• Title/Summary/Keyword: Degree of risk analysis

Search Result 540, Processing Time 0.03 seconds

Optimum Risk-Adjusted Islamic Stock Portfolio Using the Quadratic Programming Model: An Empirical Study in Indonesia

  • MUSSAFI, Noor Saif Muhammad;ISMAIL, Zuhaimy
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
    • /
    • v.8 no.5
    • /
    • pp.839-850
    • /
    • 2021
  • Risk-adjusted return is believed to be one of the optimal parameters to determine an optimum portfolio. A risk-adjusted return is a calculation of the profit or potential profit from an investment that takes into account the degree of risk that must be accepted to achieve it. This paper presents a new procedure in portfolio selection and utilizes these results to optimize the risk level of risk-adjusted Islamic stock portfolios. It deals with the weekly close price of active issuers listed on Jakarta Islamic Index Indonesia for a certain time interval. Overall, this paper highlights portfolio selection, which includes determining the number of stocks, grouping the issuers via technical analysis, and selecting the best risk-adjusted return of portfolios. The nominated portfolio is modeled using Quadratic Programming (QP). The result of this study shows that the portfolio built using the lowest Value at Risk (VaR) outperforms the market proxy on a risk-adjusted basis of M-squared and was chosen as the best portfolio that can be optimized using QP with a minimum risk of 2.86%. The portfolio with the lowest beta, on the other hand, will produce a minimum risk that is nearly 60% lower than the optimal risk-adjusted return portfolio. The results of QP are well verified by a heuristic optimizer of fmincon.

Polymorphisms of XRCC1 and XRCC2 DNA Repair Genes and Interaction with Environmental Factors Influence the Risk of Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma in Northeast India

  • Singh, Seram Anil;Ghosh, Sankar Kumar
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
    • /
    • v.17 no.6
    • /
    • pp.2811-2819
    • /
    • 2016
  • Multiple genetic and environmental factors have been reported to play key role in the development of nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC). Here, we investigated interactions of XRCC1 Arg399Gln and XRCC2 Arg188His polymorphisms and environmental factors in modulating susceptibility to NPC in Northeast India. One-hundred NPC patients, 90 first-degree relatives of patients and 120 controls were enrolled in the study. XRCC1 Arg399Gln and XRCC2 Arg188His polymorphisms were determined using PCR-RFLP, and the results were confirmed by DNA sequencing. Logistic regression (LR) and multifactor dimensionality reduction (MDR) approaches were applied for statistical analysis. The XRCC1 Gln/Gln genotype showed increased risk (OR=2.76; P<0.024) of NPC. However, individuals with both XRCC1 and XRCC2 polymorphic variants had 3.2 fold elevated risk (P<0.041). An enhanced risk of NPC was also observed in smoked meat (OR=4.07; P=0.004) and fermented fish consumers (OR=4.34, P=0.001), and tobacco-betel quid chewers (OR=7.00; P=0.0001) carrying XRCC1 polymorphic variants. However, smokers carrying defective XRCC1 gene showed the highest risk (OR = 7.47; P<0.0001). On MDR analysis, the best model for NPC risk was the five-factor model combination of XRCC1 variant genotype, fermented fish, smoked meat, smoking and chewing (CVC=10/10; TBA=0.636; P<0.0001); whereas in interaction entropy graphs, smoked meat and tobacco chewing showed synergistic interactions with XRCC1. These findings suggest that interaction of genetic and environmental factors might increase susceptibility to NPC in Northeast Indian populations.

A Study on the Risk Analysis of Building Fire Using Statistical Data of Casuals (사상자 통계자료를 활용한 건축물 화재 위험성 분석에 관한 연구)

  • Jin, Seung-hyeon;Kim, Hye-Won;Koo, In-Hyuk;Kwon, Young-Jin
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Building Construction Conference
    • /
    • 2021.11a
    • /
    • pp.48-49
    • /
    • 2021
  • The purpose of evaluating the fire risk of a building is to predict damage or loss of life and property in unspecified circumstances and to minimize expected damage. The fire risk assessment for buildings in Korea analyzes fire risk according to performance-oriented design under the Enforcement Decree of the Fire Facilities Act and the Fire Causing Index under the Enforcement Decree of the Multi-Use Business Act. Fire risk analysis is mainly conducted by using fire statistics or analyzing the results of safety inspections of buildings. In the case of fire statistics, it is necessary to analyze the fire risk in consideration of the degree of fire damage in each number of fires, as all fires received by the fire department are collected. In addition, it is necessary to devise fire safety measures for buildings by predicting the number of casualties that may occur due to fires in each building. Accordingly, this study aims to analyze the characteristics of casualties by building use using the number of fires judged to have grown.

