• Title/Summary/Keyword: Demand Estimation Method

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A Proposal to Control System and the Problems of the Problems of the Report about Supply and Demand for Medical Technicians and Management Policy ("의료기사인력수급에 관한 보고서"의 문제점과 관리제도의 개선방안)

  • Kim, Sang-Hyun;Lim, Yongmoo
    • Journal of Korean Ophthalmic Optics Society
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    • v.13 no.4
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    • pp.25-30
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    • 2008
  • Purpose: In this paper, we have analyzed the problems of the Oh's report which is used to the basic data for supply and demand of medical technicians and studied a proposal for improvement to control system and supply and demand of korean optometrists. Methods: We have analyzed errors of Oh's report including supply and demand for medical technicians and management policy, expecting number for future optician, inaccurate estimation by limited data (employment rate, retirement rate, mortality rate) and an incorrect method of measurement for future supply and demand. Results: Oh's report showed the 18% error for estimation of supply which exclude the irregular entrance students. The estimation of supply was calculated by graduation rate 62.6% (college and University of Technology are 78.9% and 85.98% respectively), employment rate 65.8% (the average employment between 2002 and 2007 is 73.96%) and retirement rate is 2.3% (the retirement of pharmacists is 1.3%) but it showed the significant differences to objective data. For estimate the suitable ratio of optometrists to the population, the ratio use of medical facilities by an age group was used, and suggested spectacle wearers 1,280 persons (populations 2,928 persons) per optometrist but the different from reference of Germany (4,706 persons), America (1,789 persons) and Korea (1,825 persons/an optometrist) are applied to estimation on supply. This report applied the low employment rate and argued that maintain the present situation, but claimed that utilize unemployment persons. The above result has induced double weighting effect on estimation of supply. Conclusions: To solve the related problems of supply and demand, we have to make a search for exact data and optimum application model, have to take an example of nation similar job category as Germany and the research result of the job satisfaction into consideration. After we get the integrated research result, we must carried out the policy with fairness and balance for the estimation of supply and demand. Therefore exact research is required prior to beginning policy establishment, government and related group have to make a clear long-term plan and permanent organization for medical technician to establish supply and demand of medical technician.

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A Research of the Reliability Analysis and Application Method Based on Non-parametric Statistics Using Field Data (야전 운용자료를 이용한 비 모수 통계 기반의 신뢰도 분석 기법 및 활용 방안 연구)

  • Na, Il-Yong
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Military Science and Technology
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    • v.13 no.4
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    • pp.594-600
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    • 2010
  • In this paper, we introduced non-parametric statisticals method that could analyse the field data and proposed application ways such as repair-part demand forcasting, MTBF estimation and trend analysis, identity comparison with two populations using the analytical results. In addition, we applied that to real field data which has been collected for about ten years from K series tracked vehicle. After that, we compared the results with those using traditional parametric statistical method, and verified the usability of them.

Harmonics Assessment for an Electric Railroad Feeding System using Moments Matching Method (모멘트 정합 방법(Moment Matching Method)을 이용한 전기철도 급전시스템의 고조파 평가)

  • Lee, Jun-Kyong;Lee, Seung-Hyuk;Kim, Jin-O
    • The Transactions of The Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers
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    • v.56 no.1
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    • pp.1-7
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    • 2007
  • Generally, an electric railroad feeding system has many problems due to the different characteristics in contrast with a load of general three-phase AC electric power system. One of them is harmonics problem caused by the switching device existing in the feeding system, and moreover, the time-varying dynamic loads of rail way is inherently another cause to increase this harmonics problem. In Korea power systems, the electric railroad feeding system is directly supplied from the substation of KEPCO. Therefore, if voltages fluctuation or unbalanced voltages are created by the voltage and current distortion or voltage drop during operation, it affects directly the source of supply. The trainloads of electric railway system have non-periodic but iterative harmonic characteristics as operating condition, because the electric characteristic of the electric railroad feeding system is changed by physical conditions of the each trainload. According to the traditional study, the estimation of harmonics has been performed by deterministic way using the steady state data at the specific time. This method is easy to analyze harmonics, but it has limits in some cases which needs an assessment of dynamic load and reliability. Therefore, this paper proposes the probabilistic estimation method, moments matching method(MW) in order to overcome the drawback of deterministic method. In this paper, distributions for each harmonics are convolved to obtain the moments and cumulants of TDD(Total Demand Distortion), and this can be generalized for any number of trains. For the case study, the electric railway system of LAT(Intra Airport Transit) in Incheon International Airport is modeled using PSCAD/EMTDC dynamic simulator. The raw data of harmonics for the moments matching method is acquired from simulation of the LAT model.

