• 제목/요약/키워드: Damage estimation

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A Study on Safety Improvement of Safety Devices at Entrance of Expressway Tunnels (터널 입구부 안전시설물 안전성 증대방안 연구)

  • Lee, Jeom-Ho;Kim, Jang-Wook;Kim, Deok-Soo;Lee, Soo-Beom
    • International Journal of Highway Engineering
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    • v.10 no.4
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    • pp.235-245
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    • 2008
  • Since rapidly increase of tunnel with increasing of expressway, the study on safety improvement of safety device at entrance of expressway tunnels is necessary. The existence of tunnel occurs more speed reduction than an upward slope by itself, the collision accident of tunnel entrance causes heavier damage than that of general accident on the road. So, many kinds of safety devices such as poly-ethylene barrier, guard-rail are placed on the road side. But these devices affect the drivers as an obstacle. Although there are various safety devices that are placed at tunnel entrance, this study is related to following 2-cases. One is that the poly-ethylene barrier is placed and the other is that a safety devices is not placed. The reason that these two cases are selected, is that poly-ethylene barrier is usually placed at many tunnel entrances and safety devices can affect the drivers as an obstacle. This study is related to the difference of right-hand side clearance between inside tunnel and outside tunnel, too. The average difference observed car speed and VDS(vehicle detect system) speed nearby the tunnel is analysed. Through the statistical analysis of the average difference, this study suggests an alternatives on safety improvement of safety devices at entrance of expressway tunnels. It is concluded that the small difference of right-hand side clearance is desirable to drivers when a poly-ethylene barrier is placed. And when the difference of right-hand side clearance is large, no safety devices is desirable, and when the difference of right-hand side clearance is small, poly-ethylene barrier should be placed to improve safety.

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A modified Lee-Carter model based on the projection of the skewness of the mortality (왜도 예측을 이용한 Lee-Carter모형의 사망률 예측)

  • Lee, Hangsuck;Baek, Changryong;Kim, Jihyeon
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.29 no.1
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    • pp.41-59
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    • 2016
  • There have been continuous improvements in human life expectancy. Life expectancy is as a key factor in an aging population and can wreak severe damage on the financial integrity of pension providers. Hence, the projection of the accurate future mortality is a critical point to prevent possible losses to pension providers. However, improvements in future mortality would be overestimated by a typical mortality projection method using the Lee-Carter model since it underestimates the mortality index ${\kappa}_t$. This paper suggests a mortality projection based on the projection of the skewness of the mortality versus the typical mortality projection of the Lee-Carter model based on the projection of the mortality index, ${\kappa}_t$. The paper shows how to indirectly estimate future t trend with the skewness of the mortality and compares the results under each estimation method of the mortality index, ${\kappa}_t$. The analysis of the results shows that mortality projection based on the skewness presents less improved mortality at an elderly ages than the original projection.

Impact of Climate Change on Yield Loss Caused by Bacterial Canker on Kiwifruit in Korea (기후변화 시나리오에 따른 미래 참다래 궤양병 피해 예측)

  • Do, Ki Seok;Chung, Bong Nam;Choi, Kyung San;Ahn, Jeong Joon;Joa, Jae Ho
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.18 no.2
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    • pp.65-73
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    • 2016
  • We estimated the averaged maximum incidences of bacterial canker at suitable sites for kiwifruit cultivation in 2020s and 2050s using D-PSA-K model with RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate change scenarios. Though there was a little difference between the estimation using RCP4.5 and that using RCP8.5, the estimated maximum disease incidences were more than 75% at all the suitable sites in Korea except for some southern coastal areas and Jeju island under the assumption that there are a plenty of infections to cause the symptoms. We also analyzed the intermediate and final outputs of D-PSA-K model to find out the trends on the change in disease incidence affected by climate change. Whereas increase of damage to kiwifruit canes in a non-frozen environment caused by bacterial canker was estimated at almost all the suitable sites in both the climate change scenarios, rate of necrosis increase caused by the bacterial canker pathogen in a frozen environment during the last overwintering season was predicted to be reduced at almost all the suitable sites in both the climate change scenarios. Directions of change in estimated maximum incidence varied with sites and scenarios. Whereas the maximum disease incidence at 3.14% of suitable sites for kiwifruit cultivation in 2020s under RCP4.5 scenario was estimated to increase by 10% or more in 2050s, the maximum disease incidence at 25.41% of the suitable sites under RCP8.5 scenario was estimated so.

