• Title/Summary/Keyword: Decision making support tool

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A Study of Political Use of Naval Power in Solving International Conflicts (설득이론을 통한 해군력의 정치적 사용에 관한 고찰)

  • Yang, Jung-Seung
    • Strategy21
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    • s.30
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    • pp.236-262
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    • 2012
  • Morgenthau claims that in international relations, there are the economic, political, and military powers that enable a nation to achieve its political and diplomatic goals. This paper explores the possibility of resolving international conflicts with naval power. First, the theoretical and historical perspective, naval power was used as a final resort to force a nation's political or diplomatic objective on an enemy nation when negotiations failed, and this was done through the physical and psychological destruction of the enemy by naval power. But as the use of military power has decreased because of the invention of the nuclear weapon, the existence of a large and capable navy deterrent has become one of the most useful military options among a nation's diplomatic measures. In other words, he focused on the political usefulness of naval power as a deterrent and coercive diplomatic tool for persuading other nations to acquiesce, rather than using naval power and actual military action as a final resort. The reason for this is that compared to army and air force, navy's flexibility, continuity, and the ability to deter are greater. The navy provides excellent accessibility through its wide mobility on the sea, and it has been shown through research that the navy possesses a political usefulness that facilitates the solution of conflicts through presence, naval intervention, and naval blockade. On the other hand, among the factors that could improve the influence of the navy are alliance relations, a reliable and powerful navy, carrots and sticks that it would have to deal with in the case of successful or unsuccessful negotiations, and support from international opinion. On this paper I introduce E.N.Luttwak's naval suasion theory. By the his theory, there are two mode of naval suasion. One is latent naval suasion the other is active suasion. Latent suasion there are deterrent mode and supportive mode. Active naval suasion there are coercive mode and supportive mode. Coercive mode has positive and negative. The limitations of naval suasion have been identified as follows. First, because the objective of the use of naval power is persuading enemy nations, the results are unpredictable. Second, the leaders of all countries possess limited understanding on the complexities of naval power and therefore lack understanding of the usefulness of naval power when choosing options. Third, in case of failure through naval suasion, prestige and reputation of a nation can be damaged. Finally, the following are additional possible research topic. First, a research on the decision making process of choosing naval power as a measure to resolve conflicts is needed. Lastly, research on the size of the navy and types of ships required for efficient naval suasion is needed. Today's world requires cooperative security regime so that middle class navy also requires political use of naval power in solving international conflicts. Therefore, additional research on this topic is needed.

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Development of a technology valuation method for buyers in technology transfer (기술이전을 위한 기술수요자 중심의 가치평가 방법론 개발)

  • Yun, DooSeob;Park, Inchae;Yoon, Byungun
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.17 no.11
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    • pp.155-167
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    • 2016
  • Technology valuation is necessary for determining the feasibility of technology commercialization. However, existing methods focus only on technology evaluation, with limitation in sufficiently reflecting buyer viewpoint. In addition, it causes a gap between estimated value and market value. Therefore, this research suggests a new technology valuation method which focuses on the perspectives of buyers. Technology factors, buyer factors and market factors are first determined and their relationships are analyzed. Second, based on the relationships, profit projections are calculated using the discount cash flow method. Finally, profit projections for each year are discounted. The proposed method was applied using the ubiquitous home network system and audio service and illumination control method and results compared with the value of a technology valuation guide distributed by the Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy. The technology valuation approach used in this research is quantitative and systematic and can be used as a decision making support tool in technology transfer, reflecting various perspectives of stakeholders.

