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Compressed Demographic Transition and Economic Growth in the Latecomer

  • Inyong Shin;Hyunho Kim
    • Analyses & Alternatives
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    • v.7 no.2
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    • pp.35-77
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    • 2023
  • This study aims to solve the entangled loop between demographic transition (DT) and economic growth by analyzing cross-country data. We undertake a national-level group analysis to verify the compressed transition of demographic variables over time. Assuming that the LA (latecomer advantage) on DT over time exists, we verify that the DT of the latecomer is compressed by providing a formal proof of LA on DT over income. As a DT has the double-kinked functions of income, we check them in multiple aspects: early maturation, leftward threshold, and steeper descent under a contour map and econometric methods. We find that the developing countries (the latecomer) have speedy DT (CDT, compressed DT) as well as speedy income such that DT of the latecomers starts at lower levels of income, lasts for a shorter period, and finishes at the earlier stage of economic development compared to that of developed countries (the early mover). To check the balance of DT, we classify countries into four groups of DT---balanced, slow, unilateral, and rapid transition countries. We identify that the main causes of rapid transition are due to the strong family planning programs of the government. Finally, we check the effect of latecomer's CDT on economic growth inversely: we undertake the simulation of the CDT effect on economic growth and the aging process for the latecomer. A worrying result is that the CDT of the latecomer shows a sharp upturn of the working-age population, followed by a sharp downturn in a short period. Compared to early-mover countries, the latecomer countries cannot buy more time to accommodate the workable population for the period of demographic bonus and prepare their aging societies for demographic onus. Thus, we conclude that CDT is not necessarily advantageous to developing countries. These outcomes of the latecomer's CDT can be re-interpreted as follows. Developing countries need power sources to pump up economic development, such as the following production factors: labor, physical and financial capital, and economic systems. As for labor, the properties of early maturation and leftward thresholds on DTs of the latecomer mean that demographic movement occurs at an unusually early stage of economic development; this is similar to a plane that leaks fuel before or just before take-off, with the result that it no longer flies higher or farther. What is worse, the property of steeper descent represents the falling speed of a plane so that it cannot be sustained at higher levels, and then plummets to all-time lows.

Poverty Alleviation Effect for the Old Aged of Public Pension in Advanced Capitalist Countries : a Difference in Difference Approach (선진자본주의국가 공적연금의 노인 빈곤완화효과 : 이중차분접근)

  • Ji, Eun Jeong
    • Korean Journal of Social Welfare Studies
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    • v.42 no.4
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    • pp.263-293
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    • 2011
  • There have been many studies on the relationship between welfare states and the poverty. Yet, only a few studies have been addressed the poverty alleviation effect of public pension using difference in difference(DID). This study aims to analyze poverty alleviation effect for the old aged of public pension in 10 OECD countries using DID considering welfare states regimes. The empirical analyses are based on panel data of individuals aged 50 and over from two sources: SHARE in Europe(wave I~II) and HRS in USA(2004~2006). As a result of simple DID, this study provides evidence that the poverty rate of the old aged who has not been received the pension is increased, while the poverty rate of pensioner is sharply decreased. The anti-poverty effect of public pension using DID is 45.6% which is bigger than that of pre/post approach. The policy impact used by pre/post approach in conservative welfare regime is underestimated while those in liberal and socialist regime are overestimated. In last, GDP growth rate has not significant while public pension contributes to poverty alleviation effects of the old aged. Poverty alleviation effects of public pension are also varied with welfare state regimes. The poverty alleviation effects of public pension in conservative welfare and social democratic welfare state regime are significantly bigger than that in liberal welfare state regime.

Economic Feasibility of Using Forest Biomass as a Local Energy Source (산림바이오매스의 지역 에너지 이용의 경제성 분석)

