• 한국정보시스템학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국정보시스템학회 2000년도 추계학술대회
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• pp.36-44
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• 2000

The purpose of this study is to introduce a more efficient forecasting technique, which could help result the reduction of cost in removing the waste of airline in-flight meals. We will use a neural network approach known to many researchers as the “Outstanding Forecasting Technique”. We employed a multi-layer perceptron neural network using a backpropagation algorithm. We also suggested using other related information to improve the forecasting performances of neural networks. We divided the data into three sets, which are training data set, cross validation data set, and test data set. Time lag variables are still employed in our model according to the general view of time series forecasting. We measured the accuracy of our model by “Mean Square Error”(MSE). The suggested model proved most excellent in serving economy class in-flight meals. Forecasting the exact amount of meals needed for each airline could reduce the waste of meals and therefore, lead to the reduction of cost. Better yet, it could enhance the cost competition of each airline, keep the schedules on time, and lead to better service.

• 대한전기학회논문지
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• 제32권5호
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• pp.183-188
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• 1983

This paper deals with short-term load forecasting. The load model is represented by the state variable form to exploit the Kalman filter technique. The load model is derived from Taylor series expansion and remainder term is considered as noise term. In order to solve recursive filter form, among various algorithm of solving Kalman filter, this paper uses exponential data weighting technique. This paper also deals with the asymptotic stability of filter. Case studies are carried out for the hourly power demand forecasting of the Korea electrical system.

• KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
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• 제7권11호
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• pp.2676-2689
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• 2013

Due to increased consumption of energy in the building environment, the building energy management systems (BEMS) solution has been developed to achieve energy saving and efficiency. However, because of the shortage of building energy management specialists and incompatibility among the energy management systems of different vendors, the BEMS solution can only be applied to limited buildings individually. To solve these problems, we propose a building cluster based remote energy monitoring and management (EMM) system and its functionalities and roles of each sub-system to simultaneously manage the energy problems of several buildings. We also introduce a novel energy demand forecasting algorithm by using past energy consumption data. Extensive performance evaluation study shows that the proposed regression based energy demand forecasting model is well fitted to the actual energy consumption model, and it also outperforms the artificial neural network (ANN) based forecasting model.

• 정보학연구
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• 제5권4호
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• pp.173-183
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• 2002

본 논문에서는 무선통신 서비스를 위한 필수 자원인 주파수의 수요예측 방법론을 제시한다. 이는 효율적인 국내 전파자원 관리를 위해 필수적인 업무이다. 제안한 방법론은 크게 기본 서비스군 분류, 유효 트래픽 도출 및 주파수 수요예측의 세단계로 구성된다. 기본 서비스군 분류 단계에서는 기존의 주파수 수요예측 방법론의 결과를 이용하여 서비스를 Wide area mobile, Short range radio, Fixed wireless access 및 Digital video broadcasting으로 나누며, 유효 트래픽 도출 단계에서는 총 트래픽을 erlang 및 bps 단위로 환산하여 구하는 방법을 제안한다. 구체적으로 유효 트래픽 도출 단계에서는 사용자 분류, 기본 어플리케이션 분류 및 어플리케이션별 유효 트래픽 추정의 과정을 거친다. 끝으로, 주파수 수요예측 단계에서 각 서비스군별로 서로 다른 주파수 수요예측 방법론을 제시한다.

• 경영과학
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• 제33권3호
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• pp.105-117
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• 2016

In this paper, we present empirical testing result to examine the validity of inbound supply and outbound demand risk factors in the sense of early predicting the firm's bankruptcy risk level. The risk factors are drawn from industry uncertainty attributes categorized as uncertainties of input market (inbound supply), and product market (outbound demand). On the basis of input-output table, industry level inbound and outbound sectors are identified to formalize supply chain structures, relevant inbound and outbound uncertainty attributes and corresponding risk factors. Subsequently, publicly available macro-economic indicators are used to appropriately quantify these risk factors. Total 68 industry level bankruptcy risk forecasting results are presented with the average R-square scores of between 53.4% and 37.1% with varying time lag. The findings offers useful insights to incorporate supply chain risk to the body of firm's bankruptcy risk level prediction literature.

• 지능정보연구
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• 제3권1호
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• pp.31-45
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• 1997

To date, research on data mining has focused primarily on individual techniques to su, pp.rt knowledge discovery. However, the integration of elementary learning techniques offers a promising strategy for challenging a, pp.ications such as forecasting nonlinear processes. This paper explores the utility of an integrated a, pp.oach which utilizes a second-order learning process. The a, pp.oach is compared against individual techniques relating to a neural network, case based reasoning, and induction. In the interest of concreteness, the concepts are presented through a case study involving the prediction of network traffic for video-on-demand.

• 대한전기학회:학술대회논문집
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• 대한전기학회 2004년도 하계학술대회 논문집 A
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• pp.722-724
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• 2004

Demand estimates in electric power systems have traditionally consisted of time-series analyses over long time periods. The resulting database consisted of huge amounts of data that were then analyzed to create the various coefficients used to forecast power demand. In this research, we take advantage of universally used analysis techniques analysis, but we also use easily available data-mining techniques to analyze patterns of days and special days(holidays, etc.). We then present a new method for estimating and forecasting power flow using decision tree analysis. And because analyzing the relationship between the estimate and power system ceiling Trices currently set by the Korea Power Exchange. We included power system ceiling prices in our estimate coefficients and estimate method.

• 대한전기학회:학술대회논문집
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• 대한전기학회 2002년도 하계학술대회 논문집 A
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• pp.432-434
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• 2002

Recently, electricity demand of remote islands in Korea has been rapidly increased. It's mainly due to increase of income level resulted from economic development. Electricity demand patterns and characteristics in remote islands are different from those of mainland in point of time of peak load, demographic and industrial characteristics of islands, and so on. The optimal power supply in remote islands has a important relationship with accurate analysis of island's load characteristics, the adoption of relevant load forecasting technique, and optimal power facilities reflecting local's electricity demand characteristics. This paper shows the recent load pattern and characteristics, load forecasting using probability distribution, and the perpetration of relevant power facilities in remote islands.

• 한국게임학회 논문지
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• 제4권1호
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• pp.34-40
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• 2004

본 연구는 새로운 게임제품을 시장에 출시하는 기업들의 수요예측에 도움을 줄 수 있는 Bass 모델을 소개하고 이의 타당성을 보여주고자 한다. 마케팅 분야에서 타당성을 인정받고 있는 Bass 모델을 게임제품의 수요예측에 적용해 본 결과 Bass모델을 응용한 게임제품의 수요예측은 아케이드 게임, 온라인 게임의 경우 수요예측에 있어서 정확도가 높은 것으로 분석되었다.

• 대한전기학회:학술대회논문집
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• 대한전기학회 1998년도 하계학술대회 논문집 C
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• pp.1073-1075
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• 1998

This paper presents the method of parameter estimation of diffusion model for monitoring Demand-Side Management Program. Bass diffusion model was applied in this paper, which has different values according to parameters ; coefficients of innovation, imitation and potential adopters. Though it is very important to estimate three parameter, there are no empirical results in practice. Thus, this paper presents the method of parameter estimation in case of few data with constraints to reduce the possibility of bad estimation. The constraints are empirical results or expert's decision. Case studies show the diffusion curves of high-efficient lighting and also forecasting of the peak value for power demand considering diffusion of high-efficient lighting, the feedback and least-square parameter estimation method used in this paper enable us to evaluate the status and forecasting of the effect of DSM program.