  • PDF

An Improved Multilevel Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation to Analyse on Engineering Project Risk

  • LI, Xin;LI, Mufeng;HAN, Xia
    • The Journal of Economics, Marketing and Management
    • /
    • v.10 no.5
    • /
    • pp.1-6
    • /
    • 2022
  • Purpose: To overcome the question that depends too much on expert's subjective judgment in traditional risk identification, this paper structure the multilevel generalized fuzzy comprehensive evaluation mathematics model of the risk identification of project, to research the risk identification of the project. Research design, data and methodology: This paper constructs the multilevel generalized fuzzy comprehensive evaluation mathematics model. Through iterative algorithm of AHP analysis, make sure the important degree of the sub project in risk analysis, then combine expert's subjective judgment with objective quantitative analysis, and distinguish the risk through identification models. Meanwhile, the concrete method of multilevel generalized fuzzy comprehensive evaluation is probed. Using the index weights to analyse project risks is discussed in detail. Results: The improved fuzzy comprehensive evaluation algorithm is proposed in the paper, at first the method of fuzzy sets core is used to optimize the fuzzy relation matrix. It improves the capability of the algorithm. Then, the method of entropy weight is used to establish weight vectors. This makes the computation process fair and open. And thereby, the uncertainty of the evaluation result brought by the subjectivity can be avoided effectively and the evaluation result becomes more objective and more reasonable. Conclusions: In this paper, we use an improved fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method to evaluate a railroad engineering project risk. It can give a more reliable result for a reference of decision making.

Quantitative Hazard Analysis of Information Systems Using Probabilistic Risk Analysis Method

  • Lee, Young-Jai;Kim, Tae-Ho
    • Journal of Information Technology Applications and Management
    • /
    • v.16 no.3
    • /
    • pp.59-71
    • /
    • 2009
  • Hazard analysis identifies probability to hazard occurrence and its potential impact on business processes operated in organizations. This paper illustrates a quantitative approach of hazard analysis of information systems by measuring the degree of hazard to information systems using probabilistic risk analysis and activity based costing technique. Specifically the research model projects probability of occurrence by PRA and economic loss by ABC under each identified hazard. To verify the model, each computerized subsystem which is called a business process and hazards occurred on information systems are gathered through one private organization. The loss impact of a hazard occurrence is produced by multiplying probability by the economic loss.

  • PDF

Identification of Information Characteristics According to Searching Value Types of Internet Consumer Information -Focused on the Classification of Internet Consumer Information- (인터넷소비자정보 탐색가치유형에 따른 정보특성인지 -인터넷소비자정보분류를 중심으로-)

  • 황은애;이승신
    • Journal of the Korean Home Economics Association
    • /
    • v.40 no.4
    • /
    • pp.105-124
    • /
    • 2002
  • The purpose of this study was to analyze searching value types of Internet consumer information and to identify difference of information characteristics by searching value types. The online survey was conducted by 262 netizens. We used SPSS10.0 package and statistical analysis as follows : factor analysis, cluster analysis, one-way ANOVA, and Duncan's multiple range test. The results were summarized as follows: 1) searching value types of Internet consumer information were classified into 3 types - high benefit/high risk type, middle benefit/middle risk type, high benefit/low risk type. 2)In the degree of significance for information characteristics, consumer recognized accuracy as the most important then comes variability, utility, up-to-dateness, and reliability in that order. 3) high benefit/high risk type among searching value types was evaluated the most affirmative types for Internet consumer information.

