• Fire Science and Engineering
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• v.33 no.3
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• pp.112-120
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• 2019

To improve the reliability of a safety assessment using a fire simulation in domestic PBD, the evaluation method of ASET considering the uncertainties of the input parameters and numerical model of fire simulation was carried out. To this end, a cinema and officetel were selected as the representative fire spaces. The main results were as follows. Considering the uncertainty of the heat release rate, which has the greatest effect on the major physical quantities presented in the life safety standard, significant changes in temperature, CO, and visibility occurred. In addition, when the bias factors reflecting the uncertainty of the numerical model were applied, there were no significant changes in temperature and CO concentration. On the other hand, the visibility was increased considerably due to the low prediction performance of smoke concentration in FDS. Finally, the reason why the physical quantity determining the ASET in domestic PBD is mainly visibility was discussed, and the application of uncertainty of the input parameters and numerical model in a fire simulation was suggested for an accurate ASET evaluation.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2022.05a
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• pp.208-208
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• 2022

Recently, the frequency of abnormal weather due to complex factors such as global warming is increasing frequently. From the past rainfall patterns, it is evident that climate change is causing irregular rainfall patterns. This phenomenon causes difficulty in predicting rainfall and makes it difficult to prevent and cope with natural disasters, casuing human and property damages. Therefore, accurate rainfall estimation and rainfall occurrence time prediction could be one of the ways to prevent and mitigate damage caused by flood and drought disasters. However, rainfall prediction has a lot of uncertainty, so it is necessary to understand and reduce this uncertainty. In addition, when accurate rainfall prediction is applied to the rainfall-runoff model, the accuracy of the runoff prediction can be improved. In this regard, this study aims to increase the reliability of rainfall prediction by analyzing the uncertainty of the Korean rainfall ensemble prediction data and the outflow analysis model using the Limited Area ENsemble (LENS) and the Grid based Rainfall-runoff Model (GRM) models. First, the possibility of improving rainfall prediction ability is reviewed using the QM (Quantile Mapping) technique among the bias correction techniques. Then, the GRM parameter calibration was performed twice, and the likelihood-parameter applicability evaluation and uncertainty analysis were performed using R², NSE, PBIAS, and Log-normal. The rainfall prediction data were applied to the rainfall-runoff model and evaluated before and after calibration. It is expected that more reliable flood prediction will be possible by reducing uncertainty in rainfall ensemble data when applying to the runoff model in selecting behavioral models for user uncertainty analysis. Also, it can be used as a basis of flood prediction research by integrating other parameters such as geological characteristics and rainfall events.

• Proceedings of the Korea Institute of Fire Science and Engineering Conference
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• 2011.11a
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• pp.155-158
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• 2011

유속을 측정하기 위한 다양한 기법들 가운데 양방향 저속 차압 프로브(bi-directional low velocity pressure probe)는 고온의 연소생성물이 존재하는 조건에서 화재유동장의 속도 측정에 가장 적합한 방법으로 인식되어 왔다. 그러나 양방향 유속계의 프로브 상수(probe constant)는 레이놀즈 수와 유동과 프로브의 받음각(attack angle)에 크게 영향을 받게 된다. 본 연구에서는 화재유동장 측정 기법들을 비교 평가하고 양방향 유속계의 받음각에 따른 프로브 상수의 변화를 실험적으로 평가하여 양방향 유속계의 측정 오차를 정량함으로서 화재 유동장 측정의 신뢰성 향상을 위한 기초자료를 제공하고자 한다.

