• Title/Summary/Keyword: Decision-Making Models

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Applicability evaluation of GIS-based erosion models for post-fire small watershed in the wildland-urban interface (WUI 산불 소유역에 대한 GIS 기반 침식모형의 적용성 평가)

  • Shin, Seung Sook;Ahn, Seunghyo;Song, Jinuk;Chae, Guk Seok;Park, Sang Deog
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.57 no.6
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    • pp.421-435
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    • 2024
  • In April 2023, a wildfire broke out in Gangneung located in the east coast region due to the influence of the Yanggang-local wind. In this study, GIS-based RUSLE(Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation) and SEMMA (Soil Erosion Model for Mountain Areas) were used to evaluate the erosion rate due to vegetation recovery in a small watershed of the Gangneung WUI(Wildland-Urban Interface) fire. The small watershed of WUI fire has a low altitude range of 10-30 m and the average slope of 10.0±7.4° which corresponds to a gentle slope. The soil texture was loamy sand with a high organic content and the deep soil depth. As herbaceous layer regenerated profusely in the gully after the wildfire, the NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) reached a maximum of 0.55. Simulation results of erosion rates showed that RUSLE ranged from 0.07-94.9 t/ha/storm and SEMMA ranged from 0.24-83.6 t/ha/storm. RUSLE overestimated the average erosion rate by 1.19-1.48 times compared to SEMMA. The erosion rates were estimated to be high in the middle slope where burned pine trees were widely distributed and the slope was steep and to be relatively low in the hollow below the gully where herbaceous layer recovers rapidly. SEMMA showed a rapid increase in erosion sensitivity under at certain vegetation covers with NDVI below 0.25 (Ic = 0.35) on post-fire hillslopes. Gentle slopes with high organic content and rapid recovery of natural vegetation had relatively low erosion rate compared to steep slopes. As subsequent infrastructure and human damages due to sediment disaster by heavy rain is anticipated in WUI fire areas, the research results may be used as basic data for targeted management and decision making on the implementation of emergency treatment after the wildfire.

The Relationship between Financial Constraints and Investment Activities : Evidenced from Korean Logistics Firms (우리나라 물류기업의 재무제약 수준과 투자활동과의 관련성에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Sung-Yhun
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.40 no.2
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    • pp.65-78
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    • 2024
  • This study investigates the correlation between financial constraints and investment activities in Korean logistics firms. A sample of 340 companies engaged in the transportation sector, as per the 2021 KSIC, was selected for analysis. Financial data obtained from the DART were used to compile a panel dataset spanning from 1996 to 2021, totaling 6,155 observations. The research model was validated, and tests for heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation in the error terms were conducted considering the panel data structure. The relationship between investment activities in the previous period and current investment activities was analyzed using panel Generalized Method of Moments(GMM). The validation results of the research indicate that Korean logistics firms tend to increase investment activities as their level of financial constraints improves. Specifically, a positive relationship between the level of financial constraints and investment activities was consistently observed across all models. These findings suggest that investment decision-making varies based on the financial constraints faced by companies, aligning with previous research indicating that investment activities of constrained firms are subdued. Moreover, while the results from the model examining whether investment activities in the previous period affect current investment activities indicated an influence of investment activities from the previous period on current investment activities, the investment activities from two periods ago did not show a significant relationship with current investment activities. Among the control variables, firm size and cash flow variables exhibited positive relationships, while debt size and asset diversification variables showed negative relationships. Thus, larger firm size and smoother cash flows were associated with more proactive investment activities, while high debt levels and extensive asset diversification appeared to constrain investment activities in logistics companies. These results interpret that under financial constraints, internal funding sources such as cash flows exhibit positive relationships, whereas external capital sources such as debt demonstrate negative relationships, consistent with empirical findings from previous research.

