• Journal of Wetlands Research
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• v.13 no.1
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• pp.53-66
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• 2011

We estimated the expected flood damage considering uncertainty which is involved in hydrologic processes and data. Actually, this uncertainty represents a freeboard or safety factor in the design of hydraulic structures. The uncertainty was analyzed using Bootstrap method, and SIR algorithm then the frequency based rainfalls were estimated for each method of uncertainty analysis. Also the benefits for each uncertainty analysis were estimated using 'multi-dimensional flood damage analysis(MD-FDA). As a result, the expected flood damage with SIR algorithm was 1.22 times of present status and Boostrap 0.92 times. However when we used SIR algorithm, the likelihood function should be selected with caution for the estimation of the expected flood damage.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2006.05a
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• pp.770-774
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• 2006

The determination of feasible design flood is the most important to control flood damage in river management. Model parameters should be calibrated using observed discharge but due to deficiency of observed data the parameters have been adopted by engineer's empirical sense. Storage coefficient in the Clark unit hydrograph method mainly affects magnitude of peak flood. This study is to estimate the storage coefficients based on the observed rainfall-runoff events at the four stage stations in the Hantan river basin. Model calibration is the process of adjusting model parameter values until model results match historical data. An objective function which is the percent difference between the observed and computed peak flows is available for measuring the goodness-of-fit between computed and observed hydrographs. By sensitivity analysis for the storage coefficient, it has been shown that the storage coefficients affect the peak flows. The Clark parameters adopted in the River Rectification Basic Plan have been estimated through an iterative process designed to produce a hydrograph with the peak flow.

• Journal of Environmental Science International
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• v.26 no.12
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• pp.1321-1331
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• 2017

This study reviewed the applicability of the existing flood discharge calculation method on Jeju Island Han Stream and compared this method with observation results by improving the mediating variables for the Han Stream. The results were as follows. First, when the rain-discharge status of the Han Stream was analyzed using the flood discharge calculation method of the existing design (2012), the result was smaller than the observed flood discharge and the flood hydrograph differed. The result of the flood discharge calculation corrected for the curve number based on the terrain gradient showed an improvement of 1.47 - 6.47% from the existing flood discharge, and flood discharge was improved by 4.39 - 16.67% after applying the new reached time. In addition, the sub-basin was set separately to calculate the flood discharge, which yielded an improvement of 9.92 - 32.96% from the existing method. In particular, the steepness and rainfall-discharge characteristics of Han Stream were considered in the reaching time, and the sub-basin was separated to calculate the flood discharge, which resulted in an error rate of -8.77 to 8.71%, showing a large improvement of 7.31 - 28.79% from the existing method. The flood hydrograph also showed a similar tendency.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.49 no.9
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• pp.773-787
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• 2016

A coupled river-overland hydrodynamic model was applied to estimate flood risk by a scenario-based approach. The study area is Seongseo Industrial Complex in Daegu which is located near Nakdong river and Geumho river. Inundation depth and velocity at each time were calculated by applying a coupled 1D/2D hydrodynamic model to the target area of interest. The 2D inundation analysis for river and overland domain was performed with the scenario-based approach that there are levee overflow against 100/200 year high quantile (97.5%) design flood and levee break against 100/200 year normal quantile (50%) design flood. The level of flood risk was displayed for resident/industrial area using information about maximum depth and velocity of each node computed from the 2D inundation map. The research outcome would be very useful in establishing specified emergency action plans (EAP) in case of levee break and overflowing resulting from a flood.

• IE interfaces
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• v.21 no.4
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• pp.365-377
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• 2008

In this paper, for constructing the Korean Hazard Information System (KHIS), we conceptually design a hazard evaluation process. We first deal with a hazard evaluation process focused on flood hazard to give the most immense damage and loss. The hazard evaluation process is consist of a damage evaluation process and a loss evaluation process, and is used for transforming hazards from natural disasters into economic measures. The proposed process is developed based on the famous FEMA (Federal Emergency Management Agency)'s $HAZAS^{@MH}$methodology. We modify the FEMA's process to be mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive, that is all losses from the hazards are included into the estimation process but the losses are not duplicated in the process. In addition to this, we define the loss process specifically by considering the characteristics from the hazard environments of Korea. We can expect that KHIS for evaluating economic losses from natural hazards can be developed based on the conceptual design for the economic loss evaluation process, and KHIS can be used as a useful tool for analyzing the feasibilities of mitigation plans in central/local governments.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 1986.07a
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• pp.93-101
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• 1986

