• Title/Summary/Keyword: Demand prediction algorithm

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A zeroblock coding algorithm for subband image compression

  • Park, Sahng-Ho
    • The Journal of Korean Institute of Communications and Information Sciences
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    • v.22 no.11
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    • pp.2375-2380
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    • 1997
  • The need for developing effective coding techniques for various multimedia services is increasing in order to meet the demand for image data. In this paper, a zeroblock coding algorithm is proposed for progressive transmission of images. The zeroblock coding algorithm is constructed as an embedded coding so that the encoding and decoding process can be terminated at any point and allowing reasonable image quality. Some features of zeroblock coding algorithm are 1) coding of subband images by prediction of the insignificance of blocks across subband leels, 2) aset of sate transition rules for representing the significance map of blocks, and 3) block coding by vector quantization using a multiband codebook consisting of several subcodebooks dedicated for each subband at a given threshold.

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Machine Learning Based Capacity Prediction Model of Terminal Maneuvering Area (기계학습 기반 접근관제구역 수용량 예측 모형)

  • Han, Sanghyok;Yun, Taegyeong;Kim, Sang Hyun
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Aeronautical & Space Sciences
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    • v.50 no.3
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    • pp.215-222
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    • 2022
  • The purpose of air traffic flow management is to balance demand and capacity in the national airspace, and its performance relies on an accurate capacity prediction of the airport or airspace. This paper developed a regression model that predicts the number of aircraft actually departing and arriving in a terminal maneuvering area. The regression model is based on a boosting ensemble learning algorithm that learns past aircraft operational data such as time, weather, scheduled demand, and unfulfilled demand at a specific airport in the terminal maneuvering area. The developed model was tested using historical departure and arrival flight data at Incheon International Airport, and the coefficient of determination is greater than 0.95. Also, the capacity of the terminal maneuvering area of interest is implicitly predicted by using the model.

Development of Vehicle Arrival Time Prediction Algorithm Based on a Demand Volume (교통수요 기반의 도착예정시간 산출 알고리즘 개발)

  • Kim, Ji-Hong;Lee, Gyeong-Sun;Kim, Yeong-Ho;Lee, Seong-Mo
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.23 no.2
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    • pp.107-116
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    • 2005
  • The information on travel time in providing the information of traffic to drivers is one of the most important data to control a traffic congestion efficiently. Especially, this information is the major element of route choice of drivers, and based on the premise that it has the high degree of confidence in real situation. This study developed a vehicle arrival time prediction algorithm called as "VAT-DV" for 6 corridors in total 6.1Km of "Nam-san area trffic information system" in order to give an information of congestion to drivers using VMS, ARS, and WEB. The spatial scope of this study is 2.5km~3km sections of each corridor, but there are various situations of traffic flow in a short period because they have signalized intersections in a departure point and an arrival point of each corridor, so they have almost characteristics of interrupted and uninterrupted traffic flow. The algorithm uses the information on a demand volume and a queue length. The demand volume is estimated from density of each points based on the Greenburg model, and the queue length is from the density and speed of each point. In order to settle the variation of the unit time, the result of this algorithm is strategically regulated by importing the AVI(Automatic Vehicle Identification), one of the number plate matching methods. In this study, the AVI travel time information is composed by Hybrid Model in order to use it as the basic parameter to make one travel time in a day using ILD to classify the characteristics of the traffic flow along the queue length. According to the result of this study, in congestion situation, this algorithm has about more than 84% degree of accuracy. Specially, the result of providing the information of "Nam-san area traffic information system" shows that 72.6% of drivers are available.

New Algorithm for Demand Power Prediction Using Newton Extrapolation Method (Newton 보외법에 의한 수요전력 예측 알고리즘)

  • Chung, Dae-Won
    • Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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    • 2001.07d
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    • pp.2782-2784
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    • 2001
  • 최대수요전력 제어기의 실시간 부하전력예측을 위하여 Newton 보외법을 적용하였다. 기존의 선형기법에 비하여 실제 데이터에 가까운 부하전력을 예측할 수 있었다. 이 새로운 알고리즘을 적용함으로써 부하예측을 보다 정확히 할 수 있어 빈번한 부하차단이나 우발적인 차단을 방지하여 설비 운용의 신뢰성을 높일 수 있다. 개선된 알고리즘은 마이컴으로 제어되는 실제 시스템에 적용하여 보다 나은 성능을 얻을 수 있었다.

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Development of Real Coded Genetic Algorithm for Multiperiod Optimization

  • Chang, Young-Jung;Song, Sang-Ok;Song, Ji-Ho;Dongil Shin;S. Ando
    • 제어로봇시스템학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 2000.10a
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    • pp.396-396
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    • 2000
  • Multiperiod optimization is the key step to tackle the supply chain optimization problems. Taking supply and demand uncertainty or prediction into consideration during the process synthesis phase leads to the maximization of the profit for the long range time horizon. In this study, new algorithm based on the Genetic Algorithms is proposed for multiperiod optimization formulated in MINLP, GDP and hybrid MINLP/GDP. In this study, the focus is given especially on the design of the Genetic Algorithm suitable to handle disjunctive programming with the same level of MINLP handling capability. Hybridization with the Simulated Annealing is tried. and many heuristics are adopted for this purpose.

