• Title/Summary/Keyword: Damage Predicting

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Abnormal Water Temperature Prediction Model Near the Korean Peninsula Using LSTM (LSTM을 이용한 한반도 근해 이상수온 예측모델)

  • Choi, Hey Min;Kim, Min-Kyu;Yang, Hyun
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.38 no.3
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    • pp.265-282
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    • 2022
  • Sea surface temperature (SST) is a factor that greatly influences ocean circulation and ecosystems in the Earth system. As global warming causes changes in the SST near the Korean Peninsula, abnormal water temperature phenomena (high water temperature, low water temperature) occurs, causing continuous damage to the marine ecosystem and the fishery industry. Therefore, this study proposes a methodology to predict the SST near the Korean Peninsula and prevent damage by predicting abnormal water temperature phenomena. The study area was set near the Korean Peninsula, and ERA5 data from the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) was used to utilize SST data at the same time period. As a research method, Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) algorithm specialized for time series data prediction among deep learning models was used in consideration of the time series characteristics of SST data. The prediction model predicts the SST near the Korean Peninsula after 1- to 7-days and predicts the high water temperature or low water temperature phenomenon. To evaluate the accuracy of SST prediction, Coefficient of determination (R2), Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) indicators were used. The summer (JAS) 1-day prediction result of the prediction model, R2=0.996, RMSE=0.119℃, MAPE=0.352% and the winter (JFM) 1-day prediction result is R2=0.999, RMSE=0.063℃, MAPE=0.646%. Using the predicted SST, the accuracy of abnormal sea surface temperature prediction was evaluated with an F1 Score (F1 Score=0.98 for high water temperature prediction in summer (2021/08/05), F1 Score=1.0 for low water temperature prediction in winter (2021/02/19)). As the prediction period increased, the prediction model showed a tendency to underestimate the SST, which also reduced the accuracy of the abnormal water temperature prediction. Therefore, it is judged that it is necessary to analyze the cause of underestimation of the predictive model in the future and study to improve the prediction accuracy.

Early Growth Characteristics of Quercus rubra Associated with Soil Physicochemical Properties and Meteorological Factors in Six Regions of South Korea (토양 물리·화학적 성질 및 기상인자에 따른 국내 6개 지역의 루브라참나무 초기 생장 특성)

  • Hwang, Hwan Su;Kim, Tae Lim;Oh, Changyoung;Lim, Hyemin;Lee, Il Hwan
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.111 no.3
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    • pp.357-364
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    • 2022
  • We investigated the early growth characteristics of Quercus rubra planted in six regions (Hwaseong, Yangpyeong, Pyeongchang, Samcheok, Chungju, and Gimje) in South Korea in relation to soil physicochemical properties and meteorological factors. Q. rubra (1-0) were planted at a density of 3,000 trees ha-1. The average height, root collar diameter (RCD), and volume of 8-year-old Q. rubra planted in 2014 were 3.52 m, 3.84 cm, and 0.0023 m3, respectively. The growth parameters of Q. rubra were the highest and lowest in Hwaseong and Pyeongchang, respectively. Correlation analysis among the soil physicochemical properties, meteorological factors, and plantation growth characteristics found that pH was the only soil factor negatively correlated with RCD, and the other soil factors were not significantly correlated with the growth characteristics. However, growth characteristics were positively correlated to average temperature from March to October and daily maximum temperature; and they were negatively correlated to altitude, topology, and the number of rainy days from March to October. In particular, the trees planted in Hwaseong area showed the best early growth characteristics because this area had the highest daily maximum temperature, the x average temperature from March to October, the low altitude, and it is located close to the foot of a mountain. In Pyeongchang, the early growth characteristics were negatively affected by winter cold damage because of the high altitude, low daily minimum temperature, and damage by wild animals. In Hwaseong, meteorological factors such as temperature and altitude were more highly correlated to growth characteristics of Q. rubra than the physicochemical soil properties. These results will provide useful information for determining suitable sites for Q. rubra plantations and for predicting early growth characteristics in response to environmental factors.

