• Journal of Information Processing Systems
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• v.15 no.3
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• pp.682-693
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• 2019

The traditional classification methods mostly assume that the data for class distribution is balanced, while imbalanced data is widely found in the real world. So it is important to solve the problem of classification with imbalanced data. In Mahalanobis-Taguchi system (MTS) algorithm, data classification model is constructed with the reference space and measurement reference scale which is come from a single normal group, and thus it is suitable to handle the imbalanced data problem. In this paper, an improved method of MTS-CBPSO is constructed by introducing the chaotic mapping and binary particle swarm optimization algorithm instead of orthogonal array and signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) to select the valid variables, in which G-means, F-measure, dimensionality reduction are regarded as the classification optimization target. This proposed method is also applied to the financial distress prediction of Chinese listed companies. Compared with the traditional MTS and the common classification methods such as SVM, C4.5, k-NN, it is showed that the MTS-CBPSO method has better result of prediction accuracy and dimensionality reduction.

• International conference on construction engineering and project management
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• 2011.02a
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• pp.382-388
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• 2011

Being aware of the risk in advance necessitates intricate processes but is feasible. Although previous studies have demonstrated high accuracy, their performance still leaves room for improvement. A self-organizing feature map (SOM) based neurofuzzy model is developed in this study to provide another alternative for forecasting corporate financial distress. The model is designed to yield high prediction accuracy, as well as reference rules for evaluating corporate financial status. As a database, the study collects all financial reports from listed construction companies during the latest decade, resulting in over 1000 effective samples. The proportion of "failed" and "non-failed" companies is approximately 1:2. Each financial report is comprised of 25 ratios which are set as the input variable s. The proposed model integrates the concepts of pattern classification, fuzzy modeling and SOM-based optimization to predict corporate financial distress. The results exhibit a high accuracy rate at 85.1%. This model outperforms previous tools. A total of 97 rules are extracted from the proposed model which can be also used as reference for construction practitioners. Users may easily identify their corporate financial status by using these rules.

• International Journal of Highway Engineering
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• v.4 no.2 s.12
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• pp.9-18
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• 2002

The main distresses that influence pavement performance are rutting, fatigue cracking, and longitudinal roughness. Thus, it is important to analyze the factors that affect these three distresses, and to develop prediction models. In this paper, three distress prediction models were developed using DataPave program which stores data from a wide variety of pavement sections In the United States. Also, sensitivity studies were conducted to evaluate how the input variables impact on the distresses. The result of sensitivity study for the prediction model of rutting showed that asphalt content, air void, and optimum moisture content of subgrade were the major factors that affect rutting. The output of sensitivity study for the prediction model of fatigue cracking revealed that asphalt consistency, asphalt content, and air void were the most influential variables. The prediction model of longitudinal roughness indicated asphalt consistency, #200 passing percent of subgrade aggregate, and asphalt content were the factors that affect longitudinal roughness.

• International Journal of Highway Engineering
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• v.18 no.2
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• pp.11-18
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• 2016

PURPOSES: This paper investigates behavior and performance of concrete pavement in tunnel based on temperature data from field. METHODS : In this study, there are 4 contents to evaluate concrete pavement in tunnel, First, Comparison for distress was conducted at outside, transition, and inside part of tunnel. Secondly, temperature data was collected in air and inside concrete pavement in outside and inside tunnel. Thirdly, FEM analysis was performed to evaluate stress condition, based on temperature data from field. Finally, performance prediction was done with KPRP program. RESULTS: From the distress evaluation, failure of inside tunnel was much less than it of outside tunnel, Temperature change in tunnel was less than out side, and also it was more stable. According to result of FEM analysis, both curling stress status of inside tunnel was lower than it of outside tunnel. Based on KPRP program analysis, performance of inside tunnel was longer than outside. CONCLUSIONS : Through all study about behavior and performance of concrete pavement in tunnel, condition in tunnel has more advantages from environmental and distress point of view. Therefore, performance of inside tunnel was better than outside.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.21 no.4
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• pp.111-131
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• 2015

