• Korean Management Science Review
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• v.1
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• pp.35-45
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• 1984

This paper deals with the case study of the establishment of decision supporting system in shipbuilding industory. Facts or information of shipbuilding, sales, finance, production strategic planning in shipbuilding industry are considered. General transportation model for shipyard production schedule is formulated, and shipbuilding demand forecasting scheme is also introduced. This paper shows the several methods of DSS in shipbuilding industry. But production schedule strategic planning system by OR technique is emphasized. For the realization of DSS in shipbuilding industry, another efforts (data gathering and programming etc.) should be given on the basis of these methods.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.11 no.3
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• pp.21-30
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• 1993

When the cars were not popular, the majority of travellers used the tour-bus. As the total number of cars increases every year, the pattern of travelling means is changing. This paper develops statistical models to predict the number of cars, to estimate the macket share of road transportation between tour-bus and cars.

• ETRI Journal
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• v.30 no.3
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• pp.469-479
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• 2008

This study analyzes factors affecting the competitiveness of broadband over power line communication (BPLC) and predicts demand for the service, based on quantitative information about consumer preferences drawn from a survey of Korean consumers. Findings from the estimation suggest that, although consumers value some beneficial features of BPLC, to be competitive the speed and stability of its data transmission needs to be improved. Moreover, on the basis of a market simulation, we expect BPLC to occupy only a small portion of Korea's Internet access market in the future, a finding we expect would hold true for other developed countries whose Internet access markets are already mature.

• Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Intelligent Systems Conference
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• 2001.12a
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• pp.27-30
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• 2001

A inventory management system of the manufacturing industry has a model of different kinds according to the objective and the situation. A inventory management system needs superior system technique in demand forecast, economical efficiency, reliability and application for stable supply of the finished goods, the raw materials and the parts. This paper proposes a demand forecast method based on fuzzy structured neural network, which uses min-operation and trapezoid membership function of fuzzy rules. So we can have an intelligent inventory management system for optimized decision-making of forecasting data with expert's opinion in fuzzy environment. This inventory management system used an intelligence agent and it could be adapted to asystemenvironmentchangeinorder.

• Proceedings of the Korean Operations and Management Science Society Conference
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• 2003.11a
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• pp.74-78
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• 2003

In this paper, we have developed a technology-service relationship model which describes the diffusion process of a group of services and relevant technologies, and have applied the developed model to the prediction of the number of subscribers to the next generation mobile service. The technology-service relationship model developed in this paper incorporates the developing process of relevant technologies, a supply-side factor, into the diffusion process of specific services, while many diffusion models and multi-generation diffusion models in previous researches are mainly reflect the demand-side factors. So, the proposed model could effectively applied to the telecommunication services where the developing of the relevant technologies are very essential to the service penetration. In our application, the proposed model provides a competitive substitution between the next generation mobile service and the traditional mobile service.

• IE interfaces
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• v.17 no.1
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• pp.56-70
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• 2004

Expanding product variety and high customer service provision place an enormous burden on demand forecasting and the matching of supply with demand in a supply chain. Postponement of product differentiation has been found to be powerful means to improve supply chain performance in the presence of increasing product variety. Delaying the point of product differentiation implies that the process would not commit the work-in-process into a particular finished product until a later point. This paper reviews the recent analytical models that quantify the value of delayed product differentiation. We conclude the literature review by summarizing and synthesizing the economic evaluation of the postponement and outline directions for future research.

• Korean Management Science Review
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• v.23 no.3
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• pp.1-11
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• 2006

This study investigates empirically on the business analysis of fixed mobile convergence telecommunication service. As for the stage of empirical analysis, the process was carried out in the order elaboration of a test model, selection of sample, empirical analysis and interpretation of result. We report our Preliminary results on the fixed mobile convergence telecommunication service demand pattern forecasting by Bass model. The results show that the fixed mobile convergence telecommunication service may sustain profitability over the next ten years in the market. In conclusion, the practical implication of the result attained by this study is that in order to create a fixed mobile convergence in the korean business world, practical tools such as WiBro service is no less important than fixed service and Mobile service, and that users may be rightfully encouraged to adopt WiBro service.

• Journal of Korean Institute of Industrial Engineers
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• v.27 no.4
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• pp.337-344
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• 2001

As cost invested in developing the specified technology is increasing, investors are paying more attention to cost to benefit analysis (CBA). One of the basic elements of CBA for new technological development is the diffusion pattern of demand of such technology. Many studies of technology evaluation have adopted a single generation model to simulate the diffusion pattern of demand. This approach, however, considers the diffusion of the new technology itself, not taking into account a newer generation that can replace the one just invented. In this paper, we show how a multi-generation technology diffusion model can be applied for more accurate CBA for information technology. Monte Carlo simulation is performed to find influential factors on the CBA of a Cybernetic Building System.

• Journal of Korean Institute of Industrial Engineers
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• v.39 no.5
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• pp.412-421
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• 2013

Motion picture industry is one of the most representative fields in the cultural industry and has experienced constant growth both worldwide and within domestic markets. However, little research has been undertaken for diffusion patterns of motion pictures, whereas various issues such as demand forecasting and success factor analysis have been widely explored. To analyze diffusion patterns, we adopted extended Bass model to reflect the potential demand of movies. Four clusters of selected movies were derived by k-means clustering method with criteria of opening strength and profitability and then compared by their diffusion patterns. Results indicated that movies with high profitability and medium opening strength are most significantly influenced by word of mouth effect, while low profitability movies display nearly monotonic decreasing diffusion patterns with noticeable initial adoption rates and relatively early peak points in their runs.

• Proceedings of the Korean Operations and Management Science Society Conference
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• 2006.11a
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• pp.161-164
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• 2006

The sales of consumer durables are composed of first time purchases and replacement purchases. Since the sales for most mature durable products are dominated by replacement sales, it is necessary to develop a model incorporating replacement component of sales in order to forecast total sales accurately. Several single product diffusion models incorporating replacement demand have been developed, but research addressing the multi-product diffusion models has not considered replacement sales. In this paper, we propose a model based on consumer choice behavior that simultaneously captures the diffusion and the replacement process for multi-product relationships. The proposed model enables the division of replacement sales into repurchase by previous users and transition purchase by users of different products. As a result, the model allows the partitioning of the total sales according to the customer groups (first-time buyers, repurchase buyers, and transition buyers), which allows companies to develop their production and marketing plans based on their customer mix. We apply the proposed model to the Korean automobile market, and compare the fitting and forecasting performance with other Bass-type multi-product models.