• Title/Summary/Keyword: Demand forecasting

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The Analysis on the Forecasting Demand & the Implementation of IT Systems for SMEs (중소기업 정보시스템 활용실태와 수요 전망)

  • Hyoung, Jun-Ho;Kim, Moon-Sun;Hwang, Soon-Hwan
    • Journal of Information Technology Services
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    • v.3 no.2
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    • pp.1-8
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    • 2004
  • Recently, most managers of Small & Medium Enterprises(SMEs) think that all problem of a company is solved if only implementation of ERP or e-business. But it's too risky. Technology of IT is developing so radical, so managers didn't have enough time to consider what system is appropriate in their business process and how implement information system is when they establish Information System. This Study addresses the present Information System that operating and needed for SMEs based on the Value Chain of IS. Thus through the prediction on the consequence of IS implementation, we could cut down unnecessary investment cost and support core competence of a company. Next time, the study on the classification of more detail IS associated in SME's performance is required.

Prediction technique for system marginal price using wavelet transform (웨이브릿 변환을 이용한 발전시스템 한계원가 예측기법)

  • Kim, Chang-Il;Kim, Bong-Tae;Kim, Woo-Hyun;Yu, In-Keun
    • Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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    • 1999.11b
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    • pp.210-212
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    • 1999
  • This paper proposes a novel wavelet transform based technique for prediction of System Marginal Price(SMP). In this paper, Daubechies D1(haar), D2, D4 wavelet transforms are adopted to predict SMP and the numerical results reveal that certain wavelet components can effectively be used to identify the SMP characteristics with relation to the system demand in electric power systems. The wavelet coefficients associated with certain frequency and time localisation are adjusted using the conventional multiple regression method and then reconstructed in order to predict the SMP on the next scheduling day through a five-scale synthesis technique. The outcome of the study clearly indicates that the proposed wavelet transform approach can be used as an attractive and effective means for the SMP forecasting.

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An Economic Analysis on FMS for FA (공동자동화를 위한 FMS의 경제성 평가에 관한 연구)

  • Gang, Yeong-Sik;Ham, Hyo-Jun
    • Journal of Korean Society for Quality Management
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    • v.19 no.1
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    • pp.141-150
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    • 1991
  • This paper is aimed to construct a CIM(Computer Intergrated Manufacturing) model through optimal flexible manufacturing systems for factory automation in order to provide higher productivity. This paper provides a ease through an analytical method to construct flexible manufacturing systems for factory automation. The contents of this paper include forecasting of demands which analyze variation of demand using Winter's model, line balancing utilizing Lanked Positional Weight Method, and a case analysis through simulation by Monte Carlor Method. The result shows the manpower and net present value of investment have decreased 42% and 19.6%, respectively, and yearly net profit has increased 30%.

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The Forecasting Model of the Change in Food Balance and Nutrient Intake under the Economic Growth (경제성장에 따른 식품수급 및 영양소 섭취 변화의 예측 모형)

  • Lee, Jong-Mee
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Food Culture
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    • v.5 no.4
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    • pp.481-485
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    • 1990
  • This study is designed to forecast the characteristics in food consumption patterns under per capita GNP growth. Ordinary least square(OLS)method was employed as analyzing technique. Equation was $Y=a_0+a_1X$, in which X was per capita GNP and Y were Engel coefficient, food supply, energy supply, nutrient intake and ratio of self-supply of food. The result obtained indicates that the intake of nutrient such as protein and fat will be increased, and wheat, corn and legume are expected to be imported wholly due to lower ratio of self-supply, and rice will be over-supplied continually. Therefore, the relevant policy of government must be established in the field of supply and demand of food, and the research of sound national health should be done.

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Generator Scheduling and Bidding Strategies in Competitive Electricity Market (경쟁시장에서 유지보수계획 및 입찰전략 수립에 관한 연구)

  • Ko, Young-Jun;Lee, Hyo-Sang;Shin, Dong-Joon;Kim, Jin-O
    • Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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    • 2001.11b
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    • pp.429-431
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    • 2001
  • The vertically integrated power industry was divided into six generation companies and one market operator, where electricity trading was launched at power exchange. In this environment, the profits of each generation companies are guaranteed according to utilization of their own generation equipments. This paper represents on generator maintenance scheduling and efficient bidding strategies for generation equipments through the calculation of the contract and the application of each generator cost function based on the past demand forecasting error and market operating data.

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The Study on the Automated Meter Reading using Low Voltage Power (저압 배전선 반송 방식의 원격검침 실증 연구)

  • Park, Sang-Man;Ha, Bok-Nam;Lee, Joong-Ho;Cho, Nam-Hun;Kim, Myong-Soo
    • Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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    • 1997.07c
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    • pp.985-987
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    • 1997
  • AMR(Automated Meter Reading) has been considered to solve the lack of meter mem caused by the rise of cost, inefficiency of manual meter reading. Demand forecasting and efficient management of facilities can be accomplished by increasing meter reading efficiency and correcting various data. In this paper, we introduce AMR system using LV PLC in KANG-DONG blanch office of KEPCO.

