• 한국항공운항학회지
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• 제20권1호
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• pp.66-75
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• 2012

The purpose of this study is to analyze the effect of intervention variables which may affect the air travel demand for Jeju domestic flights and to anticipate the air travel demand for Jeju domestic flights. The air travel demand forecasts for Jeju domestic flights are conducted through ARIMA-Intervention Model selecting five intervention variables such as 2002 World Cup games, SARS, novel swine-origin influenza A, Yeonpyeongdo bombardment and Japan big earthquake. The result revealed that the risk factor such as the threat of war that is a negative intervention incident and occurred in Korea has the negative impact on the air travel demand due to the response of risk aversion by users. However, when local natural disasters (earthquakes, etc) occurring in neighboring courtiers and global outbreak of an epidemic gave the negligible impact to Korea, negative intervention incident would have a positive impact on air travel demand as a response to find alternative due to rational expectation of air travel customers. Also we realize that a mega-event such as the 2002 Korea-Japan World Cup games reduced the air travel demand in a short-term period unlike the perception in which it will increase the air travel demand and travel demands in the corresponding area.

• 한국항공운항학회지
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• 제21권4호
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• pp.77-89
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• 2013

The purpose of this study is to anticipate the air travel demands over the period of 164 months, from January 1997 to August 2010 using ARIMA-Intervention modeling on the selected sample data. The sample data is composed of the number of the passengers who in the domestic route for Jeju route. In the analysis work of this study, the past events which are assumed to have affected the demands for the air travel routes to Jeju in different periods were used as the intervention variables. The impacts of such variables were reflected in the presupposed demand. The intervention variables used in this study are, respectively, the World Cup event in 2002 (from May to June), 2003 SARS outbreak (from April to May), Tsunami in January 2005, and the influenza outbreak from October to December 2009. The result of the above mentioned analysis revealed that the negative intervention events, like a global outbreak of an epidemic did have negative impact on the air travel demands in a risk aversion by the users of the aviation services. However, in case of the negative intervention events in limited area, where there are possible substituting destinations for the tourists, the impact was positive in terms of the air travel demands for substituting destinations due to the rational expectation of the users as they searched for other options. Also in this study, it was discovered that there is not a binding correlation between a nation wide mega-event, such as the World Cup games in 2002, and the increased air travel demands over a short-term period.