A Study on the Environment Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (환경모드분석을 통한 영향분석기법의 연구)

  • Lee, Jong-Boem;Cho, Jai-Rip
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society for Quality Management Conference
    • /
    • 2009.10a
    • /
    • pp.227-229
    • /
    • 2009
  • Recent discussions in the active growth strategy based on getting a green environment, changes in the management of companies involved in environmental management is the analysis of various risk factors and the green growth at the same time the company's growth strategy is required. Thus, the corporate position on the green growth strategy based on risk management to analyze and respond to face reality, and respond to the scene of the applied methodology is required. In this study, contact the section of Environment to assess potential business risks that the EMEA Environment Mode Effects Analysis methodology through research and development company's in, contact the section of Environment to effectively analyze risk management by addressing the degree of risk assessment as a future-oriented and objective can manage is to provide technical management model.

  • PDF

Reliability and Risk Assessment of Reclaimed Soil (매립지반의 액상화 신뢰성 및 위험도 평가)

  • Yi Jin-Hak;Kwon O-Soon;Park Woo-Sun
    • Proceedings of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute Conference
    • /
    • 2006.04a
    • /
    • pp.473-480
    • /
    • 2006
  • Liquefaction of soil foundation is one of the major seismic damage types of infrastructures. In this paper, deterministic and probabilistic approaches for the evaluation of liquefaction potential are briefly summarized and the risk assessment method is newly proposed using seismic fragility and seismic hazard curves. Currently the deterministic approach is widely used to evaluate the liquefaction potential in Korea. However, the there are a certain degree of uncertainties in the soil properties such as elastic modulus and resistant capacity, therefore the probabilistic approach is more promising. Two types of probabilistic approach are introduced including (1) failure probability for a given design earthquake and (2) the seismic risk of liquefaction of soil for a given service life. The results from different methods show a similar trend, and the liquefaction potential can be more quantitatively evaluated using risk analysis method.

  • PDF

Normalization Diagnosis of Aging Process on Partial Discharge Signals of CV Cable (CV케이블의 부분방전 신호를 통한 열화과정의 정량적 진단)

  • 소순열;임장섭;김진사;이준웅;김태성
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Electrical and Electronic Material Engineers Conference
    • /
    • 1997.11a
    • /
    • pp.451-455
    • /
    • 1997
  • The partial discharge has been blown as the chief breakdown of power equipments. The analysis and the recognition is much difficult because the partial discharge signal is very small and has complex aging pattern. Recently, insulation aging diagnosis based on pattern of phase(Ф), partial discharge magnitude(q), number(n) has been very important. Owing to depreciate the reappearance of aging progress at the electrical tree pattern and to be difficult to analyze visually, the study on partial discharge pattern is suggested to normalizing analysis method of partial discharge signals. This parer is purposed on prediction of life-time measurement of cv-cable, on decision of risk degree with normalization and real-time measurement of partial discharge signals for aging diagnosis of cv-cable. As normalizing the aging signals of electrical tree in cv-cable, it is able to confirm risk degree of insulation material with the distribution of Ф-q-n and recognize the process of aging pattern using neural network.

  • PDF

A Study on Reliability Analysis and Quantitative Risk Analysis for Liquefied Petroleum Gas Station (LPG 충전시설에 대한 신뢰도 분석과 정량적 위험성 분석에 관한 연구)

  • Kim In-Won;Jin Sang-Hwa;Kim Tea-Woo;Kim In-Tae;Yeo Yeong-Koo
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Gas
    • /
    • v.5 no.4 s.16
    • /
    • pp.40-48
    • /
    • 2001
  • For a Liquified Petroleum Gas(LPG) station, the reliability analysis, such as Fussell-Vesely importance, risk decrease factor and risk increase factor, was carried out and the risk ranks of events were determined. In order to confirm the degree of the risks identified in the reliability analysis, the quantitative risk analysis was done for the equipments which had the large values of risk ranks. As a result of the importance analysis for the LPG station, the external event was identified as the most riskful event. The defect of construction structure and the pipe corrosion were riskful as well. The result of quantitative risk analysis showed that the length of 46.3 meters were estimated to damage the process equipments by the thermal flux from the catastrophic rupture of storage tank in Boiling Liquid Expanding Vapor Explosion.

  • PDF