• Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Building Construction Conference
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• 2007.11a
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• pp.109-113
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• 2007

This paper introduces a system, Simulation based Stochastic Markup Estimation System (S2ME), for estimating optimum markup for a project. The system was designed and implemented to better represent the real world system involved in construction bidding. The findings obtained from the analysis of existing assumptions used in the previous quantitative markup estimation methods were incorporated to improve the accuracy and predictability of the S2ME. The existing methods has four categories of assumption as follows; (1) The number of competitors and who is the competitors are known, (2) A typical competitor, who is fictitious, is assumed for easy computation, (3) the ratio of bid price against cost estimate (B/C) is assumed to follow normal distribution, (4) The deterministic output obtained from the probabilistic equation of existing models is assumed to be acceptable. However, these assumptions compromise the accuracy of prediction. In practice, the bidding patterns of the bidders are randomized in competitive bidding. To complement the lack of accuracy contributed by these assumptions, bidding project was randomly selected from the pool of bidding database in the simulation experiment. The probability to win the bid in the competitive bidding was computed using the profile of the competitors appeared in the selected bidding project record. The expected profit and probability to win the bid was calculated by selecting a bidding record randomly in an iteration of the simulation experiment under the assumption that the bidding pattern retained in historical bidding DB manifest revival. The existing computation, which is handled by means of deterministic procedure, were converted into stochastic model using simulation modeling and analysis technique as follows; (1) estimating the probability distribution functions of competitors' B/C which were obtained from historical bidding DB, (2) analyzing the sensitivity against the increment of markup using normal distribution and actual probability distribution estimated by distribution fitting, (3) estimating the maximum expected profit and optimum markup range. In the case study, the best fitted probability distribution function was estimated using the historical bidding DB retaining the competitors' bidding behavior so that the reliability was improved by estimating the output obtained from simulation experiment.

• Economic and Environmental Geology
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• v.50 no.3
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• pp.239-250
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• 2017

Physically based landslide susceptibility analysis has been recognized as an effective analysis method because it can consider the mechanism of landslide occurrence. The physically based analysis used the slope geometry and geotechnical properties of slope materials as input. However, when the physically based approach is adopted in regional scale area, the uncertainties were involved in the analysis procedure due to spatial variation and complex geological conditions, which causes inaccurate analysis results. Therefore, probabilistic method have been used to quantify these uncertainties. However, the uncertainties caused by lack of information are not dealt with the probabilistic analysis. Therefore, fuzzy set theory was adopted in this study because the fuzzy set theory is more effective to deal with uncertainties caused by lack of information. In addition, the vertex method and Monte Carlo simulation are coupled with the fuzzy approach. The proposed approach was used to evaluate the landslide susceptibility for a regional study area. In order to compare the analysis results of the proposed approach, Monte Carlo simulation as the probabilistic analysis and the deterministic analysis are used to analyze the landslide susceptibility for same study area. We found that Fuzzy Monte Carlo simulation showed the better prediction accuracy than the probabilistic analysis and the deterministic analysis.

• Journal of Internet Computing and Services
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• v.23 no.3
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• pp.13-20
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• 2022

IEEE 802.11ay Wi-Fi is the next generation wireless technology and operates in mmWave band. It supports the MU-MIMO (Multiple User Multiple Input Multiple Output) transmission in which an AP (Access Point) can transmit multiple data streams simultaneously to multiple STAs (Stations). To this end, the AP should perform MU-MIMO beamforming training with the STAs. For efficient MU-MIMO beamforming training, it is important for the AP to estimate signal strength measured at each STA at which multiple beams are used simultaneously. Therefore, in the paper, we propose a deep learning-based link quality estimation scheme. Our proposed scheme estimates the signal strength with high accuracy by utilizing a deep learning model pre-trained for a certain indoor or outdoor propagation scenario. Specifically, to estimate the signal strength of the multiple concurrent beams, our scheme uses the signal strengths of the respective single beams, which can be obtained without additional signaling overhead, as the input of the deep learning model. For performance evaluation, we utilized a Q-D (Quasi-Deterministic) Channel Realization open source software and extensive channel measurement campaigns were conducted with NIST (National Institute of Standards and Technology) to implement the millimeter wave (mmWave) channel. Our simulation results demonstrate that our proposed scheme outperforms comparison schemes in terms of the accuracy of the signal strength estimation.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.43 no.8
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• pp.721-731
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• 2010