The Current State and Tasks of Citizen Science in Korea (한국 시민과학의 현황과 과제)

  • Park, Jin Hee
    • Journal of Science and Technology Studies
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    • v.18 no.2
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    • pp.7-41
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    • 2018
  • The projects of citizen science which is originated from citizen data collecting action driven by governmental institutes and science associations have been implemented with different form of collaboration with scientists. The themes of citizen science has extended from the ecology to astronomy, distributed computing, and particle physics. Citizen science could contribute to the advancement of science through cost-effective science research based on citizen volunteer data collecting. In addition, citizen science enhance the public understanding of science by increasing knowledge of citizen participants. The community-led citizen science projects could raise public awareness of environmental problems and promote the participation in environmental problem-solving. Citizen science projects based on local tacit knowledge can be of benefit to the local environmental policy decision making and implementation of policy. These social values of citizen science make many countries develop promoting policies of citizen science. The korean government also has introduced some citizen science projects. However there are some obstacles, such as low participation of citizen and scientists in projects which the government has to overcome in order to promote citizen science. It is important that scientists could recognize values of citizen science through the successful government driven citizen science projects and the evaluation tool of scientific career could be modified in order to promote scientist's participation. The project management should be well planned to intensify citizen participation. The government should prepare open data policy which could support a data reliability of the community-led monitoring projects. It is also desirable that a citizen science network could be made with the purpose of sharing best practices of citizen science.

Analysis of biodiversity change trend on urban development project - Focusing on terrestrial species in Environmental Impact Assessment - (도시의 개발 사업에 따른 생물다양성 변화 추세 분석 - 환경영향평가의 육상 동물종을 중심으로 -)

  • Kim, Eun-Sub;Lee, Dong-Kun;Jeon, Yoon-Ho;Choi, Ji-Young;Kim, Shin-Woo;Hwang, Hye-Mi;Kim, Da-Seul;Moon, Hyun-Bin;Bae, Ji-Ho
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Environmental Restoration Technology
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    • v.26 no.6
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    • pp.21-32
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    • 2023
  • The Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) plays a pivotal role in predicting the potential environmental impacts of proposed developments and planning appropriate mitigation measures to minimize effects on species. However, as concerns over biodiversity loss rise, there's ongoing debate about the efficacy of these mitigation plans. In this study, we utilized data from EIAs and post-environmental impact surveys to understand the trends in biodiversity during construction and operation phases. By examining 30 urban development projects, we categorized species richness indices of mammals, birds, amphibians, and reptiles into pre-construction, during construction, and post-construction operational stages. The biodiversity trends were analyzed based on the rate of change in these indices. The results revealed three distinct biodiversity change patterns: (A) An initial increase in biodiversity indices post-development, followed by a gradual decline over time; (B) a sustained increase in biodiversity as a result of mitigation measures; and (C) a continuous decline in biodiversity post-development. Furthermore, all species exhibited a higher rate of biodiversity decline during the construction phase compared to the operational phase, with mammals showing the most significant rate of change. Notably, the biodiversity change rate during operation was generally lower than during construction. In particular, mammals seemed to be most influenced by mitigation measures, displaying the smallest rate of change. This study provides empirical evidence on the efficacy of mitigation measures and deliberates on ways to enhance their effectiveness in minimizing the adverse impacts of urban development on biodiversity. These findings can serve as foundational data for addressing terrestrial biodiversity reduction.

Analysis of Microclimate Impact According to Development Scenarios of Vacant Land in Downtown Seoul - A Comparison of Wind Speed and Air Temperature - (서울 도심 공지의 개발 시나리오에 따른 미기후 영향 분석 - 풍속 및 기온 비교 -)