A Study on Searching for Export Candidate Countries of the Korean Food and Beverage Industry Using Node2vec Graph Embedding and Light GBM Link Prediction (Node2vec 그래프 임베딩과 Light GBM 링크 예측을 활용한 식음료 산업의 수출 후보국가 탐색 연구)

  • Lee, Jae-Seong;Jun, Seung-Pyo;Seo, Jinny
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.27 no.4
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    • pp.73-95
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    • 2021
  • This study uses Node2vec graph embedding method and Light GBM link prediction to explore undeveloped export candidate countries in Korea's food and beverage industry. Node2vec is the method that improves the limit of the structural equivalence representation of the network, which is known to be relatively weak compared to the existing link prediction method based on the number of common neighbors of the network. Therefore, the method is known to show excellent performance in both community detection and structural equivalence of the network. The vector value obtained by embedding the network in this way operates under the condition of a constant length from an arbitrarily designated starting point node. Therefore, it has the advantage that it is easy to apply the sequence of nodes as an input value to the model for downstream tasks such as Logistic Regression, Support Vector Machine, and Random Forest. Based on these features of the Node2vec graph embedding method, this study applied the above method to the international trade information of the Korean food and beverage industry. Through this, we intend to contribute to creating the effect of extensive margin diversification in Korea in the global value chain relationship of the industry. The optimal predictive model derived from the results of this study recorded a precision of 0.95 and a recall of 0.79, and an F1 score of 0.86, showing excellent performance. This performance was shown to be superior to that of the binary classifier based on Logistic Regression set as the baseline model. In the baseline model, a precision of 0.95 and a recall of 0.73 were recorded, and an F1 score of 0.83 was recorded. In addition, the light GBM-based optimal prediction model derived from this study showed superior performance than the link prediction model of previous studies, which is set as a benchmarking model in this study. The predictive model of the previous study recorded only a recall rate of 0.75, but the proposed model of this study showed better performance which recall rate is 0.79. The difference in the performance of the prediction results between benchmarking model and this study model is due to the model learning strategy. In this study, groups were classified by the trade value scale, and prediction models were trained differently for these groups. Specific methods are (1) a method of randomly masking and learning a model for all trades without setting specific conditions for trade value, (2) arbitrarily masking a part of the trades with an average trade value or higher and using the model method, and (3) a method of arbitrarily masking some of the trades with the top 25% or higher trade value and learning the model. As a result of the experiment, it was confirmed that the performance of the model trained by randomly masking some of the trades with the above-average trade value in this method was the best and appeared stably. It was found that most of the results of potential export candidates for Korea derived through the above model appeared appropriate through additional investigation. Combining the above, this study could suggest the practical utility of the link prediction method applying Node2vec and Light GBM. In addition, useful implications could be derived for weight update strategies that can perform better link prediction while training the model. On the other hand, this study also has policy utility because it is applied to trade transactions that have not been performed much in the research related to link prediction based on graph embedding. The results of this study support a rapid response to changes in the global value chain such as the recent US-China trade conflict or Japan's export regulations, and I think that it has sufficient usefulness as a tool for policy decision-making.

An Empirical Study on the Influencing Factors for Big Data Intented Adoption: Focusing on the Strategic Value Recognition and TOE Framework (빅데이터 도입의도에 미치는 영향요인에 관한 연구: 전략적 가치인식과 TOE(Technology Organizational Environment) Framework을 중심으로)

