• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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• 제81권3호
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• pp.267-280
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• 2022

Multiscale structure has attracted significant interest due to its high stiffness/strength to weight ratios and multifunctional performance. However, most of the existing concurrent topology optimization works are carried out under deterministic load conditions. Hence, this paper proposes a robust concurrent topology optimization method based on the bidirectional evolutionary structural optimization (BESO) method for the design of structures composed of periodic microstructures subjected to uncertain dynamic loads. The robust objective function is defined as the weighted sum of the mean and standard deviation of the module of dynamic structural compliance with constraints are imposed to both macro- and microscale structure volume fractions. The polynomial chaos expansion (PCE) method is used to quantify and propagate load uncertainty to evaluate the objective function. The effective properties of microstructure is evaluated by the numerical homogenization method. To release the computation burden, the decoupled sensitivity analysis method is proposed for microscale design variables. The proposed method is a non-intrusive method, and it can be conveniently extended to many topology optimization problems with other distributions. Several numerical examples are used to validate the effectiveness of the proposed robust concurrent topology optimization method.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• 제54권5호
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• pp.1579-1587
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• 2022

The effects of hydride amount (20-850 wppm), orientation (circumferential and radial), and temperature (room temperature, 100 ℃, 200 ℃) on the axial mechanical properties of Zircaloy-4 cladding were comprehensively examined. The fraction of radial hydride fraction in the cladding was quantified using PROPHET, an in-house radial hydride fraction analysis code. Uniaxial tensile tests (UTTs) were conducted at various temperatures to obtain the axial mechanical properties. Hydride orientation has a limited effect on the axial mechanical behavior of hydrided Zircaloy-4 cladding. Ultimate tensile stress (UTS) and associated uniform elongation demonstrated limited sensitivity to hydride content under UTT. Statistical uncertainty of UTS was found small, supporting the deterministic approach for the load-failure analysis of hydrided Zircaloy-4 cladding. These properties notably decrease with increasing temperature in the tested range. The dependence of yield strength on hydrogen content differed from temperature to temperature. The ductility-related parameters, such as total elongation, strain energy density (SED), and offset strain decrease with increasing hydride contents. The abrupt loss of ductility in UTT was found at ~700 wppm. Demonstrating a strong correlation between total elongation and offset strain, SED can be used as a comprehensive measure of ductility of hydrided zirconium alloy.

• Geomechanics and Engineering
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• 제35권5호
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• pp.499-509
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• 2023

The objective of this study is to perform outlier analysis to obtain the distribution of groundwater levels through the best model. The groundwater levels are measured in 10, 25 and 30 piezometers in Seoul, Daejeon and Suncheon in South Korea. Fifty-eight empirical distribution functions were applied to determine a suitable fit for the measured groundwater levels. The best fitted models based on the measured values are determined as the Generalized Pareto distribution, the Johnson SB distribution and the Normal distribution for Seoul, Daejeon and Suncheon, respectively; the reliability is estimated through the Anderson-Darling method. In this study, to choose the appropriate confidence interval, the relationship between the amount of outlier data and the confidence level is demonstrated, and then the 95% is selected at a reasonable confidence level. The best model shows a smaller error ratio than the GEV while the Mahalanobis distance and outlier labelling methods results are compared and validated. The outlier labelling and Mahalanobis distance based on median shown higher validated error ratios compared to their mean equivalent suggesting, the methods sensitivity to data structure.

• 환경영향평가
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• 제29권4호
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• pp.286-297
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• 2020

본 연구에서는 국내 4개 도시(6개 지점)로부터 도로 노면 퇴적입자 내 PAHs의 농도 및 분포특성을 비교, 분석하고 오염 수준에 대한 초과 발암 위해도를 산정하여 인체 위해성 평가를 수행하였다. 지역별 오염농도를 바탕으로 흡입, 섭취, 피부 노출에 대한 노출경로를 설정하여 결정론적 위해성평가를 수행한 결과, 울산 지역의 경우 위해도 발암 기준 1×10^-6을 상회하는 결과가 나타났다. 또한 발암위해도가 있다고 판단되는 해당 지역에 대한 확률론적 위해성평가 결과, 확률적 평균값이 단일값을 활용한 결정론적 위해도 산정에서 도출되었던 발암위해도와 중앙값에 근접한 수준을 나타내었다. 민감도 분석 결과, 노출시간에 따른 기여도가 가장 크게 나타났다. 향후 기준치를 초과하는 발암 위해도를 나타내는 지역에 대한 위해도 관리는 물론 상세한 모니터링을 통한 추가 위해성 평가가 이루어져야 할 것으로 판단되며, 지역적 특성을 반영한 노출계수의 산정을 통해 인체 위해도 평가 결과 신뢰도를 높여야 할 것으로 사료된다.

