• Korean Journal of Agricultural Science
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• v.16 no.1
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• pp.71-83
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• 1989

The purpose of this research are to forecast the demand and supply of milk in Korea, and to obtain information for attitudes affecting milk consumption, which is necessary to make a plan for increasing milk consumption in Korea. The estimation of the milk demand and production was made by the multiplicative decomposition method and the statistical function. Data on consumer were collected from 737 students who were attending primary school, middle school and university in Daejeon during the period of July 11 to July 21, 1988. The results obtained are as follows; 1. The prediction results showed that the production for milk will over supply 21,900 tons in 1,990, 70,800 tons in 1,995 by the multiplicative decomposition method and 45,400 tons in 1990, -51,500 tons in 1995 by the statistical function. 2. It was found that almost all the students awared milk as essential food-stuff of common food stuff for the Koreans. 3. Quite a few students were apt to believe that milk processors added water into fluid milk. 4. Most students showed obtaining information about the nutritional value of milk by school education and advertising of TV, Radio, and Printed media. 5. However, it was found that the advertising by TV, Radio, and Printed media did hardly give to consumers influences on the choice of a particular milk brand. Accordingly, the conclusions are as follows; 1. Need to provide consumers with well planned education programs on the nutritional value of milk. 2. Heavy brand advertising for fluid milk may mislead the understanding of consumer, since city milk is not much differentiated in Korea. Therefore the milk processors should put more efforts in generic milk promotion by reducing brand advertizement. 3. The milk processors should provide major portion of financing for generic milk promotion program.

• Journal of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea
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• v.8 no.3
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• pp.33-42
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• 2004

While transforming the inelastic system into the equivalent elastic one gives an advantage of simpler analysis, the actual inelastic behavior of the system is hardly modeled in the capacity spectrum method (CSM). Therefore, the accuracy of CSM depends on the precise estimation of equivalent period and damping ratio as well as the modification of the elastic response spectrum and the corresponding demand spectrum. In this paper, the effect of demand spectrums on the accuracy of CSM is evaluated. First, the response reduction factors provided in ATC-40 and Euro Code are evaluated. Numerical analysis results indicated that the acceleration responses obtained using the factor of Euro Code are closer to the actual response than those obtained using the factors of ATC-40. Next, the accuracy of CSM is evaluated constructing the demand spectrum using the absolute acceleration responses and pseudo acceleration responses. The results obtained using the absolute acceleration responses were found to be generally larger than those obtained using the pseudo ones. Since CSM often underestimates the response, the use of absolute acceleration response gives the response relatively closer to the exact ones. However, the difference becomes negligible as the hardening ratio and the yield strength ratio become larger.

• Review of Culture and Economy
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• v.19 no.2
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• pp.29-50
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• 2016

This paper is to apply an individual travel cost method(TCM) to estimate demand functions for cultural services enjoyed by visiting 3 branches of the National Museum of Modern and Contemporary Art located in the Seoul Metropolitan area. This paper extends the standard TCM by incorporating opportunity costs of leisure time and two different data generating process - 398 respondents from an on-site survey and 600 respondents from a general household survey. Negative binomial models reflecting the non-negative integer nature of visiting frequency with over-dispersed variance were best fitted for demand functions, in which residents of Seoul metropolitan area surveyed from on the site exhibited higher visitation demand for the national art museum. Price elasticity and income elasticity differed by respondents' residency. Price elasticity of long distance visitors (-0.21) was more inelastic from those of Seoul residents (-0.34 ~ -0.5). Moreover, regional residents outside of Seoul area seemed to consider that services from the national art museum is a normal good with income elasticity of 0.5, whereas the Seoul residents seemed to perceive it to be an inferior good with income elasticity of -0.05.

• Journal of the Korean Institute of Gas
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• v.24 no.6
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• pp.34-46
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• 2020

In order to supply stable natural gas in the future, it is necessary to forecast the demand in advance and secure the quantity of supply. In this paper, we propose a method of estimating the demand function of industrial natural gas, which is the core of the increase of domestic natural gas demand in the future. The cross-sectional data of 304 domestic industries were used to estimate the demand function of the industrial natural gas, and the effect of industry specific characteristics such as capital investment, manufacturing cost. Finally, the least absolute deviation estimation method which is robust to outliers and does not assume the homogeneity of the error term and the normality, And the results were derived. In addition, the economic value of industrial city gas was estimated using the price elasticity of industrial city gas. Therefore, it can be seen that the continuous expansion and supply of city gas to the industrial sector is beneficial at the national level, and the government needs to promote expansion through the industrial city gas support policy.

