• Title/Summary/Keyword: Development fields

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Influence analysis of Internet buzz to corporate performance : Individual stock price prediction using sentiment analysis of online news (온라인 언급이 기업 성과에 미치는 영향 분석 : 뉴스 감성분석을 통한 기업별 주가 예측)

  • Jeong, Ji Seon;Kim, Dong Sung;Kim, Jong Woo
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.21 no.4
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    • pp.37-51
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    • 2015
  • Due to the development of internet technology and the rapid increase of internet data, various studies are actively conducted on how to use and analyze internet data for various purposes. In particular, in recent years, a number of studies have been performed on the applications of text mining techniques in order to overcome the limitations of the current application of structured data. Especially, there are various studies on sentimental analysis to score opinions based on the distribution of polarity such as positivity or negativity of vocabularies or sentences of the texts in documents. As a part of such studies, this study tries to predict ups and downs of stock prices of companies by performing sentimental analysis on news contexts of the particular companies in the Internet. A variety of news on companies is produced online by different economic agents, and it is diffused quickly and accessed easily in the Internet. So, based on inefficient market hypothesis, we can expect that news information of an individual company can be used to predict the fluctuations of stock prices of the company if we apply proper data analysis techniques. However, as the areas of corporate management activity are different, an analysis considering characteristics of each company is required in the analysis of text data based on machine-learning. In addition, since the news including positive or negative information on certain companies have various impacts on other companies or industry fields, an analysis for the prediction of the stock price of each company is necessary. Therefore, this study attempted to predict changes in the stock prices of the individual companies that applied a sentimental analysis of the online news data. Accordingly, this study chose top company in KOSPI 200 as the subjects of the analysis, and collected and analyzed online news data by each company produced for two years on a representative domestic search portal service, Naver. In addition, considering the differences in the meanings of vocabularies for each of the certain economic subjects, it aims to improve performance by building up a lexicon for each individual company and applying that to an analysis. As a result of the analysis, the accuracy of the prediction by each company are different, and the prediction accurate rate turned out to be 56% on average. Comparing the accuracy of the prediction of stock prices on industry sectors, 'energy/chemical', 'consumer goods for living' and 'consumer discretionary' showed a relatively higher accuracy of the prediction of stock prices than other industries, while it was found that the sectors such as 'information technology' and 'shipbuilding/transportation' industry had lower accuracy of prediction. The number of the representative companies in each industry collected was five each, so it is somewhat difficult to generalize, but it could be confirmed that there was a difference in the accuracy of the prediction of stock prices depending on industry sectors. In addition, at the individual company level, the companies such as 'Kangwon Land', 'KT & G' and 'SK Innovation' showed a relatively higher prediction accuracy as compared to other companies, while it showed that the companies such as 'Young Poong', 'LG', 'Samsung Life Insurance', and 'Doosan' had a low prediction accuracy of less than 50%. In this paper, we performed an analysis of the share price performance relative to the prediction of individual companies through the vocabulary of pre-built company to take advantage of the online news information. In this paper, we aim to improve performance of the stock prices prediction, applying online news information, through the stock price prediction of individual companies. Based on this, in the future, it will be possible to find ways to increase the stock price prediction accuracy by complementing the problem of unnecessary words that are added to the sentiment dictionary.

Considerable Aspects for Technical and Vocational Training in Forestry (임업기술(林業技術) 및 직업훈련(職業訓練)에 고려(考慮)되어야 할 사항(事項))