Chronic HBV Infection in Children: The histopathologic classification and its correlation with clinical findings (소아의 만성 B형 간염: 새로운 병리조직학적 분류와 임상 소견의 상관 분석)

  • Lee, Seon-Young;Ko, Jae-Sung;Kim, Chong-Jai;Jang, Ja-June;Seo, Jeong-Kee
    • Pediatric Gastroenterology, Hepatology & Nutrition
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    • v.1 no.1
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    • pp.56-78
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    • 1998
  • Objective: Chronic hepatitis B infection (CHB) occurs in 6% to 10% of population in Korea. In ethinic communities where prevalence of chronic infection is high such as Korea, transmission of hepatitis B infection is either vertical (ie, by perinatal infection) or by close family contact (usually from mothers or siblings) during the first 5 years of life. The development of chronic hepatitis B infection is increasingly more common the earlier a person is exposed to the virus, particularly in fetal and neonatal life. And it progress to cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma, especially in severe liver damage and perinatal infection. Histopathology of CHB is important when evaluating the final outcomes. A numerical scoring system which is a semiquantitatively assessed objective reproducible classification of chronic viral hepatitis, is a valuable tool for statistical analysis when predicting the outcome and evaluating antiviral and other therapies. In this study, a numerical scoring system (Ludwig system) was applied and compared with the conventional histological classification of De Groute. And the comparative analysis of cinical findings, family history, serology, and liver function test by histopathological findings in chronic hepatitis B of children was done. Methods: Ninety nine patients [mean age=9 years (range=17 months to 16 years)] with clinical, biochemical, serological and histological patterns of chronic HBV infection included in this study. Five of these children had hepatocelluar carcinoma. They were 83 male and 16 female children. They all underwent liver biopsies and histologic evaluation was performed by one pathologist. The biopsy specimens were classified, according to the standard criteria of De Groute as follows: normal, chronic lobular hepatitis (CLH), chronic persistent hepatitis (CPH), mild to severe chronic active hepatitis (CAH), or active cirrhosis, inactive cirrhosis, hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). And the biopsy specimens were also assessed and scored semiquantitatively by the numerical scoring Ludwig system. Serum HBsAg, anti-HBs, HBeAg, anti-HBe, anti-HBc (IgG, IgM), and HDV were measured by radioimunoassays. Results: Male predominated in a proportion of 5.2:1 for all patients. Of 99 patients, 2 cases had normal, 2 cases had CLH, 22 cases had CPH, 40 cases had mild CAH, 19 cases had moderate CAH, 1 case had severe CAH, 7 cases had active cirrhosis, 1 case had inactive cirrhosis, and 5 cases had HCC. The mean age, sex distribution, symptoms, signs, and family history did not differ statistically among the different histologic groups. The numerical scoring system was correlated well with the conventional histological classification. The histological activity evaluated by both the conventional classification and the scoring system was more severe as the levels of serum aminotransferases were higher. In contrast, the levels of serum aminotransferases were not useful for predicting the degree of histologic activity because of its wide range overlapping. When the histological activity was more severe and especially the cirrhosis more progressing, the prothrombin time was more prolonged. The histological severity was inversely related with the duration of seroconversion of HBeAg. Conclusions: The histological activity could not be accurately predicted by clinical and biochemical findings, but by the proper histological classification of the numerical scoring system for the biopsy specimen. The numerical scoring system was correlated well with the conventional histological classification, and it seems to be a valuable tool for the statistical analysis when predicting the outcome and evaluating effects of antiviral and other therapies in chronic hepatitis B in children.