Estimation of Users대 Benefit Value for Woobang Tower Land in Taegu Using Travel Cost Method (여행비용접근법을 통한 대구 우방타워랜드의 편익가치 측정)

  • 김수봉;심애경;권기찬
    • Journal of Environmental Science International
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    • v.10 no.3
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    • pp.173-178
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    • 2001
  • The aim of this paper is to evaluate users benefit values of theme park using Travel Cost Method with special reference to Woobang Tower Land in Taegu for the estimation of economic values. This research is mainly based on questionnaire survey of 100 users of the theme park. Socio-economic factors such as income, year of education, annual income, age and money(travel cost) are analysed from 5 residential areas of the respondents. Multiple regression analysis was used for the evaluation of annual number of park visitings based on the analysis. The regression model shows NV = $\alpha$+$\beta_1$TC+$\beta_2$INC+$\beta_3$EDU+$\beta_4$AGE (NV : Annual Number of Visitings, TC : Travel Cost, INC : Annual Income, EDU : Years of Education, AGE : Age). Regarding to visitors demand curve based on the equation showed that annual economic values of Woobang Tower Land was estimated as 50billion Korean Won.

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Development of a bridge-specific fragility methodology to improve the seismic resilience of bridges

  • Dukes, Jazalyn;Mangalathu, Sujith;Padgett, Jamie E.;DesRoches, Reginald
    • Earthquakes and Structures
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    • v.15 no.3
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    • pp.253-261
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    • 2018
  • This article details a bridge-specific fragility method developed to enhance the seismic design and resilience of bridges. Current seismic design processes provide guidance for the design of a bridge that will not collapse during a design hazard event. However, they do not provide performance information of the bridge at different hazard levels or due to design changes. Therefore, there is a need for a supplement to this design process that will provide statistical information on the performance of a bridge, beyond traditional emphases on collapse prevention. This article proposes a bridge-specific parameterized fragility method to enable efficient estimation of various levels of damage probability for alternative bridge design parameters. A multi-parameter demand model is developed to incorporate bridge design details directly in the fragility estimation. Monte Carlo simulation and Logistic regression are used to determine the fragility of the bridge or bridge component. The resulting parameterized fragility model offers a basis for a bridge-specific design tool to explore the influence of design parameter variation on the expected performance of a bridge. When used as part of the design process, these tools can help to transform a prescriptive approach into a more performance-based approach, efficiently providing probabilistic performance information about a new bridge design. An example of the method and resulting fragility estimation is presented.

Fast Game Encoder Based on Scene Descriptor for Gaming-on-Demand Service (주문형 게임 서비스를 위한 장면 기술자 기반 고속 게임 부호화기)

  • Jeon, Chan-Woong;Jo, Hyun-Ho;Sim, Dong-Gyu
    • Journal of Korea Multimedia Society
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    • v.14 no.7
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    • pp.849-857
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    • 2011
  • Gaming on demand(GOD) makes people enjoy games by encoding and transmitting game screen at a server side, and decoding the video at a client side. In this paper, we propose a fast game video encoder for multiple users over network with low-powered devices. In the proposed system, the computational complexity of game encoders is reduced by using scene descriptors, which consists of an object motion vector, global motion, and scene change. With additional information from game engines, the proposed encoder does not need to perform various complexity processes such as motion estimation and ratedistortion optimization. The motion estimation and rate-distortion optimization skipped by scene descriptors. We found that the proposed method improved 192 % in terms of FPS, compared with x264 software. With partial assembly code, we also improved coding speed by 86 % in terms of FPS. We found that the proposed fast encoder could encode over 60 FPS for real-time GOD applications.

Estimation of earthquake induced story hysteretic energy of multi-Story buildings

  • Wang, Feng;Zhang, Ning;Huang, Zhiyu
    • Earthquakes and Structures
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    • v.11 no.1
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    • pp.165-178
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    • 2016
  • The goal of energy-based seismic design is to obtain a structural design with a higher energy dissipation capacity than the energy dissipation demands incurred under earthquake motions. Accurate estimation of the story hysteretic energy demand of a multi-story structure is the key to meeting this goal. Based on the assumption of a mode-equivalent single-degree-of-freedom system, the energy equilibrium relationship of a multi-story structure under seismic action is transformed into that of a multi-mode analysis of several single degree-of-freedom systems. A simplified equation for the estimation of the story seismic hysteretic energy demand was then derived according to the story shear force and deformation of multi-story buildings, and the deformation and energy relationships between the mode-equivalent single-degree-of-freedom system and the original structure. Sites were categorized into three types based on soil hardness, namely, hard soil, intermediate hard (soft) soil, and soft soil. For each site type, a 5-story and 10-story reinforced concrete frame structure were designed and employed as calculation examples. Fifty-six earthquake acceleration records were used as horizontal excitations to validate the accuracy of the proposed method. The results verify the following. (1) The distribution of seismic hysteretic energy along the stories demonstrate a degree of regularity. (2) For the low rise buildings, use of only the first mode shape provides reasonably accurate results, whereas, for the medium or high rise buildings, several mode shapes should be included and superposed to achieve high precision. (3) The estimated hysteretic energy distribution of bottom stories tends to be underestimated, which should be modified in actual applications.

