• Title/Summary/Keyword: Distribution of Risk Information

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Risk Management Functions and Audit Report Lag among Listed Saudi Manufacturing Companies

  • OMER, Waddah Kamal Hassan;ALJAAIDI, Khaled Salmen;AL-MOATAZ, Ehsan Saleh
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.7 no.8
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    • pp.61-67
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    • 2020
  • This paper examines whether the combination of risk management and audit committee functions are associated with audit report lag. Audit report lag is considered an important aspect of the financial reporting. The financial reports are the main source of information for shareholders through which they make their decisions and it assists in reducing the information asymmetry. As the internal control mechanisms substitute the external ones, the internal board committees formed by the board of directors can reduce the audit work and, consequently, reduces the audit report lag. A key committee is the risk management committee. This paper examines whether the combination of risk management and audit committee functions are associated with audit report lag. We posit that a combination of such functions in one committee refereed as audit committee affects the audit report delay. Data were obtained from 198 manufacturing companies listed on the Saudi Stock Exchange (Tadawul) for the years 2016-2018. A pooled OLS regression analysis shows that a combination of risk management and audit committee functions in a stand-alone committee named "audit committee" is associated with longer audit report lag. The outcomes suggest companies should prioritize the establishment of standalone risk management committee with activities separated from those of audit committees.

Capital Structure and Default Risk: Evidence from Korean Stock Market

  • GUL, Sehrish;CHO, Hyun-Rae
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.6 no.2
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    • pp.15-24
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    • 2019
  • This study analyzes the effect of the capital structure of Korean manufacturing firms on default risk based on Moody's KMV option pricing model where the probability of default is obtained by measuring the distance to default as a covariant in logit model developed by Merton (1974). Based on the panel data of manufacturing firms, this study achieves its primary objective, using a fixed effect regression model and examines the effect of a firm's capital structure on default risk amongst publicly listed firms on Korea exchange during 2005-2016. Empirical results obtained suggest that the rise in short-term debt to assets leads to increase the risk of default whereas the increase in long-term debt to assets leads to decrease the default risk. The benefits of short-term debt financing over a short-term period fade out in the presence of information asymmetry. However, long-term debt financing overcomes the information asymmetry and enjoys the paybacks of tax advantage associated with long-term debt. Additionally, size, tangibility and interest coverage ratio are also the important determinants of default risk. Findings support the trade-off theory of capital structure and recommend the optimal use of long-term debt in a firm's capital structure.

An Estimation of VaR under Price Limits

  • Park, Yun-Sook;Yeo, In-Kwon
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.15 no.4
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    • pp.825-835
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    • 2004
  • In this paper, we investigate the estimation of the value at risk(VaR) when stock prices are subjected to price limits. The mixture of probability mass functions and beta density functions is proposed to derive the distribution of asset returns. The analyses of real data show that the proposed distribution is appropriate to explain the VaR when the price limits exist in the data.

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Bayesian analysis of insurance risk model with parameter uncertainty (베이지안 접근법과 모수불확실성을 반영한 보험위험 측정 모형)

  • Cho, Jaerin;Ji, Hyesu;Lee, Hangsuck
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.27 no.1
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    • pp.9-18
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    • 2016
  • In the Heckman-Meyers model, which is frequently referred by IAA, Swiss Solvency Test, EU Solvency II, the assumption of parameter distribution is key factor. While in theory Bayesian analysis somewhat reflects parameter uncertainty using prior distribution, it is often the case where both Heckman-Meyers and Bayesian are necessary to better manage the parameter uncertainty. Therefore, this paper proposes the use of Bayesian H-M CRM, a combination of Heckman-Meyers model and Bayesian, and analyzes its efficiency.

