• 제목/요약/키워드: Decision -making Tree

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AI 참모 구축을 위한 의사결심조건의 데이터 모델링 방안 (A Methodology of Decision Making Condition-based Data Modeling for Constructing AI Staff)

  • 한창희;신규용;최성훈;문상우;이치훈;이종관
    • 인터넷정보학회논문지
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    • 제21권1호
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    • pp.237-246
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    • 2020
  • 본 논문에서는 의사결심 지원체계인 전장관리체계의 지능화를 위해 의사결심 조건에 기초한 데이터 모델링 방안을 제시하였다. 인간처럼 보고 식별도 하고, 자유롭게 움직임을 통해 원하는 위치에 도달하는 모습은 쉽게 이해되거나 실생활에서 체감하고 있는데 비해, 원하는 위치에 도달한 이후 인간 인지 행위 중 가장 중요한 하나인 의사 결심 판단을 구현했다거나 혹은 그러한 예제를 아직은 찾아 볼 수 없는 실정이다. 도착을 원했던 회의실에 인간을 대신해 에이전트가 오기는 했지만 판단을 도와주거나 대신 해주어야 할 임무인 예컨대, 가격 정책을 올릴 것인지 내릴 것인지, 지휘관이 심사숙고하고 있는 예컨대, 역습을 하는 것이 현명한지 아닌지에 대한 판단을 지원해 주지 못하고 있다. 군 지휘 통제의 현상과 현안을 고찰하였고, 각 상황에 대한 판단을 내릴 때 기계참모의 조언이 가능하게하기 위한 많은 양의 데이터 확보가 가능하도록, 현 지휘통제 체계를 변경시킬 방안으로 의사결심 조건에 기초한 데이터 모델링 방안을 제시하였다. 또한 제시한 방안에 대해 기계가 하는 의사결정의 한 예시로써 의사결정 트리 방법론을 적용하였다. 이를 통해 향후 AI 상황 판단 참모가 어떠한 모습으로 우리에게 다가올지에 대한 혜안을 제공하고자 하였다.

의사결정나무분석을 이용한 청소년 우울의 보호요인 예측모형 (Predictors of Protective Factors for Depression in Adolescent using Decision Making Tree Analysis)

  • 김보영
    • 한국콘텐츠학회논문지
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    • 제15권5호
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    • pp.375-385
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    • 2015
  • 본 연구는 의사결정나무 분석을 활용하여 청소년의 우울 보호요인을 예측하여 우울 예방과 조기발견 및 중재 방안을 마련하고자 시도된 서술적 조사연구이다. 연구대상은 G광역시에 소재한 청소년 총 485명이고, 자료 수집은 2013년 9월 23일부터 9월 26일 사이에 이루어졌다. 자료 분석은 SPSS 20.0 프로그램을 이용하여 빈도, 백분율, 평균과 표준편차 및 ${\chi}^2$-test, t-test, 의사결정나무 분석으로 분석하였다. 본 연구 결과, 4개의 경로, 총 12노드가 구축되었고 가족 결속력, 부모 자녀간 의사소통과 또래와의 의사소통이 청소년 우울 보호요인이었다. 우울의 보호요인 예측 정확도에서 분석용은 특이도 76.0%, 민감도 65.4%이었고, 검정용은 특이도 78.2%, 민감도 63.7%이었으며, 전체 분류 정확도는 분석용 70.1%, 검정용 69.7%이었다. 이에 본 연구 결과가 학교와 지역사회에서 청소년 정신보건을 담당하는 전문가들에게 우울을 예방을 위한 프로그램 개발의 기초자료로 제공되고, 나아가 청소년들이 자신들의 목소리를 되찾고 힘차게 성장하기 위한 보호요인 강화를 위한 우울예방 정책 전략에 활용되기를 기대해 본다.

Using Predictive Analytics to Profile Potential Adopters of Autonomous Vehicles

  • Lee, Eun-Ju;Zafarzon, Nordirov;Zhang, Jing
    • Asia Marketing Journal
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    • 제20권2호
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    • pp.65-83
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    • 2018
  • Technological advances are bringing autonomous vehicles to the ever-evolving transportation system. Anticipating adoption of these technologies by users is essential to vehicle manufacturers for making more precise production and marketing strategies. The research investigates regulatory focus and consumer innovativeness with consumers' adoption of autonomous vehicles (AVs) and to consumers' subsequent willingness to pay for AVs. An online questionnaire was fielded to confirm predictions, and regression analysis was conducted to verify the model's validity. The results show that a promotion focus does not have a significantly positive effect on the automation level at which consumers will adopt AVs, but a prevention focus has a significantly positive effect on conditional AV adoption. Consumer innovativeness, consumers' novelty-seeking have a significantly positive relationship with high and full AV adoption, and consumers' independent decision-making has a significantly positive effect on full AV adoption. The higher the level of automation at which a consumer adopts AVs, the higher the willingness to pay for them. Finally, using a neural network and decision tree analyses, we show methods with which to describe three categories for potential adopters of AVs.

