• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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• v.11 no.9
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• pp.3304-3310
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• 2010

This study solves the decision making problems for TFT-LCD manufacturing supply chain with demand and price uncertainties by establishing robust production and distribution strategies. In order to control the decisions regarding production graded by quality, inventory level and distribution, this study develop scenario model based stochastic mixed integer linear programs (SMILPs) that consider demand and price uncertainties as well as realistic constraints such as capacities etc. The performance of the solution obtained from the SMILPs using robust algorithms will be evaluated through various scenarios.

• Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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• v.40 no.4
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• pp.29-37
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• 2017

This papers focuses on remanufacturing processes in a closed loop supply chain. The remanufacturing processes is considered as one of the effective strategies for enterprises' sustainability. For this reason, a lot of companies have attempted to apply remanufacturing related methods to their manufacturing processes. While many research studies focused on the return rate for remanufacturing parts as a control parameter, the relationship with demand certainties has been studied less comparatively. This paper considers a closed loop supply chain environment with remanufacturing processes, where highly fluctuating demands are embedded. While other research studies capture uncertainties using probability theories, highly fluctuating demands are modeled using a fuzzy logic based ambiguity based modeling framework. The previous studies on the remanufacturing have been limited in solving the actual supply chain management situation and issues by analyzing the various situations and variables constituting the supply chain model in a linear relationship. In order to overcome these limitations, this papers considers that the relationship between price and demand is nonlinear. In order to interpret the relationship between demand and price, a new price elasticity of demand is modeled using a fuzzy based nonlinear function and analyzed. This papers contributes to setup and to provide an effective price strategy reflecting highly demand uncertainties in the closed loop supply chain management with remanufacturing processes. Also, this papers present various procedures and analytical methods for constructing accurate parameter and membership functions that deal with extended uncertainty through fuzzy logic system based modeling rather than existing probability distribution based uncertainty modeling.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• v.52 no.6
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• pp.1334-1339
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• 2020

This paper presents an empirical and comprehensive forecasting analysis of the uranium price. Prices are generally difficult to forecast, and the uranium price is not an exception because it is affected by many external factors, apart from imbalances between demand and supply. Therefore, a systematic analysis of multiple forecasting methods and combinations of them along repeated forecast origins is a way of discerning which method is most suitable. Results suggest that i) some sophisticated methods do not improve upon the Naïve's (horizontal) forecast and ii) Unobserved Components methods are the most powerful, although the gain in accuracy is not big. These two facts together imply that uranium prices are undoubtedly subject to many uncertainties.

• Korean System Dynamics Review
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• v.13 no.1
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• pp.81-112
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• 2012

This study investigate the impact of supply chain contracts on supply chain performance. This study employed Price adjustment contract(PAC) and Quantity adjustment contract(QAC) as two main types of a vertical coordination mechanism. We simulate different types of coordination mechanisms with various degrees of demand uncertainties and several capacity tightness scenarios. This study shows that PAC and QAC significantly enhance the supply chain profits and fill rates suggesting that supply chain performance can be improved by implementing a proper coordination mechanism depends on the level of a capacity tightness and demand uncertainty.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.38 no.4
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• pp.87-106
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• 2022

Uncertainties in the energy market are increasing due to technology developments (shale revolution), trade wars, COVID-19, and the Russia-Ukraine war. Especially, since 2020, the risk of international trade in the energy market has increased significantly due to changes in the supply chain of transportation and due to prolonged demand reduction because of COVID-19 and the Russian-Ukraine war. Considering these points, this study analyzed connectedness between energy price, tanker index, and uncertainty to understand the connectedness between international trade in the energy market. Main results are summarized as follows. First, as a result of analyzing stable period and unstable period of the energy price model using the MS-VAR model, it was confirmed that both the crude oil market model and the natural gas market model had a higher probability of maintaining stable period than unstable period, increasing volatility by specific events. Second, looking at the results of the analysis of the connectedness between stable period and unstable period of the energy market, it was confirmed that in the case of total connectedness, connectedness between variables was increased in the unstable period compared to the stable period. In the case of the energy market stable period, considering the degree of connectedness, it was confirmed that the effect of the tanker freight index, which represents the demand-side factor, was significant. Third, unstable period of the natural gas market model increases rapidly compared to the crude oil market model, indicating that the volatility spillover effect of the natural gas market is greater when uncertainties affecting energy prices increase compared to the crude oil market.