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DSS Architectures to Support Data Mining Activities for Supply Chain Management (데이터 마이닝을 활용한 공급사슬관리 의사결정지원시스템의 구조에 관한 연구)

  • Jhee, Won-Chul;Suh, Min-Soo
    • Asia pacific journal of information systems
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    • v.8 no.3
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    • pp.51-73
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    • 1998
  • This paper is to evaluate the application potentials of data mining in the areas of Supply Chain Management (SCM) and to suggest the architectures of Decision Support Systems (DSS) that support data mining activities. We first briefly introduce data mining and review the recent literatures on SCM and then evaluate data mining applications to SCM in three aspects: marketing, operations management and information systems. By analyzing the cases about pricing models in distribution channels, demand forecasting and quality control, it is shown that artificial intelligence techniques such as artificial neural networks, case-based reasoning and expert systems, combined with traditional analysis models, effectively mine the useful knowledge from the large volume of SCM data. Agent-based information system is addressed as an important architecture that enables the pursuit of global optimization of SCM through communication and information sharing among supply chain constituents without loss of their characteristics and independence. We expect that the suggested architectures of intelligent DSS provide the basis in developing information systems for SCM to improve the quality of organizational decisions.

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A Study on the Trip Assignment Model for GIS Transportation Component Development (GIS 교통 컴포넌트 개발을 위한 통행배정모형 구축)

  • Lee, Kyung-So;Rhee, Sung-Mo;Kim, Chang-Ho
    • Journal of Korean Society for Geospatial Information Science
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    • v.8 no.1 s.15
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    • pp.65-72
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    • 2000
  • Travel demand forecasting is the important process of transportation policy and planning, especially trip assignment is also important because it finds deficiency of network GIS can be applied to transportation due to its various merits. Recently Program development environment is changed to component-based and transportation-component is necessary. This study evolves in implementing trip assignment model with GIS and tries to apply the system to the Cheongju City.

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The Effective Demand Selection Method for Satisfying Service Levels in Supply Chains (서비스 수준을 고려한 공급 사슬 내의 효과적인 수요 선택 방안에 관한 연구)

  • 박기태;권익현;김성식
    • Proceedings of the Korean Operations and Management Science Society Conference
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    • 2004.10a
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    • pp.611-614
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    • 2004
  • 현실에서의 공급사슬에 대한 분배 계획은 수요예측(forecasting)을 통해 얻어진 확률적인 분포(stochastic distribution)를 바탕으로 수립된다. 그러나 이러한 수요예측 값은 특정한 한 값을 갖는 것이 아니라 일반적으로 특정한 범위로써 존재하며 이 범위 내의 한 값을 의사 결정자가 선택하고 이를 바탕으로 분배 계획을 수립하게 된다. 하지만 수요의 불확실한 특성 때문에 효과적인 값을 결정하는 것은 쉬운 일이 아니다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 확률적인 형태의 다양한 수요 분포 형태를 정의하고, 이러한 여러 가지 분포 하에서 수요 선택에 영향을 주는 요소들을 판명한다. 이를 바탕으로 적절한 실험계획과 모의실험을 통해서 효과적인 수요선택 방안을 도출한다. 이와 같은 접근 방법을 통해 다양한 실험 조건 하에서 공급 사슬 내의 총 비용을 최소화 시키면서 동시에 목표로 하는 서비스 수준(target service level)을 만족하는 수요 선택 방안을 제시한다.

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A Study on Spare Parts Demand Forecasting Using Artificial Neural Network (인공신경망을 이용한 수리부속 간헐적 수요예측)

  • Oh, Byung-Hoon;Kim, Hyeon-Cheol
    • Proceedings of the Korea Information Processing Society Conference
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    • 2017.11a
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    • pp.824-826
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    • 2017
  • 수요예측은 적정 재고를 유지하기 위해 선행되어야 할 중요한 부분이라 할 수 있다. 수요예측의 정확도 향상이 적정한 재고를 유지하기 위한 토대가 된다. 하지만 수요예측을 어렵게 만드는 주요 원인 중 하나인 간헐적인 수요는 기존 시계열 기법으로 예측하는데 있어 어려움이 크다. 본 연구에서는 인공지능의 한 기법인 인공신경망을 적용하여 간헐적 품목에 대한 수요예측을 실시하였다. 6개의 기법을 통해 실험을 실시한 결과 인공신경망이 가장 오차가 적은 우수한 결과를 나타냈다.