• Title/Summary/Keyword: Damage probability

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An Improvement Study on the Hydrological Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (HQPF) for Rainfall Impact Forecasting (호우 영향예보를 위한 수문학적 정량강우예측(HQPF) 개선 연구)

  • Yoon Hu Shin;Sung Min Kim;Yong Keun Jee;Young-Mi Lee;Byung-Sik Kim
    • Journal of Korean Society of Disaster and Security
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    • 제15권4호
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    • pp.87-98
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    • 2022
  • In recent years, frequent localized heavy rainfalls, which have a lot of rainfall in a short period of time, have been increasingly causing flooding damages. To prevent damage caused by localized heavy rainfalls, Hydrological Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (HQPF) was developed using the Local ENsemble prediction System (LENS) provided by the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) and Machine Learning and Probability Matching (PM) techniques using Digital forecast data. HQPF is produced as information on the impact of heavy rainfall to prepare for flooding damage caused by localized heavy rainfalls, but there is a tendency to overestimate the low rainfall intensity. In this study, we improved HQPF by expanding the period of machine learning data, analyzing ensemble techniques, and changing the process of Probability Matching (PM) techniques to improve predictive accuracy and over-predictive propensity of HQPF. In order to evaluate the predictive performance of the improved HQPF, we performed the predictive performance verification on heavy rainfall cases caused by the Changma front from August 27, 2021 to September 3, 2021. We found that the improved HQPF showed a significantly improved prediction accuracy for rainfall below 10 mm, as well as the over-prediction tendency, such as predicting the likelihood of occurrence and rainfall area similar to observation.

Study of a Process for Flood Detention Location and Storage Capacity (재해저류지 위치결정과 용량결정 과정에 관한 연구)

  • Oh, Gun-Heung;Park, Ki-Bum;Chang, In-Soo
    • Journal of Environmental Science International
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    • 제17권6호
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    • pp.601-609
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    • 2008
  • In this study for the development of area due to the increasing of industry, population and spreading of urbanization is rapidly increasing but about seventy percent of our nation's areas consists of the mountainous districts. In such case, when those areas have the heavy rains break, they are washed away by a fast-flowing stream of a valley and overflowed. Thus it could result on human life and property damage and also the widespread of flood damage in the downstream area. To decrease those damage, the construction of flood control reservoir is necessary. This research was aim to construct the flood runoff models of a mountainous small district and to determine the probability rainfall by analyzing precipitation. The study also examined the effects of location and size of flood control reservoir on flood reduction. The result showed that the construction of detention basin was an effective way to ensure the safety of flood control and multiple detention basin had superior result for reducing amount of runoff in the down stream area than the single detention basin.

Seismic vulnerability assessment of confined masonry wall buildings

  • Ranjbaran, Fariman;Hosseini, Mahmood
    • Earthquakes and Structures
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    • 제7권2호
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    • pp.201-216
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    • 2014
  • In this paper the vulnerability of the confined masonry buildings is evaluated analytically. The proposed approach includes the nonlinear dynamic analysis of the two-story confined masonry buildings with common plan as a reference structure. In this approach the damage level is calculated based on the probability of exceedance of loss vs a specified ground motion in the form of fragility curves. The fragility curves of confined masonry wall buildings are presented in two levels of limit states corresponding to elastic and maximum strength versus PGA based on analytical method. In this regard the randomness of parameters indicating the characteristics of the building structure as well as ground motion is considered as likely uncertainties. In order to develop the analytical fragility curves the proposed analytical models of confined masonry walls in a previous investigation of the authors, are used to specify the damage indices and responses of the structure. In order to obtain damage indices a series of pushover analyses are performed, and to identify the seismic demand a series of nonlinear dynamic analysis are conducted. Finally by considering various mechanical and geometric parameters of masonry walls and numerous accelerograms, the fragility curves with assuming a log normal distribution of data are derived based on capacity and demand of building structures in a probabilistic approach.