Seismic Hazards near the Harbors using Historic and Instrumental Earthquake Data (역사 및 계기 지진 자료를 이용한 주요 항만 지역의 지진재해 위험성)

  • Kim, Kwang-Hee;Kang, Su-Young;Jang, In-Sung;Park, Woo-Sun
    • Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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    • v.21 no.5
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    • pp.419-425
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    • 2009
  • Although earthquake damage was negligible in Korea during the last a few decades, its historic records suggest that the peninsula have experienced severe earthquake damages throughout the history. The potential for disastrous earthquakes, therefore, should always be considered. Harbors handle 99.6% of imported and exported cargo in Korea. Thus, it is necessary to secure the safety of harbors against seismic events and to establish a support system of emergency measures. Although instrumental seismic data are favored for seismic hazard estimation, their history in the peninsula is limited only to the past 30 years, which does not represent the long-term seismic characteristics of the peninsula. We use historic earthquakes with magnitude greater than 5 to observe long-term regional seismic hazards. Results of historic earthquake records indicate relatively high seismic hazard at harbors in Pohang, Ulsan and Incheon. Analysis of instrumental earthquake records reveal relatively high seismic hazard for harbors located along the East coast including Okgye, Mukho, Donghae, Samcheok, Pohang, and Ulsan.

Analysis of Landslide Hazard Probability for Cultural Heritage Site using Landslide Prediction Map (산사태예측도에 의한 석조문화재 주변의 산사태재해 가능성 분석)

  • Kim, Kyeong-Su;Lee, Choon-Oh;Song, Yeung-Suk;Cho, Yong-Chan;Kim, Man-Il;Chae, Byung-Gon
    • The Journal of Engineering Geology
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    • v.17 no.3
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    • pp.411-418
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    • 2007
  • It is a very difficult thing to estimate an occurrence possibility location and hazard expectation area by landslide. The prediction difficulty of landslide occurrence has relativity in factor of various geological physical factors and contributions. However, estimation of landslide occurrence possibility and classification of hazard area became available correlation mechanism through analysis of landslide occurrence through landslide data analysis and statistical analysis. This study analyzed a damage possibility of a cultual heritage area due to landslide occurrence by a heavy rainfall. We make a landslide prediction map and tried to analysis of landslide occurrence possibility for the cultural heritage site. The study area chooses a temple of Silsang-Sa Baekjang-Am site and made a landslide prediction map. In landslide prediction map, landslide hazard possibility area expressed by occurrence probability and divided by each of probability degrees. This degree used to evaluate occurrence possibility for existence and nonexistence of landslide in the study site. For the prediction and evaluation of landslide hazard for the cultural heritage site, investigation and analysis technique which is introduced in this study may contribute an efficient management and investigation in the cultural heritage site, Korea.

Environmental Approach to Blasting Effect on the Surrounding Area when the Mine Blasting (광산 발파 시 인근지역에 미치는 발파영향에 대한 환경적 접근)

  • Jeong, Beonghun;Lee, Seungho
    • Journal of the Korean GEO-environmental Society
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    • v.16 no.12
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    • pp.5-12
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    • 2015
  • Since blasting noise is impact noise, it will give a sudden shock to the human. In the case, such as the blast vibration, it has given aging buildings and livestock great damage to move the vibration along ground in nearby regions. In this study, the influence of the blasting generated during excavation was analyzed for effects on regional. A couple of field and laboratory surveys about geological were carried out to figure out the geological ratio in the study-performed area. Blast vibration noise was compared to the domestic and abroad case studies and each of the institutions permissible standards established the most appropriate criteria in site condition. The vibration velocity of blasting vibration exploits the values which were measured from test blasting on the ground in order to examine blasting effect. Considering the blasting point as the shortest distance from safety facilities (farms, private houses, etc.), the examination of the influence range, which was derived from the vibration velocity of blasting vibration, was performed to figure out how the point affected the safety facilities. Three-dimensional numerical analysis was performed a time history analysis in order to analyze the behavior of the structure for a dynamic blast load, which was determined in three directions of the blast vibration value. The results of three-dimensional numerical analysis and the blasting effect of blasting vibration estimation equation blasting vibration of impact circle with accompanying test blasting were compared. And the analysis confirmed similar results figures.

