• Title/Summary/Keyword: Design Flood

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Estimation of Design Flood by the Determination of Best Fitting Order of LH-Moments(II) (LH-모멘트의 적정 차수 결정에 의한 설계홍수량 추정(II))

  • 맹승진;이순혁
    • Magazine of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.45 no.1
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    • pp.33-44
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    • 2003
  • This study was conducted to estimate the design flood by the determination of best fitting order for LH-moments of the annual maximum series at fifteen watersheds. Using the LH-moment ratios and Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, the optimal regional probability distribution was identified to be the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) in the first report of this project. Parameters of GEV distribution and flood flows of return period n years were derived by the methods of L, L1, L2, L3 and L4-moments. Frequency analysis of flood flow data generated by Monte Carlo simulation was performed by the methods of L, L1, L2, L3 and L4-moments using GEV distribution. Relative Root Mean Square Error. (RRMSE), Relative Bias (RBIAS) and Relative Efficiency (RE.) using methods of L, Ll , L2, L3 and L4-moments for GEV distribution were computed and compared with those resulting from Monte Carlo simulation. At almost all of the watersheds, the more the order of LH-moments and the return periods increased, the more RE became, while the less RRMSE and RBIAS became. The Absolute Relative Reduction (ARR) for the design flood was computed. The more the order of LH-moments increased, the less ARR of all applied watershed became It was confirmed that confidence efficiency of estimated design flood was increased as the order of LH-moments increased. Consequently, design floods for the appled watersheds were derived by the methods of L3 and L4-moments among LH-moments in view of high confidence efficiency.

A Study on the Impact Range Calculation at the Downstream of Dam (댐이 하류하천에 미치는 영향권 산정에 관한 연구)

  • Park, Bong-Jin;Kim, Hyeon-Sik;Jung, Kwan-Sue;Ji, Hong-Ki
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.41 no.10
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    • pp.1009-1021
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    • 2008
  • In this study, 4 indices of hydraulic & hydrological, geomorphological, eco & environmental, social effect and 38 items are selected to calculate impact range of downstream of dam. The Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP) was applied to determine the priority of impact range calculation indices and items. As results of indices valuation, hydraulic & hydrological effect is the first priority, the second is eco & environmental, next are geomorphological and social effect. As results of items valuation, the design flood of dam is the first priority, the second is the natural flood & design flood of channel, next are the design flood rate of channel, drainage area and back water level caused by downstream of dam. In the case of Daechung dam, impact ranges were estimated 47.21 km in terms of the design flood of dam, 45.71 km of the design flood rate of channel, 13.94 km of the drainage area.

The Application of the Poisson Cluster Rainfall Generation Model to the Flood Analysis (포아송 클러스터 강우생성 모형의 홍수 모의 적용성 평가)

  • Kim, Dongkyun;Shin, Ji Yae;Lee, Seung-Oh;Kim, Tae-Woong
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.46 no.5
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    • pp.439-447
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    • 2013
  • The applicability of the parameter map of the Modified Bartlett-Lewis Rectangular Pulse (MBLRP) model for the Korean Peninsula was assessed from the perspective of flood prediction. The design rainfalls estimated from the MBLRP model were smaller than those from observed values by 5% to 40%, and the degree of underestimation of design rainfall increases with the increase of the recurrence interval of the design rainfall. The design floods at a virtual watershed estimated using the simulated rainfall time series based on MBLRP model were also smaller than those derived from the observed rainfall time series by 20% to 45%. The degree of underestimation of design flood increases with the increase of the recurrence interval of the design flood.

The Impact Assessment of Climate Change on Design Flood in Mihochen basin based on the Representative Concentration Pathway Climate Change Scenario (RCP 기후변화시나리오를 이용한 기후변화가 미호천 유역의 설계홍수량에 미치는 영향평가)

  • Kim, Byung Sik;Ha, Sung Ryong
    • Journal of Wetlands Research
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    • v.15 no.1
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    • pp.105-114
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    • 2013
  • Recently, Due to Climate change, extreme rainfall occurs frequently. In many preceding studies, Because of extreme hydrological events changes, it is expected that peak flood Magnitude and frequency of drainage infrastructures changes. However, at present, probability rainfall in the drainage facilities design is assumed to Stationary which are not effected from climate change and long-term fluctuation. In the future, flood control safety standard should be reconsidered about the valid viewpoint. In this paper, in order to assess impact of climate change on drainage system, Future climate change information has been extracted from RCP 8.5 Climate Change Scenario for IPCC AR5, then estimated the design rainfall for various durations at return periods. Finally, the design flood estimated through the HEC-HMS Model which is being widely used in the practices, estimated the effect of climate change on the Design Flood of Mihochen basin. The results suggested that the Design Flood increase by climate change. Due to this, the Flood risk of Mihochen basin can be identified to increase comparing the present status.

Estimation of Flood Quantile in Ungauged Watersheds for Flood Damage Analysis Based on Flood Index of Natural Flow (미계측 유역의 홍수피해분석을 위한 자연유량의 홍수지표 기반 확률홍수량 산정)

  • Chae, Byung Seok;Choi, Si Jung;Ahn, Jae Hyun;Kim, Tae-Woong
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.38 no.1
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    • pp.175-182
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    • 2018
  • In this study, flood quantiles were estimated at ungauged watersheds by adjusting the flood quantiles from the design rainfall - runoff analysis (DRRA) method based on regional frequency analysis. Comparing the flood frequency analysis (FFA) and DRRA, it was found that the flood quantiles estimated by the DRRA method were overestimated by 52%. In addition, a practical method was suggested to make an flood index using natural flows to apply the regional frequency analysis (RFA) to ungauged watersheds. Considering the relationships among DRRA, FFA, and RFA, we derived an adjusting formula that can be applied to estimate flood quantiles at ungauged watersheds. We also employed Leave-One-Out Cross-Validation scheme and skill score to verify the method proposed in this study. As a result, the proposed model increased the accuracy by 23.2% compared to the existing DRRA method.