  • Baek, Jiwon;Park, Chan;Park, Somin;Choi, Jaeyeon;Song, Wonkyong;Kang, Dain;Kim, Suryeon
    • Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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    • v.30 no.2
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    • pp.105-116
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    • 2021
  • In the city of high population density crowded with buildings, Urban Heat Island (UHI) is intensified, and the city is vulnerable to thermal comfort. The maintenance of vacant land in downtown is treated as a factor that undermines the residential environment, spoils the urban landscape, and decreases the economic vitality of the whole region. Therefore, this study compared the effects on microclimate in the surrounding area according to the development scenarios targeting the vacant land in Songhyeon-dong, Jongno-gu, Seoul. The status quo, green oriented, building oriented and green-building mediation scenarios were established and ENVI-met was used to compare and analyze the impact of changes in wind speed, air temperature and mean radiant temperature (MRT) within 1 km of the target and the target site. The result of inside and 1 km radius the targeted area showed that the seasonal average temperature decreased and the wind speed increased when the green oriented scenario was compared with the current state one. It was expected that the temperature lowered to -0.73 ℃ or increased to 1.5 ℃ in summer, and the wind speed was affected up to 210 meters depending on the scenario. And it was revealed that green area inside the site generally affects inside area, but the layout and size of the buildings affect either internal and external area. This study is expected to help as a decision-making support tool for developing Songhyeon-dong area and to be used to reflect the part related to microclimate on the future environmental effects evaluation system.

Understanding the Relationship between Value Co-Creation Mechanism and Firm's Performance based on the Service-Dominant Logic (서비스지배논리하에서 가치공동창출 매커니즘과 기업성과간의 관계에 대한 연구)

  • Nam, Ki-Chan;Kim, Yong-Jin;Yim, Myung-Seong;Lee, Nam-Hee;Jo, Ah-Rha
    • Asia pacific journal of information systems
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    • v.19 no.4
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    • pp.177-200
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    • 2009
  • AIn the advanced - economy, the services industry hasbecome a dominant sector. Evidently, the services sector has grown at a much faster rate than any other. For instance, in such developed countries as the U.S., the proportion of the services sector in its GDP is greater than 75%. Even in the developing countries including India and China, the magnitude of the services sector in their GDPs is rapidly growing. The increasing dependence on service gives rise to new initiatives including service science and service-dominant logic. These new initiatives propose a new theoretical prism to promote the better understanding of the changing economic structure. From the new perspectives, service is no longer regarded as a transaction or exchange, but rather co-creation of value through the interaction among service users, providers, and other stakeholders including partners, external environments, and customer communities. The purpose of this study is the following. First, we review previous literature on service, service innovation, and service systems and integrate the studies based on service dominant logic. Second, we categorize the ten propositions of service dominant logic into conceptual propositions and the ones that are directly related to service provision. Conceptual propositions are left out to form the research model. With the selected propositions, we define the research constructs for this study. Third, we develop measurement items for the new service concepts including service provider network, customer network, value co-creation, and convergence of service with product. We then propose a research model to explain the relationship among the factors that affect the value creation mechanism. Finally, we empirically investigate the effects of the factors on firm performance. Through the process of this research study, we want to show the value creation mechanism of service systems in which various participants in service provision interact with related parties in a joint effort to create values. To test the proposed hypotheses, we developed measurement items and distributed survey questionnaires to domestic companies. 500 survey questionnaires were distributed and 180 were returned among which 171 were usable. The results of the empirical test can be summarized as the following. First, service providers' network which is to help offer required services to customers is found to affect customer network, while it does not have a significant effect on value co-creation and product-service convergence. Second, customer network, on the other hand, appears to influence both value co-creation and product-service convergence. Third, value co-creation accomplished through the collaboration of service providers and customers is found to have a significant effect on both product-service convergence and firm performance. Finally, product-service convergence appears to affect firm performance. To interpret the results from the value creation mechanism perspective, service provider network well established to support customer network is found to have significant effect on customer network which in turn facilitates value co-creation in service provision and product-service convergence to lead to greater firm performance. The results have some enlightening implications for practitioners. If companies want to transform themselves into service-centered business enterprises, they have to consider the four factors suggested in this study: service provider network, customer network, value co-creation, and product-service convergence. That is, companies becoming a service-oriented organization need to understand what the four factors are and how the factors interact with one another in their business context. They then may want to devise a better tool to analyze the value creation mechanism and apply the four factors to their own environment. This research study contributes to the literature in following ways. First, this study is one of the very first empirical studies on the service dominant logic as it has categorized the fundamental propositions into conceptual and empirically testable ones and tested the proposed hypotheses against the data collected through the survey method. Most of the propositions are found to work as Vargo and Lusch have suggested. Second, by providing a testable set of relationships among the research variables, this study may provide policy makers and decision makers with some theoretical grounds for their decision making on what to do with service innovation and management. Finally, this study incorporates the concepts of value co-creation through the interaction between customers and service providers into the proposed research model and empirically tests the validity of the concepts. The results of this study will help establish a value creation mechanism in the service-based economy, which can be used to develop and implement new service provision.