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The Occurrence of Rice Leaf-folder, Cnaphalocrocis medinalis (Lepidoptera : Crambidae) in Suwon and its Responses to Insecticides (혹명나방 개체군의 수원지역 발생 패턴 및 몇가지 약제에 대한 반응)

  • Park, Hong-Hyun;Cho, Jum-Rae;Park, Chang-Gyu;Kim, Kwang-Ho;Goh, Hyun-Gwan;Lee, Sang-Guei
    • Korean journal of applied entomology
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    • v.49 no.3
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    • pp.219-226
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    • 2010
  • This paper presents the occurrence and damage characteristics of the rice leaf-folder populations in the paddy fields of Dangsu-dong, Suwon from 2004 to 2007, and also reports the insecticide response of rice leaf-folder populations, which were collected from 2005 to 2006 in Korea and Vietnam. Laboratory measurements of the head capsule width and body length data enabled the identification of the rice leaf-folder larva stages collected in the field. The rice leaf-folder population in Suwon from 2004 to 2007 has a clear pattern consisting of two different group: the low and high density years. During the low density years (2004 and 2006), only one adult peak was noted in late August, with the damaged-hill percent less than 10% in late July, and the damaged-leaf percent around 2% in September. In contrast, during the high density years (2005 and 2007), two adult peaks were noted in early August and mid-September, with the damaged-hill percent was around 30% in late July, and the damaged-leaf percent 15 to 30% in September, which was beyond the economic injury level of rice leaf-folder. High correlations existed between the occurrence of rice leaf-folder in late July and early August and damages to rice during September. Based on these results, we suggest that the information on the rice leaf-folder population monitored by the adult density or damaged-hill percent in late July and early August would be very useful for predicting the damages later in the season for aiding in decision-making for timely control. In addition, the regional populations of rice leaf-folder showed the similar responses to the insecticides tested: high susceptibility to IGRs (tebufenozide and methoxyfenozide) and organophosphates (chlorpyrifos-methyl, pyridaphenthion), but relatively low to cartap.

Issue tracking and voting rate prediction for 19th Korean president election candidates (댓글 분석을 통한 19대 한국 대선 후보 이슈 파악 및 득표율 예측)

  • Seo, Dae-Ho;Kim, Ji-Ho;Kim, Chang-Ki
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.24 no.3
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    • pp.199-219
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    • 2018
  • With the everyday use of the Internet and the spread of various smart devices, users have been able to communicate in real time and the existing communication style has changed. Due to the change of the information subject by the Internet, data became more massive and caused the very large information called big data. These Big Data are seen as a new opportunity to understand social issues. In particular, text mining explores patterns using unstructured text data to find meaningful information. Since text data exists in various places such as newspaper, book, and web, the amount of data is very diverse and large, so it is suitable for understanding social reality. In recent years, there has been an increasing number of attempts to analyze texts from web such as SNS and blogs where the public can communicate freely. It is recognized as a useful method to grasp public opinion immediately so it can be used for political, social and cultural issue research. Text mining has received much attention in order to investigate the public's reputation for candidates, and to predict the voting rate instead of the polling. This is because many people question the credibility of the survey. Also, People tend to refuse or reveal their real intention when they are asked to respond to the poll. This study collected comments from the largest Internet portal site in Korea and conducted research on the 19th Korean presidential election in 2017. We collected 226,447 comments from April 29, 2017 to May 7, 2017, which includes the prohibition period of public opinion polls just prior to the presidential election day. We analyzed frequencies, associative emotional words, topic emotions, and candidate voting rates. By frequency analysis, we identified the words that are the most important issues per day. Particularly, according to the result of the presidential debate, it was seen that the candidate who became an issue was located at the top of the frequency analysis. By the analysis of associative emotional words, we were able to identify issues most relevant to each candidate. The topic emotion analysis was used to identify each candidate's topic and to express the emotions of the public on the topics. Finally, we estimated the voting rate by combining the volume of comments and sentiment score. By doing above, we explored the issues for each candidate and predicted the voting rate. The analysis showed that news comments is an effective tool for tracking the issue of presidential candidates and for predicting the voting rate. Particularly, this study showed issues per day and quantitative index for sentiment. Also it predicted voting rate for each candidate and precisely matched the ranking of the top five candidates. Each candidate will be able to objectively grasp public opinion and reflect it to the election strategy. Candidates can use positive issues more actively on election strategies, and try to correct negative issues. Particularly, candidates should be aware that they can get severe damage to their reputation if they face a moral problem. Voters can objectively look at issues and public opinion about each candidate and make more informed decisions when voting. If they refer to the results of this study before voting, they will be able to see the opinions of the public from the Big Data, and vote for a candidate with a more objective perspective. If the candidates have a campaign with reference to Big Data Analysis, the public will be more active on the web, recognizing that their wants are being reflected. The way of expressing their political views can be done in various web places. This can contribute to the act of political participation by the people.