  • Ma, Sang Kyu
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.51 no.1
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    • pp.56-65
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    • 1981
  • The training of forest ranger level and forest worker level to push the sound forest management and to increase the employment effects in forestry will be done without delay as soon as possible. So several opinions to be considered are here discussed. 1. The ranger level will be at first completely trained with the technics developed and modernized, to process really the sound forest management based on the concept of ecological and economical technic. 2. The organization of vocational training and it's systematical training method will be newly adopted to increase the labour efficiency in forestry. The case of fulltime worker level should be more intensively trained and part-time worker or forest famer level should be trained by the forest ranger and skilled worker with visiting circularly their working place. And the daily employed workers and village people for working should be done by the skilled workers. 3. The training subjects for them at the beginning step will be exploited by the instructors and concerned experts with studying their current conditions. Their practical training is more reasonable to do in the practically managing forest and to carry out under the responsible of leader of this forest. 4. The instructors included rangers of training forest will get specially certain intensive training through the aids of outside experts or through the group instruction with them. 5. The training fields and their reasons to be learned by them are discussed in this paper from the basic knowledge to the skill technics. 6. In oder to systematize and mordernize more rapidly our forest technics that need for training them and also applying directly in the forest management, a total effort of certain type by scientists and technicians scattered individually all over the country is now earnestly demanded to synthesize their knowledge, technic and experience. So to do like this, the establishment of certain organization through which can do their total efforts together will be considered and assisted by the concerned authority. 7. For better lieving of full-time workers, the whole-round year working amount have to be supplied though the work technic-and working plan development. And under the conditions that the timber harvesting work is still not so enough and it has a bad climatic season, the in-side working system and side - job aids will be developed for their sound lieving. 8. The organization of labour management will be soon introduced in the concerning administrativ authority to solve the forest labour problems and to increase the employing effects in forestry in future. 9. The supply programm of improved and trained tools and maschines for forest work is also considered to use by the trained persons. If not to do so, the training results will return to the original condition and will get nothing any more.

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Evaluation on the Immunization Module of Non-chart System in Private Clinic for Development of Internet Information System of National Immunization Programme m Korea (국가 예방접종 인터넷정보시스템 개발을 위한 의원정보시스템의 예방접종 모듈 평가연구)

  • Lee, Moo-Sik;Lee, Kun-Sei;Lee, Seok-Gu;Shin, Eui-Chul;Kim, Keon-Yeop;Na, Bak-Ju;Hong, Jee-Young;Kim, Yun-Jeong;Park, Sook-Kyung;Kim, Bo-Kyung;Kwon, Yun-Hyung;Kim, Young-Taek
    • Journal of agricultural medicine and community health
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    • v.29 no.1
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    • pp.65-75
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    • 2004
  • Objectives: Immunizations have been one of the most effective measures preventing from infectious diseases. It is quite important national infectious disease prevention policy to keep the immunizations rate high and monitor the immunizations rate continuously. To do this, Korean CDC introduced the National Immunization Registry Program(NIRP) which has been implementing since 2000 at the Public Health Centers(PHC). The National Immunization Registry Program will be near completed after sharing, connecting and transfering vaccination data between public and private sector. The aims of this study was to evaluate the immunization module of non-chart system in private clinic with health information system of public health center(made by POSDATA Co., LTD) and immunization registry program(made by BIT Computer Co., LTD). Methods: The analysis and survey were done by specialists in medical, health field, and health information fields from 2001. November to 2002. January. We made the analysis and recommendation about the immunization module of non-chart system in private clinic. Results and Conclusions: To make improvement on immunization module, the system will be revised on various function like receipt and registration, preliminary medical examination, reference and inquiry, registration of vaccine, print-out various sheet, function of transfer vaccination data, issue function of vaccination certification, function of reminder and recall, function of statistical calculation, and management of vaccine stock. There are needs of an accurate assessment of current immunization module on each private non-chart system. And further studies will be necessary to make it an accurate system under changing health policy related national immunization program. We hope that the result of this study may contribute to establish the National Immunization Registry Program.

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Construction of Event Networks from Large News Data Using Text Mining Techniques (텍스트 마이닝 기법을 적용한 뉴스 데이터에서의 사건 네트워크 구축)

