• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• 제28권3호
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• pp.659-668
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• 2017

The inverse Weibull distribution (IWD) can be readily applied to a wide range of situations including applications in medicines, reliability and ecology. It is generally known that the lifetimes of test items may not be recorded exactly. In this paper, therefore, we consider the maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) and Bayes estimation of the entropy of a IWD under generalized progressive hybrid censoring (GPHC) scheme. It is observed that the MLE of the entropy cannot be obtained in closed form, so we have to solve two non-linear equations simultaneously. Further, the Bayes estimators for the entropy of IWD based on squared error loss function (SELF), precautionary loss function (PLF), and linex loss function (LLF) are derived. Since the Bayes estimators cannot be obtained in closed form, we derive the Bayes estimates by revoking the Tierney and Kadane approximate method. We carried out Monte Carlo simulations to compare the classical and Bayes estimators. In addition, two real data sets based on GPHC scheme have been also analysed for illustrative purposes.

• 대한기계학회:학술대회논문집
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• 대한기계학회 2003년도 춘계학술대회
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• pp.195-200
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• 2003

An expert system for estimation of fatigue properties from simple tensile data of material is developed, considering nearly all important estimation methods proposed so far, i.e., 7 estimation methods. The expert system is developed using an expert system shell, UNIK, and the knowledge base is constructed with production rules and frames. Forward chaining is employed as a reasoning method. The expert system has three major functions including the function to update the knowledge base. The performance of the expert system is tested using the 54 ${\sigma}-N$ curves consisting of 381 ${\sigma}-N$ data points obtained for 22 materials. It is found that the expert system developed has excellent performance especially for steel materials, and reasonably good for titanium alloys.

• International Journal of Aeronautical and Space Sciences
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• 제16권3호
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• pp.425-436
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• 2015

This paper presents the procedures used for estimating the stability and control derivatives of a general aviation canard aircraft from flight data. The maximum likelihood estimation method which accounts for both process and measurement noise was used for the flight data analysis of a four seat canard aircraft, the Firefly. Without relying on the parameter estimation method, several aerodynamic derivatives were obtained by analyzing the steady state flight data. A wind tunnel test, a flight test of a 1/4 scaled remotely controlled model aircraft, and the prediction of aerodynamic coefficients using the USAF Stability and Control Digital Data Compendium (DATCOM), Advanced Aircraft Analysis (AAA), and Computer Fluid Dynamics (CFD) were performed during the development phase of the Firefly and the results were compared with flight determined derivatives of a full scaled flight prototype. A correlation between the results from each method could be used for the design of the canard aircraft as well as for building the aerodynamic database.

• KEPCO Journal on Electric Power and Energy
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• 제1권1호
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• pp.61-65
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• 2015

For effective distribution planning and operation, we need a reliable estimation of operation capacity. But it is difficult to ensure reliability due to the low accuracy of section load data, which is used as a basis in estimating the operation capacity. This paper discusses how to improve the accuracy of section load data by analyzing the existing method of estimating the section load, using statistical techniques to adjust the acquired data, and using the section load estimation algorithm to estimate the section load based on the adjusted data.

• Journal of the Korean Data Analysis Society
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• 제20권6호
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• pp.2733-2746
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• 2018

The two inverse regression estimation methods, SIR and SAVE to estimate the central space are computationally easy and are widely used. However, SIR and SAVE may have poor performance in finite samples and need strong assumptions (linearity and/or constant covariance conditions) on predictors. The two non-parametric estimation methods, MAVE and dMAVE have much better performance for finite samples than SIR and SAVE. MAVE and dMAVE need no strong requirements on predictors or on the response variable. MAVE is focused on estimating the central mean subspace, but dMAVE is to estimate the central space. This paper explores and compares four methods to explain the dimension reduction. Each algorithm of these four methods is reviewed. Empirical study for simulated data shows that MAVE and dMAVE has relatively better performance than SIR and SAVE, regardless of not only different models but also different distributional assumptions of predictors. However, real data example with the binary response demonstrates that SAVE is better than other methods.