머신러닝 기법을 활용한 대졸 구직자 취업 예측모델에 관한 연구 (Study on the Prediction Model for Employment of University Graduates Using Machine Learning Classification)

  • 이동훈;김태형
    • 한국정보시스템학회지:정보시스템연구
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    • 제29권2호
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    • pp.287-306
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    • 2020
  • Purpose Youth unemployment is a social problem that continues to emerge in Korea. In this study, we create a model that predicts the employment of college graduates using decision tree, random forest and artificial neural network among machine learning techniques and compare the performance between each model through prediction results. Design/methodology/approach In this study, the data processing was performed, including the acquisition of the college graduates' vocational path survey data first, then the selection of independent variables and setting up dependent variables. We use R to create decision tree, random forest, and artificial neural network models and predicted whether college graduates were employed through each model. And at the end, the performance of each model was compared and evaluated. Findings The results showed that the random forest model had the highest performance, and the artificial neural network model had a narrow difference in performance than the decision tree model. In the decision-making tree model, key nodes were selected as to whether they receive economic support from their families, major affiliates, the route of obtaining information for jobs at universities, the importance of working income when choosing jobs and the location of graduation universities. Identifying the importance of variables in the random forest model, whether they receive economic support from their families as important variables, majors, the route to obtaining job information, the degree of irritating feelings for a month, and the location of the graduating university were selected.

CART를 이용한 Tree Model의 성능평가 (Using CART to Evaluate Performance of Tree Model)

  • 정용규;권나연;이영호
    • 서비스연구
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    • 제3권1호
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    • pp.9-16
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    • 2013
  • 데이터 분석가에게 많은 노력이 요구되지 않으면서 사용자가 쉽게 분석결과를 이해할 수 있는 범용 분류기법으로서 가장 대표적인 것은 Breiman이 개발한 의사결정나무를 들 수 있다. 의사결정나무에서 기본이 되는 2가지 핵심내용은 독립변수의 차원 공간을 반복적으로 분할하는 것과 평가용 데이터를 사용하여 가지치기를 하는 것이다. 분류문제에서 반응변수는 범주형 변수여야 한다. 반복적 분할은 변수 의 차원 공간을 겹치지 않는 다차원 직사각형으로 나눈다. 여기서 변수는 연속형, 이진 혹은 서열의 척도이다. 본 논문에서는 새로운 사례를 분류함에 있어서 분류의 성능을 평가하기 위해 분류나무의 정확도 정밀도 재현률 등을 실험하고자 한다.

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A Comparative Study of Phishing Websites Classification Based on Classifier Ensemble

  • Tama, Bayu Adhi;Rhee, Kyung-Hyune
    • 한국멀티미디어학회논문지
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    • 제21권5호
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    • pp.617-625
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    • 2018
  • Phishing website has become a crucial concern in cyber security applications. It is performed by fraudulently deceiving users with the aim of obtaining their sensitive information such as bank account information, credit card, username, and password. The threat has led to huge losses to online retailers, e-business platform, financial institutions, and to name but a few. One way to build anti-phishing detection mechanism is to construct classification algorithm based on machine learning techniques. The objective of this paper is to compare different classifier ensemble approaches, i.e. random forest, rotation forest, gradient boosted machine, and extreme gradient boosting against single classifiers, i.e. decision tree, classification and regression tree, and credal decision tree in the case of website phishing. Area under ROC curve (AUC) is employed as a performance metric, whilst statistical tests are used as baseline indicator of significance evaluation among classifiers. The paper contributes the existing literature on making a benchmark of classifier ensembles for web phishing detection.

신경망 분류기와 선형트리 분류기에 의한 영상인식의 비교연구 (A Comparative Study of Image Recognition by Neural Network Classifier and Linear Tree Classifier)

  • Young Tae Park
    • 전자공학회논문지B
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    • 제31B권5호
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    • pp.141-148
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    • 1994
  • Both the neural network classifier utilizing multi-layer perceptron and the linear tree classifier composed of hierarchically structured linear discriminating functions can form arbitrarily complex decision boundaries in the feature space and have very similar decision making processes. In this paper, a new method for automatically choosing the number of neurons in the hidden layers and for initalzing the connection weights between the layres and its supporting theory are presented by mapping the sequential structure of the linear tree classifier to the parallel structure of the neural networks having one or two hidden layers. Experimental results on the real data obtained from the military ship images show that this method is effective, and that three exists no siginificant difference in the classification acuracy of both classifiers.