  • Lee, Minchul;Kim, Hea-Jin
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.24 no.1
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    • pp.183-203
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    • 2018
  • News articles are the most suitable medium for examining the events occurring at home and abroad. Especially, as the development of information and communication technology has brought various kinds of online news media, the news about the events occurring in society has increased greatly. So automatically summarizing key events from massive amounts of news data will help users to look at many of the events at a glance. In addition, if we build and provide an event network based on the relevance of events, it will be able to greatly help the reader in understanding the current events. In this study, we propose a method for extracting event networks from large news text data. To this end, we first collected Korean political and social articles from March 2016 to March 2017, and integrated the synonyms by leaving only meaningful words through preprocessing using NPMI and Word2Vec. Latent Dirichlet allocation (LDA) topic modeling was used to calculate the subject distribution by date and to find the peak of the subject distribution and to detect the event. A total of 32 topics were extracted from the topic modeling, and the point of occurrence of the event was deduced by looking at the point at which each subject distribution surged. As a result, a total of 85 events were detected, but the final 16 events were filtered and presented using the Gaussian smoothing technique. We also calculated the relevance score between events detected to construct the event network. Using the cosine coefficient between the co-occurred events, we calculated the relevance between the events and connected the events to construct the event network. Finally, we set up the event network by setting each event to each vertex and the relevance score between events to the vertices connecting the vertices. The event network constructed in our methods helped us to sort out major events in the political and social fields in Korea that occurred in the last one year in chronological order and at the same time identify which events are related to certain events. Our approach differs from existing event detection methods in that LDA topic modeling makes it possible to easily analyze large amounts of data and to identify the relevance of events that were difficult to detect in existing event detection. We applied various text mining techniques and Word2vec technique in the text preprocessing to improve the accuracy of the extraction of proper nouns and synthetic nouns, which have been difficult in analyzing existing Korean texts, can be found. In this study, the detection and network configuration techniques of the event have the following advantages in practical application. First, LDA topic modeling, which is unsupervised learning, can easily analyze subject and topic words and distribution from huge amount of data. Also, by using the date information of the collected news articles, it is possible to express the distribution by topic in a time series. Second, we can find out the connection of events in the form of present and summarized form by calculating relevance score and constructing event network by using simultaneous occurrence of topics that are difficult to grasp in existing event detection. It can be seen from the fact that the inter-event relevance-based event network proposed in this study was actually constructed in order of occurrence time. It is also possible to identify what happened as a starting point for a series of events through the event network. The limitation of this study is that the characteristics of LDA topic modeling have different results according to the initial parameters and the number of subjects, and the subject and event name of the analysis result should be given by the subjective judgment of the researcher. Also, since each topic is assumed to be exclusive and independent, it does not take into account the relevance between themes. Subsequent studies need to calculate the relevance between events that are not covered in this study or those that belong to the same subject.

A Study on Market Size Estimation Method by Product Group Using Word2Vec Algorithm (Word2Vec을 활용한 제품군별 시장규모 추정 방법에 관한 연구)

  • Jung, Ye Lim;Kim, Ji Hui;Yoo, Hyoung Sun
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.26 no.1
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    • pp.1-21
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    • 2020
  • With the rapid development of artificial intelligence technology, various techniques have been developed to extract meaningful information from unstructured text data which constitutes a large portion of big data. Over the past decades, text mining technologies have been utilized in various industries for practical applications. In the field of business intelligence, it has been employed to discover new market and/or technology opportunities and support rational decision making of business participants. The market information such as market size, market growth rate, and market share is essential for setting companies' business strategies. There has been a continuous demand in various fields for specific product level-market information. However, the information has been generally provided at industry level or broad categories based on classification standards, making it difficult to obtain specific and proper information. In this regard, we propose a new methodology that can estimate the market sizes of product groups at more detailed levels than that of previously offered. We applied Word2Vec algorithm, a neural network based semantic word embedding model, to enable automatic market size estimation from individual companies' product information in a bottom-up manner. The overall process is as follows: First, the data related to product information is collected, refined, and restructured into suitable form for applying Word2Vec model. Next, the preprocessed data is embedded into vector space by Word2Vec and then the product groups are derived by extracting similar products names based on cosine similarity calculation. Finally, the sales data on the extracted products is summated to estimate the market size of the product groups. As an experimental data, text data of product names from Statistics Korea's microdata (345,103 cases) were mapped in multidimensional vector space by Word2Vec training. We performed parameters optimization for training and then applied vector dimension of 300 and window size of 15 as optimized parameters for further experiments. We employed index words of Korean Standard Industry Classification (KSIC) as a product name dataset to more efficiently cluster product groups. The product names which are similar to KSIC indexes were extracted based on cosine similarity. The market size of extracted products as one product category was calculated from individual companies' sales data. The market sizes of 11,654 specific product lines were automatically estimated by the proposed model. For the performance verification, the results were compared with actual market size of some items. The Pearson's correlation coefficient was 0.513. Our approach has several advantages differing from the previous studies. First, text mining and machine learning techniques were applied for the first time on market size estimation, overcoming the limitations of traditional sampling based- or multiple assumption required-methods. In addition, the level of market category can be easily and efficiently adjusted according to the purpose of information use by changing cosine similarity threshold. Furthermore, it has a high potential of practical applications since it can resolve unmet needs for detailed market size information in public and private sectors. Specifically, it can be utilized in technology evaluation and technology commercialization support program conducted by governmental institutions, as well as business strategies consulting and market analysis report publishing by private firms. The limitation of our study is that the presented model needs to be improved in terms of accuracy and reliability. The semantic-based word embedding module can be advanced by giving a proper order in the preprocessed dataset or by combining another algorithm such as Jaccard similarity with Word2Vec. Also, the methods of product group clustering can be changed to other types of unsupervised machine learning algorithm. Our group is currently working on subsequent studies and we expect that it can further improve the performance of the conceptually proposed basic model in this study.

