• Journal of Korea Trade
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• 제27권2호
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• pp.96-114
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• 2023

Purpose - This paper elucidates a nexus between the occurrence of rare disaster events and the volatility of economic growth by distinguishing the likelihood of rare events from stochastic volatility. We provide new empirical facts based on a quarterly time series. In particular, we focus on the role of financial liberalization in spreading the economic crisis in developing countries. Design/methodology - We use quarterly data on consumption expenditure (real per capita consumption) from 44 countries, including advanced and developing countries, ending in the fourth quarter of 2020. We estimate the likelihood of rare event occurrences and stochastic volatility for countries using the Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method developed by Barro and Jin (2021). We present our estimation results for the relationship between rare disaster events, stochastic volatility, and growth volatility. Findings - We find the global common disaster event, the COVID-19 pandemic, and thirteen country-specific disaster events. Consumption falls by about 7% on average in the first quarter of a disaster and by 4% in the long run. The occurrence of rare disaster events and the volatility of gross domestic product (GDP) growth are positively correlated (4.8%), whereas the rare events and GDP growth rate are negatively correlated (-12.1%). In particular, financial liberalization has played an important role in exacerbating the adverse impact of both rare disasters and financial market instability on growth volatility. Several case studies, including the case of South Korea, provide insights into the cause of major financial crises in small open developing countries, including the Asian currency crisis of 1998. Originality/value - This paper presents new empirical facts on the relationship between the occurrence of rare disaster events (or stochastic volatility) and growth volatility. Increasing data frequency allows for greater accuracy in assessing a country's specific risk. Our findings suggest that financial market and institutional stability can be vital for buffering against rare disaster shocks. It is necessary to preemptively strengthen the foundation for financial stability in developing countries and increase the quality of the information provided to markets.

• Journal of information and communication convergence engineering
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• 제9권1호
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• pp.69-73
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• 2011

Twitter is a microblogging service that allows its user to share short messages called tweets with each other. All the tweets are visible on a public timeline. These tweets have the valuable geospatial component and particularly time critical events. In this paper, our interest is in the rapid detection of disaster events such as tsunami, tornadoes, forest fires, and earthquakes. We describe the detection system of disaster events and show the way to detect a target event from Twitter data. This research examines the three disasters during the same time period and compares Twitter activity and Internet news on Google. A significant result from this research is that emergency detection could begin using microblogging service.

• 대한토목학회논문집
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• 제36권1호
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• pp.181-190
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• 2016

전 세계적으로 재난으로 인한 피해가 증가함에 따라 재난관리에 대한 관심이 높아지고 있다. 21세기 한국사회 역시, 메르스와 같은 신종 재난의 출현, 복합재난의 증가, 기후변화로 인한 재난의 대형화를 경험하고 있다. 본 연구에서는 이와 같이 복잡해지고 있는 한국의 재난 패턴을 분석하기 위하여 1948년부터 2014년까지의 한국에서 발생한 자연재난과 사회재난으로 인한 인명 재산 피해와 재난빈도의 관계를 살펴보았다. 또한, 우리나라 재난대응 조직에 변화를 가져온 사건들을 분석하여 멱함수와의 관계를 분석하였다. 연구 결과, 한국의 재난 피해와 빈도 사이의 관계는 멱함수 법칙을 따른다는 것을 확인하였으며, 이를 설명할 수 있는 함수식의 계수를 계산하였다. 이와 더불어, 우리나라 재난대응조직의 변화는 대규모 피해로 사회전반의 관심을 불러일으키는 "사회적 충격사건"들에 의해 유발되었으며, 이러한 사건들은 발생빈도는 낮지만 그 피해규모가 큰 사건들로서 멱함수의 긴 꼬리 부분에 위치한다는 것을 확인하였다. 연구가 갖는 정책적 시사점은 정규분포곡선으로 설명되지 않는 멱함수의 긴 꼬리 부분에 위치한 사건들에 주목하여 재난대응을 위한 정책 수립이나 조직 정비를 해야 한다는 것이다.