Geological Heritage Grade Distribution Mapping Using GIS (공간정보를 이용한 지질유산 등급분포도 작성 연구)

  • Lee, Soo-Jae;Lee, Sunmin;Lee, Moung-Jin
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.33 no.5_3
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    • pp.867-878
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    • 2017
  • Recent interest in geological heritage has been increased in that it can be used as a basic data onto predicting the global environmental change of its containing information about past global environment. In addition, due to the characteristics of the geological heritage, it is easy to damage and difficult to recover without continuous preservation and management. However, there are more damages occurring because of the sporadic spatial distribution and ambiguous management authority of geological heritage. Therefore, an integrated management system is needed by determining the spatial distribution of geological heritage preferentially. In this study, the detailed criteria for assessment of value from the preliminary studies were applied and the geological heritage grade distribution map was generated by using geospatial data in Seoul metropolitan area. For this purpose, the list of geological heritage sites in the Seoul metropolitan area, which is the study area, were complied through a literature review. The geospatial database was designed and constructed by applying the detailed criteria for assessment of value from the preliminary studies. After the construction of the spatial database, a grade map of the geological heritage was created. As a result of the geological heritage grade map in the Seoul metropolitan area, there were more than 35% of the geological heritage in northern Gyeonggi provinces such as Yeoncheon city (18.8%), Pocheon city (10.6%) and Paju city (6.3%). It is followed by 18.1% in Incheon and 8.1% in Ansan, which is approximately 26.2% in western Gyeonggi Province. The geological age of the geological heritage was the highest at in the fourth stage of the Cenozoic era of 16.9%. Through the results of this study, the geological heritage data of the Seoul metropolitan area were extracted from existing literature data and converted into spatial information. It enables comparing the geological features with the spatial distribution of geological heritage. In addition, a management system has been established based on spatial information of constantly building geological heritage data. This provides the integrated management system of the geological heritage to manage authority so that it can be used as a basis for the development of the geological park. Based on the results of this study, it is considered to be possible to systematically construct and utilize the geological heritage across the country.

Evaluation of Endoscopic and Histological Change of Gastritis Related to Helicobacter pylori Eradication in Children (소아 Helicobacter pylori 위염에서 균 박멸과 관련된 위염의 내시경 및 조직학적 변화에 대한 연구)