The Reserch on Actual Condition of Crime of Arson Which Occurs in Korea and Its Countermeasures (방화범죄의 실태와 그 대책 - 관심도와 동기의 다양화에 대한 대응 -)

  • Choi, Jong-Tae
    • Korean Security Journal
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    • no.1
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    • pp.371-408
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    • 1997
  • This article is the reserch on actual condition of crime of arson which occurs in Korea and its countermeasures. The the presented problem in this article are that (1) we have generally very low rate concern about the crime of arson contrary to realistic problems of rapid increase of crime of arson (2) as such criminal motives became so diverse as to the economic or criminal purpose unlike characteristic and mental deficiency of old days, and to countermeasure these problems effectively it presentation the necessity of systemantic research. Based on analysis of reality of arson, the tendency of this arson in Korea in the ratio of increase is said to be higher than those in violence crime or general fire rate. and further its rate is far more greater than those of the U.S.A. and Japan. Arson is considered to be a method of using fire as crime and in case of presently residence to be the abject, it is a public offense crime which aqccompany fatality in human life. This is the well It now fact to all of us. And further in order to presentation to the crime of arson, strictness of criminal law (criminal law No, 164 and 169, and fire protection law No. 110 and 111) and classification of arsonist as felony are institutionary reinforced to punish with certainty of possibility, Therefore, as tendency of arson has been increased compared to other nations, it is necessary to supplement strategical policy to bring out overall concerns of the seriousness of risk and damage of arson, which have been resulted from the lack of understanding. In characteristics analysis of crime of arson, (1) It is now reveald that, in the past such crime rate appeared far more within the boundary of town or city areas in the past, presently increased rate of arsons in rural areas are far more than in the town or small city areas, thereby showing characteristics of crime of arson extending nation wide. (2) general timetable of arson shows that night more than day time rate, and reveald that is trait behavior in secrecy.(3) arsonists are usually arrested at site or by victim or report of third person(82,9%).Investigation activities or self surrenders rate only 11.2%. The time span of arrest is normally the same day of arson and at times it takes more than one year to arrest. This reveals its necessity to prepare for long period of time for arrest, (4) age rate of arson is in their thirties mostly as compared to homicide, robbery and adultery, and considerable numbers of arsons are in old age of over fifties. It reveals age rate is increased (5) Over half of the arsonists are below the junior high school (6) the rate of convicts by thier records is based on first offenders primarily and secondly more than 4 time convicts. This apparently shows necessity of effective correctional education policy for their social assimilation together with re-investigation of human education at the primary and secondary education system in thier life. The examples of motivation for arosnits, such as personal animosity, fury, monetary swindle, luscious purpose and other aims of destroying of proof, and other social resistance, violence including ways of threatening, beside the motives of individual defects, are diverse and arsonic suicide and specifically suicidal accompany together keenly manifested. When we take this fact with the criminal theory, it really reveals arsons of crime are increasing and its casualities are serious and a point as a way of suicide is the anomie theory of Durkheim and comensurate with the theory of that of Merton, Specifically in the arson of industrial complex, it is revealed that one with revolutionary motive or revolting motive would do the arsonic act. For the policy of prevention of arsons, professional research work in organizational cooperation for preventive activities is conducted in municipal or city wise functions in the name of Parson Taskforces and beside a variety of research institutes in federal government have been operating effectively to countermeasure in many fields of research. Franch and Sweden beside the U.S. set up a overall operation of fire prevention research funtions and have obtained very successful result. Japan also put their research likewise for countermeasure. In this research as a way of preventive fire policy, first, it is necessary to accomodate the legal preventitive activities for fire prevention in judicial side and as an administrative side, (1) precise statistic management of crime of arson (2) establishment of professional research functions or a corporate (3) improvement of system for cooperative structural team for investigation of fires and menpower organization of professional members. Secondly, social mentality in individual prospect, recognition of fires by arson and youth education of such effect, educational program for development and practical promotion. Thirdly, in view of environmental side, the ways of actual performance by programming with the establishment of cooperative advancement in local social function elements with administrative office, habitants, school facilities and newspapers measures (2) establishment of personal protection where weak menpowers are displayed in special fire prevention measures. These measures are presented for prevention of crime of arson. The control of crime and prevention shall be prepared as a means of self defence by the principle of self responsibility Specifically arsonists usually aims at the comparatively weak control of fire prevention is prevalent and it is therefore necessary to prepare individual facilities with their spontaneous management of fire prevention instead of public municipal funtures of local geverment. As Clifford L. Karchmer asserted instead of concerns about who would commit arson, what portion of area would be the target of the arson. It is effective to minister spontaveously the fire prevention measure in his facility with the consideration of characteristics of arson. On the other hand, it is necessary for the concerned personnel of local goverment and groups to distribute to the local society in timely manner for new information about the fire prevention, thus contribute to effective result of fire prevention result. In consideration of these factors, it is inevitable to never let coincide with the phemonemon of arsons in similar or mimic features as recognized that these could prevail just an epedemic as a strong imitational attitude. In processing of policy to encounter these problems, it is necessary to place priority of city policy to enhancement of overall concerns toward the definitive essense of crime of arson.