• 한국건축시공학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국건축시공학회 2007년도 추계 학술논문 발표대회
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• pp.109-113
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• 2007

This paper introduces a system, Simulation based Stochastic Markup Estimation System (S2ME), for estimating optimum markup for a project. The system was designed and implemented to better represent the real world system involved in construction bidding. The findings obtained from the analysis of existing assumptions used in the previous quantitative markup estimation methods were incorporated to improve the accuracy and predictability of the S2ME. The existing methods has four categories of assumption as follows; (1) The number of competitors and who is the competitors are known, (2) A typical competitor, who is fictitious, is assumed for easy computation, (3) the ratio of bid price against cost estimate (B/C) is assumed to follow normal distribution, (4) The deterministic output obtained from the probabilistic equation of existing models is assumed to be acceptable. However, these assumptions compromise the accuracy of prediction. In practice, the bidding patterns of the bidders are randomized in competitive bidding. To complement the lack of accuracy contributed by these assumptions, bidding project was randomly selected from the pool of bidding database in the simulation experiment. The probability to win the bid in the competitive bidding was computed using the profile of the competitors appeared in the selected bidding project record. The expected profit and probability to win the bid was calculated by selecting a bidding record randomly in an iteration of the simulation experiment under the assumption that the bidding pattern retained in historical bidding DB manifest revival. The existing computation, which is handled by means of deterministic procedure, were converted into stochastic model using simulation modeling and analysis technique as follows; (1) estimating the probability distribution functions of competitors' B/C which were obtained from historical bidding DB, (2) analyzing the sensitivity against the increment of markup using normal distribution and actual probability distribution estimated by distribution fitting, (3) estimating the maximum expected profit and optimum markup range. In the case study, the best fitted probability distribution function was estimated using the historical bidding DB retaining the competitors' bidding behavior so that the reliability was improved by estimating the output obtained from simulation experiment.

• 한국지하수토양환경학회지:지하수토양환경
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• 제22권5호
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• pp.30-39
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• 2017

In this study, the predictive toxicity of barley Hordeum vulgare was estimated using a modified terrestrial biotic ligand model (TBLM) to account for the toxic effects of $CuOH^+$ and $CuCO_3(aq)$ generated at pH 7 or higher, and this was compared to that from the original TBLM. At pH values higher than 7, the difference in $EA_{50}\{Cu^{2+}\}$ (half maximal effective activity of $Cu^{2+}$) between the two models increased with increasing pH. As Mg concentration increased from 8.24 to 148 mg/L in the pH range of 5.5 to 8.5, the difference in $EA_{50}\{Cu^{2+}\}$ increased, and it reached its maximum at pH 8. The difference in $EC_{50}[Cu]_T$ (half maximal effective concentration of Cu) between the two models increased as dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentration increased when pH was above 7. Thus, for soils with alkaline pH, the toxic effect of $CuOH^+$ and $CuCO_3(aq)$ are greater at higher salt and DOC concentrations. The acceptable Cu concentration in soil porewater can be estimated by the modified TBLM through deterministic method at pH levels higher than 7, while combination of TBLM and species sensitivity distribution through the probabilistic method could be utilized at pH levels lower than 7.

• 한국지하수토양환경학회지:지하수토양환경
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• 제20권6호
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• pp.19-27
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• 2015

Permissible soil concentrations for explosives (i.e., TNT and RDX) and heavy metals (i.e., Cu, Zn, Pb, and As) heve been derived from human risk and ecotoxicity, respectively. For TNT and RDX, human risk based-permissible soil concentrations were determined as 460 mg-TNT/kg-soil and 260 mg-RDX/kg-soil. Ecotoxicity based-permissible soil concentrations for Cu and Zn were determined from species sensitivity distribution (SSD) and uncertainty factor of 1 to 5, yielding 18.0-40.0 mg-Cu/kg-soil and 46.0-100 mg-Zn/kg-soil. For Pb and As, ecotoxicity data were not enough to establish SSD so that a deterministic method was used, generating 13.8-30.8 mg-Pb/kg-soil and 2.10-4.60 mg-As/kg-soil. It is worth noting that the methodology used to derive permissible concentrations in soil can differ depending on ecotoxicity data availability and socio-economic situations, which results in different permissible concentrations. The permissible concentrations presented in this study have been derived from conservative assumptions for exposure parameters, and thus should be considered as soil standards. In the light of remediation and pollution management of a site of interest, the site-specific and receptor-specific permissible soil concentrations should be derived considering potential receptors, current and future land use, background concentrations, and socio-economic consultation.

• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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• 제13권6호
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• pp.2721-2728
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• 2012

Background: There are limited data evaluating the cost-effectiveness of gastric cancer screening using endoscopy or upper gastrointestinal x-ray in the general population. Objective: To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of population-based screening for gastric cancer in South Korea by decision analysis. Methods: A time-dependent Markov model for gastric cancer was constructed for healthy adults 30 years of age and older, and a deterministic sensitivity analysis was performed. Cost-utility analysis with multiple strategies was conducted to compare the costs and effects of 13 different screening alternatives with respect to the following eligibility criteria: age at the beginning of screening, screening interval, and screening method. The main outcome measurement was the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio. Results: The results revealed that annual endoscopic screening from ages 50-80 was the most cost-effective for the male population. In the females, biennial endoscopy screening from ages 50-80 was calculated as the most cost-effective strategy among the 12 screening alternatives. The most cost-effective screening strategy may be adjustable according to the screening costs and the distribution of cancer stage at screening. The limitation was that effectiveness data were obtained from published sources. Conclusions: Using the threshold of $19,162 per quality-adjusted life year on the basis of the Korean gross domestic product (2008), as suggested by the World Health Organization, endoscopic gastric cancer screening starting at the age of 50 years was highly cost-effective in the Korean population. The national recommendation for gastric cancer screening should consider the starting age of screening, the screening interval, and the screening modality.

• 대한토목학회논문집
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• 제13권3호
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• pp.59-67
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• 1993

부분구조법(部分構造法)으로 프리스트레스드 콘크리트 원자로격납건물(原子爐格納建物)의 지진에 대한 확률위험도분석이나 내진 안전여유평가시 상부구조에 관한 입력자료(入力資料)가 되는 구조물(構造物)의 고유전동수와 구조물 상부에서의 최대가 속도값의 구조변수(構造變數)에 대한 변동성이 연구되었다. 본 연구는 먼저 구조모델의 고유진동수에 가장 큰 영향을 미치는 구조변수를 결정하기 위하여 각 구조변수(構造變數)의 상대적(相對的) 민감도(敏感度)를 분석(分析)하였고, 각 변수의 결정에 포함될 수 있는 불확실성(不確實性)의 정도를 고려하여 Monte Carlo 수치모형실험을 수행하였다. 최대 가속도값의 변화는 직접적분(直接積分)에 의한 시간이력곡선법으로 분석되었다. 연구결과로 첫번째모드의 고유 진동수와 건물 정상부의 최대가속도값은 각 변수중 탄생계수의 영향을 가장 크게 받으며, 결정론적 방법으로 구한 값과 비교할 때 확률론적 방법으로 구한 값(평균+표준편차)은 (+)12% 정도 변함을 알 수 있다. 또한 휨강성의 불확실성을 고려하면 동적응답은 (-)4%~(+)14% 정도 달라진다.

• 한국자동차공학회논문집
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• 제16권3호
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• pp.179-187
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• 2008

A mathematical modeling of $NO_x$ reduction in $NH_3$-SCR process is conducted. The present deterministic model solves one-dimensional conservation equations of mass and species concentrations for channel flows and the catalytic reaction. NO and NO_2$ reactions by the vanadium catalyst in the presence of $NH_3$ are calculated with the rate expressions of Langmuir-Hinshelwood scheme. The modeling was validated with extensive empirical data regarding $NO_x$ reduction efficiency. Analysis of De-$NO_x$ sensitivity conducted with regard to oxygen and water yielded highly accurate prediction over a wide range of $NO_2/NO_x$ ratios from 0 to 1 in a temperature range of $200^{\circ}C{\sim}550^{\circ}C$. The $NO_x$ reduction largely depends on $NO_2/NO_x$ ratio at temperatures lower than $300^{\circ}C$. NO reduction efficiency is significantly augmented with increasing in $NH_3$/NO ratio at higher temperatures, whereas rather insensitive to the $NH_3$/NO ratio at lower temperatures.