  • Chang, Ju-Young;Kim, Han-Seong;Seo, Jeong-Kee
    • Pediatric Gastroenterology, Hepatology & Nutrition
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    • v.4 no.1
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    • pp.18-27
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    • 2001
  • Purpose: The aims of this study are to investigate the effect of the eradication of H. pylori on histological change of gastric mucosa in children with H. pylori gastritis and to determine whether the histological grading by the Sydney system is valuable in predicting the effect of treatment. Methods: 1) Histological scores by the Sydney system and the endoscopic characteristics were assessed before and at least four weeks after anti-H. pylori therapy in 42 children with H. pylori gastritis. 2) In 32 children treated with omeprazole, amoxicillin and clarithromycin (OAC), pretreatment histological scores and endoscopic findings were compared between the eradicated and the noneradicated to evaluate their predictive value for the successful eradication. Results: 1) In the eradicated (27 cases), nodular gastritis significantly decreased from 89% to 63% (p<0.05). There was an significant improvement in the mean activity score from 2.06 before treatment to 0.24 after treatment (p<0.01). The mean inflammatory score also improved from 2.61 before treatment to 1.89 after treatment (p<0.05). Lymphoid follicles significantly decreased from 48% to 15% (p<0.05). Epithelial damage improved in all 4 cases. But in the noneradicated (15 cases), there was no significant change in the frequency of nodular gastritis, the mean activity score, the mean inflammatory score and the frequency of the lymphoid follicles. 2) In 32 children treated with OAC, there was a tendency that the higher was the pretreatment score of the bacterial density, the lower was the eradication rate of H. pylori (p=0.072). Conclusion: The loss of the polymorphonuclear cell infiltration is the most prominent histological change after successful eradication. There may be negative correlation of the grade of the bacterial density with the success rate of the anti-H. pylori therapy.

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Development of 3D Impulse Calculation Technique for Falling Down of Trees (수목 도복의 3D 충격량 산출 기법 개발)

  • Kim, Chae-Won;Kim, Choong-Sik
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Landscape Architecture
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    • v.51 no.2
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    • pp.1-11
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    • 2023
  • This study intended to develop a technique for quantitatively and 3-dimensionally predicting the potential failure zone and impulse that may occur when trees are fall down. The main outcomes of this study are as follows. First, this study established the potential failure zone and impulse calculation formula in order to quantitatively calculate the risks generated when trees are fallen down. When estimating the potential failure zone, the calculation was performed by magnifying the height of trees by 1.5 times, reflecting the likelihood of trees falling down and slipping. With regard to the slope of a tree, the range of 360° centered on the root collar was set in the case of trees that grow upright and the range of 180° from the inclined direction was set in the case of trees that grow inclined. The angular momentum was calculated by reflecting the rotational motion from the root collar when the trees fell down, and the impulse was calculated by converting it into the linear momentum. Second, the program to calculate a potential failure zone and impulse was developed using Rhino3D and Grasshopper. This study created the 3-dimensional models of the shapes for topography, buildings, and trees using the Rhino3D, thereby connecting them to Grasshopper to construct the spatial information. The algorithm was programmed using the calculation formula in the stage of risk calculation. This calculation considered the information on the trees' growth such as the height, inclination, and weight of trees and the surrounding environment including adjacent trees, damage targets, and analysis ranges. In the stage of risk inquiry, the calculation results were visualized into a three-dimensional model by summarizing them. For instance, the risk degrees were classified into various colors to efficiently determine the dangerous trees and dangerous areas.

Mineral Transformation Characteristics of Jarosite to Goethite Depending on Cation Species and pH (자로사이트 내 양이온 종과 pH에 따른 침철석으로의 광물 변화 특성)

  • Yeongkyoo Kim
    • Korean Journal of Mineralogy and Petrology
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    • v.37 no.2
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    • pp.47-57
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    • 2024
  • Jarosite, a mineral belonging to the alunite family, is found in various low pH environments and can incorporate cations or oxyanions into its structure, either by coprecipitation or substitution. This mineral is sensitive to pH changes and can easily transform into goethite upon geochemical changes, such as an increase in pH. This transformation can release toxic ions from the jarosite, potentially causing additional environmental damage. In addition to potassium (K), sodium (Na) and ammonium (NH4) can also substitute for cations in jarosite. The formation of jarosites containing these and other cations is significant not only for acid mine drainage but also for the smelting industry. In this study, three different types of jarosites containing various cations were synthesized and the phase transformation of each jarosite to goethite upon pH change were compared. All the jarosites were sensitive to pH changes, showing much higher rates of phase change at pH 8 than at pH 4. At the relatively low pH of 4, the phase transformation of K-jarosite, which is most stable in structure, to goethite was the slowest. For the other two jarosites, the cations have either smaller or larger radii than K ions, resulting in differences in structural stability and they showed more rapid transformations to goethite. However, at pH 8, K-jarosite exhibited a much more rapid transformation to goethite than the other jarosites, which was also evident from the rapid increase in K ions in aqueous solution. The mineral transformation behavior of K-jarosite at higher pH is significantly different from that at lower pH, indicating that the mechanism of the transformation to goethite differs between these conditions, which requires further investigation. The results of this study indicate that the mineral transformation of jarosite in acid mine drainage or smelter waste disposal may significantly influence the behavior of heavy metals. This research provides valuable insights for predicting the behavior of heavy metals in smelting industry waste disposal.