An Exploratory Study on the Components of Visual Merchandising of Internet Shopping Mall (인터넷쇼핑몰의 VMD 구성요인에 대한 탐색적 연구)

  • Kim, Kwang-Seok;Shin, Jong-Kuk;Koo, Dong-Mo
    • Journal of Global Scholars of Marketing Science
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    • v.18 no.2
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    • pp.19-45
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    • 2008
  • This study is to empirically examine the primary dimensions of visual merchandising (VMD) of internet shopping mall, namely store design, merchandise, and merchandising cues, to be a attractive virtual store to the shoppers. The authors reviewed the literature related to the major components of VMD from the perspective of the AIDA model, which has been mainly applied to the offline store settings. The major purposes of the study are as follows; first, tries to derive the variables related with the components of visual merchandising through reviewing the existing literatures, establish the hypotheses, and test it empirically. Second, examines the relationships between the components of VMD and the attitude toward the VMD, however, putting more emphasis on finding out the component structure of the VMD. VMD needs to be examined with the perspective that an online shopping mall is a virtual self-service or clerkless store, which could reduce the number of employees, help the shoppers search, evaluate and purchase for themselves, and to be explored in terms of the in-store persuasion processes of customers. This study reviewed the literatures related to store design, merchandise, and merchandising cues which might be relevant to the store, product, and promotion respectively. VMD is a total communication tool, and AIDA model could explain the in-store consumer behavior of online shopping. Store design has to do with triggering a consumer attention to the online mall, merchandise with a product related interest, and merchandising cues with promotions such as recommendation and links that induce the desire to pruchase. These three steps might be seen as the processes for purchase actions. The theoretical rationale for the relationship between VMD and AIDA could be found in Tyagi(2005) that the three steps of consumer-oriented merchandising are a store, a product assortment, and placement, in Omar(1999) that three types of interior display are a architectural design display, commodity display, and point-of-sales(POS) display, and in Davies and Ward(2005) that the retail store interior image is related to an atmosphere, merchandise, and in-store promotion. Lee et al(2000) suggested as the web merchandising components a merchandising cues, a shopping metaphor which is an assistant tool for search, a store design, a layout(web design), and a product assortment. The store design which includes differentiation, simplicity and navigation is supposed to be related to the attention to the virtual store. Second, the merchandise dimensions comprising product assortments, visual information and product reputation have to do with the interest in the product offerings. Finally, the merchandising cues that refer to merchandiser(MD)'s recommendation of products and providing the hyperlinks to relevant goods for the shopper is concerned with attempt to induce the desire to purchase. The questionnaire survey was carried out to collect the data about the consumers who would shop at internet shopping malls frequently. To select the subject malls, the mall ranking data announced by a mall rating agency was used to differentiate the most popular and least popular five mall each. The subjects was instructed to answer the questions after navigating the designated mall for five minutes. The 300 questionnaire was distributed to the consumers, 166 samples were used in the final analysis. The empirical testing focused on identifying and confirming the dimensionality of VMD and its subdimensions using a structural equation modeling method. The confirmatory factor analysis for the endogeneous and exogeneous variables was carried out in four parts. The second-order factor analysis was done for a store design, a merchandise, and a merchandising cues, and first-order confirmatory factor analysis for the attitude toward the VMD. The model test results shows that the chi-square value of structural equation is 144.39(d.f 49), significant at 0.01 level which means the proposed model was rejected. But, judging from the ratio of chi-square value vs. degree of freedom, the ratio was 2.94 which smaller than an acceptable level of 3.0, RMR is 0.087 which is higher than a generally acceptable