Application of Risk Management to Forecasting Transportation Demand by Delphi Technique (Delphi기법을 통한 교통수요예측 Risk Management 적용 방안)

  • Chung, Sung-Bong
    • Journal of the Korea Safety Management & Science
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    • v.13 no.2
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    • pp.267-273
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    • 2011
  • Since 'The Act on Private Investment of The Infrastructure' was established in 1994, private investment as well as government's investment in transport infrastructure has been active. However investment in transport infrastructure has more risks than others' due to uncertainty both in traffic volume and in construction cost. In the current appraisal procedure of deciding transportation infrastructure investment, instead of risk management, the sensitivity analysis considering only the changes of benefit, cost and social discount rate which are main factor affecting economic feasibility is carried out. Therefore the uncertainty of various factors affecting demand, cost and benefit are not considered in feasibility study. In this study the problems in current investment appraisal system were reviewed. Using Delphi technique the major factors which have high uncertainty in feasibility study were surveyed and then improvement plan was suggested in the respective of classic 4 step demand forecasting method. The range estimation technique was also mentioned to deal with the uncertainty of the future.

Water demand forecasting at the DMA level considering sociodemographic and waterworks characteristics (사회인구통계 및 상수도시설 특성을 고려한 소블록 단위 물 수요예측 연구)

  • Saemmul Jin;Dooyong Choi;Kyoungpil Kim;Jayong Koo
    • Journal of Korean Society of Water and Wastewater
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    • v.37 no.6
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    • pp.363-373
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    • 2023
  • Numerous studies have established a correlation between sociodemographic characteristics and water usage, identifying population as a primary independent variable in mid- to long-term demand forecasting. Recent dramatic sociodemographic changes, including urban concentration-rural depopulation, low birth rates-aging population, and the rise in single-person households, are expected to impact water demand and supply patterns. This underscores the necessity for operational and managerial changes in existing water supply systems. While sociodemographic characteristics are regularly surveyed, the conducted surveys use aggregate units that do not align with the actual system. Consequently, many water demand forecasts have been conducted at the administrative district level without adequately considering the water supply system. This study presents an upward water demand forecasting model that accurately reflects real water facilities and consumers. The model comprises three key steps. Firstly, Statistics Korea's SGIS (Statistical Geological Information System) data was reorganized at the DMA level. Secondly, DMAs were classified using the SOM (Self-Organizing Map) algorithm to consider differences in water facilities and consumer characteristics. Lastly, water demand forecasting employed the PCR (Principal Component Regression) method to address multicollinearity and overfitting issues. The performance evaluation of this model was conducted for DMAs classified as rural areas due to the insufficient number of DMAs. The estimation results indicate that the correlation coefficients exceeded 0.9, and the MAPE remained within approximately 10% for the test dataset. This method is expected to be useful for reorganization plans, such as the expansion and contraction of existing facilities.

Real-Time Haptic Rendering for Multi-contact Interaction with Virtual Environment (가상현실을 위한 다중 접촉 실시간 햅틱 랜더링)

  • Lee, Kyung-No;Lee, Doo-Yong
    • Journal of Institute of Control, Robotics and Systems
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    • v.14 no.7
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    • pp.663-671
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    • 2008
  • This paper presents a real-time haptic rendering method for multi-contact interaction with virtual environments. Haptic systems often employ physics-based deformation models such as finite-element models and mass-spring models which demand heavy computational overhead. The haptic system can be designed to have two sampling times, T and JT, for the haptic loop and the graphic loop, respectively. A multi-rate output-estimation with an exponential forgetting factor is proposed to implement real-time haptic rendering for the haptic systems with two sampling rates. The computational burden of the output-estimation increases rapidly as the number of contact points increases. To reduce the computation of the estimation, the multi-rate output-estimation with reduced parameters is developed in this paper. Performance of the new output-estimation with reduced parameters is compared with the original output-estimation with full parameters and an exponential forgetting factor. Estimated outputs are computed from the estimated input-output model at a high rate, and trace the analytical outputs computed from the deformation model. The performance is demonstrated by simulation with a linear tensor-mass model.