• 한국농공학회논문집
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• 제56권2호
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• pp.11-23
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• 2014

The impact and adaption on agricultural water resources considering climate change is significant for reservoirs. The change in rainfall patterns and hydrologic factors due to climate change increases the uncertainty of agricultural water supply and demand. The quantitative evaluation method of uncertainty based on agricultural water resource management under future climate conditions is a major concern. Therefore, it is necessary to improve the vulnerability management technique for agricultural water supply based on a probabilistic and stochastic risk evaluation theory. The objective of this study was to analyse the uncertainty of water resources under future climate change using probability distribution function of water supply in agricultural reservoir and demand in irrigation district. The uncertainty of future water resources in agricultural reservoirs was estimated using the time-specific analysis of histograms and probability distributions parameter, for example the location and the scale parameter. According to the uncertainty analysis, the future agricultural water supply and demand in reservoir tends to increase the uncertainty by the low consistency of the results. Thus, it is recommended to prepare a resonable decision making on water supply strategies in terms of using climate change scenarios that reflect different future development conditions.

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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• 제43권1호
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• pp.127-145
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• 2012

One of the most important and challenging steps in seismic vulnerability and performance assessment of highway bridges is the determination of the bridge component damage parameters and their corresponding limit states. These parameters are very essential for defining bridge damage state as well as determining the performance of highway bridges under a seismic event. Therefore, realistic damage limit states are required in the development of reliable fragility curves, which are employed in the seismic risk assessment packages for mitigation purposes. In this article, qualitative damage assessment criteria for ordinary highway bridges are taken into account considering the critical bridge components in terms of proper engineering demand parameters (EDPs). Seismic damage of bridges is strongly related to the deformation of bridge components as well as member internal forces imposed due to seismic actions. A simple approach is proposed for determining the acceptance criteria and damage limit states for use in seismic performance and vulnerability assessment of ordinary highway bridges in Turkey constructed after the 1990s. Physical damage of bridge components is represented by three damage limit states: serviceability, damage control, and collapse prevention. Inelastic deformation and shear force demand of the bent components (column and cap beam), and superstructure displacement are the most common causes for the seismic damage of the highway bridges. Each damage limit state is quantified with respect to the EDPs: i.e. curvature and shear force demand of RC bent components and superstructure relative displacement.

• Earthquakes and Structures
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• 제14권5호
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• pp.437-447
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• 2018

Computational cost is one of the major obstacles for detailed risk analysis of structures. This paper puts forward a methodology for efficient probabilistic seismic loss assessment of structures using the Endurance Time (ET) analysis and the first-order reliability method (FORM). The ET analysis efficiently yields the structural responses for a continuous range of intensities through a single response-history analysis. Taking advantage of this property of ET, FORM is employed to estimate the annual rate of exceedance for the loss components. The proposed approach is an amalgamation of two analysis approaches, ET and FORM, that significantly lower the computational costs. This makes it possible to evaluate the seismic risk of complex systems. The probability distribution of losses due to the structural and non-structural damage as well as injuries and fatalities of a prototype structure are estimated using the proposed methodology. This methodology is an alternative to the prevalent risk analysis framework of the total probability theorem. Hence, the risk estimates of the proposed approach are compared with those from the total probability theorem as a benchmark. The results indicate a satisfactory agreement between the two methods while a significantly lower computational demand for the proposed approach.

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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• 제29권6호
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• pp.689-707
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• 2008

This study presents a method to evaluate the seismic risk of an extradosed bridge with seismic isolators of lead rubber bearings (LRBs), and also to show the effectiveness of the LRB isolators on the extradosed bridge, which is one of the relatively flexible and lightly damped structures in terms of seismic risk. Initially, the seismic vulnerability of a structure is evaluated, and then the seismic hazard of a specific site is rated using an earthquake data set and seismic hazard maps in Korea. Then, the seismic risk of the structure is assessed. The nonlinear seismic analyses are carried out to consider plastic deformation of bridge columns and the nonlinear characteristics of soil foundation. To describe the nonlinear behaviour of a column, the ductility demand is adopted, and the moment-curvature relation of a column is assumed to be bilinear hysteretic. The fragility curves are represented as a log-normal distribution function for column damage, movement of superstructure, and cable yielding. And the seismic hazard at a specific site is estimated using the available seismic hazard maps. The results show that in seismically-isolated extradosed bridges under earthquakes, the effectiveness of the isolators is much more noticeable in the columns than the cables and girders.

• Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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• 제35권3호
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• pp.197-204
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• 2002

Objectives : To evaluate the association between working conditions and adverse pregnancy outcomes in Korea. Methods : We obtained data on health history, lifestyle, housework and Working conditions, such as shift work, hours standing, working time, job demand, lifting at work and at home, between August and September 2000, from self-reported questionnaires. A group of 344, occupationally active, pregnant women from 51 industries were studied. Of the women studied, 328 women were further interviewed by telephone between November 2000 and September 2001. Result : Compared with daytime work, shift work increased the risk for preform birth (an adjusted risk ratio of 2.74, 95% CI=1.02-2.62) and low birth weight (an adjusted risk ratio of 2.74,95% CI=1.02-2.02). A significantly increased risk was found for prolonged standing, with an adjusted risk ratio of preform births of 6.80 (95% CI=2.01-23.0). There were no significant differences in the incidence of spontaneous abortion between the occupational working conditions, with the enception of a previous history of spontaneous abortion. Conclusion : These findings suggest that maternal working conditions, such as shift work and prolonged standing, contribute significantly to preterm birth and low birth weight.