level of 0.08. GFI and AGFI is turned out to be 0.90 and 0.84 respectively. Both NFI and NNFI is 0.94, and CFI 0.95. The major test results are as follows; first, the second-order factor analysis and structural equational modeling reveals that the differentiation, simplicity and ease of identifying current status of the transaction are confirmed to be subdimensions of store design and to be a significant predictors of the dependent variable. This result implies that when designing an online shopping mall, it is necessary to differentiate visually from other malls to improve the effectiveness of the communications of store design. That is, the differentiated store design raise the contrast stimulus to sensory organs to promote the memory of the store and to have a favorable attitude toward the VMD of a store. The results that navigation which means the easiness of identifying current status of shopping affects the attitude to VMD could be interpreted that the navigating processes via the hyperlinks which is characteristics of an internet shopping is a complex and cognitive process and shoppers are likely to lack the sense of overall structure of the store. Consequently, shoppers are likely to be alost amid shopping not knowing where to go. The orientation tool enhance the accessibility of information to raise the perceptive power about the store environment.(Titus & Everett 1995) Second, the primary dimension of merchandise and its subdimensions was confirmed to be unidimensional respectively, have a construct validity, and nomological validity which the VMD dimensions supposed to have a positive correlation with the dependent variable. The subdimensions of product assortment, brand fame and information provision proved to have a positive effect on the attitude toward the VMD. It could be interpreted that the more plentiful the product and brand assortment of the mall is, the more likely the shoppers to favor it. Brand fame and information provision as well affect the VMD attitude, which means that the more famous the brand, the more likely the shoppers would trust and feel familiar with the mall, and the plentifully and visually presented information could have the shopper have a favorable attitude toward the store VMD. Third, it turned out to be that merchandising cue of product recommendation and hyperlinks affect the VMD attitude. This could be interpreted that recommended products could reduce the uncertainty related with the purchase decision, and the hyperlinks to relevant products would help the shopper save the cognitive effort exerted into the information search and gathering, which could lead to a favorable attitude to the VMD. This study tried to sheds some new light on the VMD of online store by reviewing the variables mentioned to be relevant with offline VMD in the existing literatures, and tried to link the VMD components from the perspective of AIDA model. The effect size of the VMD dimensions on the attitude was in the order of the merchandise, the store design and the merchandising cues.It is said that an internet has an unlimited place for display, however, the virtual store is not unlimited since the consumer has a limited amount of cognitive ability to process the external information and internal memory. Particularly, the shoppers are likely to face some difficulties in decision making on account of too many alternative and information overloads. Therefore, the internet shopping mall manager should take into consideration the cost of information search on the part of the consumer, to establish the optimal product placements and search routes. An efficient store composition would be possible by reducing the psychological burdens and cognitive efforts exerted to information search and alternatives evaluation. The store image is in most part determined by the product category and its brand it deals in. The results of this study support this proposition that the merchandise is most important to the VMD attitude than other components, the manager is required to take a strategic approach to VMD. The internet users are getting more accustomed and more knowledgeable about the internet media and more likely to accept the internet as a shopping channel as the period of time during which they use the internet to shop become longer. The web merchandiser should be aware that the product introduction using a moving pictures and a bulletin board become more important in order to present the interactive product information visually and communicate with customers more actively, therefore leading to making the quantity and quality of product information more rich.