• Journal of Korean Institute of Industrial Engineers
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• v.41 no.3
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• pp.259-266
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• 2015

Among many energy resources, natural gas has recently received a remarkable amount of attention, particularly from the electrical generation industry. This is in part due to increasing shale gas production, providing an environment-friendly fossil fuel, and high risk of nuclear power. Because South Korea, the world's second largest LNG importing nation after Japan, has no international natural gas pipelines and relies on imports in the form of LNG, the natural gas has been traditionally procured by long term LNG contracts at relatively high price. Thus, there is a need of developing an Asian LNG trading hub, where LNG can be traded at more competitive spot prices. In a natural gas spot market, the amount of natural gas to be bought should be carefully determined considering a limited storage capacity and future pricing dynamics. In this work, the problem to find the optimal amount of natural gas in a spot market is formulated as a Markov decision process (MDP) in risk neutral environment and the optimal base stock policy which depends on a stage and price is established. Taking into account price and demand uncertainties, the basestock target levels are simply approximated from dynamic programming. The simulation results show that the basestock policy can be one of effective ways for procurement of LNG in a spot market.

• Proceedings of the KAIS Fall Conference
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• 2010.05b
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• pp.923-927
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• 2010

본 연구는 가격 및 수요 불확실성하의 강건한 (robust) 생산 및 수송 전략을 수립함으로써 수요 및 가격 불확실성이 존재하는 TFT-LCD 제조업 공급사슬망의 의사결정 문제를 해결하고자 한다. 품질로 구분되는 제품들의 생산, 재고 및 물류에 관한 의사결정을 조정하기 위해, 본 연구에서는 생산용량 제약, 해상/항공 수송 리드타임 및 용량 제약 등의 현실적인 제약조건들 이외에 시나리오 모델을 이용하여 수요 및 가격 불확실성을 함께 반영하는 확률적 혼합정수선형계획법모형들을 개발한다. 또한 이들 모형들의 효율적 솔루션을 위해 제안한 휴리스틱 알고리즘의 성능을 평가하도록 한다.

• Journal of the Semiconductor & Display Technology
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• v.10 no.4
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• pp.71-77
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• 2011

This paper presents a production planning methodology for semiconductor manufacturing supply chain network with volatilities caused by uncertainties such as unstable demand and price. In order to take volatilities into account, we develop two approaches; 1) stochastic model with consideration of various cases and 2) deterministic model considering replanning cost, and propose efficient solution methods. Computational experiments show that the performance of the proposed method is superior to that of deterministic approach using various scenarios.

• Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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• 1993.07a
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• pp.144-147
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• 1993

The long-term electricity resource planning of electric utility has undergone significant change during the past decade. The current resource planning can be considered as multi-objective decision making procedure under the various uncertainties such as demand growth, construction cost, fuel price, environmental regulation, plant site, financial adequacy, new technology advent and so on. This paper presents a standardized electricity resource planning scheme using the strategic planning concept. EGEAS computer model was fully applied to indentify feasible alternative plans and simulate various attribute values corresponding each alternative plan and future. As a case study, a hypothetical long-ten capacity expansion planning problem is analyzed.

• Industrial Engineering and Management Systems
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• v.11 no.1
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• pp.11-17
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• 2012

Along with the recent trend toward increasing variety and shorter life of products in the market, evaluation of risk for economic investment alternatives is of practical importance in manufacturing companies. This paper assumes that each alternative is composed of demand volume and unit sales price as income factors, and unit variable cost and fixed cost as expense factors. The paper assumes that these four factors move worse from the originally expected values, toward the direction of decreasing profit. Values of these four factors are also assumed to fluctuate from year to year over the entire multi-period. By applying the analysis of the breakeven points to each of the four factors, safer area against these changes is represented on the two dimensional domain called normalized total-cost unit-cost domain. A practical numerical example is analyzed to verify the validity of the proposed method.