• Journal of Environmental Policy
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• v.13 no.4
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• pp.79-105
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• 2014

Natech risk is a type of complex disasters that natural hazards trigger technological disaster or industrial accidents. Research on Natech risk has been started from the mid-1990s in European countries and the Unites States, and drawn much more attention after the Fukushima nuclear accident caused by the 2011 East Japan earthquake. While early studies on Natech risk have focused on the causal natural hazards and possibility to occur, and the resulting spill of hazardous materials from the perspective of science and engineering, the recent research interests lie on effective Natech risk management. Especially, emphasizing the difference of Natech risk management from traditional disaster management, issues of uncertainty management, integration between natural disaster and technological disaster, and responsibility, has been drawn attention. In Korea, Natech risk has not been introduced as a research topic. Although some regulatory improvements have been made in nuclear safety and chemical Substance management after the Fukushima disaster, the potential impact of natural hazards in these areas has not been considered yet. It is necessary to raise the issues of Natech risk management in research and policy areas through active discussion and interdisciplinary approaches.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• v.52 no.7
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• pp.1471-1480
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• 2020

This research presents a case study on the remediation of a radioactive waste (uranium: U) utilizing a multi-objective fuzzy optimization in an electrocoagulation process for the iron-stainless steel and aluminum-stainless steel anode/cathode systems. The incorporation of the cumulative uncertainty of result, operational cost and energy consumption are essential key elements in determining the feasibility of the developed model equations in satisfying specific maximum contaminant level (MCL) required by stringent environmental regulations worldwide. Pareto-optimal solutions showed that the iron system (0 ㎍/L U: 492 USD/g-U) outperformed the aluminum system (96 ㎍/L U: 747 USD/g-U) in terms of the retained uranium concentration and energy consumption. Thus, the iron system was further carried out in a multi-objective analysis due to its feasibility in satisfying various uranium standard regulatory limits. Based on the 30 ㎍/L MCL, the decision-making process via fuzzy logic showed an overall satisfaction of 6.1% at a treatment time and current density of 101.6 min and 59.9 mA/㎠, respectively. The fuzzy optimal solution reveals the following: uranium concentration - 5 ㎍/L, cumulative uncertainty - 25 ㎍/L, energy consumption - 461.7 kWh/g-U and operational cost based on electricity cost in the United States - 60.0 USD/g-U, South Korea - 55.4 USD/g-U and Finland - 78.5 USD/g-U.

• Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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• v.44 no.1
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• pp.26-36
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• 2021

The topic of this study is the field of humanitarian logistics for disaster response. Many existing studies have revealed that compliance with the golden time in response to a disaster determines the success or failure of relief activities, and logistics costs account for 80% of the disaster response cost. Besides, the agility, responsiveness, and effectiveness of the humanitarian logistics system are emphasized in consideration of the disaster situation's characteristics, such as the urgency of life-saving and rapid environmental changes. In other words, they emphasize the importance of logistics activities in disaster response, which includes the effective and efficient distribution of relief supplies. This study proposes a mathematical model for establishing a transport plan to distribute relief supplies in a disaster situation. To determine vehicles' route and the amount of relief for cities suffering a disaster, it mainly considers the urgency, effectiveness (restoration rate), and uncertainty in the logistics system. The model is initially developed as a mixed-integer nonlinear programming (MINLP) model containing some nonlinear functions and transform into a Mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) model using a logarithmic transformation and piecewise linear approximation method. Furthermore, a minimax problem is suggested to search for breakpoints and slopes to define a piecewise linear function that minimizes the linear approximation error. A numerical experiment is performed to verify the MILP model, and linear approximation error is also analyzed in the experiment.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation
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• v.9 no.6
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• pp.57-68
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• 2009

Recently, damage scale of human-induced disaster is sharply increased but its occurrences and damages are so uncertain that it is hard to construct a resonable response & mitigation plan for infrastructures. Therefore, the needs for a advanced risk management technique based on a probabilistic and stochastic risk evaluation theory is increased. In this study, these evaluation methods were investigated and a advanced disaster risk evaluation method, which is based on the probabilistic or stochastic risk assessment theory and also is a quantitative evaluation technique, was suggested. With this method, the safety changes as the result of fire damage management for recent 40 years was analyzed. And the result was compared with that of Japan. Through the consilience of the traditional risk assessment method and this method, a stochastical estimation technique for the uncertainty of future disaster's damage could support a cost-effective information for a resonable decision making on disaster mitigation.