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Development of GIS based Water Quality Simulation System for Han River and Kyeonggi Bay Area (한강과 경기만 지역 GIS 기반 통합수질모의 시스템 개발)

  • Lee, Chol-Young;Kim, Kye-Hyun
    • Journal of Korea Spatial Information System Society
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    • v.10 no.4
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    • pp.77-88
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    • 2008
  • There has been growing demands to manage the water quality of west coastal region due to the large scale urbanization along the coastal zone, the possibility of application of TMDL(Total Maximum Daily Loadings) to Han river, and the natural disaster such as oil spill incident in Taean, Chungnam. However, no system has been developed for such purposes. In this background, the demand of GIS based effective water quality management has been increased to monitor water quality environment and propose best management alternatives for Han river and Kyeonggi bay. This study mainly focused on the development of integrated water quality management system for Han river bas in and its estuary are a connected to Kyeonggi bay to support integrated water quality management and its plan. Integration was made based on GIS by spatial linking between water quality attributes and location information. A GIS DB was built to estimate the amount of generated and discharged water pollutants according to TMDL technical guide and it included input data to use two different water quality models--W ASP7 for Han river and EFDC for coastal area--to forecast water quality and to suggest BMP(Best management Practices). The results of BOD, TN, and TP from WASP7 were used as the input to run EFDC. Based on the study results, some critical areas which have relatively higher pollutant loadings were identified, and it was also identified that the locations discharging water pollutant loadings to river and seasonal factor affected water quality. And the relationship of water quality between river and its estuary area was quantitatively verified. The results showed that GIS based integrated system could be used as a tool for estimating status-quo of water quality and proposing economically effective BMPs to mitigate water pollution. Further studies need to be made for improving system's capabilities such as adding decision making function as well as cost-benefit analysis, etc. Also, the concrete methodology for water quality management using the system need to be developed.

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Analysis of News Agenda Using Text mining and Semantic Network Analysis: Focused on COVID-19 Emotions (텍스트 마이닝과 의미 네트워크 분석을 활용한 뉴스 의제 분석: 코로나 19 관련 감정을 중심으로)

  • Yoo, So-yeon;Lim, Gyoo-gun
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.27 no.1
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    • pp.47-64
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    • 2021
  • The global spread of COVID-19 around the world has not only affected many parts of our daily life but also has a huge impact on many areas, including the economy and society. As the number of confirmed cases and deaths increases, medical staff and the public are said to be experiencing psychological problems such as anxiety, depression, and stress. The collective tragedy that accompanies the epidemic raises fear and anxiety, which is known to cause enormous disruptions to the behavior and psychological well-being of many. Long-term negative emotions can reduce people's immunity and destroy their physical balance, so it is essential to understand the psychological state of COVID-19. This study suggests a method of monitoring medial news reflecting current days which requires striving not only for physical but also for psychological quarantine in the prolonged COVID-19 situation. Moreover, it is presented how an easier method of analyzing social media networks applies to those cases. The aim of this study is to assist health policymakers in fast and complex decision-making processes. News plays a major role in setting the policy agenda. Among various major media, news headlines are considered important in the field of communication science as a summary of the core content that the media wants to convey to the audiences who read it. News data used in this study was easily collected using "Bigkinds" that is created by integrating big data technology. With the collected news data, keywords were classified through text mining, and the relationship between words was visualized through semantic network analysis between keywords. Using the KrKwic program, a Korean semantic network analysis tool, text mining was performed and the frequency of words was calculated to easily identify keywords. The frequency of words appearing in keywords of articles related to COVID-19 emotions was checked and visualized in word cloud 'China', 'anxiety', 'situation', 'mind', 'social', and 'health' appeared high in relation to the emotions of COVID-19. In addition, UCINET, a specialized social network analysis program, was used to analyze connection centrality and cluster analysis, and a method of visualizing a graph using Net Draw was performed. As a result of analyzing the connection centrality between each data, it was found that the most central keywords in the keyword-centric network were 'psychology', 'COVID-19', 'blue', and 'anxiety'. The network of frequency of co-occurrence among the keywords appearing in the headlines of the news was visualized as a graph. The thickness of the line on the graph is proportional to the frequency of co-occurrence, and if the frequency of two words appearing at the same time is high, it is indicated by a thick line. It can be seen that the 'COVID-blue' pair is displayed in the boldest, and the 'COVID-emotion' and 'COVID-anxiety' pairs are displayed with a relatively thick line. 'Blue' related to COVID-19 is a word that means depression, and it was confirmed that COVID-19 and depression are keywords that should be of interest now. The research methodology used in this study has the convenience of being able to quickly measure social phenomena and changes while reducing costs. In this study, by analyzing news headlines, we were able to identify people's feelings and perceptions on issues related to COVID-19 depression, and identify the main agendas to be analyzed by deriving important keywords. By presenting and visualizing the subject and important keywords related to the COVID-19 emotion at a time, medical policy managers will be able to be provided a variety of perspectives when identifying and researching the regarding phenomenon. It is expected that it can help to use it as basic data for support, treatment and service development for psychological quarantine issues related to COVID-19.

