• Economic and Environmental Geology
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• v.33 no.4
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• pp.295-307
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• 2000

Probabilistic analysis is a powerful method to quantify variability and uncertainty common in engineering geology fields. In rock slope engineering, the uncertainty and variation may be in the form of scatter in orientations and geometries of discontinuities, and also test results. However, in the deterministic analysis, the factor of safety which is used to ensure stability of rock slopes, is based on the fixed representative values for each parameter without a consideration of the scattering in data. For comparison, in the probabilistic analysis, these discontinuity parameters are considered as random variables, and therefore, the reliability and probability theories are utilized to evaluate the possibility of slope failure. Therefore, in the probabilistic analysis, the factor of safety is considered as a random variable and replaced by the probability of failure to measure the level of slope stability. In this study, the stochastic properties of discontinuity parameters are evaluated and the stability of rock slope is analyzed based on the random properties of discontinuity parameters. Then, the results between the deterministic analysis and the probabilistic analysis are compared and the differences between the two analysis methods are explained.

• Proceedings of the Korean Geotechical Society Conference
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• 2005.10a
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• pp.344-351
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• 2005

In this paper, a reliability-groundwater flow program is developed by coupling the 2-D finite element numerical groundwater flow program with first and second order reliability program. From the parametric study of hydraulic conductivity of soil layers, the increase of both mean and variance of hydraulic conductivity results in the increase of probability of exceeding the threshold hydraulic head. The probability of failure was more sensitive to parameters of weathered granitic soil and rock located at the middle and bottom of the excavation than those at the other locations. It can be recommended from this study that the reliability method, which can include the uncertainty of soil parameters, should be performed together with the deterministic analysis to compensate the weakness of the latter analysis for the groundwater flow problem of underground excavations.

• Journal of computational fluids engineering
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• v.11 no.1 s.32
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• pp.21-28
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• 2006

Reliability Based Design Optimization(RBDO) is one of the optimization methods that minimize the product failure due to small changes of operating conditions or process errors. It searches the optimum that satisfies the safety margin of each constraint, and it gives stable and reliable designs. However, RBDO requires many times oj computational efforts compared with the conventional deterministic optimization(DO) to evaluate the probability of failure about each constraint, therefore it is hard to apply directly to large-scaled problems such as a flexible wing shape design optimization. For the efficient reliability analysis, the approximate reliability analysis method with the two-point approximation(TPA) is proposed In this study, the lift-to-drag ratio maximization designs are performed with 3-dimensional Navier-Stokes analysis and NASTRAN structural analysis, and the optimization results about the deterministic, FORM and SORM are compared.

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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• v.26 no.3
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• pp.251-262
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• 2007

This paper examines the application of artificial neural networks (ANN) to the response prediction of geometrically nonlinear truss structures. Two types of analysis (deterministic and probabilistic analyses) are considered. A three-layer feed-forward backpropagation network with three input nodes, five hidden layer nodes and two output nodes is firstly developed for the deterministic response analysis. Then a back propagation training algorithm with Bayesian regularization is used to train the network. The trained network is then successfully combined with a direct Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) to perform a probabilistic response analysis of geometrically nonlinear truss structures. Finally, the proposed ANN is applied to predict the response of a geometrically nonlinear truss structure. It is found that the proposed ANN is very efficient and reasonable in predicting the response of geometrically nonlinear truss structures.

• Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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• v.18 no.4
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• pp.119-126
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• 2002

A reliability analysis is performed to investigate the influence of the uncertainty from few in-situ samples and inherent heterogeneity of the ground on the probability of failure for a rock cut slope. The results are compared with those of deterministic slope stability analysis. The random variables used are unit weight of the rock, the angle of potential slope of failure, and cohesion and internal friction angle of joints. It was found that the rock slope in which the factor of safety satisfied the minimum safety factor in the deterministic analysis has high probability of failure in the reliability analysis when the weak geological strata are involved in the cut slope. The probability of failure of rock slope is most sensitive to the mean and standard deviation of cohesion in rock joint among the random soil parameters included in the reliability analysis. Sensitivities of the mean values are larger than those of standard deviations, which means that accurate estimation of the mean for the in-situ geotechnical properties is important.

• Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
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• v.27 no.7
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• pp.1234-1242
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• 2003

In this paper we present a simple and efficient robust optimal design formulation for MEMS structures and its application to a resonant-type micro probe. The basic idea is to use the gradient index (GI) to improve robustness of the objective and constraint functions. In the robust optimal design procedure, a deterministic optimization for performance of MEMS structures is followed by design sensitivity analysis with respect to uncertainties such as fabrication errors and change of operating conditions. During the process of deterministic optimization and sensitivity analysis, dominant performance and uncertain variables are identified to define GI. The GI is incorporated as a term of objective and constraint functions in the robust optimal design formulation to make both performance and robustness improved. While most previous approaches for robust optimal design require statistical information on design variations, the proposed GI based method needs no such information and therefore is cost-effective and easily applicable to early design stages. For the micro probe example, robust optimums are obtained to satisfy the targets for the measurement sensitivity and they are compared in terms of robustness and production yield with the deterministic optimums through the Monte Carlo simulation. This method, although shown for MEMS structures, may as well be easily applied to conventional mechanical structures where information on uncertainties is lacking but robustness is highly important.

