The proposed model hybridizes the semi-supervised learning and the artificial neural network algorithms. The former is the most recent and a spotlighted algorithm in data mining and machine learning fields, and the latter is known as one of the well-established algorithms in the fields. Diverse economic/financial indexes such as the crude oil prices, LNG prices, exchange rates, composite indexes of representative global stock markets, etc. are collected and used for the semi-supervised learning which predicts the up-down movement of the price. Whereas various climatic indexes such as temperature, rainfall, sunlight, air pressure, etc, are used for the artificial neural network which predicts the real-values of the price. The resulting values are hybridized in the proposed model. The excellency of the model was empirically verified with the monthly data of electricity price provided by the Korea Energy Economics Institute.

A Study on forming strategies to make inroads into the market of Dae-gu apartment buildings by researching and analyzing the preferences of the local residents (아파트 브랜드 이미지 선호 분석을 통한 건설사의 지방 시장 진출 전략 방안에 관한 연구)

  • Choi, Jung-Won;Lee, Hyo-Chang;Lim, Bo-Lyun;Ha, Mi-Kyoung
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Interior Design Conference
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    • 2006.05a
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    • pp.179-182
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    • 2006
  • Since the middle of 1990's, domestic apartment building suppliers have set up brand images to overcome the difficulties in financial situation after IMF foreign exchange crisis. The main trends in recent apartment buildings could be classified generally into several types, such as 'Ubiquitous Intelligent(standing for High-tech)', 'Walkable Community(community-friendly)', 'Eco-friendly', 'Ergonomic Humanity(Human Engineering)', 'e-easy Home through Internet(Digital Home)'. With those brand images, construction enterprises have been making inroads into local apartment markets, especially one of the region around Dae-gu. It is meaningful and worth researching and analyzing the local residents' preferences and tendencies to form marketing strategies of brand images. Here, this research and analysis is of pre-examination before getting down the study of this subject.

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Study of Developing Multi-Function High-chair Using Eco-Friendly Material (친환경 소재를 이용한 유아용 다기능 식탁의자 개발 연구)

  • Baik, Eun
    • Journal of the Korea Furniture Society
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    • v.27 no.4
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    • pp.271-279
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    • 2016
  • In the modern society, social activities of married women are increasing along with the economic growth, which leads to low birth rates of the situation where most people give birth to only one or two children. Korea in particular records one of the lowest birth rates among many other nations of the world. Despite the situation where overall industrial consumer economy is not good, baby goods market is becoming more luxurious and diversified, and its scale is also growing. Desires of young parents in their 20s and 30s for their children leads to consumption desires of luxurious baby goods, and despite the fact that their taste level rises by easily gaining access to immense baby information via the Internet, our nation's baby furniture market is unreasonably lacking the ability to satisfy the needs of such consumers. Furniture culture of our nation today is based on the stand-up culture of the West. However, analyzing the life culture inside our homes, stand-up and sit-down cultures of the West and the East are coexisting complexly. Such life pattern can be more easily found in households with babies. As such, baby furniture that satisfies our unique life culture and has quality, design and price competitiveness is desperately needed. In such market state, this study is expected to make economic and cultural accomplishments by focusing on the newly embossing baby furniture market and developing products, delivering them to consumers to open new markets and developing into an industry.

Development of Direct Seeded Rice Cultivation in the Future (벼 직파재배(直播栽培)의 기술적(技術的) 발전(發展) 방향(方向))

  • Park, Seok-Hong;Lee, Chul-Won
    • Korean Journal of Weed Science
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    • v.12 no.3
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    • pp.292-308
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    • 1992
  • Recently agricultural situations are being placed in unfavourable socio-economic environment as followed by rapid decrease of rural population, poor labor quality and high wages of rural society due to high speedy industrialization of social structure in Korea. In addition to those circumstances, under the UR system to be expected in the early future, free trade of agricultural products will be faced inevitably in Korea. Practically prices of rice as a principle food in this country are expensive about three times compared to those of foreign rice markets, and so how to increase the international competitiveness and food supplies are important problems to be solved rapidly. Accordingly an urgent goal is reduction of agricultural production cost by the improvement of labour productivity as a labour saving and cost down cultivation methods as the direct seeding cultivation in rice. But there are many problems in the direct seeded rice cultivation. The important things to be improved in that cultivation are development of rice varieties with lodging tolerance, effective seedling stand, weed control, irrigation management and fertilizing and so on. Moreover agricultural basis as irrigation facilities, land consolidation and farm machineries must be improved for the stability of rice cultivation in the future.

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The Trend and forecast of Civil Aircraft market (세계 민간 항공기 시장 동향과 전망)

  • Chang, Tae-Jin
    • Current Industrial and Technological Trends in Aerospace
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    • v.8 no.1
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    • pp.12-22
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    • 2010
  • The great recession which caused by financial crisis made steep rise of oil price and the serious problems of the aircraft industry. High oil price increases operating cost and the recession decreases air traffic. After a period of high book order and delivery from global economic recovery, the aircraft order fell down suddenly. Also the Aircraft price and lease rate deceased and the MRO market is reduced, too. But, the air cargo and passenger increase again since late of 2009. So, it is difficult to predict the market movement, most of the forecasters agreed that the air traffic and aircraft demand will grow gradually in long term with the growth of emerging markets like China, India and Africa. And more efficient, safe and clean aircraft is needed and will need in the market.

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The Development of China′a Marin Fisheries and Reorganization of Region Fisheries in the East China Sea (동중국해에서 중국 해면어로어업의 전개와 지역어업의 재편)

  • 김대영
    • The Journal of Fisheries Business Administration
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    • v.31 no.2
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    • pp.27-45
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    • 2000
  • This study discusses the development structure of China's Marine Fisheries in the East China Sea. China's marine fisheries have developed since the 1980s along with it's economic expansion. The total catch in the East China Sea has increased especially during the 1990s. The Chinese fishery has developed remarkably through individual management, expansion of their fishing grounds from inshore to off-shore, and increase of the catch in both pelagic and bottom species. In other words, the trawl fishery in China has led to higher production. We can say that the progress in Chinese fisheries is the result of their expansion policy. Their boats have been coming closer and closer to the Japanese and Korea fishing grounds during the 1990s. Chinese fisheries is exploiting the low cost and thus strengthening its quantity. Based on rising fish price, expanding domestic fish markets as well as expels, China is enjoying the high income. However, in trawl fishery, productivity is stagnant and profit is going down due to the rising cost. In accordance with the new 200 mile EEZ system in the East China Sea, China's fisheries will be restricted mostly by the new regulation which requires the reduction of fishing efforts and the application of resource management.

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