  • Min, Kyungtaek;An, Hyunjin;Byun, Seungyeon
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.111 no.1
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    • pp.177-185
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    • 2022
  • In this study, the economic feasibility of a local energy facility that uses forest biomass as an energy source was assessed. We analyzed profitability using data from the Forest Energy Self-sufficient Village Project financed by the Korea Forest Service. The energy facility has a cogeneration generator and wood chip boiler. Wood chip, which has lower heat value and is cheaper than wood pellets, is used as fuel. Revenue comes from the sale of electricity, heat, and renewable energy certificates. Additionally, we considered the sale of carbon credits as substitutes for fossil fuels. The expenditure consists of fuel costs and fixed costs, and the initial investment is treated as a sunk cost. Under the condition of a 55% operation rate and wood chip price of 95,000 KRW per ton, the annual net revenue is positive. Crucial factors for managing the facility sustainably are operation rate and fuel cost. A simulation in which two factors were changed showed that the annual net revenue is negative with a 50% operation rate and 100,000 KRW per ton of wood chip price. To improve net revenue, an increase in the operation rate or a decrease in the wood chip price is required. Additionally, selling carbon credits will make the operation of the facility more profitable. Furthermore, the payment required to procure wood chips could contribute to the rural economy. To foster the use of forest biomass for energy, the price for heat supplied from renewable energy sources should be subsidized.

How sensation seeking affects burnout: A moderated mediation model of Type A driving behavior and meaning of work (직업운전자의 자극추구성향이 직무소진에 미치는 영향: A형 운전행동 패턴과 일의 의미의 조절된 매개효과)

  • Yonguk Park;Eun-Kyoung Chung;Hyunjin Koo;Young Woo Sohn
    • Korean Journal of Culture and Social Issue
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    • v.22 no.1
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    • pp.19-39
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    • 2016
  • Though research has shown that public transportation drivers experience greater burnout than other drivers, the sources of their burnout and possible mediators remain largely unknown. In response, in this study we investigate the relationships among sensation seeking, Type A driving behavior, and meaning of work to elucidate the burnout experienced by bus drivers in Gyeonggi-do, South Korea. To collect data regarding these relationships, 188 bus drivers answered a questionnaire involving the sensation seeking scale, burnout scale, and meaning of work scale. Results showed that Type A driving behavior mediated the relationship between sensation seeking and burnout, while meaning of work moderated the mediated model. These findings demonstrate that sensation-seeking bus drivers tend to experience greater burnout given their tendency to exhibit Type A driving behavior, and this relationship depends on perceived meaning of work. This study therefore contributes meaningful information and outlines significant implications in understanding drivers' burnout.

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The Runoff Characteristics of Non-point Pollution Sources in Industrial Complex(II): Focusing on the Outflow Characteristics of the C Industrial Complex by Rainfall Event (산업단지 비점오염원의 유출특성(II): C산업단지의 강우사상별 유출특성을 중심으로)

  • Woo, Jae-Suk;Shin, Hyun-Gon
    • Journal of the Korea Organic Resources Recycling Association
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    • v.30 no.1
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    • pp.41-47
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    • 2022
  • In this study, rainfall water outlet water quality monitoring was performed on the C industrial complex to evaluate the characteristics of non-point pollutant runoff from the industrial complex during rainfall and to use it as basic data for calculating the load and unit of non-point pollutant. As a result of calculating EMC according to the outflow amount by rainfall event, the 1st rainfall showed EMCs ranges of BOD, CODMn, SS, T-N, and T-P of 1.32~48.76, 3.32~43.75, 2.89~199.43, 2.76~8.93, 0.08~068, and the 2nd rainfall was 0.5~2.9, 2.71~7.13, 2.82~174.94, 1.33~4.03, 0.01~1.28 mg/L, respectively. As a result of calculating the ratio of cumulative outflow and cumulative pollution load, most of the pollution load was less than the rainfall outflow, but over time, the initial washing phenomenon occurred as the ratio of cumulative rainfall outflow and cumulative pollution load increased to more than 1.

Sensitivity Analysis of Wake Diffusion Patterns in Mountainous Wind Farms according to Wake Model Characteristics on Computational Fluid Dynamics (전산유체역학 후류모델 특성에 따른 산악지형 풍력발전단지 후류확산 형태 민감도 분석)

  • Kim, Seong-Gyun;Ryu, Geon Hwa;Kim, Young-Gon;Moon, Chae-Joo
    • The Journal of the Korea institute of electronic communication sciences
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    • v.17 no.2
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    • pp.265-278
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    • 2022
  • The global energy paradigm is rapidly changing by centering on carbon neutrality, and wind energy is positioning itself as a leader in renewable energy-based power sources. The success of onshore and offshore wind energy projects focuses on securing the economic feasibility of the project, which depends on securing high-quality wind resources and optimal arrangement of wind turbines. In the process of constructing the wind farm, the optimal arrangement method of wind turbines considering the main wind direction is important, and this is related to minimizing the wake effect caused by the fluid passing through the structure located on the windward side. The accuracy of the predictability of the wake effect is determined by the wake model and modeling technique that can properly simulate it. Therefore, in this paper, using WindSim, a commercial CFD model, the wake diffusion pattern is analyzed through the sensitivity study of each wake model of the proposed onshore wind farm located in the mountainous complex terrain in South Korea, and it is intended to be used as basic research data for wind energy projects in complex terrain in the future.