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A Comparative Study of Phishing Websites Classification Based on Classifier Ensembles

  • Tama, Bayu Adhi;Rhee, Kyung-Hyune
    • Journal of Multimedia Information System
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    • 제5권2호
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    • pp.99-104
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    • 2018
  • Phishing website has become a crucial concern in cyber security applications. It is performed by fraudulently deceiving users with the aim of obtaining their sensitive information such as bank account information, credit card, username, and password. The threat has led to huge losses to online retailers, e-business platform, financial institutions, and to name but a few. One way to build anti-phishing detection mechanism is to construct classification algorithm based on machine learning techniques. The objective of this paper is to compare different classifier ensemble approaches, i.e. random forest, rotation forest, gradient boosted machine, and extreme gradient boosting against single classifiers, i.e. decision tree, classification and regression tree, and credal decision tree in the case of website phishing. Area under ROC curve (AUC) is employed as a performance metric, whilst statistical tests are used as baseline indicator of significance evaluation among classifiers. The paper contributes the existing literature on making a benchmark of classifier ensembles for web phishing detection.

Predicting Stock Liquidity by Using Ensemble Data Mining Methods

  • Bae, Eun Chan;Lee, Kun Chang
    • 한국컴퓨터정보학회논문지
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    • 제21권6호
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    • pp.9-19
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    • 2016
  • In finance literature, stock liquidity showing how stocks can be cashed out in the market has received rich attentions from both academicians and practitioners. The reasons are plenty. First, it is known that stock liquidity affects significantly asset pricing. Second, macroeconomic announcements influence liquidity in the stock market. Therefore, stock liquidity itself affects investors' decision and managers' decision as well. Though there exist a great deal of literature about stock liquidity in finance literature, it is quite clear that there are no studies attempting to investigate the stock liquidity issue as one of decision making problems. In finance literature, most of stock liquidity studies had dealt with limited views such as how much it influences stock price, which variables are associated with describing the stock liquidity significantly, etc. However, this paper posits that stock liquidity issue may become a serious decision-making problem, and then be handled by using data mining techniques to estimate its future extent with statistical validity. In this sense, we collected financial data set from a number of manufacturing companies listed in KRX (Korea Exchange) during the period of 2010 to 2013. The reason why we selected dataset from 2010 was to avoid the after-shocks of financial crisis that occurred in 2008. We used Fn-GuidPro system to gather total 5,700 financial data set. Stock liquidity measure was computed by the procedures proposed by Amihud (2002) which is known to show best metrics for showing relationship with daily return. We applied five data mining techniques (or classifiers) such as Bayesian network, support vector machine (SVM), decision tree, neural network, and ensemble method. Bayesian networks include GBN (General Bayesian Network), NBN (Naive BN), TAN (Tree Augmented NBN). Decision tree uses CART and C4.5. Regression result was used as a benchmarking performance. Ensemble method uses two types-integration of two classifiers, and three classifiers. Ensemble method is based on voting for the sake of integrating classifiers. Among the single classifiers, CART showed best performance with 48.2%, compared with 37.18% by regression. Among the ensemble methods, the result from integrating TAN, CART, and SVM was best with 49.25%. Through the additional analysis in individual industries, those relatively stabilized industries like electronic appliances, wholesale & retailing, woods, leather-bags-shoes showed better performance over 50%.

기계학습을 적용한 자기보고 증상 기반의 어혈 변증 모델 구축 (Machine Learning Approach to Blood Stasis Pattern Identification Based on Self-reported Symptoms)

  • 김현호;양승범;강연석;박영배;김재효
    • Korean Journal of Acupuncture
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    • 제33권3호
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    • pp.102-113
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    • 2016
  • Objectives : This study is aimed at developing and discussing the prediction model of blood stasis pattern of traditional Korean medicine(TKM) using machine learning algorithms: multiple logistic regression and decision tree model. Methods : First, we reviewed the blood stasis(BS) questionnaires of Korean, Chinese, and Japanese version to make a integrated BS questionnaire of patient-reported outcomes. Through a human subject research, patients-reported BS symptoms data were acquired. Next, experts decisions of 5 Korean medicine doctor were also acquired, and supervised learning models were developed using multiple logistic regression and decision tree. Results : Integrated BS questionnaire with 24 items was developed. Multiple logistic regression models with accuracy of 0.92(male) and 0.95(female) validated by 10-folds cross-validation were constructed. By decision tree modeling methods, male model with 8 decision node and female model with 6 decision node were made. In the both models, symptoms of 'recent physical trauma', 'chest pain', 'numbness', and 'menstrual disorder(female only)' were considered as important factors. Conclusions : Because machine learning, especially supervised learning, can reveal and suggest important or essential factors among the very various symptoms making up a pattern identification, it can be a very useful tool in researching diagnostics of TKM. With a proper patient-reported outcomes or well-structured database, it can also be applied to a pre-screening solutions of healthcare system in Mibyoung stage.