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Correlation between High-Resolution CT and Pulmonary Function Tests in Patients with Emphysema (폐기종환자에서 고해상도 CT와 폐기능검사와의 상관관계)

  • Ahn, Joong-Hyun;Park, Jeong-Mee;Ko, Seung-Hyeon;Yoon, Jong-Goo;Kwon, Soon-Seug;Kim, Young-Kyoon;Kim, Kwan-Hyoung;Moon, Hwa-Sik;Park, Sung-Hak;Song, Jeong-Sup
    • Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
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    • v.43 no.3
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    • pp.367-376
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    • 1996
  • Background : The diagnosis of emphysema during life is based on a combination of clinical, functional, and radiographic findings, but this combination is relatively insensitive and nonspecific. The development of rapid, high-resolution third and fourth generation CT scanners has enabled us to resolve pulmonary parenchymal abnormalities with great precision. We compared the chest HRCT findings to the pulmonary function test and arterial blood gas analysis in pulmonary emphysema patients to test the ability of HRCT to quantify the degree of pulmonary emphysema. Methods : From october 1994 to october 1995, the study group consisted of 20 subjects in whom HRCT of the thorax and pulmonary function studies had been obtained at St. Mary's hospital. The analysis was from scans at preselected anatomic levels and incorporated both lungs. On each HRCT slice the lung parenchyma was assessed for two aspects of emphysema: severity and extent. The five levels were graded and scored separately for the left and right lung giving a total of 10 lung fields. A combination of severity and extent gave the degree of emphysema. We compared the HRCT quantitation of emphysema, pulmonary function tests, ABGA, CBC, and patients characteristics(age, sex, height, weight, smoking amounts etc.) in 20 patients. Results : 1) There was a significant inverse correlation between HRCT scores for emphysema and percentage predicted values of DLco(r = -0.68, p < 0.05), DLco/VA(r = -0.49, p < 0.05), FEV1(r = -0.53, p < 0.05), and FVC(r = -0.47, p < 0.05). 2) There was a significant correlation between the HRCT scores and percentage predicted values of TLC(r = 0.50, p < 0.05), RV(r = 0.64, p < 0.05). 3) There was a significant inverse correlation between the HRCT scores and PaO2(r = -0.48, p < 0.05) and significant correlation with D(A-a)O2(r = -0.48, p < 0.05) but no significant correlation between the HRCT scores and PaCO2. 4) There was no significant correlation between the HRCT scores and age, sex, height, weight, smoking amounts in patients, hemoglobin, hematocrit, and wbc counts. Conclusion : High-Resolution CT provides a useful method for early detection and quantitating emphysema in life and correlates significantly with pulmonary function tests and arterial blood gas analysis.