The rainfall-runoff relationship is very difficult to predict because it is complicate factor affected by many temporal and spatial parameters of the basin. In recent, models which is based on artificial intelligent such as neural network, genetic algorithm fuzzy etc., are frequently used to predict discharge while stochastic or deterministic or empirical models are used in the past. However, the discharge data which are generally used for prediction as training and validation set are often estimated from rating curve which has potential error in its estimation that makes a problem in reliability. Therefore, in this study, water stage is predicted from antecedent rainfall and water stage data for short term using three models of neural network which trained by error back propagation algorithm and optimized by genetic algorithm and training error back propagation after it is optimized by genetic algorithm respectively. As the result, the model optimized by Genetic Algorithm gives the best forecasting ability which is not much decreased as the forecasting time increase. Moreover, the models using stage data only as the input data give better results than the models using precipitation data with stage data.

• Journal of the Korea institute for structural maintenance and inspection
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• v.23 no.6
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• pp.45-52
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• 2019

Steel corrosion due to carbonation in RC (Reinforced Concrete) structures easily occurs in urban cities with high CO₂ concentration. RC structures are always subjected to external loading with various boundary conditions. The induced stress level causes changes in diffusion of harmful ion like CO₂. In this work, a quantification of carbonation progress with stress level is carried out and carbonation prediction is derived through the relations. Determining the design parameters like cover depth, CO₂ diffusion coefficient, carbonatable materials, and exterior CO₂ concentration as random variables, service lifes under carbonation with design parameter's variation are obtained through MCS(Monte Carlo Simulation). Additionally the service life with different stress level is derived and the results are compared with those from deterministic method. Cover depth and cement hydrates are evaluated to be very effective to resist carbonation, and the proposed method which can consider the effect of stress on service life can be applied to maintenance priority determination.

• Journal of Soil and Groundwater Environment
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• v.22 no.5
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• pp.30-39
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• 2017

In this study, the predictive toxicity of barley Hordeum vulgare was estimated using a modified terrestrial biotic ligand model (TBLM) to account for the toxic effects of $CuOH^+$ and $CuCO_3(aq)$ generated at pH 7 or higher, and this was compared to that from the original TBLM. At pH values higher than 7, the difference in $EA_{50}\{Cu^{2+}\}$ (half maximal effective activity of $Cu^{2+}$) between the two models increased with increasing pH. As Mg concentration increased from 8.24 to 148 mg/L in the pH range of 5.5 to 8.5, the difference in $EA_{50}\{Cu^{2+}\}$ increased, and it reached its maximum at pH 8. The difference in $EC_{50}[Cu]_T$ (half maximal effective concentration of Cu) between the two models increased as dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentration increased when pH was above 7. Thus, for soils with alkaline pH, the toxic effect of $CuOH^+$ and $CuCO_3(aq)$ are greater at higher salt and DOC concentrations. The acceptable Cu concentration in soil porewater can be estimated by the modified TBLM through deterministic method at pH levels higher than 7, while combination of TBLM and species sensitivity distribution through the probabilistic method could be utilized at pH levels lower than 7.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.33 no.4
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• pp.1651-1664
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• 2013

Precise analysis on deterioration processes of road pavements is not so simple matter due to severe uncertainty originated from a lot of explanatory variables engaged in. For those reasons, most analytical models for pavement deterioration prediction have often preferred to probabilistic approaches than deterministic models. However, the general probabilistic approaches that treat overall characteristics of population or entire sample would not be suitable for providing detail or localized information on their changing process. Considering the aspects, this paper aimed to suggest a stochastic disaggregation method to analyze the localized deterioration speeds and its variances changed by time and condition states. In addition, life expectancies and their uncertainty were estimated by probabilistic algorithm using the disaggregated stochastic process. For an empirical study, pavement inspection data (crack) accumulated from 2003 to 2010 from Korean national highway network was applied. This study can contribute to securing reliability of life cycle cost analysis, which is one of the primary analyses in road asset management, with much advanced deterioration forecasting functions. In addition, it would be meaningful trials as fundamental research for preventive maintenance strategy that demands essential understanding on changing process of the deterioration speed of pavement.

