• Journal of the Korea Society for Simulation
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• v.31 no.3
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• pp.35-44
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• 2022

In this study, we analyze and forecast quantum computer technology trends. Previous research has been mainly focused on application fields centered on technology for quantum computer technology trends analysis. Therefore, this paper analyzes important quantum computer technologies and performs future signal detection and prediction, for a more market driven technical analysis and prediction. As analyzing words used in news articles to identify rapidly changing market changes and public interest. This paper extends conference presentation of Cha & Chang (2022). The research is conducted by collecting domestic news articles from 2019 to 2021. First, we organize the main keywords through text mining. Next, we explore future quantum computer technologies through analysis of Term Frequency - Inverse Document Frequency(TF-IDF), Key Issue Map(KIM), and Key Emergence Map (KEM). Finally, the relationship between future technologies and supply and demand is identified through random forests, decision trees, and correlation analysis. As results of the study, the interest in artificial intelligence was the highest in frequency analysis, keyword diffusion and visibility analysis. In terms of cyber-security, the rate of mention in news articles is getting overwhelmingly higher than that of other technologies. Quantum communication, resistant cryptography, and augmented reality also showed a high rate of increase in interest. These results show that the expectation is high for applying trend technology in the market. The results of this study can be applied to identifying areas of interest in the quantum computer market and establishing a response system related to technology investment.

• The Journal of Society for e-Business Studies
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• v.27 no.2
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• pp.65-77
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• 2022

Due to the recent development in electronic financial services, transactions of electronic prepayment are rapidly growing, leading to growing fraud attempts. This paper proposes a methodology that can effectively detect fraud transactions in electronic prepayment by machine learning algorithms, including support vector machines, decision trees, and artificial neural networks. Actual transaction data of electronic prepayment services were collected and preprocessed to extract the most relevant variables from raw data. Two different approaches were explored in the paper. One is a transaction-based approach, and the other is a user ID-based approach. For the transaction-based approach, the first model is primarily based on raw data features, while the second model uses extra features in addition to the first model. The user ID-based approach also used feature engineering to extract and transform the most relevant features. Overall, the user ID-based approach showed a better performance than the transaction-based approach, where the artificial neural networks showed the best performance. The proposed method could be used to reduce the damage caused by financial accidents by detecting and blocking fraud attempts.

• The Journal of the Acoustical Society of Korea
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• v.28 no.6
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• pp.572-577
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• 2009

Large corpus-based concatenating Text-to-Speech (TTS) systems can generate natural synthetic speech without additional signal processing. To prune the redundant speech segments in a large speech segment DB, we can utilize a decision-tree based triphone clustering algorithm widely used in speech recognition area. But, the conventional methods have problems in representing the acoustic transitional characteristics of the phones and in applying context questions with hierarchic priority. In this paper, we propose a new clustering algorithm to downsize the speech DB. Firstly, three 13th order MFCC vectors from first, medial, and final frame of a phone are combined into a 39 dimensional vector to represent the transitional characteristics of a phone. And then the hierarchically grouped three question sets are used to construct the triphone trees. For the performance test, we used DTW algorithm to calculate the acoustic similarity between the target triphone and the triphone from the tree search result. Experimental results show that the proposed method can reduce the size of speech DB by 23% and select better phones with higher acoustic similarity. Therefore the proposed method can be applied to make a small sized TTS.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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• v.23 no.1
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• pp.15-33
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• 2021

In this study, the possibility of discriminating Fire blight (FB) infection tested using the hyperspectral imagery. The reflectance of healthy and infected leaves and branches was acquired with 5 nm of full width at high maximum (FWHM) and then it was standardized to 10 nm, 25 nm, 50 nm, and 80 nm of FWHM. The standardized samples were divided into training and test sets at ratios of 7:3, 5:5 and 3:7 to find the optimal bands of FWHM by the decision tree analysis. Classification accuracy was evaluated using overall accuracy (OA) and kappa coefficient (KC). The hyperspectral reflectance of infected leaves and branches was significantly lower than those of healthy green, red-edge (RE) and near infrared (NIR) regions. The bands selected for the first node were generally 750 and 800 nm; these were used to identify the infection of leaves and branches, respectively. The accuracy of the classifier was higher in the 7:3 ratio. Four bands with 50 nm of FWHM (450, 650, 750, and 950 nm) might be reasonable because the difference in the recalculated accuracy between 8 bands with 10 nm of FWHM (440, 580, 640, 660, 680, 710, 730, and 740 nm) and 4 bands was only 1.8% for OA and 4.1% for KC, respectively. Finally, adding two bands (550 nm and 800 nm with 25 nm of FWHM) in four bands with 50 nm of FWHM have been proposed to improve the usability of multispectral image sensors with performing various roles in agriculture as well as detecting FB with other combinations of spectral bands.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.21 no.2
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• pp.93-112
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• 2015