• 한국안전학회지
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• 제31권6호
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• pp.121-128
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• 2016

Social Media transformed the mass media based information traffic, and it has become a key resource for finding value in enterprises and public institutions. Particularly, in regards to disaster management, the necessity for public participation policy development through the use of social media is emphasized. National Disaster Management Research Institute developed the Social Big Board, which is a system that monitors social Big Data in real time for purposes of implementing social media disaster management. Social Big Board collects a daily average of 36 million tweets in Korean in real time and automatically filters disaster safety related tweets. The filtered tweets are then automatically categorized into 71 disaster safety types. This real time tweet monitoring system provides various information and insights based on the tweets, such as disaster issues, tweet frequency by region, original tweets, etc. The purpose of using this system is to take advantage of the potential benefits of social media in relations to disaster management. It is a first step towards disaster management that communicates with the people that allows us to hear the voice of the people concerning disaster issues and also understand their emotions at the same time. In this paper, Korean language text mining based Social Big Board will be briefly introduced, and disaster issue detection model, which is key algorithms, will be described. Disaster issues are divided into two categories: potential issues, which refers to abnormal signs prior to disaster events, and occurrence issues, which is a notification of disaster events. The detection models of these two categories are defined and the performance of the models are compared and evaluated.

• 한국멀티미디어학회논문지
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• 제10권12호
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• pp.1671-1678
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• 2007

In these days, Disaster Management Systems have still put emphasis on its recovery more than the prevention of disaster events. However, the countermeasure of restoration has limitations to prevent the caused loss because the disasters often happen and are massive. Therefore, we propose a disaster prevention system for supporting the safe urban. In this paper, we try to construct a real-time monitoring system to prevent disaster events using new technologies such as Wireless Sensor Networks (WSN) and Geographic Information System (GIS). As a prototype to simulate the fire disasters on real-time, we construct gas sensors and temperature sensors. Our system consists of a WSN system to collect data of the gas and temperature sensors and to monitor the situation information. Our contribution is to provide a prototype application to prevent the disasters from the fire by constructing a WSN system with gas and temperature sensors.

• 한국생활과학회지
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• 제23권6호
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• pp.999-1012
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• 2014

The purpose of this study is to examine depression in adulthood caused by the influence of negative life events (disaster accident, physical violence and emotional abuse) in pre-adulthood and explore the mediator effect of interpersonal maladjustment. To carry out such task, 974 people who have had negative life event experiences before the age of 18 were chosen based on the data from the 2012 Korean General Social Survey(KGSS) and Stata 10.0 was used to do the analysis. As a result, it was found that there was a direct relationship between negative life events in pre-adulthood and depression in adulthood. Specifically, experiences from an accident or disaster had a direct impact on depression. Moreover, experiences of physical violence and emotional abuse not only had a direct influence on depression, but also through maladjustment, it had an indirectly partial mediator effect that increases the chances of depression. Through this result, it was evident that negative life events from pre-adulthood had a negative effect on continuous interpersonal maladjustment as well as psychological welfare throughout the adulthood. Therefore, there needs to be thorough prevention measures on negative life events in pre-adulthood and strongly take post treatment into consideration. Through building a safe life environment, great deal of social support from social organizations should be prepared systematically.

• 한국간호교육학회지
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• 제18권3호
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• pp.424-435
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• 2012