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An Analysis on the Curricula and Recognitions of the Home Economics Teachers who were the Participants of the First-Grade Home Economics Regular Teacher Qualification Program (중등 가정과 1급 정교사 자격 연수 프로그램 운영 실태 분석 및 연수 참여자의 인식)

  • Lim, Il-Young;Kweon, Li-Ra;Lee, Hye-Suk;Park, Mi-Jin;Ryu, Sang-Hee
    • Journal of Korean Home Economics Education Association
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    • v.19 no.4
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    • pp.37-56
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    • 2007
  • The purpose of this study is to provide basic resources to the first-grade Home Economics Regular Teacher Qualification Program (FGHERTQP) in order to improve its operation plans. For the study, the three methods were carried out: an analysis on the curricula of FGHERTQP over six years since 2000, a questionnaire asking their satisfaction degrees and needs on the programs which was answered by the home economics teachers who were the participants of FGHERTQP, and several statistical analyses such as a descriptive-test, a $X^2$-test, a t-test, and one way ANOVA by using SPSS Win ver 10.0. The results of the study were as follows; Firstly, FGHERTQP has been operated ten times by five training centers during resent six years. Subject matters ($1{\sim}7$), whole numbers of lectures ($11{\sim}29$), and their allotted working hours ($111{\sim}136$) vary with individual training centers and operation years. Secondly, when using 5 point likert scales, Contents and Methods of evaluation marked 3.08 which were the lowest scores, and Qualification Training in General marked 3.72 which was the highest score among five fields of Qualification Training in General, Contents, Organizations, Methods and Evaluation. The overall scores were low. Thirdly, in needs analysis on offering subject matters, the participants wanted to study the field of home economics education more than that of subject contents. Looking about the highest needs classified by domains, Food Principles & Meal Management showed the highest in Foods. And Consumer Issues in Clothing & Textiles in Textiles, Upcoming Housing Cultures in Housing, Family Relationship in Child Development & Family Relationship, Juveniles and their daily life as a consumer in Family & Consumer Resources Management. Fourthly, training centers' lectures available had a significant influence on the satisfaction degrees according to general characteristic variations of the participants. That is, as a training center offers more lectures in the field of subject education than those of subject contents, the participants showed higher satisfaction degrees (p<.05).

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An Intelligent Decision Support System for Selecting Promising Technologies for R&D based on Time-series Patent Analysis (R&D 기술 선정을 위한 시계열 특허 분석 기반 지능형 의사결정지원시스템)

  • Lee, Choongseok;Lee, Suk Joo;Choi, Byounggu
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.18 no.3
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    • pp.79-96
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    • 2012
  • As the pace of competition dramatically accelerates and the complexity of change grows, a variety of research have been conducted to improve firms' short-term performance and to enhance firms' long-term survival. In particular, researchers and practitioners have paid their attention to identify promising technologies that lead competitive advantage to a firm. Discovery of promising technology depends on how a firm evaluates the value of technologies, thus many evaluating methods have been proposed. Experts' opinion based approaches have been widely accepted to predict the value of technologies. Whereas this approach provides in-depth analysis and ensures validity of analysis results, it is usually cost-and time-ineffective and is limited to qualitative evaluation. Considerable studies attempt to forecast the value of technology by using patent information to overcome the limitation of experts' opinion based approach. Patent based technology evaluation has served as a valuable assessment approach of the technological forecasting because it contains a full and practical description of technology with uniform structure. Furthermore, it provides information that is not divulged in any other sources. Although patent information based approach has contributed to our understanding of prediction of promising technologies, it has some limitations because prediction has been made based on the past patent information, and the interpretations of patent analyses are not consistent. In order to fill this gap, this study proposes a technology forecasting methodology by integrating patent information approach and artificial intelligence method. The methodology consists of three modules : evaluation of technologies promising, implementation of technologies value prediction model, and recommendation of promising technologies. In the first module, technologies promising is evaluated from three different and complementary dimensions; impact, fusion, and diffusion perspectives. The impact of technologies refers to their influence on future technologies development and improvement, and is also clearly associated with their monetary value. The fusion of technologies denotes the extent to which a technology fuses different technologies, and represents the breadth of search underlying the technology. The fusion of technologies can be calculated based on technology or patent, thus this study measures two types of fusion index; fusion index per technology and fusion index per patent. Finally, the diffusion of technologies denotes their degree of applicability across scientific and technological fields. In the same vein, diffusion index per technology and diffusion index per patent are considered respectively. In the second module, technologies value prediction model is implemented using artificial intelligence method. This studies use the values of five indexes (i.e., impact index, fusion index per technology, fusion index per patent, diffusion index per technology and diffusion index per patent) at different time (e.g., t-n, t-n-1, t-n-2, ${\cdots}$) as input variables. The out variables are values of five indexes at time t, which is used for learning. The learning method adopted in this study is backpropagation algorithm. In the third module, this study recommends final promising technologies based on analytic hierarchy process. AHP provides relative importance of each index, leading to final promising index for technology. Applicability of the proposed methodology is tested by using U.S. patents in international patent class G06F (i.e., electronic digital data processing) from 2000 to 2008. The results show that mean absolute error value for prediction produced by the proposed methodology is lower than the value produced by multiple regression analysis in cases of fusion indexes. However, mean absolute error value of the proposed methodology is slightly higher than the value of multiple regression analysis. These unexpected results may be explained, in part, by small number of patents. Since this study only uses patent data in class G06F, number of sample patent data is relatively small, leading to incomplete learning to satisfy complex artificial intelligence structure. In addition, fusion index per technology and impact index are found to be important criteria to predict promising technology. This study attempts to extend the existing knowledge by proposing a new methodology for prediction technology value by integrating patent information analysis and artificial intelligence network. It helps managers who want to technology develop planning and policy maker who want to implement technology policy by providing quantitative prediction methodology. In addition, this study could help other researchers by proving a deeper understanding of the complex technological forecasting field.