This study aims at analysis and application of PMP(Probable Maximum Precipitation) for the determination of design of major hydraulic structures. PMP was estimated by hydro-meteorolgical method and envelope curve method. PMF(Probable Maximum Flood) was then estimated from this PMP by synthetic unit hydrograph method and chow method. From the comparison of three methods for PMP estimation of magnitude of PMP in order of statistical, hydro-meteorlogical, envelope curve method. Amon PMP results estimated by each method it is believed that the hydro-meteorological method gave the best proper value in comparison with historical maximum rainfall because of this method reflected upon all meteorological factor. From the comparison of PMP with probable rainfall and flood, it was shown that estimated value by statistical method and hydro-metelogical method were nearly equivalent to the value of return period 200 to 500 year. It was found that PMF estimated from would be more safe for the design of major hydraulic structures in the consinderation.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.30 no.5
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• pp.423-430
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• 1997

It is one of the most important factors to determine the effective rainfall for estimation of flood hydrograph in design schedule. SCS curve number (CN) method has been frequently used to estimate the effective rainfall of synthesized design flood hydrograph for hydraulic structures. But, it should be cautious to apply SCS-CN originally developed in U.S.A to watersheds in Korea, because characteristics of watersheds in Korea and cropping patterns especially like a paddy land cultivation are quite different from those in USA. New CN method has been introduced. Maximum storage capacity which was herein defined as Umax can be calibrated from the streamflow data and converted to new CN-I of direst condition of soil moisture in the given watershed. Effective rainfall for design flood hydrograph can be estimated by the curve number developed in the watersheds in Korea.

• Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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• v.57 no.1
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• pp.47-57
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• 2015

Along with climate change, the occurrence and severity of natural disasters have been increased globally. In particular, the increase of localized heavy rainfalls have caused severe flood damage. Thus, it is needed to consider climate change into the estimation of design flood, a principal design factor. The main objective of this study was to estimate design floods for an agricultural reservoir watershed based on the RCP (Representative Concentration Pathways) scenarios. Gyeryong Reservoir located in the Geum River watershed was selected as the study area. Precipitation data of the past 30 years (1981~2010; 1995s) were collected from the Daejeon meteorological station. Future precipitation data based on RCP2.6, 4.5, 6.0, 8.5 scenarios were also obtained and corrected their bias using the quantile mapping method. Probability rainfalls of 200-year frequency and PMPs were calculated for three different future spans, i.e. 2011~2040; 2025s, 2041~2070; 2055s, 2071~2100; 2085s. Design floods for different probability rainfalls were calculated using HEC-HMS. As the result, future probability rainfalls increased by 9.5 %, 7.8 % and 22.0 %, also design floods increased by 20.7 %, 5.0 % and 26.9 %, respectively, as compared to the past 1995s and tend to increase over those of 1995s. RCP4.5 scenario, especially, resulted in the greatest increase in design floods, 37.3 %, 36.5 % and 47.1 %, respectively, as compared to the past 1995s. The study findings are expected to be used as a basis to reduce damage caused by climate change and to establish adaptation policies in the future.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.45 no.10
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• pp.1023-1034
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• 2012

Linear regression technique has been used widely in water resources field as well as various fields such as economics and statistics, and so on. Using fuzzy regression technique, it is possible to quantify uncertainty and reflect them to the regression model. In this study, fuzzy regression model is developed to compute design floods in any place in Pyeongchang River basin. In ungaged basins, it is usually difficult to obtain data required for flood discharge analysis. In this study, basin characteristics elements are analyzed spatially using GIS and the technique of estimating design flood in ungaged mountainous basin is studied based on the result. Fuzzy regression technique is applied to Pyeongchang River basin which has mountainous basin characteristics and well collected rainfall and runoff data through IHP test basin project. Fuzzy design flood estimation equations are developed using the basin characteristics elements for Pyeongchang River basin. The suitability of developed fuzzy equations are examined by comparing the results with design floods computed in 9 locations along the river. Using regional regression method and fuzzy regression analysis, the uncertainties of the design floods occurred from the data monitoring can be quantified.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.13 no.3
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• pp.139-154
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• 1993

The major purpose of this study is to develop a regionalized regression model, which predicts flood peaks from the characteristics of the ungaged catchments, through the regional flood frequency analysis for the selected stage gauging stations located on several natural rivers of Korea. The magnitude and the frequency of flood peaks with specified recurrence intervals were estimated from the flood frequency analysis on the 28 selected stage gauging stations distributed on the five major rivers of Korea. The results of the analysis were compared with the predictions from the two different flood frequency models. From the statistical evaluation of these models, it was revealed that the POT model (Peaks Over a Threshold model), which is based on the partial duration method, is more effective in predicting flood peaks from short period records than the ANNMAX model (ANNual MAXimum model) which is based on the annual maximum series method. A regionalized regression model was developed to facilitate the estimation of design floods for ungaged catchments through the regression analysis between flood peaks and the topographic characteristics of the catchments assumed to be important in runoff processes. In addition to this, the correlation diagrams are presented which show the relationships between flood peaks with specified recurrence intervals and the major characteristics of the catchments.