• IE interfaces
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• v.25 no.4
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• pp.422-430
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• 2012

In this article, we introduced the estimation method by 'Safety Integrity Level'(SIL) for the criterion of safety assurance and performed a case study on a flame scanner. SIL requires probabilistic evaluation of each set of equipment used to reduce risk in a safety related system. FMEDA(Failure Modes, Effects and Diagnostic Analysis) method is widely used to evaluate the safety levels and provides information on the failure rates and failure mode distributions necessary to calculate a diagnostic coverage factor for a part or a component. Basically, two parameters resulting from FMEDA are used for SIL classification of the device : SFF(Safe Failure Fraction) and PFD(Probability of Failure on Demand). In this case study, it is concluded that the flame scanner is designed to fulfill the condition of SIL 3 in the aspect of SFF and PFD.

• Proceedings of the KSRS Conference
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• v.2
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• pp.909-912
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• 2006

In this paper a method for remotely-sensed assessment of eutrophication was experimented. The water samples were collected for analysis of COD (chemical oxygen demand) and nutrients concentration, and the remote sensing reflectance data at the sampling points were synchronously measured using above-water method in two cruises, which were conducted in the Pearl River Estuary in January 2003 and January 2004 respectively. Based on the in-situ data the local algorithms for estimation of concentration of nutrients (P and N) and COD were developed by Partial Least Squares (PLS) regression. The algorithms were then applied to atmospheric-corrected SeaWiFS data and the COD and nutrients concentration in Pearl River Estuary were estimated. And then the assessment of eutrophication was carried out by comparison of the estimated nutrients and COD value with the water quality standard. The results show that the whole estuary is seriously in eutrophication.

• Proceedings of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea Conference
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• 2002.09a
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• pp.266-273
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• 2002

Pushover analysis is frequently used for evaluation of seismic performance and determination of seismic demand of a building structure in the current structural engineering practice field. However, pushover analysis has a advantage for estimation of seismic demands, which cannot account for the contributions of higher modes to response or for a redistribution of inertia forces because of structural yielding and the associated changes in the vibration properties of the structures. Recently, Chopra and Coel(2001) derived uncoupled inelastic dynamic equation of motion with several assumptions in the pushover analysis. By using this approach, pushover analysis for each mode is carried out and modal pushover analysis method, which can consider higher mode effects of the building, was suggested. The principle objective of this study is to introduced the modal pushover analysis by Chopra et al.(2001) and investigated the applicability and validity of this method for the steel moment frames subjected to various earthquake ground motions.

• Wind and Structures
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• v.31 no.4
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• pp.311-319
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• 2020

India is a developing nation and heavily spends on the development of wind power plants to meet the national energy demand. The objective of this paper is to investigate wind power potential of Ennore site using wind data collected over a period of two years by three parameter Weibull distribution. The Weibull parameters are estimated using maximum likelihood, least square method and moment method and the accuracy is determined using R² and root mean square error values. The site specific capacity factor is calculated by the mathematical model developed by three parameter Weibull distribution at different hub heights above the ground level. At last, the wind energy economic analysis is carried out using capacity factor at 30 m, 40 m and 50 m height for different wind turbine models. The analysis showed that the site has potential to install utility wind turbines to generate energy at the lowest cost per kilowatt-hour at height of 50 m. This research provides information of wind characteristics of potential sites and helps in selecting suitable wind turbine.

• Journal of the Korean Solar Energy Society
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• v.39 no.4
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• pp.79-91
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• 2019

The capacity credit (CC) is a key metric for mid- to long-term power system capacity planning. The purpose of this study is to estimate the CCs of domestic wind turbines. Based on hourly capacity factor (CF) data during the seven years from 2011 to 2017, the new so-called probabilistic CF scheme is introduced to effectively reflect the variability of CFs on CC estimation. The CCs are then estimated through the CF-based method and the ELCC (Effective Load Carrying Capability) method reflecting the probabilistic CF scheme, and the results are compared. The results show that the CC value 0.019 for domestic wind turbines proposed in the $8^{th}$ Basic Plan for Electricity Supply and Demand corresponds to the CC with a confidence level slightly lower than 95%.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.26 no.3
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• pp.199-209
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• 2008

This paper is described the concepts and limitations for the traditional directional design hour volume estimation. The main objective of this paper is to establish an estimation method of probabilistic directional design hour volume in order to improve the limitation for the traditional approach method. To express the traffic congestion of specific road segment, this paper proposed the link travel time as the probability that the road capacity can accommodate a certain traffic demand at desired service level. Also, the link travel time threshold was derived from chance-constrained stochastic model. Such successive probabilistic process could determine optimal ranked design hour volume and directional design hour volume. Therefore, the probabilistic directional design hour volume can consider the traffic congestion and economic aspect in road planning and design stage. It is hoped that this study will provide a better understanding of various issues involved in the short term prediction of directional design hourly volume on different types of roads.