DEVELOPMENT OF STATEWIDE TRUCK TRAFFIC FORECASTING METHOD BY USING LIMITED O-D SURVEY DATA (한정된 O-D조사자료를 이용한 주 전체의 트럭교통예측방법 개발)

  • 박만배
    • Proceedings of the KOR-KST Conference
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    • 1995.02a
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    • pp.101-113
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    • 1995
  • The objective of this research is to test the feasibility of developing a statewide truck traffic forecasting methodology for Wisconsin by using Origin-Destination surveys, traffic counts, classification counts, and other data that are routinely collected by the Wisconsin Department of Transportation (WisDOT). Development of a feasible model will permit estimation of future truck traffic for every major link in the network. This will provide the basis for improved estimation of future pavement deterioration. Pavement damage rises exponentially as axle weight increases, and trucks are responsible for most of the traffic-induced damage to pavement. Consequently, forecasts of truck traffic are critical to pavement management systems. The pavement Management Decision Supporting System (PMDSS) prepared by WisDOT in May 1990 combines pavement inventory and performance data with a knowledge base consisting of rules for evaluation, problem identification and rehabilitation recommendation. Without a r.easonable truck traffic forecasting methodology, PMDSS is not able to project pavement performance trends in order to make assessment and recommendations in the future years. However, none of WisDOT's existing forecasting methodologies has been designed specifically for predicting truck movements on a statewide highway network. For this research, the Origin-Destination survey data avaiiable from WisDOT, including two stateline areas, one county, and five cities, are analyzed and the zone-to'||'&'||'not;zone truck trip tables are developed. The resulting Origin-Destination Trip Length Frequency (00 TLF) distributions by trip type are applied to the Gravity Model (GM) for comparison with comparable TLFs from the GM. The gravity model is calibrated to obtain friction factor curves for the three trip types, Internal-Internal (I-I), Internal-External (I-E), and External-External (E-E). ~oth "macro-scale" calibration and "micro-scale" calibration are performed. The comparison of the statewide GM TLF with the 00 TLF for the macro-scale calibration does not provide suitable results because the available 00 survey data do not represent an unbiased sample of statewide truck trips. For the "micro-scale" calibration, "partial" GM trip tables that correspond to the 00 survey trip tables are extracted from the full statewide GM trip table. These "partial" GM trip tables are then merged and a partial GM TLF is created. The GM friction factor curves are adjusted until the partial GM TLF matches the 00 TLF. Three friction factor curves, one for each trip type, resulting from the micro-scale calibration produce a reasonable GM truck trip model. A key methodological issue for GM. calibration involves the use of multiple friction factor curves versus a single friction factor curve for each trip type in order to estimate truck trips with reasonable accuracy. A single friction factor curve for each of the three trip types was found to reproduce the 00 TLFs from the calibration data base. Given the very limited trip generation data available for this research, additional refinement of the gravity model using multiple mction factor curves for each trip type was not warranted. In the traditional urban transportation planning studies, the zonal trip productions and attractions and region-wide OD TLFs are available. However, for this research, the information available for the development .of the GM model is limited to Ground Counts (GC) and a limited set ofOD TLFs. The GM is calibrated using the limited OD data, but the OD data are not adequate to obtain good estimates of truck trip productions and attractions .. Consequently, zonal productions and attractions are estimated using zonal population as a first approximation. Then, Selected Link based (SELINK) analyses are used to adjust the productions and attractions and possibly recalibrate the GM. The SELINK adjustment process involves identifying the origins and destinations of all