• Smart Structures and Systems
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• v.17 no.2
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• pp.209-230
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• 2016

The Canton Tower is a high-rise slender structure with a height of 610 m. A structural health monitoring system has been instrumented on the structure, by which data is continuously monitored. This paper presents an investigation on the identified modal properties of the Canton Tower using ambient vibration data collected during a whole day (24 hours). A recently developed Fast Bayesian FFT method is utilized for operational modal analysis on the basis of the measured acceleration data. The approach views modal identification as an inference problem where probability is used as a measure for the relative plausibility of outcomes given a model of the structure and measured data. Focusing on the first several modes, the modal properties of this supertall slender structure are identified on non-overlapping time windows during the whole day under normal wind speed. With the identified modal parameters and the associated posterior uncertainty, the distribution of the modal parameters in the future is predicted and assessed. By defining the modal root-mean-square value in terms of the power spectral density of modal force identified, the identified natural frequencies and damping ratios versus the vibration amplitude are investigated with the associated posterior uncertainty considered. Meanwhile, the correlations between modal parameters and temperature, modal parameters and wind speed are studied. For comparison purpose, the frequency domain decomposition (FDD) method is also utilized to identify the modal parameters. The identified results obtained by the Bayesian method, the FDD method and a finite element model are compared and discussed.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.43 no.12
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• pp.1011-1027
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• 2010

In hydrologic modeling, prediction uncertainty generally stems from various uncertainty sources associated with model structure, data, and parameters, etc. This study aims to assess the parameter uncertainty effect on hydrologic prediction results. For this objective, a distributed rainfall-sediment yield-runoff model, which consists of rainfall-runoff module for simulation of surface and subsurface flows and sediment yield module based on unit stream power theory, was applied to the mesoscale mountainous area (Cheoncheon catchment; 289.9 $km^2$). For parameter uncertainty evaluation, the model was calibrated by a multi-objective optimization algorithm (MOSCEM) with two different objective functions (RMSE and HMLE) and Pareto optimal solutions of each case were then estimated. In Case I, the rainfall-runoff module was calibrated to investigate the effect of parameter uncertainty on hydrograph reproduction whereas in Case II, sediment yield module was calibrated to show the propagation of parameter uncertainty into sedigraph estimation. Additionally, in Case III, all parameters of both modules were simultaneously calibrated in order to take account of prediction uncertainty in rainfall-sediment yield-runoff modeling. The results showed that hydrograph prediction uncertainty of Case I was observed over the low-flow periods while the sedigraph of high-flow periods was sensitive to uncertainty of the sediment yield module parameters in Case II. In Case III, prediction uncertainty ranges of both hydrograph and sedigraph were larger than the other cases. Furthermore, prediction uncertainty in terms of spatial distribution of erosion and deposition drastically varied with the applied model parameters for all cases.

• Convergence Security Journal
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• v.14 no.3_2
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• pp.99-109
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• 2014

Disaster is when, where, and how uncertainties, which might occur. Thus, for disaster response and management at the national and local governments have been made. Korea has established the Disaster and Safety Management Basic Act. Disaster Management has been made at the national level which is to prevent disasters and countries in order to protect citizens from harm and dangerous. Korean Disaster management system is well equipped with advanced countries. The Organization of national and local government are well-maintained substantially for the disaster activities and step-by-step manuals activities. Despite that uncertainty, due to the nature of the disaster, while infrequent, causing large-scale tragedy. Minimize the damage of the disaster as a disaster management efforts are needed. Normally a real disaster, a disaster situation, efforts are to be utilized efficiently, the effectiveness of the system will appear. But while the number of large-scale disasters, including the sinking of Sewol this time for the government and local governments see the response process, the system did not work and the manual existed in the cabinet. There was no Prevention and preparation activities, there was no integrated organization for the response management with expertise in the professional staff. Whenever a large disaster raised repeatedly as a problem, but there was a substantial change in formal but no improvement. It will not reduce the damage if the disaster management is not prepared for a revolutionary turning point.