Estimation of Flood Discharge and Forecasting of Flood Stage in Small-Medium Urban Basin (중소도시유역의 홍수량산정 및 홍수위 예측)

  • Kim, min-jeong;Kim, byeong-chan;Lee, jong-seok
    • Proceedings of the Korea Contents Association Conference
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    • 한국콘텐츠학회 2009년도 춘계 종합학술대회 논문집
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    • pp.432-436
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    • 2009
  • Recently, damage of flood is increased because of a short of time of concentration by development and a rise in runoff discharge by frequently heavy rain. The increase of runoff discharge is resulted in not only rise of water level but also damage of lives and property around river. Therefore, it is should be the first to estimate the exact runoff discharge. And based on the estimated flood discharge, flood damage is prevented by estimating inundated area of flood. In this study, flood stage is forecasted using HEC-HMS and HEC-RAS for Namdae-stream. The peak discharges were determinated by probability rainfall with the return period. The peak discharges obtained from HEC-HMS were inputted boundary conditions for the channel routing. Flood stages were evaluated using HEC-RAS.

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Dynamic crosswind fatigue of slender vertical structures

  • Repetto, Maria Pia;Solari, Giovanni
    • Wind and Structures
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    • 제5권6호
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    • pp.527-542
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    • 2002
  • Wind-excited vibrations of slender structures can induce fatigue damage and cause structural failure without exceeding ultimate limit state. Unfortunately, the growing importance of this problem is coupled with an evident lack of simple calculation criteria. This paper proposes a mathematical method for evaluating the crosswind fatigue of slender vertical structures, which represents the dual formulation of a parallel method that the authors recently developed with regard to alongwind vibrations. It takes into account the probability distribution of the mean wind velocity at the structural site. The aerodynamic crosswind actions on the stationary structure are caused by the vortex shedding and by the lateral turbulence, both schematised by spectral models. The structural response in the small displacement regime is expressed in closed form by considering only the contribution of the first vibration mode. The stress cycle counting is based on a probabilistic method for narrow-band processes and leads to analytical formulae of the stress cycles histogram, of the accumulated damage and of the fatigue life. The extension of this procedure to take into account aeroelastic vibrations due to lock-in is carried out by means of ESDU method. The examples point out the great importance of vortex shedding and especially of lock-in concerning fatigue.

Condition assessment of raking damaged bulk carriers under vertical bending moments

  • Kim, Do Kyun;Yub, Su Young;Choi, Han Suk
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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    • 제46권5호
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    • pp.629-644
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    • 2013
  • This paper concerns about the raking damages on the ultimate residual hull girder strength of bulk carriers by applying the modified R-D diagram (advanced method). The limited raking damage scenarios, based on the IMO's probability density function of grounding accidents, were carried out by using sampling technique. Recently, innovative method for the evaluation of the structural condition assessment, which covers the residual strength and damage index diagram (R-D diagram), was proposed by Paik et al. (2012). This concept is applied in the present study and modified R-D diagram, which can be considered vessel size effect, is then proposed. Four different types of bulk carrier structures, i.e., Handysize (37K), Supramax (57K), Kamsarmax (82K) and Capesize (181K) by Common Structural Rule (CSR), were applied to draw the general tendency. The ALPS/HULL, intelligent supersize finite element method, was employed for the ultimate longitudinal strength analysis. The obtained empirical formulas will be useful for the condition assessment of bulk carrier structures. It can also cover different sizes of the bulk carriers in terms of ultimate longitudinal strength. Important insights and findings with useful guidelines developed in this study are summarized.

Influence of non-Gaussian characteristics of wind load on fatigue damage of wind turbine

  • Zhu, Ying;Shuang, Miao
    • Wind and Structures
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    • 제31권3호
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    • pp.217-227
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    • 2020
  • Based on translation models, both Gaussian and non-Gaussian wind fields are generated using spectral representation method for investigating the influence of non-Gaussian characteristics and directivity effect of wind load on fatigue damage of wind turbine. Using the blade aerodynamic model and multi-body dynamics, dynamic responses are calculated. Using linear damage accumulation theory and linear crack propagation theory, crack initiation life and crack propagation life are discussed with consideration of the joint probability density distribution of the wind direction and mean wind speed in detail. The result shows that non-Gaussian characteristics of wind load have less influence on fatigue life of wind turbine in the area with smaller annual mean wind speeds. Whereas, the influence becomes significant with the increase of the annual mean wind speed. When the annual mean wind speeds are 7 m/s and 9 m/s at hub height of 90 m, the crack initiation lives under softening non-Gaussian wind decrease by 10% compared with Gaussian wind fields or at higher hub height. The study indicates that the consideration of the influence of softening non-Gaussian characteristics of wind inflows can significantly decrease the fatigue life, and, if neglected, it can result in non-conservative fatigue life estimates for the areas with higher annual mean wind speeds.