• 해양환경안전학회지
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• 제25권3호
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• pp.298-305
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• 2019

The demand for the revitalization of marine tourism in Busan North Port is increasing due to changes in functions such as an increase in harbor traffic volume and the expansion of marine leisure space in Busan. As a result, Busan City plans to set a phased alleviation target for prohibition of cruise ship operations, and to lift the prohibition of excursion ship operations in North Port following the cancellation of the prohibition of excursion ship operations in South Port in 2017. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the risk of excursion ship operations in Busan North Port by applying the marine traffic assessment index and to examine the possibility of excursion ship operations. For this purpose, port status, marine accidents, and traffic flow of Busan North Port were investigated. In addition, marine traffic assessment indexes, such as traffic congestion, risk based on an ES Model, and IWRAP MkII, a maritime risk assessment tool, were used to assess the risk and possibility of excursion ship operations in Busan North Port. This study can be used as basic data for analyzing the risk factors that may occur when excursion ships are operated in Busan North Port and to define how excursion ships should operate, with related safety measures.

• Earthquakes and Structures
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• 제19권6호
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• pp.471-484
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• 2020

Previous earthquakes show that, structural safety evaluations should include the evaluation of nonstructural components. Failure of nonstructural components can affect the operational capacity of critical facilities, such as hospitals and fire stations, which can cause an increase in number of deaths. Additionally, failure of nonstructural components may result in economic, architectural, and historical losses of community. Accelerations and random vibrations must be under the predefined limitations in structures with high technological equipment, data centers in this case. Failure of server equipment and anchored server racks are investigated in this study. A probabilistic study is completed for a low-rise rigid sample structure. The structure is investigated in two versions, (i) conventional fixed-based structure and (ii) with a base isolation system. Seismic hazard assessment is completed for the selected site. Monte Carlo simulations are generated with selected parameters. Uncertainties in both structural parameters and mechanical properties of isolation system are included in simulations. Anchorage failure and vibration failures are investigated. Different methods to generate fragility curves are used. The site-specific annual hazard curve is used to generate risk curves for two different structures. A risk matrix is proposed for the design of data centers. Results show that base isolation systems reduce the failure probability significantly in higher floors. It was also understood that, base isolation systems are highly sensitive to earthquake characteristics rather than variability in structural and mechanical properties, in terms of accelerations. Another outcome is that code-provided anchorage failure limitations are more vulnerable than the random vibration failure limitations of server equipment.

• 한국안전학회지
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• 제35권6호
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• pp.1-8
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• 2020

In recent years, hydrogen has received much attention as an alternative energy source to fossil fuels. In order to ensure safety from the increasing number of hydrogen refueling stations, prevention methods have been required. In this regard, this study suggested an approach to reduce the risk of hydrogen refueling station by increasing Safety Integrity Level (SIL) for a Steam Methane Reformer (SMR) in On-Site Hydrogen Refueling Station. The worst scenario in the SMR was selected by HAZOP and the required SIL for the worst scenario was identified by LOPA. To verify the required SIL, the PFDavg.(1/RRF) of Safety Instrumented System (SIS) in SMR was calculated by using realistic failure rate data of SIS. Next, several conditions were tested by varying the sensor redundancy and proof test interval reduction and their effects on risk reduction factor were investigated. Consequently, an improved condition, which were the redundancy of two-out-of-three and the proof test interval of twelve months, achieved the tolerable risk resulting in the magnitude of risk reduction factor ten times greater than that of the baseline condition.

• 한국생활과학회지
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• 제12권3호
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• pp.351-362
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• 2003

The goal of this study was to examine the effects of perceived risks toward GMO (Genetically Modified Organism) food on the decision-making to purchase it and demands to reveal its Identity. The major results were as follows. First, consumers strongly perceived the risk toward GMO food, and demanded labeling to identify it. But, many consumers had indecisive in the purchase of GMO food. Second, consumers with high level of perceived risks toward GMO food were more likely not to buy GMO food. In addition, the level of perceived risk was high among consumers who had many children. Finally, consumers with high level of perceived risks toward GMO food were more likely to demand the labelling for identifying GMO food. Consumers who had many children and high level of reliability for labelling food safety strongly demanded to label for revealing GMO food.

• 한국철도학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국철도학회 2011년도 정기총회 및 추계학술대회 논문집
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• pp.2217-2224
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• 2011

The railway industry has well developed with Korea's economic growth as follows - Industrial railway's electrification in 1973, Seoul subway opening in 1974, Busan subway opening in 1985, High speed railway opening in 2004. But LRT as city transportation means has been faced with many difficulties. Looking at the LRT projects implemented until now, there are some issues like the transportation demand, the quality & safety of RS and facilities, the poor management of inhabitant complaints and the failure to maintain policy coherence. They have caused not only the project schedule to extend but also the project costs to increase, even to obstruct the project progress itself in some cases. These risk factors become the obstacle of LRT project's success, but it is said that more basic problem is the lack of risk management capability of competent authorities in railway business. Under these circumstance, Railway specialized Authorities and Local government have cooperated to identify various risk factors and to prepare the measures in advance, so we try to introduce this cooperation case, which will help other local government as an useful reference.