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Time Series Forecast of Maximum Electrical Power using Lyapunov Exponent (Lyapunov 지수를 이용한 전력 수요 시계열 예측)

  • Park, Jae-Hyeon;Kim, Young-Il;Choo, Yeon-Gyu
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Information and Communication Engineering
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    • v.13 no.8
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    • pp.1647-1652
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    • 2009
  • Generally the neural network and the fuzzy compensative algorithm are applied to forecast the time series for power demand with a characteristic of non-linear dynamic system, but it has a few prediction errors relatively. It also makes long term forecast difficult for sensitivity on the initial condition. On this paper, we evaluate the chaotic characteristic of electrical power demand with analysis methods of qualitative and quantitative and perform a forecast simulation of electrical power demand in regular sequence, attractor reconstruction, time series forecast for multi dimension using Lyapunov exponent quantitatively. We compare simulated results with the previous method and verify that the purpose one being more practice and effective than it.

Time Series Forecast of Maximum Electrical Power using Lyapunov Exponent (Lyapunov 지수를 이용한 전력 수요 시계열 예측)

  • Choo, Yeongyu;Park, Jae-hyeon;Kim, Young-il
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Information and Commucation Sciences Conference
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    • 2009.05a
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    • pp.171-174
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    • 2009
  • Generally the neural network and the fuzzy compensative algorithm are applied to forecast the time series for power demand with a characteristic of non-linear dynamic system, but it has a few prediction errors relatively. It also makes long term forecast difficult for sensitivity on the initial condition. On this paper, we evaluate the chaotic characteristic of electrical power demand with analysis methods of qualitative and quantitative and perform a forecast simulation of electrical power demand in regular sequence, attractor reconstruction, time series forecast for multi dimension using Lyapunov exponent quantitatively. We compare simulated results with the previous method and verify that the purpose one being more practice and effective than it.

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An Ensemble Model for Machine Failure Prediction (앙상블 모델 기반의 기계 고장 예측 방법)

  • Cheon, Kang Min;Yang, Jaekyung
    • Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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    • v.43 no.1
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    • pp.123-131
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    • 2020
  • There have been a lot of studies in the past for the method of predicting the failure of a machine, and recently, a lot of researches and applications have been generated to diagnose the physical condition of the machine and the parts and to calculate the remaining life through various methods. Survival models are also used to predict plant failures based on past anomaly cycles. In particular, special machine that reflect the fluid flow and process characteristics of chemical plants are connected to hundreds or thousands of sensors, so there are not many factors that need to be considered, such as process and material data as well as application of derivative variables. In this paper, the data were preprocessed through time series anomaly detection based on unsupervised learning to predict the abnormalities of these special machine. Next, clustering results reflecting clustering-based data characteristics were applied to produce additional variables, and a learning data set was created based on the history of past facility abnormalities. Finally, the prediction methodology based on the supervised learning algorithm was applied, and the model update was confirmed to improve the accuracy of the prediction of facility failure. Through this, it is expected to improve the efficiency of facility operation by flexibly replacing the maintenance time and parts supply and demand by predicting abnormalities of machine and extracting key factors.

Development of Power Demand Forecasting Algorithm Using GMDH (GMDH를 이용한 전력 수요 예측 알고리즘 개발)

  • Lee, Dong-Chul;Hong, Yeon-Chan
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Intelligent Systems
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    • v.13 no.3
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    • pp.360-365
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    • 2003
  • In this paper, GMDH(Croup Method of Data Handling) algorithm which is proved to be more excellent in efficiency and accuracy of practical use of data is applied to electric power demand forecasting. As a result, it became much easier to make a choice of input data and make an exact prediction based on a lot of data. Also, we considered both economy factors(GDP, export, import, number of employee, number of economically active population and consumption of oil) and climate factors(average temperature) when forecasting. We assumed target forecast period from first quarter 1999 to first quarter 2001, and suggested more accurate forecasting method of electric power demand by using 3-step computer simulation processes(first process for selecting optimum input period, second for analyzing time relation of input data and forecast value, and third for optimizing input data) for improvement of forecast precision. The proposed method can get 0.96 percent of mean error rate at target forecast period.

Short-Term Water Demand Forecasting Algorithm Using AR Model and MLP (AR모델과 MLP를 이용한 단기 물 수요 예측 알고리즘 개발)

  • Choi, Gee-Seon;Yu, Chool;Jin, Ryuk-Min;Yu, Seong-Keun;Chun, Myung-Geun
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Intelligent Systems
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    • v.19 no.5
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    • pp.713-719
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    • 2009
  • In this paper, we develope a water demand forecasting algorithm using AR(Auto-regressive) and MLP(Multi-layer perceptron). To show effectiveness of the proposed method, we analyzed characteristics of time-series data collected in "A" purification plant at Jeon-Buk province during 2007-2008, and then performed the proposed method with various input factors selected through various analyses. As noted in experimental results, the performance of three types model such as multi-regressive, AR(Auto-regressive), and AR+MLP(Auto-regressive + Multi-layer perceptron) show 5.1%, 3.8%, and 3.6% with respect to MAPE(Mean Absolute Percentage Error), respectively. Thus, it is noted that the proposed method can be used to predict short-term water demand for the efficient operation of a water purification plant.