Dietary sodium and potassium intake of Koreans estimated using 2 different sources of their contents in foods, Food & Nutrient Database and the Korean Total Diet Study : a comparative study (우리 국민의 나트륨 및 칼륨 섭취량 평가: 식품별 영양성분 함량 DB와 한국형 총 식이조사 기반 추정량 비교 연구)

  • Jee Yeon Lee;Sung Ok Kwon;Soo Hyun Lee;Min Jeong Seo;Gae Ho Lee;Cho-il Kim
    • Korean Journal of Community Nutrition
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    • v.28 no.3
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    • pp.235-244
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    • 2023
  • Objectives: Based on the results from the Korean Total Diet Study (KTDS), the sodium (Na) and potassium (K) intake of Koreans were estimated and compared with intake estimates from the Food & Nutrient Database (FNDB), as in the Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (KNHANES) to verify the validity of these estimates. Methods: One hundred and thirty-four representative foods (RFs) covering 92.5% of the total food intake of Koreans were selected, and 228 pairs of corresponding 'RF x representative cooking method' were derived by reflecting the methods used mainly in terms of frequency and quantity in their cooking. RF samples were collected from three cities with a larger population size in three regions (nine cities) nationwide, and six composite samples were made for each RF, considering its regional and/or seasonal characteristics. One thousand three hundred and sixty-eight 'RF x representative cooking method' pair samples were prepared, and the Na and K contents were assessed using inductively coupled plasma atomic emission spectrometry (ICP-MS). The Na and K intake of the Korean population was estimated by linking the content with the food intake data from the 7th KNHANES. Results: The mean Na and K intake of Koreans were 2,807.4 mg and 2,335.0 mg per person per day, respectively. A comparison with the Na and K intake from KNHANES, including only RFs of KTDS, showed comparable results with less than 5% variation. While the contribution and ranking of food items to Na intake were similar between KNHANES and KTDS, there were differences in K intake. This was attributed to the large discrepancies in the K content of rice and coffee between KTDS results and the values in the 9th Revision of the National Food Composition Table used in KNHANES. Conclusions: The Na and K intake of Koreans estimated based on the KTDS, which performed nutrient analysis on samples prepared to a 'table-ready' state using foods of the representative collection, was similar and comparable with that of KNHANES. This supports the validity and usefulness of FNDB-based nutrient intake estimation at the population level. The list of nutrients studied in KTDS is expected to be expanded, allowing for intake estimation of nutrients with currently insufficient or absent information in the FNDBs in use.

Comparison of Fast Food Consumption Patterns, Choice, and Satisfaction According to Age (연령에 따른 패스트푸드 이용실태, 선택, 만족도 비교)

  • Hong, Seung–Hee
    • Journal of Korea Entertainment Industry Association
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    • v.13 no.5
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    • pp.25-36
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    • 2019
  • The purpose of this study was to investigate the effect of fast food intake, choice, and satisfaction on age among 311 people living in the metropolitan area. The frequency of fast food intake was high in the 20s and 30s, and those in the 40s and over 50s were low, showing a significant difference according to age. Costs for fast food purchases mainly ranged from 5,000 won to 7,000 won. Major sources of information on choosing fast food were mainly from friends and the internet in 20s, and mass media from over 30s. Thirty-nine percent of subjects responded that their dietary habits changed after fast food intake, and the most changes was to like spicy food, followed by eating-out times increased. The factors affecting the choice of fast food were mainly easy to eat, followed by time was not influenced and taste, and taste showed significant difference according to age. Among the subjects who were worried about fast food, 30s showed mainly increase in body weight and over 50s had health problem, and a significant difference was observed according to age. For the improvements in fast food intake, subjects answered in nutrition, hygiene and price in order. Fast food brands, services, menus were the most satisfied in 30s, and 40s were the most unsatisfied, and there was a significant difference. In conclusion, the frequency of fast food intake was higher in young people, and the choice of fast food and satisfaction appeared to be significantly influenced by age. Therefore, data are required to recognize and practice a balanced diet by activating studies on the fast food intake of middle-aged and elderly people and understanding consumer changes.