Purpose: The purpose of this study was to investigate the disaster experience (accidents, education etc) and the concern for disaster preparedness of college students. Methods: This research design was a descriptive study. Data were collected from November 1, 2011 to December 30, 2011 and analyzed by the SPSS PASW statistics 18.0 program. Results: There were statistical significances in major (p<.050), grade(p<.001), and a completed disaster class(p<.001) between general characteristics and concern for disaster preparedness. The major disaster events that occurred from 2003 to 2010 in Korea were the 2007 Taean oil spill (85.4%), the 2003 Daegu subway fire (82.7%), and the 2008 Sungnyemun fire (62.9%). The possible disaster events in Korea were hurricanes, floods, fires (including wildfire), and the shutdown of communication lines. Subjects learned about cardiopulmonary resuscitation (18.2%), first aid for bleeding and fractures (17.8%), a fire drill (14.3%), and an escape drill for an earthquake (14.0%). They wanted to learn the fire drill (11.33%), the escape drill for an earthquake (9.7%), a war drill (9.0%), a disaster confrontation drill on the subway (8.6%), and a fire and explosion evacuation drill (8.4%). Half of subjects were not prepared with emergency supplies for disasters because they thought that a disaster would not occur. Conclusion: It is necessary to develop the disaster educational programs according to subject's demands in Korea.

• 한국연안방재학회지
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• 제5권4호
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• pp.203-210
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• 2018

It is generally known that submerged breakwaters can reduce the incoming wave energy without disturbing the beach scenery. However, a submerged breakwater is also able to cause a setup of the sea level in the protected area which is also called as water piling-up. Since the piling-up can result in longshore currents, sediment transports, and unexpected beach erosion, understanding about the piling-up process is required prior to designing the nearshore structures. In this study, the water piling-up behind a submerged breakwater is assessed in the time of storm events. For the study area, Anmok beach in Gyeonso-dong, Gangwon-do is selected. 1-year, 5-year, 10-year, and 50-year return-values were derived from Peaks-Over-Threshold(POT) method and those are applied as offshore boundary conditions for the numerical simulation. The numerical results of the piling-up were assessed with regard to the wave steepness and the height of the submerged breakwater. With increase of both significant wave height and the height of the submerged breakwater, the piling-up parameter is also increased which can lead to erosion of dry beach behind the structure.

• Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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• 제46권5호
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• pp.261-270
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• 2013

Objectives: This study investigated the socio-demographic characteristics and medical causes of death among meteorological disaster casualties and compared them with deaths from all causes. Methods: Based on the death data provided by the National Statistical Office from 2000 to 2011, the authors analyzed the gender, age, and region of 709 casualties whose external causes were recorded as natural events (X330-X389). Exact matching was applied to compare between deaths from meteorological disasters and all deaths. Results: The total number of deaths for last 12 years was 2 728 505. After exact matching, 642 casualties of meteorological disasters were matched to 6815 all-cause deaths, which were defined as general deaths. The mean age of the meteorological disaster casualties was 51.56, which was lower than that of the general deaths by 17.02 (p<0.001). As for the gender ratio, 62.34% of the meteorological event casualties were male. While 54.09% of the matched all-cause deaths occurred at a medical institution, only 7.6% of casualties from meteorological events did. As for occupation, the rate of those working in agriculture, forestry, and fishery jobs was twice as high in the casualties from meteorological disasters as that in the general deaths (p<0.001). Meteorological disaster-related injuries like drowning were more prevalent in the casualties of meteorological events (57.48%). The rate of amputation and crushing injury in deaths from meteorological disasters was three times as high as in the general deaths Conclusions: The new information gained on the particular characteristics contributing to casualties from meteorological events will be useful for developing prevention policies.

• 기술사
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• 제41권4호
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• pp.43-46
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• 2008

The extreme weather events have increased around the world this century. One of the main reasons of frequent occurrence is the change of atmospheric circulation by El nino. also Korea Peninsular is not exception. The 97 % of death toll and 89 % of property loss of total are related with extreme-weather events for the last 10 years. for example the heavy rainfall (1998-4999) and Typhoon Rusa and Mamie. In spite of the percent of death toll by extreme-weather disaster is increasing and the total population is growing. but the number of death toll from natural disasters is decreasing. It shows that the loss of property and life can be minimize by preparing the proper disaster prevention measures. There are several preparations to reduce the damage by extreme-weather events: Public facilities have overall check up, to recognize the weather alert, the awareness of the escape route and the art of measures