• Proceedings of the KSME Conference
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• 2003.04a
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• pp.1254-1261
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• 2003

In this paper we present a simple and efficient robust optimal design formulation and its application to a resonant-type micro probe. The basic idea is to use the Gradient Index (GI) to improve robustness of the objective and constraint functions. In the robust optimal design procedure, a deterministic optimization for performance of MEMS structures is followed by design sensitivity analysis with respect to uncertainties such as fabrication errors and change of operating conditions. During the process of deterministic optimization and sensitivity analysis, dominant performance and uncertain variables are identified to define GI. The GI is incorporated as a term of objective and constraint functions in the robust optimal design formulation to make both performance and robustness improved. While most previous approaches for robust optimal design require statistical information on design variations, the proposed GI based method needs no such information and therefore is cost-efficient and easily applicable to early design stages. For the micro probe example, robust optimums are obtained to satisfy the targets for the measurement sensitivity and they are compared in terms of robustness and production yield with the deterministic optimums through the Monte Carlo simulation.

• Proceedings of the Korea Technical Association of the Pulp and Paper Industry Conference
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• 2005.11a
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• pp.45-53
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• 2005

A novel method for evaluating the anisotropy of the deterministic features in a stochastic 2D data is introduced. The ability of the wavelet transform for the identification of the abrupt discontinuities could be used to characterize the boundary of the deterministic area in a 2D stochastic data, such as flocs in paper structure. The one-dimensional wavelet transform with a small-scale range in MD and CD could quantify the amount of the edge in both directions, depending on the intensity of each floc. The flocs that are aligned in the MD direction result in a higher value of local wavelet energy in the CD direction. Therefore, the ratio of the total wavelet energy in CD and MD directions can be used as a new anisotropy index. This index is a measure of the floc-orientation and can provide an excellent tool to obtain the orientation distribution and the major oriented angle of flocs. Various simulated images and real stochastic data such as local gloss variation of printed image and formation image, have been tested and the results show this analysis method is very reliable to measure the anisotropy of the deterministic features.

• Atmosphere
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• v.30 no.4
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• pp.405-420
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• 2020

In this study, we investigate the predictability of intraseasonal monthly temperature and precipitation variations using hindcast datasets from eight global circulation models participating in the operational multi-model ensemble (MME) seasonal prediction system of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Climate Center for the 1983~2010 period. These intraseasonal monthly variations are defined by categorical deterministic analysis. The monthly temperature and precipitation are categorized into above normal (AN), near normal (NN), and below normal (BN) based on the σ-value ± 0.43 after standardization. The nine patterns of intraseasonal monthly variation are defined by considering the changing pattern of the monthly categories for the three consecutive months. A deterministic and a probabilistic analysis are used to define intraseasonal monthly variation for the multi-model consisting of numerous ensemble members. The results show that a pattern (pattern 7), which has the same monthly categories in three consecutive months, is the most frequently occurring pattern in observation regardless of the seasons and variables. Meanwhile, the patterns (e.g., patterns 8 and 9) that have consistently increasing or decreasing trends in three consecutive months, such as BN-NN-AN or AN-NN-BN, occur rarely in observation. The MME and eight individual models generally capture pattern 7 well but rarely capture patterns 8 and 9.

• International Journal of Naval Architecture and Ocean Engineering
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• v.13 no.1
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• pp.511-525
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• 2021

Aluminium outfitting is widely used in offshore platforms owing to its anti-corrosion ability and its light weight. However, various standards exist (ISO, NORSOK and EN) for the design of handrails used in offshore platforms, and different suppliers have different criteria. This causes great confusion for designers. Moreover, the design load required by the standards is not clearly defined or is uncertain. Thus, many offshore projects reference previous project details or are conservatively designed without additional clarification. In this study, all of the codes and standards were reviewed and analysed through prior studies, and data on variable factors that directly and indirectly affect the handrails applied to offshore platforms were analysed. A total of 50 handrail design load scenarios were proposed through deterministic and probabilistic approaches. To verify the proposed new handrail design load selection scenario, structural analysis was performed using SACS (offshore structural analysis software). This new proposal through deterministic and probabilistic approaches is expected to improve safety by clarifying the purpose of the handrails. Furthermore, the acceptance criteria for probabilistic scenarios for handrails suggest considering the frequency of handrail use and the design life of offshore platforms to prevent excessive design. This study is expected to prevent trial and error in handrail design while maintaining overall worker safety by applying a loading scenario suitable for the project environment to enable optimal handrail design.