An Investigation of the Control of Two-Spotted Spider Mites (Tetranychus urticae Koch) Resistant to Organo-Phosphates (유기인제저항성 점박이응애(Tetranychus urticae Koch)에 관한 연구)

  • Lee Seung Chan;Harrison R. A.
    • Korean journal of applied entomology
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    • v.7
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    • pp.39-51
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    • 1969
  • The study involved determination of resistance levels of spider mites ta argano-phosphates using topical application and slide dip techniques; laboratory serening tests of alternative acaricides using an O/P resistant strain and a field trial of the screened materials. 1. Strains of Tetranychus were from Timaru(TR), Havelock Narth (HNR), Lincaln (LN). Germany (GR, GN). Comparisons of the resistant strains and normal strains at the LD50 and LC50 levels were as follows : (a) Using the topical application tochnique; with Parathian. resistant levels of the GR. TR and HNR strains of T. urticae were respeativuly, 1035. 484 and 452 times as resistant' as the LN strain. (b) Using the slide dip technique; with Phosdrin, resistant of GR, TR and HNR strains of T. urticae were 635, 274 and 266 times greater respeativuly, than the GN strain. 2. The laboratory sereaning tests were carried out far their contact plus stomach and residual effect to assess the toxicities of eleven alternative materials which would be used far control of O/P resistant strain of T. urticae. The acaricide groups represented were 3 organo-chlorines (Spidex, Kelthane and C 8514), 2 nitrophenyls (UC 19786 and Morocide), 2 cyclic carbonates(Eradex and Morestan). I carbamate (UC2004 7A), 1 mixture of carbamate and orano-chlorine and 2 other chemicals (C 8677 and M2527). From all acaricide tested. Kelthane and Morocide were the most effective, folowed by Spidex and M2527. Morestan, C8514. C8677 and RS 143 were intermediate, but Eradex, UC 19786 and UC 20046A were poor. 3, The number of sapmles required for estimation of the population in the field evaluation of acaricidal effects was one giving the highest practical precision. It was decided, after preliminary sampling trials. to use samples of 30 leaves per replicate which gave a $5.7\%$ standard error. 4. In the field trials, Morocide applied at the $0.05\%\;and\; 0.04\%$ a. i. conc. to black currant trees gave excellent control of O/P resistant population of T. urticae for about 12 days, but Morocide 0.025 and Kel thane $0.02\%$ a. i. cone. gave efficient control for about 6 days. In other words. first applications of Kel thane ane Moroeide gave very high degrees of control of O/P resistant population of the two-spotted spider mite. However, the results indicate that secondary application would sometimes be necessary. There was no foliage damage of black Currants and strawberries by either acaricides at the concentrations used. Acknowledgment ... The authors are grateful to: Dr. R. P. pottinger, Senior Lecturer in Agricultural Zoology. Lincoln college. New Zealand. for his helpful assistance in aiding with the organization of thd field work. Department of agriculture officers for mite colonies. Mr. D. A. Slade, Technical Advisor. Fruitgrowers' Federation (now at Massey University) for his assistance and provision of mites for testing. Mr T. McRae of Timaru for permission to use his crops for field tests. The following chemical companies and I or their New Zealand agents for so readily supplying samples of acarides; Ivan Watkins-Dow Limited. Fruitgrowers Chemical Company Limited. Henry H. York & company (New Zealand). Shell Oil (New Zealand) Limited.

