• Title/Summary/Keyword: Decision-Making Models

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Combining Judgments for Better Decisions: A Study for Investigating Effective Combining Schemes

  • Lee, Hoon-Young
    • Journal of the Korean Operations Research and Management Science Society
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    • v.21 no.3
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    • pp.159-174
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    • 1996
  • Facing decision-making tasks, managers frequently make judgments, However, since managers are human beings, the fficiency of their judgments is limited. Two major sources of inefficiency in their judgments have been recognized : one is systematic deviations from normatively preferred decisions, so called bias or incorrect intuition, and the other is inconsistency in their judgments, i. e. erratic decision making variance. Rather than bias, variance is really expensive or damaging. Thus, if the inconsistency inmanagers judgments is removed, performance could be by far improved by virtue of the reduced random variance. One of the approaches to improve managerial judgment is to simply bring managers together by effectively moderating the random variance due to inconsistency. Focusing on combining judgments, this paper addresses many relevant issues such as why combining and how to combine judgments, and suggests methods and models to effectively aggregate subjective judgments, We conduct an experiment to validata the effectiveness of combining jugements over individual judgments. Various combining schemes are also evaluated in terms of their prective accuracy. Among them, mean bias based wighting scheme turns out the best. However, when available information is not enough to estimate the expertise of judges, simple and robust equal weighting might be more efficient and productive. This urges an imperative future research on the issue of how many and which ones to combine from a large set of experts.

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Success Factors for Web-based Agricultural Information Systems (웹기반 농업정보시스템 성공요인에 관한 연구)

  • Yoo, Chul-Woo;Park, Soo-Min;Choe, Young-Chan;Shim, Gun-Seop
    • Journal of Korean Society of Rural Planning
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    • v.15 no.4
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    • pp.59-74
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    • 2009
  • This study reviews and modifies general IS success models to find success factors of WIS(Web-based Information Systems) and to confirm the relationship between WIS success and user's satisfaction of web use. A WISSM(Web-based Information Success Model extended to include EQ(E-Quality) is developed to anticipate user's intention to use Web-based Agricultural Information System and fit into the survey data from 252 WIS users of RDA(Rural Development Administration). PLS is applied to estimate a structural model based on EQ-WISSM to test hypotheses including 1) users reach a high level of intention to use Web-based Information Systems when they feel a high level of interactivity among an 'E-Quality', 'Decision Making Support Satisfaction' and 'Task Support Satisfaction', and E-Quality boosts intention to use Web-based Information Systems. The results show high path coefficients and $R^2$ values and find followings; First, the EQ-WISSM explains the user's intention to use WAIS quite well. Second, E-Quality can be used well in web-based IS environment to predict IS Success. Finally, this research finds the importance of 'Task Support Satisfaction' as a mediator between 'Decision Making Support Satisfaction', 'E-Quality' and 'Intention to Use'.

Developing a Method to Define Mountain Search Priority Areas Based on Behavioral Characteristics of Missing Persons

  • Yoo, Ho Jin;Lee, Jiyeong
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Surveying, Geodesy, Photogrammetry and Cartography
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    • v.37 no.5
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    • pp.293-302
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    • 2019
  • In mountain accident events, it is important for the search team commander to determine the search area in order to secure the Golden Time. Within this period, assistance and treatment to the concerned individual will most likely prevent further injuries and harm. This paper proposes a method to determine the search priority area based on missing persons behavior and missing persons incidents statistics. GIS (Geographic Information System) and MCDM (Multi Criteria Decision Making) are integrated by applying WLC (Weighted Linear Combination) techniques. Missing persons were classified into five types, and their behavioral characteristics were analyzed to extract seven geographic analysis factors. Next, index values were set up for each missing person and element according to the behavioral characteristics, and the raster data generated by multiplying the weight of each element are superimposed to define models to select search priority areas, where each weight is calculated from the AHP (Analytical Hierarchy Process) through a pairwise comparison method obtained from search operation experts. Finally, the model generated in this study was applied to a missing person case through a virtual missing scenario, the priority area was selected, and the behavioral characteristics and topographical characteristics of the missing persons were compared with the selected area. The resulting analysis results were verified by mountain rescue experts as 'appropriate' in terms of the behavior analysis, analysis factor extraction, experimental process, and results for the missing persons.

