DOI QR코드

DOI QR Code

The Impact Assessment of Climate Change on Design Flood in Mihochen basin based on the Representative Concentration Pathway Climate Change Scenario

RCP 기후변화시나리오를 이용한 기후변화가 미호천 유역의 설계홍수량에 미치는 영향평가

  • Kim, Byung Sik (Department of Urban & Environmental Disaster Prevention Engineering, Kangwon National University) ;
  • Ha, Sung Ryong (Department of Urban Engineering, Chungbuk National University)
  • 김병식 (국립강원대학교 소방방재학부/방재전문대학원 도시환경방재공학과) ;
  • 하성룡 (국립충북대학교 도시공학과)
  • 투고 : 2012.12.18
  • 심사 : 2013.02.15
  • 발행 : 2013.02.28

초록

Recently, Due to Climate change, extreme rainfall occurs frequently. In many preceding studies, Because of extreme hydrological events changes, it is expected that peak flood Magnitude and frequency of drainage infrastructures changes. However, at present, probability rainfall in the drainage facilities design is assumed to Stationary which are not effected from climate change and long-term fluctuation. In the future, flood control safety standard should be reconsidered about the valid viewpoint. In this paper, in order to assess impact of climate change on drainage system, Future climate change information has been extracted from RCP 8.5 Climate Change Scenario for IPCC AR5, then estimated the design rainfall for various durations at return periods. Finally, the design flood estimated through the HEC-HMS Model which is being widely used in the practices, estimated the effect of climate change on the Design Flood of Mihochen basin. The results suggested that the Design Flood increase by climate change. Due to this, the Flood risk of Mihochen basin can be identified to increase comparing the present status.

최근 기후변화로 인해 이상호우가 발생하고 있으며 많은 선행연구들에서는 극한수문사상의 변화로 인해 배수관련 기반시설물의 첨두홍수 규모와 빈도가 변화 할 것으로 예상하고 있다. 그러나 현재 배수시설물의 설계에 쓰이는 확률강우량은 기후변화나 장기적 변동에 영향을 받지 않는 정상성(stationary)을 가정하고 있어 앞으로 다가올 미래에 지금까지의 치수안전도 기준이 유효한가에 대한 재고가 필요한 시점이다. 본 연구에서는 기후변화가 배수체계에 미치는 영향을 평가하기 위해 최근 IPCC AR5에 대비하여 개발된 RCP 8.5 기후변화시나리오로부터 미래 기후변화정보를 추출하였으며 기후변t화를 고려할 수 있는 비정상성 빈도해석기법을 개발하여 지속시간별 빈도별 설계강우량을 산정하였다. 또한, 설계홍수량을 산정하기 위해 실무에서 널리 이용되고 있는 홍수유출모형인 HEC-HMS 모형을 통해 기후변화가 미호천 유역의 설계홍수량에 미치는 영향을 평가하였다. 그 결과 기후변화로 인해 대상유역의 설계홍수량이 증가됨을 확인 할 수 있었으며 이로 인해 미호천유역의 홍수위험성이 현재에 비해 증가함을 확인 할 수 있었다.

키워드

참고문헌

  1. Alain, M, Ahmadi, K, Guillaume, T, Audrey, P (2010). Future changes in intensity and seasonal pattern of occurrence of daily and multi-day annual maximum precipitation over Canada, J. of Hydrology. 388(3-4), pp. 173-185.
  2. Alison, LK, Nicholas, SR, Richard, GJ (2006). RCM rainfall for UK food frequency estimation. I. Method and validation, J. of Hydrology, 318, pp. 151-162. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2005.06.012
  3. David, C (2006). An application of the UKCIP02 climate change scenario to flood estimation by continuous simulation for a gauged catchment in the northeast of Scotland, UK, J. of hydrology, 328(1-2), pp. 212-226. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2005.12.024
  4. Fowler, HJ, Ekström, M, Kilsby, CG, Jones, PD (2005). New estimates of future change in extreme rainfall across the UK using regional climate model integration. 1. assessment of control climate, J. of Hydrology, 300(1-4), pp. 212-233. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2004.06.017
  5. Hans, T (2007). The influence of climate change on stream flow in danish rivers, J. of Hydrology, 333, pp. 226-238. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2006.08.012
  6. Kim, BK, Kim, BS, Kim, HS (2008). On the change of extreme weather event using extreme indices, J. of Korea Society of Civil Engineers, 28(1B), pp. 41-53.
  7. Kim, BS, Kim, BK, Kyung, MS, Kim, HS (2008). Impact assessment of climate change on extreme rainfall and I-D-F analysis. J. of Korea Water Resources Association, 41(4), pp. 379- 394. https://doi.org/10.3741/JKWRA.2008.41.4.379
  8. Korea Meteorological Adminstration (2011). Climate Change Scenario for IPCC 5th.
  9. Kwon, HH, Kim, BS (2009). Development of statistical downscaling model using nonstationary markov chain, J. of Korea Water Resources Association, 42(3), pp. 213-225. https://doi.org/10.3741/JKWRA.2009.42.3.213
  10. Kyung, MS, Lee, JK, Kim, HS (2009). Downscaling technique of monthly GCM using daily precipitation generator, J. of Korea Society of Civil Engineers, 29(5B), pp. 441-452.
  11. Robert, L, T Adri Buishand (2007). Resampling of regional climate model output for the simulation of extreme river flows, J. of Hydrology, 332, pp. 487-496. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2006.08.006
  12. STARDEX (STAtistical and Regional Dynamical Downscaling of EXtremes for European Regions) (2005). http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/projects/stardex/
  13. Sung, JH, Kim, BS, Kang, HS, Cho, CH (2012). Nonstationary frequency analysis for extreme precipitation based on representative concentration pathways (RCP) climate change scenarios, J. of Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation, 12, pp. 231-244.

피인용 문헌

  1. Analysis of Annual Maximum Daily Rainfall Using RCP Climate Change Scenario in Korean Peninsula vol.15, pp.1, 2015, https://doi.org/10.9798/KOSHAM.2015.15.1.99
  2. Development of distributed inundation routing method using SIMOD method vol.49, pp.7, 2016, https://doi.org/10.3741/JKWRA.2016.49.7.579
  3. Development of IDF Curves Based on RCP4.5 Scenario for 30-Reservoirs in South Korea vol.13, pp.6, 2013, https://doi.org/10.9798/KOSHAM.2013.13.6.145