• Proceedings of the Korea Society of Environmental Toocicology Conference
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• 2003.10a
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• pp.91-93
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• 2003

It has been estimated that the equivalent of approximately $US 50 billion has been spent on research on the behavior and fate of pesticides in the environment since Rachel Carson published “Silent Spring” in 1962. Much of the resulting knowledge has been summarized explicitly in computer algorithms in a variety of empirical, deterministic, and probabilistic simulation models. These models describe and predict the transport, degradation and resultant concentrations of pesticides in various compartments of the environment during and after application. In many cases the known errors of model predictions are large. For this reason they are typically designed to be “conservative”, i.e., err on the side of over-prediction of concentrations in order to err on the side of safety. These predictions are then compared with toxicity data, from tests of the pesticide on a series of standard representative biota, including terrestrial and aquatic indicator species and higher animals (e.g., wildlife and humans). The models' predictions are good enough in some cases to provide screening of those compounds which are very unlikely to do harm, and to indicate those compounds which must be investigated further. If further investigation is indicated a more detailed (and therefore more complicated) model may be employed to give a better estimate, or field experiments may be required. A model may be used to explore “what if” questions leading to possible alternative pesticide usage patterns which give lower potential environmental concentrations and allowable exposures. We are currently at a maturing stage in this research where the knowledge base of pesticide behavior in the environmental is growing more slowly than in the past. However, innovative uses are being made of the explosion in available computer technology to use models to take ever more advantage of the knowledge we have. In this presentation, current developments in the state of the art as practiced in North America and Europe will be presented. Specifically, we will look at the efforts of the ‘Focus’ consortium in the European Union, and the ‘EMWG’ consortium in North America. These groups have been innovative in developing a process and mechanisms for discussion amongst academic, agriculture, industry and regulatory scientists, for consensus adoption of research advances into risk management methodology.

• Transactions of the Korean Society of Automotive Engineers
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• v.16 no.3
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• pp.179-187
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• 2008

A mathematical modeling of $NO_x$ reduction in $NH_3$-SCR process is conducted. The present deterministic model solves one-dimensional conservation equations of mass and species concentrations for channel flows and the catalytic reaction. NO and NO_2$ reactions by the vanadium catalyst in the presence of $NH_3$ are calculated with the rate expressions of Langmuir-Hinshelwood scheme. The modeling was validated with extensive empirical data regarding $NO_x$ reduction efficiency. Analysis of De-$NO_x$ sensitivity conducted with regard to oxygen and water yielded highly accurate prediction over a wide range of $NO_2/NO_x$ ratios from 0 to 1 in a temperature range of $200^{\circ}C{\sim}550^{\circ}C$. The $NO_x$ reduction largely depends on $NO_2/NO_x$ ratio at temperatures lower than $300^{\circ}C$. NO reduction efficiency is significantly augmented with increasing in $NH_3$/NO ratio at higher temperatures, whereas rather insensitive to the $NH_3$/NO ratio at lower temperatures.

• Journal of the Korea Concrete Institute
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• v.28 no.6
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• pp.723-731
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• 2016

In pretensioned concrete members, a certain bond length from the end of the member is required to secure the effective prestress in the strands, which is defined as the transfer length. However, due to the complex bond mechanism between strands and concrete, most transfer length models based on the deterministic approach have uncertainties and do not provide accurate estimations. Therefore, in this study, Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS), a Neuro-Fuzzy System, is introduced to reduce the uncertainties and to estimate the transfer length more accurately in pretensioned concrete member. A total of 253 transfer length test results have been collected from literatures to train ANFIS, and the trained ANFIS algorithm estimated the transfer length very accurately. In addition, a design equation was proposed to calculate the transfer length based on parametric studies and dimensional analyses. Consequently, the proposed equation provided accurate results on the transfer length which are comparable to the ANFIS analysis results.