Interdisciplinary Knowledge for Teaching: A Model for Epistemic Support in Elementary Classrooms

  • Lilly, Sarah;Chiu, Jennifer L.;McElhaney, Kevin W.
    • Research in Mathematical Education
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    • v.24 no.3
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    • pp.137-173
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    • 2021
  • Research and national standards, such as the Next Generation Science Standards (NGSS) in the United States, promote the development and implementation of K-12 interdisciplinary curricula integrating the disciplines of science, technology, engineering, mathematics, and computer science (STEM+CS). However, little research has explored how teachers provide epistemic support in interdisciplinary contexts or the factors that inform teachers' epistemic support in STEM+CS activities. The goal of this paper is to articulate how interdisciplinary instruction complicates epistemic knowledge and resources needed for teachers' instructional decision-making. Toward these ends, this paper builds upon existing models of teachers' instructional decision-making in individual STEM+CS disciplines to highlight specific challenges and opportunities of interdisciplinary approaches on classroom epistemic supports. First, we offer considerations as to how teachers can provide epistemic support for students to engage in disciplinary practices across mathematics, science, engineering, and computer science. We then support these considerations using examples from our studies in elementary classrooms using integrated STEM+CS curriculum materials. We focus on an elementary school context, as elementary teachers necessarily integrate disciplines as part of their teaching practice when enacting NGSS-aligned curricula. Further, we argue that as STEM+CS interdisciplinary curricula in the form of NGSS-aligned, project-based units become more prevalent in elementary settings, careful attention and support needs to be given to help teachers not only engage their students in disciplinary practices across STEM+CS disciplines, but also to understand why and how these disciplinary practices should be used. Implications include recommendations for the design of professional learning experiences and curriculum materials.

Longitudinal Study on the Major Factors Affecting Divorce Choices among Women: Focused on Survival Analysis (여성의 이혼선택 요인에 관한 종단 연구: 생존분석을 중심으로)

  • Park, Su Sun;Park, Tai Young
    • Journal of Family Resource Management and Policy Review
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    • v.26 no.3
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    • pp.65-85
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    • 2022
  • This study aims to contribute to social work practice in understanding marriage and divorce as transitions and in helping women make meaningful decisions on whether to stay or leave the marriage by examining the factors that impact women's divorce decision making over time. This is a longitudinal study that used survival analysis by Korean Longitudinal Survey of Women and Families' panel data. Finally, cox regression analysis was used to evaluate the impact of each factor on divorce decision making, and accordingly, all regression models were appropriate for analysis.

A Study on the Use of Machine Learning Models in Bridge on Slab Thickness Prediction (머신러닝 기법을 활용한 교량데이터 설계 시 슬래브두께 예측에 관한 연구)

  • Chul-Seung Hong;Hyo-Kwan Kim;Se-Hee Lee
    • The Journal of Korea Institute of Information, Electronics, and Communication Technology
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    • v.16 no.5
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    • pp.325-330
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    • 2023
  • This paper proposes to apply machine learning to the process of predicting the slab thickness based on the structural analysis results or experience and subjectivity of engineers in the design of bridge data construction to enable digital-based decision-making. This study aims to build a reliable design environment by utilizing machine learning techniques to provide guide values to engineers in addition to structural analysis for slab thickness selection. Based on girder bridges, which account for the largest proportion of bridge data, a prediction model process for predicting slab thickness among superstructures was defined. Various machine learning models (Linear Regress, Decision Tree, Random Forest, and Muliti-layer Perceptron) were competed for each process to produce the prediction value for each process, and the optimal model was derived. Through this study, the applicability of machine learning techniques was confirmed in areas where slab thickness was predicted only through existing structural analysis, and an accuracy of 95.4% was also obtained. models can be utilized in a more reliable construction environment if the accuracy of the prediction model is improved by expanding the process

A Study on the Grasp of Major Attributes of Products through the research of Consumer Decision Procedure (소비자 의사결정과정을 통한 중요제품속성 파악에 관한 연구)

  • 이현이;김명석
    • Archives of design research
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    • v.20
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    • pp.147-158
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    • 1997
  • Industrial design aiming the mutual benefit of both user and manufacturer demands grasping and analyzing the needs and wants of consumer for the establishment of the optimum plan and production by attribute oriented approach. Inspite of its usefulness, however, it might be impossible to help industrial designers to develop a new product effectively without full understanding of industrial design activity in attributes of products and using the appropriate methodology for grasping the major attributes. This thesis is purposed for developing the guideline of research models of consumer for industrial by studying characteristics of industrial design activity in attributes of products through bibliography and defining the clear limit of design research focused on consumer selection through comparison with real purchase decision making procedure at every phase. Through the observation and analysis of the real purchase decision making procedure following the proposed guideline, the possibility of difference between the two cases has been shown in both theoretical and practical aspects.