There are only a handful number of research conducted on pattern analysis of corporate distress as compared with research for bankruptcy prediction. The few that exists mainly focus on audited firms because financial data collection is easier for these firms. But in reality, corporate financial distress is a far more common and critical phenomenon for non-audited firms which are mainly comprised of small and medium sized firms. The purpose of this paper is to classify non-audited firms under distress according to their financial ratio using data mining; Self-Organizing Map (SOM). SOM is a type of artificial neural network that is trained using unsupervised learning to produce a lower dimensional discretized representation of the input space of the training samples, called a map. SOM is different from other artificial neural networks as it applies competitive learning as opposed to error-correction learning such as backpropagation with gradient descent, and in the sense that it uses a neighborhood function to preserve the topological properties of the input space. It is one of the popular and successful clustering algorithm. In this study, we classify types of financial distress firms, specially, non-audited firms. In the empirical test, we collect 10 financial ratios of 100 non-audited firms under distress in 2004 for the previous two years (2002 and 2003). Using these financial ratios and the SOM algorithm, five distinct patterns were distinguished. In pattern 1, financial distress was very serious in almost all financial ratios. 12% of the firms are included in these patterns. In pattern 2, financial distress was weak in almost financial ratios. 14% of the firms are included in pattern 2. In pattern 3, growth ratio was the worst among all patterns. It is speculated that the firms of this pattern may be under distress due to severe competition in their industries. Approximately 30% of the firms fell into this group. In pattern 4, the growth ratio was higher than any other pattern but the cash ratio and profitability ratio were not at the level of the growth ratio. It is concluded that the firms of this pattern were under distress in pursuit of expanding their business. About 25% of the firms were in this pattern. Last, pattern 5 encompassed very solvent firms. Perhaps firms of this pattern were distressed due to a bad short-term strategic decision or due to problems with the enterpriser of the firms. Approximately 18% of the firms were under this pattern. This study has the academic and empirical contribution. In the perspectives of the academic contribution, non-audited companies that tend to be easily bankrupt and have the unstructured or easily manipulated financial data are classified by the data mining technology (Self-Organizing Map) rather than big sized audited firms that have the well prepared and reliable financial data. In the perspectives of the empirical one, even though the financial data of the non-audited firms are conducted to analyze, it is useful for find out the first order symptom of financial distress, which makes us to forecast the prediction of bankruptcy of the firms and to manage the early warning and alert signal. These are the academic and empirical contribution of this study. The limitation of this research is to analyze only 100 corporates due to the difficulty of collecting the financial data of the non-audited firms, which make us to be hard to proceed to the analysis by the category or size difference. Also, non-financial qualitative data is crucial for the analysis of bankruptcy. Thus, the non-financial qualitative factor is taken into account for the next study. This study sheds some light on the non-audited small and medium sized firms' distress prediction in the future.

• Korean Journal of Biological Psychiatry
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• v.21 no.4
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• pp.141-150
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• 2014

Objectives The purpose of this study is to evaluate the effects of attachment security, social support and health-related burden in the prediction of psychological distress and the mediation effects of social support and health-related burden in relationship between attachment security and psychological distress. Methods Finally, 161 patients were included for the analysis. Chi-square test and independent samples t-test were used for comparing differences between depressive/anxious group and non-depressive/non-anxious group. For evaluating the relationship among attachment security, social support, psychological distress and health-related burden, structural equation modeling analysis were performed. Results 40.7% and 32.0% of the patients have significant depressive symptoms and anxiety symptoms, respectively. In the analysis for testing the differences between groups who have psychological distress and who have not, there were no significant differences of sociodemographic factors and medical characteristics between groups, except for association between depressive symptoms and type of surgery (p = 0.01). Contrary to sociodemographic and medical characteristics, there were significant differences of health-related burden and two coping resources (attachment security and social support) between groups (all p < 0.01), except for the support from medical team in between anxious group and non-anxious group (p = 0.20). In the structural equation model analysis (Model fit : chi-square/df ratio = 0.8, root mean square error of approximation = 0.000, comparative fit index = 1.000, non-normed fit index =0.991), attachment security and social support emerged as an important predictor of psychopathology. Conclusions Attachment security and social support are important factors affecting the psychological distress. We suggest that individual attachment style and the social support state must be considered to approach the newly diagnosed breast cancer patients with psychological distress.