Flood Frequency Analysis by Wakeby and Kappa Distributions Using L-Moments (Wakeby 및 Kappa 분포의 L-모멘트법에 의한 홍수빈도분석)

  • Maeng, Seung-Jin;Lee, Soon-Hyuk;Lee, Hyeon-Gyu;Ryu, Kyong-Sik;Song, Gi-Heon
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.48 no.5
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    • pp.17-27
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    • 2006
  • The objective of this study is to induce the design floods by the methodology of L-moment including test of homogeneity, independence and outlier of the data of annual maximum flood flows for 12 water level gaging stations of South Korea. To select appropriate distribution of the data for annual maximum flood flows, the distributions of Wakeby and Kappa are applied and the appropriateness is judged by Kolmogorov-smirnov (K-S) test. The parameters of selected Wakeby and Kappa distributions are calculated by the method of L-moment and the design floods are induced. Through the comparative analysis using the relative root mean square errors (RRMSE) and relative absolute errors (RAE) of design floods, the result shows that the design floods by Wakeby distribution are closer to the observed data than those obtained by the Kappa distribution.

Estimation of Design Floods Using 3 and 4 Parameter Kappa Distributions (3변수 및 4변수 Kappa 분포에 의한 설계홍수량 추정)

  • Maeng, Seung-Jin;Kim, Byeoung-Jun;Kim, Hyung-San
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.51 no.4
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    • pp.49-55
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    • 2009
  • This paper is to induce design floods through L-moment with 3 and 4 parameter Kappa distributions including test of independence by Wald-Wolfowitz, homogeneity by Mann-Whitney and outlier by Grubbs-Beck on annual maximum flood flows at 9 water level gaging stations in Han, Nakdong and Geum Rivers of South Korea. After analyzing appropriateness of the data of annual maximum flood flows by Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, 3 and 4 Kappa distributions were applied and the appropriateness was judged. The parameters of 3 and 4 Kappa distributions were estimated by L-moment method and the design floods by water level gaging station was calculated. Through the comparative analysis using the relative root mean square errors (RRMSE) and relative absolute errors (RAE) calculated by 3 and 4 parameter Kappa distributions with 4 plotting position formulas, the result showed that the design floods by 4 parameter Kappa distribution with Weibull and Cunnane plotting position formulas are closer to the observed data than those obtained by 3 parameter Kappa distribution with 4 plotting position formulas and 4 parameter Kappa distribution with Hazen and Gringorten plotting position formulas.

Applicability Test of UK Design Flood Estimation Model FEH-ReFH to Korean Namcheon Watershed (영국의 설계홍수량 산정모형인 FEH-ReFH의 국내 남천유역 적용성 평가)

  • Kim, Sang-Ho;Ahn, So-Ra;Jang, Cheol-Hee;Kim, Seong-Joon
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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    • v.16 no.3
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    • pp.68-80
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    • 2013
  • The purpose of this study is to evaluate the applicability of UK design flood estimation model, FEH-ReFH through rainfall-runoff simulation of Korean watershed. For the Nam stream watershed($165.12km^2$), the model was calibrated using 6 storm events. The watershed and hydrological characteristics for the model requirements was prepared by developing input data pre-processors based on open GIS. The parameters of rainfall loss rate and unit hydrograph were calibrated from the observed data. The results can be used for improving and standardizing the Korean design flood estimation method.

Nonlinear runoff during extreme storms in the Seolma-Cheon watershed

  • Kjeldsen, Thomas Rodding;Kim, Hyeonjun;Jang, Cheolhee;Lee, Hyosang
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2015.05a
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    • pp.235-235
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    • 2015
  • This study investigates the impact of event characteristics on runoff dynamics during extreme flood events observed in a $8.5km^2$ experimental watershed located in South Korea. The 37 most extreme flood events with event rainfall in excess of 50 mm were analysed using an event-based rainfall-runoff model; the Revitalised Flood Hydrograph (ReFH) routinely used for design flood estimation in the United Kingdom. The ReFH model was fitted to each event in turn, and links were investigated between each of the two model parameters controlling runoff production and response time, respectively, and event characteristics such as rainfall depth, duration, intensity and also antecedent soil moisture. The results show that the structure of the ReFH model can effectively accommodate any nonlinearity in runoff production, but that the linear unit hydrograph fails to adequately represent a reduction in watershed response time observed for the more extreme events. By linking the unit hydrograph shape directly to rainfall depth, the consequence of the observed nonlinearity in response time is to increase design peak flow by between 50% for a 10 year return period, and up to 80% when considering the probable maximum flood (PMF).

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THE STUDY OF PARAMETRIC AND NONPARAMETRIC MIXTURE DENSITY ESTIMATOR FOR FLOOD FREQUENCY ANALYSIS

  • Moon, Young-Il
    • Water Engineering Research
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    • v.1 no.1
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    • pp.49-61
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    • 2000
  • Magnitude-frequency relationships are used in the design of dams, highway bridges, culverts, water supply systems, and flood control structures. In this paper, possible techniques for analyzing flood frequency at a site are presented. A currently used approach to flood frequency analysis is based on the concept of parametric statistical inference. In this analysis, the assumption is make that the distribution function describing flood data in known. However, such an assumption is not always justified. Even though many people have shown that the nonparametric method provides a better fit to the data than the parometric method and gives more reliable flood estimates. the noparpmetric method implies a small probability in extrapolation beyond the highest observed data in the sample. Therefore, a remedy is presented in this paper by introducing an estimator which mixes parametric and nonparametric density estimate.

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