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An Analysis on the Classification and the Real Status of e-Business Model in Korea (국내의 e-Business 모델 분류 및 실태 분석)

  • 허영호;주희엽;권혁인
    • Journal of Information Technology Applications and Management
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    • v.10 no.1
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    • pp.1-17
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    • 2003
  • As the increase of internal users, there are many enterprises and organizations that regard the internal as the great ■marketing superhighway■. But the entrance of too many e-Business enterprises and shopping sites makes them to compete each other Consequently many sites are created and disappeared in the cyberspace. Although fascination and speculation surrounds the impact of the e-Business on business models via benefit-based concept, there is little evidence underlying all this speculation. This article provides on such data set. It reports on critical Issues that e-Business enterprises found salient as they browsed through e-Business model infrastructure on the world wide web, internet-based. We gathered domestic e-Business enterprise's kinds of business model during 2000∼2002 via KMAC's (Korea Management Association Consultants) K-WPI and K-WPC. We classified e-Business models as shopping mall, auction, community. value-chain, collaboration, information brokerage, advertising, Internet service, marketing that we had identified from the existing literature on business models. This study translated these models to the e-Business model context and explored their relative salience. The results suggest that e-Business manager need to think more about how they perform on the issues known to affect decision making for designing e-Business models. We offer advice for enhancing the effectiveness of business models.

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A GDSS for Obtaining Corporate Understanding : Improving the Synergy Effects through the Strategic Coordination of Conflicting Interdepartmental Goals (그룹 의사결정지원 시스템을 이용한 공동목표의식의 배양 : 부서간 이해차이의 전략적 조정을 통한 조직시너지 효과의 향상)

  • Jeon, Gi-Jeong
    • Asia pacific journal of information systems
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    • v.2 no.2
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    • pp.31-54
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    • 1992
  • Generating an action plan and obtaining commitment to achieve it is desired in organizations, but not always achieved. Whatever the reason, there is a room for an improved approach to decision making, so that people can arrive at a common understanding of a problem and commitment to action. Those are the purposes of a Decision Conferencing(DC). A DC, one example of single workstation-based GDSSs, is a two-day session attended by a group of people who attempt to resolve important issues of concern to their organization with the help of group facilitation techniques and decision analytic computer modelling. The interchange of differing perspectives on the issues is encouraged by the facilitator who attends to group processes but does not contribute to the content of discussions. Decision analysis provides a variety of structures for modelling the differing perspectives. Information and value judgements are incorporated in these models, whose results usually reveal new, higher-level perspectives on the issues. Information technology is needed to combine the part of the model and to facilitate on-the-spot replay of results. The experimental case study in this paper shows that how a DC can help a Korea's trading company to develop new, corporate level resource allocation strategies which are based on improved consensus among competing participants.

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INTEGRATED CONSTRUCTION PROJECT PLANNING USING 3D INFORMATION MODELS

  • Chang-Su Shim;Kwang-Myong Lee;Deok-Won Kim;Yoon-Bum Lee;Kyoung-Lae Park
    • International conference on construction engineering and project management
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    • 2009.05a
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    • pp.928-934
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    • 2009
  • Although the evolution and deployment of information technologies will undoubtedly play an important role in the current construction industry, many engineers are still unsure of the economic value of using these technologies. Especially for the planning of a construction project, a collaboration system to utilize the whole resources is a essential tool for the successful outcome. A detailed, authoritative, and readily accessible information model is needed to enable engineers to make cost-effective decisions among established and innovative plan alternatives. Most engineers rely on limited private experiences when they create solutions or design alternatives. Initial planning is crucial for the success of the construction project. Most construction projects are done through collaboration of engineers who have different specialized knowledge. Information technologies can dramatically enhance the performance of the collaboration. For the information delivery, we need a mediator between engineers. Object-based 3-D models are useful for the communication and decision assistance for the intelligent project design. In this paper, basic guidelines for the 3-D design according to different construction processes are suggested. Adequate interoperability of 3-D objects from any CAD system is essential for the collaboration. Basic architectures of geometry models and their information layer were established to enable interoperability for design checks, estimation and simulation. A typical international project for roadway was chosen for the pilot project. 3-D GIS model was created and bridge information models were created considering several requirements for planning and decision making of the project. From the pilot test, the integrated construction project planning using 3-D information models was discussed and several guidelines were suggested.

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