Depending on the change in consumer's consumption pattern, existing retail shop has evolved in hypermarket or convenience store offering grocery and daily products mostly. Therefore, it is important to maintain the inventory levels and proper product configuration for effectively utilize the limited space in the retail store and increasing sales. Accordingly, this study proposed proper product configuration and inventory level strategy based on RFM(Recency, Frequency, Monetary) model and SOM(self-organizing map) for manage the retail shop effectively. RFM model is analytic model to analyze customer behaviors based on the past customer's buying activities. And it can differentiates important customers from large data by three variables. R represents recency, which refers to the last purchase of commodities. The latest consuming customer has bigger R. F represents frequency, which refers to the number of transactions in a particular period and M represents monetary, which refers to consumption money amount in a particular period. Thus, RFM method has been known to be a very effective model for customer segmentation. In this study, using a normalized value of the RFM variables, SOM cluster analysis was performed. SOM is regarded as one of the most distinguished artificial neural network models in the unsupervised learning tool space. It is a popular tool for clustering and visualization of high dimensional data in such a way that similar items are grouped spatially close to one another. In particular, it has been successfully applied in various technical fields for finding patterns. In our research, the procedure tries to find sales patterns by analyzing product sales records with Recency, Frequency and Monetary values. And to suggest a business strategy, we conduct the decision tree based on SOM results. To validate the proposed procedure in this study, we adopted the M-mart data collected between 2014.01.01~2014.12.31. Each product get the value of R, F, M, and they are clustered by 9 using SOM. And we also performed three tests using the weekday data, weekend data, whole data in order to analyze the sales pattern change. In order to propose the strategy of each cluster, we examine the criteria of product clustering. The clusters through the SOM can be explained by the characteristics of these clusters of decision trees. As a result, we can suggest the inventory management strategy of each 9 clusters through the suggested procedures of the study. The highest of all three value(R, F, M) cluster's products need to have high level of the inventory as well as to be disposed in a place where it can be increasing customer's path. In contrast, the lowest of all three value(R, F, M) cluster's products need to have low level of inventory as well as to be disposed in a place where visibility is low. The highest R value cluster's products is usually new releases products, and need to be placed on the front of the store. And, manager should decrease inventory levels gradually in the highest F value cluster's products purchased in the past. Because, we assume that cluster has lower R value and the M value than the average value of good. And it can be deduced that product are sold poorly in recent days and total sales also will be lower than the frequency. The procedure presented in this study is expected to contribute to raising the profitability of the retail store. The paper is organized as follows. The second chapter briefly reviews the literature related to this study. The third chapter suggests procedures for research proposals, and the fourth chapter applied suggested procedure using the actual product sales data. Finally, the fifth chapter described the conclusion of the study and further research.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.17 no.4
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• pp.241-254
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• 2011