Development of Efficient Risk Analysis and Productivity Improvement System in Interface Communication Environment (인터페이스 통신 기반 개발 환경에서의 효율적인 위험도 분석 및 생산성 향상 시스템 개발)

  • Song, TaeIll;Hong, ChoongSeon;Kim, KyeongSu;Choi, HongSuk;Jeong, WonSik;Won, JongSeop
    • KIISE Transactions on Computing Practices
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    • v.22 no.12
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    • pp.632-645
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    • 2016
  • The enterprise environment, various interface systems are utilized for business processes and for exchange of messages. In the interface communication environment, as business complexity increases, the interface system is connected with numerous systems. With increasing number of linked systems, there is a proportional increase in the workforce, leading to a rise in numerous risks (inconsistency of information, non-compliance with standards, etc.). To solve the problem, we propose a system for managing and centralizing information of the message based interface system. The proposed system enables information integration management, message information distribution, standard code generation, risk management and risk evasion. Using the proposed system, the in development environment user can prevent inconsistent information, analyze risk, avoid risk, distribute information automatically and create a standard code. Ultimately, there is an increase in user productivity and it is possible to evade the risks involved.

Various modeling approaches in auto insurance pricing (다양한 모형화를 통한 자동차 보험가격 산출)

  • Kim, Myung-Joon;Kim, Yeong-Hwa
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.20 no.3
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    • pp.515-526
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    • 2009
  • Pricing based on proper risk has been one of main issues in auto insurance. In this paper, we review how the techniques of pricing in auto insurance have been developed and suggest a better approach which meets the existing risk statistically by comparison. The generalized linear model (GLM) method is discussed for pricing with different distributions. With GLM approach, the distribution of error assumed plays an main role for the best fit corresponding to the characteristics of dependent variables. Tweedie distribution is considered as one of error distributions in addition to widely used Gamma and Poisson distribution. With these different types of error assumption for estimating the proper premium in auto insurance, various modeling approaches are possible. In this paper, various modeling approaches with different assumptions for estimating proper risk is discussed and also real example is given by assuming different.

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The Impact of Disclosure Quality on Crash Risk: Focusing on Unfaithful Disclosure Firms (공시품질이 주가급락에 미치는 영향: 불성실공시 지정기업을 대상으로)

  • RYU, Hae-Young
    • The Journal of Industrial Distribution & Business
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    • v.10 no.6
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    • pp.51-58
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    • 2019
  • Purpose - Prior studies reported that the opacity of information caused stock price crash. If managers fail to disclose unfavorable information about the firm over a long period of time, the stock price is overvalued compared to its original value. If the accumulated information reaches a critical point and spreads quickly to the market, the stock price plunges. Information management by management's disclosure policy can cause information uncertainty, which will lead to a plunge in stock prices in the future. Thus, this study aims at examining the impact of disclosure quality on crash risk by focusing on the unfaithful disclosure firms. Research design, data, and methodology - This study covers firms listed on KOSPI and KOSDAQ from 2004 to 2013. Firms excluded from the sample are non-December firms, capital-eroding firms, and financial firms. The financial data used in the research was extracted from the KIS-Value and TS2000 database. Unfaithful disclosure firm designation data was collected from the Korea Exchange's electronic disclosure system (kind.krx.co.kr). Stock crash is measured as a dummy variable that equals one if a firm experiences at least one crash week over the fiscal year, and zero otherwise. Results - Empirical results as to the relation between unfaithful disclosure corporation designation and stock price crashes are as follows: There was a significant positive association between unfaithful disclosure corporation designation and stock price crash. This result supports the hypothesis that firms that have previously exhibited unfaithful disclosure behavior are more likely to suffer stock price plunges due to information asymmetry. Second, stock price crashes due to unfaithful disclosures are more likely to occur in Chaebol firms. Conclusions - While previous studies used estimates as a proxy for information opacity, this study used an objective measure such as unfaithful disclosure corporation designation. The designation by Korea Exchange is an objective evidence that the firm attempted to conceal and distort information in the previous year. The results of this study suggest that capital market investors need to investigate firms' disclosure behaviors.