Technology Licensing Agreements from an Organizational Learning Perspective

  • Lee, JongKuk;Song, Sangyoung
    • Asia Marketing Journal
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    • v.15 no.3
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    • pp.79-95
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    • 2013
  • New product innovation is a process of embodying new knowledge in a product and technology licensing is getting popular as a means to innovations and introduction of new product to the market in today's competitive global market environment. Incumbents often rely on technology licensing to access new product opportunities created by other firms. Prior research has examined various aspects of technology licensing agreements such as specific contract terms of licensing agreements, e.g., distribution of control rights, exclusivity of licensing agreements, cross-licensing, and the scope of licensing agreements. This study aims to provide answers to an important, but under-researched question: why do some incumbents initiate more licensing agreement for exploratory learning while others do it for exploitative learning along the innovation process? We attempt to extend our knowledge of licensing agreements from an organizational learning perspective. Technology licensing as a specific form of interfirm linkages can be initiated with different learning objectives along the process of new product innovation. The exploratory stages of the innovation process such as discovery or research stages involve extensive searches to create new knowledge or capabilities, whereas the exploitative stages of the innovation process such as application or test stages near the commercialization are more focused on developing specific applications or improving their efficiency or reliability. Thus, different stages of the innovation process generate different types of learning and the resulting technological resources. We examine when incumbents as licensees initiate more licensing agreements for exploratory learning objectives and when more for exploitative learning objectives, focusing on two factors that may influence a firm's formation of exploratory and exploitative licensing agreements: 1) its past radical and incremental innovation experience and 2) its internal investments in R&D and marketing. We develop and test our hypotheses regarding the relationship between a firm's radical and incremental new product experience, R&D investment intensity and marketing investment intensity, and the likelihood of engaging in exploratory and exploitive licensing agreements. Using data collected from various secondary sources (Recap database, Compustat database, and FDA website), we analyzed technology licensing agreements initiated in the biotechnology and pharmaceutical industries from 1988 to 2011. The results of this study show that incumbents initiate exploratory rather than exploitative licensing agreements when they have more radical innovation experience and when they invest in R&D activities more intensively; in contrast, they initiate exploitative rather than exploratory licensing agreements when they have more incremental innovation experience and when they invest in marketing activities more intensively. The findings of this study contribute to the licensing and interfirm cooperation studies. First, this study lays a foundation to understand the organizational learning aspect of technology licensing agreements. Second, this study sheds lights on how a firm's internal investments in R&D and marketing are linked to its tendency to initiate licensing agreements along the innovation process. Finally, the findings of this study provide important insight to managers regarding which technologies to gain via licensing agreements. This study suggests that firms need to consider their internal investments in R&D and marketing as well as their past innovation experiences when they initiate licensing agreements along the process of new product innovation.

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Assessing the Climatic Suitability for the Drywood Termite, Cryptotermes domesticus Haviland (Blattodea: Kalotermitidae), in South Korea (마른나무흰개미(가칭)의 국내 기후적합성 평가)

  • Min-Jung Kim;Jun-Gi Lee;Youngwoo Nam ;Yonghwan Park
    • Korean journal of applied entomology
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    • v.62 no.3
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    • pp.215-220
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    • 2023
  • A recent discovery of drywood termites (Cryptotermes domesticus) in a residential facility in Seoul has raised significant concern. This exotic insect species, which can damage timber and wooden buildings, necessitates an immediate investigation of potential infestation. In this study, we assessed the climatic suitability for this termite species using a species distribution modeling approach. Global distribution data and bioclimatic variables were compiled from published sources, and predictive models for climatic suitability were developed using four modeling algorithms. An ensemble prediction was made based on the mean occurrence probability derived from the individual models. The final model suggested that this species could potentially establish itself in tropical coastal regions. While the climatic suitability in South Korea was generally found to be low, a careful investigation is still warranted due to the potential risk of colonization and establishment of this species.