Financial time-series forecasting is one of the most important issues because it is essential for the risk management of financial institutions. Therefore, researchers have tried to forecast financial time-series using various data mining techniques such as regression, artificial neural networks, decision trees, k-nearest neighbor etc. Recently, support vector machines (SVMs) are popularly applied to this research area because they have advantages that they don't require huge training data and have low possibility of overfitting. However, a user must determine several design factors by heuristics in order to use SVM. For example, the selection of appropriate kernel function and its parameters and proper feature subset selection are major design factors of SVM. Other than these factors, the proper selection of instance subset may also improve the forecasting performance of SVM by eliminating irrelevant and distorting training instances. Nonetheless, there have been few studies that have applied instance selection to SVM, especially in the domain of stock market prediction. Instance selection tries to choose proper instance subsets from original training data. It may be considered as a method of knowledge refinement and it maintains the instance-base. This study proposes the novel instance selection algorithm for SVMs. The proposed technique in this study uses genetic algorithm (GA) to optimize instance selection process with parameter optimization simultaneously. We call the model as ISVM (SVM with Instance selection) in this study. Experiments on stock market data are implemented using ISVM. In this study, the GA searches for optimal or near-optimal values of kernel parameters and relevant instances for SVMs. This study needs two sets of parameters in chromosomes in GA setting : The codes for kernel parameters and for instance selection. For the controlling parameters of the GA search, the population size is set at 50 organisms and the value of the crossover rate is set at 0.7 while the mutation rate is 0.1. As the stopping condition, 50 generations are permitted. The application data used in this study consists of technical indicators and the direction of change in the daily Korea stock price index (KOSPI). The total number of samples is 2218 trading days. We separate the whole data into three subsets as training, test, hold-out data set. The number of data in each subset is 1056, 581, 581 respectively. This study compares ISVM to several comparative models including logistic regression (logit), backpropagation neural networks (ANN), nearest neighbor (1-NN), conventional SVM (SVM) and SVM with the optimized parameters (PSVM). In especial, PSVM uses optimized kernel parameters by the genetic algorithm. The experimental results show that ISVM outperforms 1-NN by 15.32%, ANN by 6.89%, Logit and SVM by 5.34%, and PSVM by 4.82% for the holdout data. For ISVM, only 556 data from 1056 original training data are used to produce the result. In addition, the two-sample test for proportions is used to examine whether ISVM significantly outperforms other comparative models. The results indicate that ISVM outperforms ANN and 1-NN at the 1% statistical significance level. In addition, ISVM performs better than Logit, SVM and PSVM at the 5% statistical significance level.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.17 no.4
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• pp.157-173
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• 2011

As the Internet use explodes recently, the malicious attacks and hacking for a system connected to network occur frequently. This means the fatal damage can be caused by these intrusions in the government agency, public office, and company operating various systems. For such reasons, there are growing interests and demand about the intrusion detection systems (IDS)-the security systems for detecting, identifying and responding to unauthorized or abnormal activities appropriately. The intrusion detection models that have been applied in conventional IDS are generally designed by modeling the experts' implicit knowledge on the network intrusions or the hackers' abnormal behaviors. These kinds of intrusion detection models perform well under the normal situations. However, they show poor performance when they meet a new or unknown pattern of the network attacks. For this reason, several recent studies try to adopt various artificial intelligence techniques, which can proactively respond to the unknown threats. Especially, artificial neural networks (ANNs) have popularly been applied in the prior studies because of its superior prediction accuracy. However, ANNs have some intrinsic limitations such as the risk of overfitting, the requirement of the large sample size, and the lack of understanding the prediction process (i.e. black box theory). As a result, the most recent studies on IDS have started to adopt support vector machine (SVM), the classification technique that is more stable and powerful compared to ANNs. SVM is known as a relatively high predictive power and generalization capability. Under this background, this study proposes a novel intelligent intrusion detection model that uses SVM as the classification model in order to improve the predictive ability of IDS. Also, our model is designed to consider the asymmetric error cost by optimizing the classification threshold. Generally, there are two common forms of errors in intrusion detection. The first error type is the False-Positive Error (FPE). In the case of FPE, the wrong judgment on it may result in the unnecessary fixation. The second error type is the False-Negative Error (FNE) that mainly misjudges the malware of the program as normal. Compared to FPE, FNE is more fatal. Thus, when considering total cost of misclassification in IDS, it is more reasonable to assign heavier weights on FNE rather than FPE. Therefore, we designed our proposed intrusion detection model to optimize the classification threshold in order to minimize the total misclassification cost. In this case, conventional SVM cannot be applied because it is designed to generate discrete output (i.e. a class). To resolve this problem, we used the revised SVM technique proposed by Platt(2000), which is able to generate the probability estimate. To validate the practical applicability of our model, we applied it to the real-world dataset for network intrusion detection. The experimental dataset was collected from the IDS sensor of an official institution in Korea from January to June 2010. We collected 15,000 log data in total, and selected 1,000 samples from them by using random sampling method. In addition, the SVM model was compared with the logistic regression (LOGIT), decision trees (DT), and ANN to confirm the superiority of the proposed model. LOGIT and DT was experimented using PASW Statistics v18.0, and ANN was experimented using Neuroshell 4.0. For SVM, LIBSVM v2.90-a freeware for training SVM classifier-was used. Empirical results showed that our proposed model based on SVM outperformed all the other comparative models in detecting network intrusions from the accuracy perspective. They also showed that our model reduced the total misclassification cost compared to the ANN-based intrusion detection model. As a result, it is expected that the intrusion detection model proposed in this paper would not only enhance the performance of IDS, but also lead to better management of FNE.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.21 no.3
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• pp.79-99
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• 2015