  • Ka, Hoi-Kwang;Kim, Jin-soo
    • Asia pacific journal of information systems
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    • v.24 no.4
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    • pp.443-472
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    • 2014
  • To survive in the global competitive environment, enterprise should be able to solve various problems and find the optimal solution effectively. The big-data is being perceived as a tool for solving enterprise problems effectively and improve competitiveness with its' various problem solving and advanced predictive capabilities. Due to its remarkable performance, the implementation of big data systems has been increased through many enterprises around the world. Currently the big-data is called the 'crude oil' of the 21st century and is expected to provide competitive superiority. The reason why the big data is in the limelight is because while the conventional IT technology has been falling behind much in its possibility level, the big data has gone beyond the technological possibility and has the advantage of being utilized to create new values such as business optimization and new business creation through analysis of big data. Since the big data has been introduced too hastily without considering the strategic value deduction and achievement obtained through the big data, however, there are difficulties in the strategic value deduction and data utilization that can be gained through big data. According to the survey result of 1,800 IT professionals from 18 countries world wide, the percentage of the corporation where the big data is being utilized well was only 28%, and many of them responded that they are having difficulties in strategic value deduction and operation through big data. The strategic value should be deducted and environment phases like corporate internal and external related regulations and systems should be considered in order to introduce big data, but these factors were not well being reflected. The cause of the failure turned out to be that the big data was introduced by way of the IT trend and surrounding environment, but it was introduced hastily in the situation where the introduction condition was not well arranged. The strategic value which can be obtained through big data should be clearly comprehended and systematic environment analysis is very important about applicability in order to introduce successful big data, but since the corporations are considering only partial achievements and technological phases that can be obtained through big data, the successful introduction is not being made. Previous study shows that most of big data researches are focused on big data concept, cases, and practical suggestions without empirical study. The purpose of this study is provide the theoretically and practically useful implementation framework and strategies of big data systems with conducting comprehensive literature review, finding influencing factors for successful big data systems implementation, and analysing empirical models. To do this, the elements which can affect the introduction intention of big data were deducted by reviewing the information system's successful factors, strategic value perception factors, considering factors for the information system introduction environment and big data related literature in order to comprehend the effect factors when the corporations introduce big data and structured questionnaire was developed. After that, the questionnaire and the statistical analysis were performed with the people in charge of the big data inside the corporations as objects. According to the statistical analysis, it was shown that the strategic value perception factor and the inside-industry environmental factors affected positively the introduction intention of big data. The theoretical, practical and political implications deducted from the study result is as follows. The frist theoretical implication is that this study has proposed theoretically effect factors which affect the introduction intention of big data by reviewing the strategic value perception and environmental factors and big data related precedent studies and proposed the variables and measurement items which were analyzed empirically and verified. This study has meaning in that it has measured the influence of each variable on the introduction intention by verifying the relationship between the independent variables and the dependent variables through structural equation model. Second, this study has defined the independent variable(strategic value perception, environment), dependent variable(introduction intention) and regulatory variable(type of business and corporate size) about big data introduction intention and has arranged theoretical base in studying big data related field empirically afterwards by developing measurement items which has obtained credibility and validity. Third, by verifying the strategic value perception factors and the significance about environmental factors proposed in the conventional precedent studies, this study will be able to give aid to the afterwards empirical study about effect factors on big data introduction. The operational implications are as follows. First, this study has arranged the empirical study base about big data field by investigating the cause and effect relationship about the influence of the strategic value perception factor and environmental factor on the introduction intention and proposing the measurement items which has obtained the justice, credibility and validity etc. Second, this study has proposed the study result that the strategic value perception factor affects positively the big data introduction intention and it has meaning in that the importance of the strategic value perception has been presented. Third, the study has proposed that the corporation which introduces big data should consider the big data introduction through precise analysis about industry's internal environment. Fourth, this study has proposed the point that the size and type of business of the corresponding corporation should be considered in introducing the big data by presenting the difference of the effect factors of big data introduction depending on the size and type of business of the corporation. The political implications are as follows. First, variety of utilization of big data is needed. The strategic value that big data has can be accessed in various ways in the product, service field, productivity field, decision making field etc and can be utilized in all the business fields based on that, but the parts that main domestic corporations are considering are limited to some parts of the products and service fields. Accordingly, in introducing big data, reviewing the phase about utilization in detail and design the big data system in a form which can maximize the utilization rate will be necessary. Second, the study is proposing the burden of the cost of the system introduction, difficulty in utilization in the system and lack of credibility in the supply corporations etc in the big data introduction phase by corporations. Since the world IT corporations are predominating the big data market, the big data introduction of domestic corporations can not but to be dependent on the foreign corporations. When considering that fact, that our country does not have global IT corporations even though it is world powerful IT country, the big data can be thought to be the chance to rear world level corporations. Accordingly, the government shall need to rear star corporations through active political support. Third, the corporations' internal and external professional manpower for the big data introduction and operation lacks. Big data is a system where how valuable data can be deducted utilizing data is more important than the system construction itself. For this, talent who are equipped with academic knowledge and experience in various fields like IT, statistics, strategy and management etc and manpower training should be implemented through systematic education for these talents. This study has arranged theoretical base for empirical studies about big data related fields by comprehending the main variables which affect the big data introduction intention and verifying them and is expected to be able to propose useful guidelines for the corporations and policy developers who are considering big data implementationby analyzing empirically that theoretical base.