• 산업공학
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• 제25권3호
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• pp.347-356
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• 2012

The acquisition cost of defense weapon system has been continuously increasing because of art-of-technology of it. This phenomenon requires efficiency and transparency in the weapon system acquisition process through cost estimation. Therefore cost estimation is very important to the government acquisition programs to support decisions about funding and to evaluate resource requirement as a key decision point. The Commercial parametric cost estimating models have been using extensively to obtain appropriate cost estimates in early acquisition phase. These models have many restrictions to ensure the cost estimating result in Korean defense environment because they are developed based on foreign R&D data. Also estimation results are different from Korean defense industry accounting system. So, some studies have been tried to develop a CER (Cost Estimation Relationship) based on the Korean historical data. However, there are some restrictions to improve the predictability and ensure the stability of the developed singular CERs which consider the following data characteristics individually. The the abnormal conditions of data that is multicollinearity, outlier and heteroscedasticity under rack of the number of observations. In this paper, a CER's Linear Combining Model is proposed to overcome those limitations which guarantee more accurate estimation (25.42% higher precision) than other singular CERs. At least, this study is meaningful as a first attempt to improve the predictability of CER with insufficient data. The methodology suggested in this study will be useful to develop a complex Korean version cost estimating model development in future.

• 한국항공우주학회지
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• 제47권10호
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• pp.747-752
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• 2019

신뢰성 성장 시험을 수행하며 획득하게 되는 고장 정보와 누적 시험수행시간을 이용하면 신뢰성 성장 모델의 모수 추정이 가능하며, 모수 추정을 통해 해당 제품의 MTBF를 예측할 수 있다. 그러나 시험에 대한 비용, 시간 혹은 제품의 특성 등의 여러 제약으로 인해 고장 정보가 구간적으로 획득되거나, 획득한 고장 정보의 샘플 데이터(Sample Data)의 수가 작을 수 있다. 이는 신뢰성 성장 모델의 모수 추정의 오차를 커지게 하는 원인이 될 수 있다. 본 논문에서는 샘플 데이터의 수가 작을 경우 신뢰성 성장 모델의 모수 추정 시 베이지안 기법 기반의 모수 추정 방법의 적용에 대해 연구를 수행하였다. 시뮬레이션 결과 신뢰성 성장 모델의 모수를 추정할 때, MLE를 적용하여 추정하는 방법보다 베이지안 기법을 적용하는 방법이 추정 정확도가 높음을 확인하였다.

• 한국수학사학회지
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• 제17권1호
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• pp.97-108
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• 2004

There are so many methods in population estimation such as logistic estimation and compound interest estimation. If we have some pieces of information about population of one tribe, we can estimate progenitor chronology of that tribe used by inverse estimation. In this paper, we describe several theory of population estimation, and develop mathematical method for estimation progenitor chronology from prior general data and statistical estimation theory. Several examples are illustrated.

• 대한전자공학회논문지SP
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• 제39권2호
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• pp.147-154
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• 2002

본 논문에서는 multimodal 특성을 갖는 데이터에 대하여 패턴 분류 시 Bhattacharyya distance에 기반한 에러 예측 기법을 제안한다. 제안한 방법은 multimodal 데이터에 대하여 분류 에러와 Bhattacharyya distance를 각각 실험적으로 구하고 이 둘 사이의 관계를 유추하여 에러의 예측 가능성을 조사한다. 본 논문에서는 분류 에러 및 Bhattacharyya distance를 구하기 위하여 multimodal 데이터의 확률 밀도 함수를 정규 분포 특성을 갖는 부클래스들의 조합으로 추정한다. 원격 탐사 데이터를 이용하여 실험한 결과, multimodal 데이터의 분류 에러와 Bhattacharyya distance 사이에 밀접한 관련이 있음이 확인되었으며, Bhattacharyya distance를 이용한 에러 예측 가능성을 보여주었다.

• 경영과학
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• 제14권1호
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• pp.131-149
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• 1997

Software cost estimation is an important both for buyers and sellers(developers). We reviewed domestic and foreign researches and practices on software cost estimation with function point method comprehensively, In this paper, we derived four promising alternative function point models. They are an IFPUG(International Function Point User Group)-based model(Model I), a shorthand model for client/sever software systems(Model II), a data-oricnted model for relatively large software projects(Model III), and a general- purpose function point model for non business application softwares as well as business applications(Model IV). Empirical data shows that Model I, II, and IV are very useful function point models. In particular, model II and IV look very useful models since they are concise and accurate. These models can be incorporated in a new improved guideline for software cost estimation. General opinion survey shows that Model I, II and IV are preferable. There are no significant differences in preference between buyers and sellers. The survey also shows that users think function point method is better than step(line of code)-oriented cost estimation methods in many ways including objectivity and estimation accuracy.