The prediction of bankruptcy has been extensively studied in the accounting and finance field. It can have an important impact on lending decisions and the profitability of financial institutions in terms of risk management. Many researchers have focused on constructing a more robust bankruptcy prediction model. Early studies primarily used statistical techniques such as multiple discriminant analysis (MDA) and logit analysis for bankruptcy prediction. However, many studies have demonstrated that artificial intelligence (AI) approaches, such as artificial neural networks (ANN), decision trees, case-based reasoning (CBR), and support vector machine (SVM), have been outperforming statistical techniques since 1990s for business classification problems because statistical methods have some rigid assumptions in their application. In previous studies on corporate bankruptcy, many researchers have focused on developing a bankruptcy prediction model using financial ratios. However, there are few studies that suggest the specific types of bankruptcy. Previous bankruptcy prediction models have generally been interested in predicting whether or not firms will become bankrupt. Most of the studies on bankruptcy types have focused on reviewing the previous literature or performing a case study. Thus, this study develops a model using data mining techniques for predicting the specific types of bankruptcy as well as the occurrence of bankruptcy in Korean small- and medium-sized construction firms in terms of profitability, stability, and activity index. Thus, firms will be able to prevent it from occurring in advance. We propose a hybrid approach using two artificial neural networks (ANNs) for the prediction of bankruptcy types. The first is a back-propagation neural network (BPN) model using supervised learning for bankruptcy prediction and the second is a self-organizing map (SOM) model using unsupervised learning to classify bankruptcy data into several types. Based on the constructed model, we predict the bankruptcy of companies by applying the BPN model to a validation set that was not utilized in the development of the model. This allows for identifying the specific types of bankruptcy by using bankruptcy data predicted by the BPN model. We calculated the average of selected input variables through statistical test for each cluster to interpret characteristics of the derived clusters in the SOM model. Each cluster represents bankruptcy type classified through data of bankruptcy firms, and input variables indicate financial ratios in interpreting the meaning of each cluster. The experimental result shows that each of five bankruptcy types has different characteristics according to financial ratios. Type 1 (severe bankruptcy) has inferior financial statements except for EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) to sales based on the clustering results. Type 2 (lack of stability) has a low quick ratio, low stockholder's equity to total assets, and high total borrowings to total assets. Type 3 (lack of activity) has a slightly low total asset turnover and fixed asset turnover. Type 4 (lack of profitability) has low retained earnings to total assets and EBITDA to sales which represent the indices of profitability. Type 5 (recoverable bankruptcy) includes firms that have a relatively good financial condition as compared to other bankruptcy types even though they are bankrupt. Based on the findings, researchers and practitioners engaged in the credit evaluation field can obtain more useful information about the types of corporate bankruptcy. In this paper, we utilized the financial ratios of firms to classify bankruptcy types. It is important to select the input variables that correctly predict bankruptcy and meaningfully classify the type of bankruptcy. In a further study, we will include non-financial factors such as size, industry, and age of the firms. Thus, we can obtain realistic clustering results for bankruptcy types by combining qualitative factors and reflecting the domain knowledge of experts.