• Computers and Concrete
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• v.6 no.4
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• pp.281-303
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• 2009

The lack of safety of bridge deck structures causes frequent repair and strengthening of such structures. The repair induces great loss of economy, not only due to direct cost by repair, but also due to stopping the public use of such structures during repair. The major reason for this frequent repair is mainly due to the lack of realistic and accurate assessment system for the bridge decks. The purpose of the present research was to develop a realistic expert system, called Bridge Slab-Expert which can evaluate reasonably the condition as well as the service life of concrete bridge decks, based on the deterioration models that are derived from both the structural and environmental effects. The diagnosis assessment of deck slabs due to structural and environmental effects are developed based on the cracking in concrete, surface distress and structural distress. Fuzzy logic is utilized to handle uncertainties and imprecision involved. Finally, Bridge Slab-Expert is developed for prediction of safety and remaining service life based on the chloride ions penetration and fick's second law. Proposed expert system is based on user-friendly GUI environment. The developed expert system will allow the correct diagnosis of concrete decks, realistic prediction of service life, the determination of confidence level, the description of condition and the proposed action for repair.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.8 no.1
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• pp.665-673
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• 2021

Default has become an extreme concern in the current world due to the financial crisis. The previous prediction of companies' bankruptcy exhibits evidence of decision assistance for financial and regulatory bodies. Notwithstanding numerous advanced approaches, this area of study is not outmoded and requires additional research. The purpose of this research is to find the best classifier to detect a company's default risk and bankruptcy. This study used secondary data from the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) and it is time-series data to examine the impact on the determinants. This research examined several different classifiers as per their competence to properly categorize default and non-default Pakistani companies listed on the PSX. Additionally, PSX has remained consistent for some years in terms of growth and has provided benefits to its stockholders. This paper utilizes machine learning techniques to predict financial distress in companies listed on the PSX. Our results indicate that most multi-stage mixture of classifiers provided noteworthy developments over the individual classifiers. This means that firms will have to work on the financial variables such as liquidity and profitability to not fall into the category of liquidation. Moreover, Adaptive Boosting (Adaboost) provides a significant boost in the performance of each classifier.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.8 no.8
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• pp.1-12
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• 2021

Altman's Z-score is used to measure a company's financial health and to predict the probability that a company will collapse within 2 years. It is proven to be very accurate to forecast bankruptcy in a wide variety of contexts and markets. The goal of this study is to use Altman's Z-score model to forecast insolvency in non-financial publicly traded enterprises. Non-financial firms are a significant industry in Malaysia, and current trends of consolidation and long-term government subsidies make assessing the financial health of such businesses critical not just for the owners, but also for other stakeholders. The sample of this study includes 84 listed companies in the Kuala Lumpur Stock Exchange. Of the 84 companies, 52 are considered high risk, and 32 are considered low-risk companies. Secondary data for the analysis was gathered from chosen companies' financial reports. The findings of this study show that the Altman model may be used to forecast a company's financial collapse. It dispelled any reservations about the model's legitimacy and the utility of applying it to predict the likelihood of bankruptcy in a company. The findings of this study have significant consequences for investors, creditors, and corporate management. Portfolio managers may make better selections by not investing in companies that have proved to be in danger of failing if they understand the variables that contribute to corporate distress.

• Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
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• v.27 no.3
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• pp.1-12
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• 2022

In the event of a maritime distress accident, rapid search and rescue operations using rescue assets are very important to ensure the safety and life of drowning person's at sea. In this paper, we analyzed the surface layer current in the northwest sea area of Ulleungdo by applying machine learning such as multiple linear regression, decision tree, support vector machine, vector autoregression, and LSTM to the meteorological information collected from the maritime observation buoy. And we predicted the drowning person's route at sea based on the predicted current direction and speed information by constructing each prediction model. Comparing the various machine learning models applied in this paper through the performance evaluation measures of MAE and RMSE, the LSTM model is the best. In addition, LSTM model showed superior performance compared to the other models in the view of the difference distance between the actual and predicted movement point of drowning person.