The Effect of Lime Application after Cultivating Winter Forage Crops on the Change of Major Characters and Yield of Peanut (동계사료작물 재배후 석회물질 시용이 땅콩의 주요 형질 및 수량에 미치는 영향)

  • Kim, Dae-Hyang;Chim, Jae-Seong
    • The Journal of Natural Sciences
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    • v.7
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    • pp.103-114
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    • 1995
  • These experiments were conducted for decrease of injury by continuous cropping in the peanut fields of Chonbuk Wangkungarea. The continuous cropping field for four years was used in this experiment. Italian ryegrass and rye were cultivated andlime materials were distributed for improvement of soil fertility. The results were as follows; 1. Forage crops were cultivatedand lime materials were distributed on the continuous cropping field of peanut. The organic matter content of the expermentalplot cultivating Italian ryegrass was only 1.25%. The organic matter content of soil cultivated Italian ryegrass after distributedmagnesium lime was 1.37% and that of soil cultivated Italian ryegrass after distributed gypsum was 1.30%. It was highcontent comparing to that of soil distributed lime materials only. The organic matter content of soil cultivated rye after distributed gypsum was 1.77%. 2. The phosphate content of soil cutivated Italian ryegrass was 332ppm. The phosphate content ofsoil cultivated Italian ryegrass after distributed magnesium lime was 34Oppm and that of soil cultivated Italian ryegrass afterdistributed gypsum was 31 2ppm. The phosphate content of soil cultivated rye only was 386ppm. The phosphate content ofsoil cultivated rye after distributed gypsum was 41 8ppm. This phosphate content was lower than that of soil distributed limematerials only. 3. The phytotoxin content of soil cultivated Italian ryegrass after distributed magnesium lime was decreased to17.7% and that of soil cultivated Italian ryegrass after distributed gypsum was decreased to 25.3%. The phytotoxin content ofsoil cultivated rye after distributed magnesium lime was decreased to 12.0% and that of soil cultivated rye after distributedgypsum was decreased to 12.8% comparing to the phytotoxin content of soil distributed lime materials only. Italian ryegrasswas effective to decrease phytotoxin among the forage crops and gypsum was effective among the lime materials. 4. Abacterial wilt and a late spot of peanut which were known as, main reason of continuous cropping failure were surveyed.lnccidence of a bacterial wilt was 3.4% in the plot cultivated Italian ryegrass only and that was 2.9% in the plot cultivated ryeonly. lnccidence of a bacterial wilt was 2.5% in the plot cultivated Italian ryegrass after distributed magnesium lime and thatwas 2.3% in the plot cultivated rye after distributed gypsum. Inccidence plot cultivated forage crops was lower than that of plotdistributed lime materials. 5. Inccidence of a late spot was high in the plot cultivated forage crops ony, but it was low in the plotcultivated forage crops after distributed lime materials comparing to that of the control plot. 6. The growth and yield of peanutwere bad in the plot cultivated forage crops only comparing to the control plot distributed lime materials only. These resultswere same in the plot cultivated rye after distributed lime materials, but the growth and yield were grown up in the plotcultured Italian ryegrass after distributed lime materials.

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