• Journal of the Korean Institute of Landscape Architecture
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• v.45 no.2
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• pp.40-50
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• 2017

Compared to the traditional format, the revised IPA is an effective method for selecting a management strategy as compared to the traditional IPA. Comparison between the traditional IPA and revised IPA with a management strategy has been, however, limited. Therefore, the difference between the traditional IPA and revised IPA was compared to select an effective management strategy in the Suncheon Bay Wetland Reserve. First of all, related papers were reviewed to select an appropriate revised IPA. It was found that Deng (2007)'s revised IPA was appropriate for quantifying service quality and a management strategy that affects the measurable satisfaction of visitors in the space. Second, the results of the traditional IPA were compared with the revised IPA in the Suncheon Bay Wetland Reserve and the management strategy of the revised IPA and the changes of management factors were discussed. It was found that some management factors deviated from the order of the quadrant "low priority for managers", "Concentrate management here", "Keep up the good work" were moved to the order of the quadrants "Concentrate management here", "low priority for managers" and "Possible overkill" in the revised IPA grid. The complexity as a management factor resulted in higher demand management than the traditional IPA, which moved from "low priority for managers" to "Concentrate management here". Management factors resulted in lower demand management than the traditional IPA moved from "Concentrate management here" to "low priority for managers"; these consisted of shade trees, exhibition exteriors, programs, and a guided tour. Also, management factors moved from "Keep up the good work" to "Possible overkill" consisted of relaxation facilities, glow of the setting sun, a hedge, and an exhibition interior. Over all, the revised IPA responded properly to changes in the measurable satisfaction of visitors to the Suncheon Bay Wetland Reserve. Therefore, a revised IPA should be provided for accurate and reliable guidelines when decision makers establish management strategies.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.22 no.2
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• pp.33-56
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• 2016

Many researchers have focused on developing bankruptcy prediction models using modeling techniques, such as statistical methods including multiple discriminant analysis (MDA) and logit analysis or artificial intelligence techniques containing artificial neural networks (ANN), decision trees, and support vector machines (SVM), to secure enhanced performance. Most of the bankruptcy prediction models in academic studies have used financial ratios as main input variables. The bankruptcy of firms is associated with firm's financial states and the external economic situation. However, the inclusion of qualitative information, such as the economic atmosphere, has not been actively discussed despite the fact that exploiting only financial ratios has some drawbacks. Accounting information, such as financial ratios, is based on past data, and it is usually determined one year before bankruptcy. Thus, a time lag exists between the point of closing financial statements and the point of credit evaluation. In addition, financial ratios do not contain environmental factors, such as external economic situations. Therefore, using only financial ratios may be insufficient in constructing a bankruptcy prediction model, because they essentially reflect past corporate internal accounting information while neglecting recent information. Thus, qualitative information must be added to the conventional bankruptcy prediction model to supplement accounting information. Due to the lack of an analytic mechanism for obtaining and processing qualitative information from various information sources, previous studies have only used qualitative information. However, recently, big data analytics, such as text mining techniques, have been drawing much attention in academia and industry, with an increasing amount of unstructured text data available on the web. A few previous studies have sought to adopt big data analytics in business prediction modeling. Nevertheless, the use of qualitative information on the web for business prediction modeling is still deemed to be in the primary stage, restricted to limited applications, such as stock prediction and movie revenue prediction applications. Thus, it is necessary to apply big data analytics techniques, such as text mining, to various business prediction problems, including credit risk evaluation. Analytic methods are required for processing qualitative information represented in unstructured text form due to the complexity of managing and processing unstructured text data. This study proposes a bankruptcy prediction model for Korean small- and medium-sized construction firms using both quantitative information, such as financial ratios, and qualitative information acquired from economic news articles. The performance of the proposed method depends on how well information types are transformed from qualitative into quantitative information that is suitable for incorporating into the bankruptcy prediction model. We employ big data analytics techniques, especially text mining, as a mechanism for processing qualitative information. The sentiment index is provided at the industry level by extracting from a large amount of text data to quantify the external economic atmosphere represented in the media. The proposed method involves keyword-based sentiment analysis using a domain-specific sentiment lexicon to extract sentiment from economic news articles. The generated sentiment lexicon is designed to represent sentiment for the construction business by considering the relationship between the occurring term and the actual situation with respect to the economic condition of the industry rather than the inherent semantics of the term. The experimental results proved that incorporating qualitative information based on big data analytics into the traditional bankruptcy prediction model based on accounting information is effective for enhancing the predictive performance. The sentiment variable extracted from economic news articles had an impact on corporate bankruptcy. In particular, a negative sentiment variable improved the accuracy of corporate bankruptcy prediction because the corporate bankruptcy of construction firms is sensitive to poor economic conditions. The bankruptcy prediction model using qualitative information based on big data analytics contributes to the field, in that it reflects not only relatively recent information but also environmental factors, such as external economic conditions.