Damage Potential of a Domestic Metropolitan Railway Bridge subjected to 2016 Gyeongju Earthquake (2016년 경주지진에 의한 국내 도시철도 교량의 잠재적 손상평가)

  • Lee, Do Hyung;Shim, Jae Yeob;Jeon, Jong-Su
    • Journal of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea
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    • 제20권7_spc호
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    • pp.461-472
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    • 2016
  • Damage potential has been investigated for a domestic metropolitan railway bridge subjected to 2016 Gyeongju earthquake which has been reported as the strongest earthquake in Korea. For this purpose, nonlinear static pushover analyses for the bridge piers have been carried out to evaluate ductility capacities. Then, the capacities have been compared with those suggested by Railway Design Standards of Korea. This comparison shows that all piers possess enough safety margins. Nonlinear dynamic time-history analysis has also been conducted to estimate both displacement and shear force demands for the bridge subjected to ground motions recorded at stations in near of Gyeongju. Maximum demands reveal that response under the ground motions remains essentially in elastic. In addition, for a further assessment of the bridge under the Gyeongju earthquake, fragility analyses have been performed using those ground motions. The fragility results indicate that the recorded earthquakes do not significantly affect the damage exceedance probability of the bridge piers.

Experimental and numerical studies on seismic performance of hollow RC bridge columns

  • Han, Qiang;Zhou, Yulong;Du, Xiuli;Huang, Chao;Lee, George C.
    • Earthquakes and Structures
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    • 제7권3호
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    • pp.251-269
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    • 2014
  • To investigate the seismic performance and to obtain quantitative parameters for the requirement of performance-based bridge seismic design approach, 12 reinforced concrete (RC) hollow rectangular bridge column specimens were tested under constant axial load and cyclic bending. Parametric study is carried out on axial load ratio, aspect ratio, longitudinal reinforcement ratio and transverse reinforcement ratio. The damage states of these column specimens were related to engineering limit states to determine the quantitative criteria of performance-based bridge seismic design. The hysteretic behavior of bridge column specimens was simulated based on the fiber model in OpenSees program and the results of the force-displacement hysteretic curves were well agreed with the experimental results. The damage states of residual cracking, cover spalling, and core crushing could be well related to engineering limit states, such as longitudinal tensile strains of reinforcement or compressive strains of concrete, etc. using cumulative probability curves. The ductility coefficient varying from 3.71 to 8.29, and the equivalent viscous damping ratio varying from 0.19 to 0.31 could meet the requirements of seismic design.

Seismic Fragility of Steel Piping System Based on Pipe Size, Coupling Type, and Wall Thickness

  • Ju, Bu Seog;Gupta, Abhinav;Ryu, Yonghee
    • International journal of steel structures
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    • 제18권4호
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    • pp.1200-1209
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    • 2018
  • In this study, a probabilistic framework of the damage assessment of pipelines subjected to extreme hazard scenario was developed to mitigate the risk and enhance design reliability. Nonlinear 3D finite element models of T-joint systems were developed based on experimental tests with respect to leakage detection of black iron piping systems, and a damage assessment analysis of the vulnerability of their components according to nominal pipe size, coupling type, and wall thickness under seismic wave propagations was performed. The analysis results showed the 2-inch schedule 40 threaded T-joint system to be more fragile than the others with respect to the nominal pipe sizes. As for the coupling types, the data indicated that the probability of failure of the threaded T-joint coupling was significantly higher than that of the grooved type. Finally, the seismic capacity of the schedule 40 wall thickness was weaker than that of schedule 10 in the 4-inch grooved coupling, due to the difference in the prohibition of energy dissipation. Therefore, this assessment can contribute to the damage detection and financial losses due to failure of the joint piping system in a liquid pipeline, prior to the decision-making.