A Study on Searching for Export Candidate Countries of the Korean Food and Beverage Industry Using Node2vec Graph Embedding and Light GBM Link Prediction (Node2vec 그래프 임베딩과 Light GBM 링크 예측을 활용한 식음료 산업의 수출 후보국가 탐색 연구)

  • Lee, Jae-Seong;Jun, Seung-Pyo;Seo, Jinny
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.27 no.4
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    • pp.73-95
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    • 2021
  • This study uses Node2vec graph embedding method and Light GBM link prediction to explore undeveloped export candidate countries in Korea's food and beverage industry. Node2vec is the method that improves the limit of the structural equivalence representation of the network, which is known to be relatively weak compared to the existing link prediction method based on the number of common neighbors of the network. Therefore, the method is known to show excellent performance in both community detection and structural equivalence of the network. The vector value obtained by embedding the network in this way operates under the condition of a constant length from an arbitrarily designated starting point node. Therefore, it has the advantage that it is easy to apply the sequence of nodes as an input value to the model for downstream tasks such as Logistic Regression, Support Vector Machine, and Random Forest. Based on these features of the Node2vec graph embedding method, this study applied the above method to the international trade information of the Korean food and beverage industry. Through this, we intend to contribute to creating the effect of extensive margin diversification in Korea in the global value chain relationship of the industry. The optimal predictive model derived from the results of this study recorded a precision of 0.95 and a recall of 0.79, and an F1 score of 0.86, showing excellent performance. This performance was shown to be superior to that of the binary classifier based on Logistic Regression set as the baseline model. In the baseline model, a precision of 0.95 and a recall of 0.73 were recorded, and an F1 score of 0.83 was recorded. In addition, the light GBM-based optimal prediction model derived from this study showed superior performance than the link prediction model of previous studies, which is set as a benchmarking model in this study. The predictive model of the previous study recorded only a recall rate of 0.75, but the proposed model of this study showed better performance which recall rate is 0.79. The difference in the performance of the prediction results between benchmarking model and this study model is due to the model learning strategy. In this study, groups were classified by the trade value scale, and prediction models were trained differently for these groups. Specific methods are (1) a method of randomly masking and learning a model for all trades without setting specific conditions for trade value, (2) arbitrarily masking a part of the trades with an average trade value or higher and using the model method, and (3) a method of arbitrarily masking some of the trades with the top 25% or higher trade value and learning the model. As a result of the experiment, it was confirmed that the performance of the model trained by randomly masking some of the trades with the above-average trade value in this method was the best and appeared stably. It was found that most of the results of potential export candidates for Korea derived through the above model appeared appropriate through additional investigation. Combining the above, this study could suggest the practical utility of the link prediction method applying Node2vec and Light GBM. In addition, useful implications could be derived for weight update strategies that can perform better link prediction while training the model. On the other hand, this study also has policy utility because it is applied to trade transactions that have not been performed much in the research related to link prediction based on graph embedding. The results of this study support a rapid response to changes in the global value chain such as the recent US-China trade conflict or Japan's export regulations, and I think that it has sufficient usefulness as a tool for policy decision-making.