Analysis of Farm Management Stabilization Effects Using Weather Derivatives for Apple Farmers in Kyeongpuk District (날씨파생상품을 이용한 경북지역 사과농가 경영안정 효과 분석)

  • Yun, Sung-Wuk;Choi, Jang-Hoon;Chung, Won-Ho
    • Korean Journal of Organic Agriculture
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    • v.28 no.4
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    • pp.459-475
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    • 2020
  • This study analyzes weather derivatives as an alternative risk management tool to stabilize farm revenue to complement the existing crop insurance program which suffers from asymmetric information problems such as adverse selection, moral hazard, and verifiability. We estimated apple yield functions to observe the relationship between yields and weather indices such as temperature and precipitation. Based on the estimated yield functions we designed weather futures and options products underlying temperature and precipitation, and calculated the prices of futures and options by two different approaches, historical distribution and Monte Carlo simulation. We found that weather futures and options stabilize farm revenue based on the estimated four risk indicators: Coefficient of Variation, Value at Risk, Certainty Equivalence, and Risk Premium. As a result, weather derivatives could be considered as a potential farm risk management tool through studying more in legal and institutional strategies and developing various derivatives products.

Perceived Risk Factors Affecting Consumers' Online Shopping Behaviour

  • THAM, Kok Wai;DASTANE, Omkar;JOHARI, Zainudin;ISMAIL, Nurlida Binti
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.6 no.4
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    • pp.249-260
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    • 2019
  • The study examines the impact of financial risk, convenience risk, non-delivery risk; return policy risk and product risk on online consumer behavior of Malaysian consumers. The research employed a self-administered survey to collect empirical data from 245 Malaysian online shoppers by using convenience sampling. Cronbach alpha was calculated to confirm the reliability of the data and then normality was assessed. Confirmatory Factor Analysis was then conducted to test the model using the goodness-of-fit tests. And finally, structural equation modeling is used to test the hypotheses and draw conclusions. IBM SPSS AMOS version 22.0 was utilized for data analysis. The research indicates that product risk, convenience risk, and return policy risk have a significant and positive impact on online shopping behavior. Financial risk is found to have insignificant and negative effects on consumer behavior. In addition, the non-delivery risk is found to have a significant and negative impact on online shopping behavior. The findings provide a useful model for measuring and managing perceived risk in online shopping which may result in an increase in participation of Malaysian consumers and reduce their cognitive deficiencies in the e-commerce environment. Several managerial implications are discussed along with the scope for future research.

Risk assessment for inland flooding in a small urban catchment : Focusing on the temporal distribution of rainfall and dual drainage model (도시 소유역 내 내수침수 위험도 평가 : 강우 시간분포 및 이중배수체계 모형을 중심으로)

  • Lee, Jaehyun;Park, Kihong;Jun, Changhyun;Oh, Jeill
    • Journal of Korean Society of Water and Wastewater
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    • v.35 no.6
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    • pp.389-403
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    • 2021
  • In this study, dual drainage system based runoff model was established for W-drainage area in G-si, and considering the various rainfall characteristics determined using Huff and Mononobe methods, the degree of flooding in the target area was analyzed and the risk was compared and analyzed through the risk matrix method. As a result, the Monobe method compared to the Huff method was analyzed to be suitable analysis for flooding of recent heavy rain, and the validity of the dynamic risk assessment considering the weight of the occurrence probability as the return period was verified through the risk matrix-based analysis. However, since the definition and estimating criteria of the flood risk matrix proposed in this study are based on the return period for extreme rainfall and the depth of flooding according to the results of applying the dual drainage model, there is a limitation in that it is difficult to consider the main factors which are direct impact on inland flooding such as city maintenance and life protection functions. In the future, if various factors affecting inland flood damage are reflected in addition to the amount of flood damage, the flood risk matrix concept proposed in this study can be used as basic information for preparation and prevention of inland flooding, as well as it is judged that it can be considered as a major evaluation item in the selection of the priority management area for sewage maintenance for countermeasures against inland flooding.