• Asia-Pacific Journal of Business
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• v.14 no.4
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• pp.343-356
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• 2023

Purpose - This study attempted to predict short-term transportation demand using trains and getting off at Gangchon Station. Through this, we present numerical data necessary for future tourist inflow policies in the Gangchon area of Chuncheon and present related implications. Design/methodology/approach - This study collected and analyzed transportation demand data from Gangchon Station using the Gyeongchun Line and ITX-Cheongchun Train from January 2014 to August 2023. Winters exponential smoothing model and ARIMA model were used to reflect the trend and seasonality of the raw data. Findings - First, transportation demand using trains to get off at Gangchon Station in Chuncheon City is expected to show a continuous increase from 2020 until the forecast period is 2024. Second, the number of passengers getting off at Gangchon Station was found to be highest in May and October. Research implications or Originality - As transportation networks are improving nationwide and people's leisure culture is changing, the number of tourists visiting the Gangchon area in Chuncheon City is continuously decreasing. Therefore, in this study, a time series model was used to predict short-term transportation demand alighting at Gangchon Station. In order to calculate more accurate forecasts, we compared models to find an appropriate model and presented forecasts.

• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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• v.26 no.4
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• pp.519-547
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• 2017

This paper explores whether it is better to forecast city gas demand in Korea using national level data directly or, alternatively, construct forecasts from regional demand models and then aggregate these regional forecasts. In the regional model, we consider gas demand for Seoul metropolitan and the other local areas. Our forecast evaluation exercise for 2013-2016 shows the regional forecast model generally outperforms the national forecasting model. This result comes from the fact that the dynamic properties of each region's gas demands can be better taken into account in the regional demand model. More specifically, the share of residential gas demand in the Seoul metropolitan area is above 50%, and subsequently this demand is heavily influenced by temperature fluctuations. Conversely, the dominant portion of regional gas demand is due to industrial gas consumption. Moreover, electricity is regarded as a substitute for city gas in the residential sector, and industrial gas competes with certain oil products. Our empirical results show that a regional demand forecast model can be an effective alternative to the demand model based on nation-wide gas consumption and that regional information about gas demand is also useful for analyzing sectoral gas consumption.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.39 no.5
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• pp.605-612
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• 2019

Traditionally, travel demand forecasts have been conducted based on the data collected by a survey of individual travel behavior, and their limitations such as the accuracy of travel demand forecasts have been also raised. In recent, advancements in information and communication technologies are enabling new datasets in travel demand forecasting research. Such datasets include data from global positioning system (GPS) devices, data from mobile phone signalling, and data from call detail record (CDR), and they are used for reducing the errors in travel demand forecasts. Based on these background, the objective of this study is to assess the feasibility of CDR as a base data for travel demand forecasts. To perform this objective, CDR data collected for Daegu Metropolitan area for four days in April including weekdays and weekend days, 2017, were used. Based on these data, we analyzed the correlation between CDR and travel demand by travel survey data. The result showed that there exists the correlation and the correlation tends to be higher in discretionary trips such as non-home based business, non-home based shopping, and non-home based other trips.

• Journal of the military operations research society of Korea
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• v.11 no.1
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• pp.1-7
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• 1985

A computer-aided simulation model for inventory control was developed using Apple II Plus micro-computer. The model forecasts quarterly demands with Single Exponential Smoothing method and simulates Supply Demand Review and Inventory Level Settings for each items. The simulation is based on the assumption that the demand occurrences have their own probability distributions.

• Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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• v.19 no.40
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• pp.1-14
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• 1996

We develop a dynamic demand forecasting model compared to regression analysis model and AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average(ARIMA) model. The dynamic model can apply to the current dynamic data to forecasts through introducing state equation. A multiple regression model and ARIMA model using given data are designed via the model analysis. The forecasting fitness evaluation between the designed models and the dynamic model is compared with the criterion of sum of squared error.

• Journal of the Korean Operations Research and Management Science Society
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• v.25 no.3
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• pp.65-79
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• 2000

Based on the results of the internet service survey, the traffic demand forecasts of the AO/DI internet service and N-ISDN service have been performed for each channel(B-channel and D-channel). These traffic forecasts can be used as useful input data for investigating packet processing capacity of the TDX-10A switching system and suggesting guideline for capacity increasement.

• Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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• v.81 no.2
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• pp.124-138
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• 1992

This study was carried out to estimate long-term demand functions, and to project consumption of roundwood to the year 2030, using time series data for the period 1970-1990. Especially, the unique features of this study are in the estimation of demand functions for roundwood by species group and by end-use with help of dummy variables. It also, attempts to show how dummy variables can be utilized for improving the estimation result. The result of this study reveals that hardwood roundwood consumption is being substituted by softwood roundwood due to the rapid increase in the relative price of softwood, and this trend is expected to continue in the near future. The consumption of roundwood by mining industry is projected to fall as the coal :mining is expected to decline. The parametric estimates of timber demand function by species group and by end-use indicate that the demand for timber in Korea is more responsive to the performance of domestic economy as a whole, represented by GDP in this study, than to other variables such as own and substitute prices. The effects of population growth and substitute prices could not be determined.

• The Journal of the Institute of Internet, Broadcasting and Communication
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• v.19 no.5
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• pp.187-194
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• 2019

Traditional demand forecasting methods are difficult to meet the needs of companies due to rapid changes in the market and the diversification of individual consumer needs. In a diversified production environment, the right demand forecast is an important factor for smooth yield management. Many of the existing predictive models commonly used in industry today are limited in function by little. The proposed model is designed to overcome these limitations, taking into account the part where each model performs better individually. In this paper, variables are extracted through Gray Relational analysis suitable for dynamic process analysis, and statistically predicted data is generated that includes characteristics of historical demand data produced through ARIMA forecasts. In combination with the LSTM model, demand forecasts can then be calculated by reflecting the many factors that affect demand forecast through an architecture that is structured to avoid the long-term dependency problems that the neural network model has.

• The Journal of Bigdata
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• v.6 no.2
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• pp.85-98
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• 2021

The pandemic of COVID-19 further promoted the imbalance in the volume of imports and exports among countries using containers, which worsened the shortage of empty containers. Since it is important to secure as many empty containers as the appropriate demand for stable and efficient port operation, measures to predict demand for empty containers using various techniques have been studied so far. However, it was based on long-term forecasts on a monthly or annual basis rather than demand forecasts that could be used directly by ports and shipping companies. In this study, a daily and weekly prediction method using an actual artificial neural network is presented. In details, the demand forecasting model has been developed using multi-layer perceptron and multiple linear regression model. In order to overcome the limitation from the lack of data, it was manipulated considering the business process between the loaded container and empty container, which the fully-loaded container is converted to the empty container. From the result of numerical experiment, it has been developed the practically applicable forecasting model, even though it could not show the perfect accuracy.

• Proceedings of the KIPE Conference
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• 2005.07a
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• pp.149-151
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• 2005

Recently, power supply-demand instability due to the dramatic increase in power usage suchas air-conditioning load at summertime has brought forecasts of decrease in power supply capability. Therefore improving the load factor through systematic load management, in other words, Direct Load Control became necessary. Direct Load Control(DLC) system is kind of a load management program for stabilization of electric power supply-demand. It's purpose is limiting the demand of the demand side selected at peak load or other time periods. The paper presented a Design of Direct Load Controller for control the amount of power demand in demand side. The proposed Controller is cheaper and has ability of storing more power data than pre-existing device.