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A Study on Combustion Experiments of Multi Type Air-Conditioner Outdoor Units by Large Scale Calorimeter (라지스케일 칼로리미터에 의한 멀티시스템형 에어컨실외기의 연소실험에 관한 연구)

  • Min, Se-Hong;Bae, Yeon-Jun
    • Fire Science and Engineering
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    • v.25 no.6
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    • pp.168-177
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    • 2011
  • The combustion test for real box of AC outdoor unit has been performed in this study in order to estimate the fire hazard in multi-system type of AC outdoor unit which is currently used for commercial use. The result showed that in test, there was explosion inside of AC outdoor unit, and flame erupted and fire spread through upper side grill. And then this fire burnt the combustibles such as wires, electronic control board, heat exchange copper plate and plastics etc inside the unit, refrigerant gas pipe was burst due to fire, and accelerated the explosion and flame eruption to outside while the refrigerant was erupting. It is found in this test that the maximum heat release rate of AC outdoor unit is 5,830 kW, the maximum internal temperature measured with infrared camera and thermocouple is $1,201^{\circ}C$, maximum ambient temperature is $881^{\circ}C$, and flame rose higher than about 5 m. It is concluded that the fire in AC outdoor unit cause fire to combustibles around the unit, and may give big damage by generating the secondary fire. It is expected that the result obtained from the test on the real object may be applied to fire realization of AC outdoor unit and estimation of fire spreading to the combustibles around in the future computer simulation.

A Study on the Application of Hydraulic Calculations considering the Corrosion Coefficient of Steel Piping for Fire Protection (소방용 강관배관 부식계수를 고려한 수리계산 적용방안에 관한 연구)

  • Mun, Chul-Hwan;Kang, Ho-Jung;Choi, Jae-Wook
    • Fire Science and Engineering
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    • v.34 no.4
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    • pp.69-77
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    • 2020
  • With the recent enlargement and complication of buildings, damage caused by the incidents of fires breaking out are escalating. Consequently, the use of sprinkler facilities is increasing among water-based fire extinguishing systems. Piping materials used in fire prevention systems include carbon steel (for general or pressure pipeline), CPVC, copper, and stainless-steel. Among these, the steel and CPVC pipes, which are commonly employed in fire prevention, were considered for testing the reliability of the water-based systems. This analysis was performed using the PIPENET software to perform hydraulic calculations in order to examine the flow and pressure at the terminal head when the corrosion coefficient was applied; this coefficient was applied considering the aging of pipes. Assuming a uniform pipe diameter in the steel pipes, the rated flow in the pump installed on the first floor of the basement was reduced by over 10% after 20 years had passed (C value of 90); moreover, the reduction in pressure and flow at its terminal head exceeded 30% and 16.5%, respectively. The results indicate that it is difficult to ensure the reliability of these fire prevention facilities. Furthermore, according to our estimation, considering 30 years had passed (C value of 80), the rated flow of the pump was reduced by over 15%, and the corresponding reduction in pressure and flow at its terminal head exceeded 42% and 24%, respectively.

Estimation of lost Earnings by Personal Injury in Aged Society and Its Implication (고령사회에서 인신사고로 인한 일실수입의 산정과 그 시사점 : 대법원 2019. 2. 21. 선고 2018다248909 판결을 중심으로)

  • Jeon, Byeong-Joo;Kim, Keon-Ho
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.20 no.1
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    • pp.460-469
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    • 2020
  • Recently, the Supreme Court pointed out that it would be difficult to maintain the existing opinion any more because the overall conditions that were the basis of the past empirical rule were remarkably changed when estimating the lost earnings of a deceased minor. Thus, the court sentenced en banc decision to extend the maximum working age of manual laborers under the empirical rule to 65 years old. The significance of this ruling is to put an end to social confusion caused by courts' different sentences on the maximum working age under the empirical rule depending on lower court decision, and also to acknowledge the maximum working age of physical laborers by applying the new empirical rule in accordance with entering the aged society. It is still unfortunate to conclude the maximum working age as a specific age and also to estimate the lost earnings of a victim by applying the daily wages of urban laborers. Like this, this study aimed to provide the basic data for guaranteeing a proper compensation for damage to victims by analyzing the issues of rulings related to the maximum working age of manual laborers under the empirical rule, and then complementing imperfections in Korean society that has entered the aged society.