truck trips that are assigned to a specified "selected link" as the result of a standard traffic assignment. A link adjustment factor is computed as the ratio of the actual volume for the link (ground count) to the total assigned volume. This link adjustment factor is then applied to all of the origin and destination zones of the trips using that "selected link". Selected link based analyses are conducted by using both 16 selected links and 32 selected links. The result of SELINK analysis by u~ing 32 selected links provides the least %RMSE in the screenline volume analysis. In addition, the stability of the GM truck estimating model is preserved by using 32 selected links with three SELINK adjustments, that is, the GM remains calibrated despite substantial changes in the input productions and attractions. The coverage of zones provided by 32 selected links is satisfactory. Increasing the number of repetitions beyond four is not reasonable because the stability of GM model in reproducing the OD TLF reaches its limits. The total volume of truck traffic captured by 32 selected links is 107% of total trip productions. But more importantly, ~ELINK adjustment factors for all of the zones can be computed. Evaluation of the travel demand model resulting from the SELINK adjustments is conducted by using screenline volume analysis, functional class and route specific volume analysis, area specific volume analysis, production and attraction analysis, and Vehicle Miles of Travel (VMT) analysis. Screenline volume analysis by using four screenlines with 28 check points are used for evaluation of the adequacy of the overall model. The total trucks crossing the screenlines are compared to the ground count totals. L V/GC ratios of 0.958 by using 32 selected links and 1.001 by using 16 selected links are obtained. The %RM:SE for the four screenlines is inversely proportional to the average ground count totals by screenline .. The magnitude of %RM:SE for the four screenlines resulting from the fourth and last GM run by using 32 and 16 selected links is 22% and 31 % respectively. These results are similar to the overall %RMSE achieved for the 32 and 16 selected links themselves of 19% and 33% respectively. This implies that the SELINICanalysis results are reasonable for all sections of the state.Functional class and route specific volume analysis is possible by using the available 154 classification count check points. The truck traffic crossing the Interstate highways (ISH) with 37 check points, the US highways (USH) with 50 check points, and the State highways (STH) with 67 check points is compared to the actual ground count totals. The magnitude of the overall link volume to ground count ratio by route does not provide any specific pattern of over or underestimate. However, the %R11SE for the ISH shows the least value while that for the STH shows the largest value. This pattern is consistent with the screenline analysis and the overall relationship between %RMSE and ground count volume groups. Area specific volume analysis provides another broad statewide measure of the performance of the overall model. The truck traffic in the North area with 26 check points, the West area with 36 check points, the East area with 29 check points, and the South area with 64 check points are compared to the actual ground count totals. The four areas show similar results. No specific patterns in the L V/GC ratio by area are found. In addition, the %RMSE is computed for each of the four areas. The %RMSEs for the North, West, East, and South areas are 92%, 49%, 27%, and 35% respectively, whereas, the average ground counts are 481, 1383, 1532, and 3154 respectively. As for the screenline and volume range analyses, the %RMSE is inversely related to average link volume. 'The SELINK adjustments of productions and attractions resulted in a very substantial reduction in the total in-state zonal productions and attractions. The initial in-state zonal trip generation model can now be revised with a new trip production's trip rate (total adjusted productions/total population) and a new trip attraction's trip rate. Revised zonal production and attraction adjustment factors can then be developed that only reflect the impact of the SELINK adjustments that cause mcreases or , decreases from the revised zonal estimate of productions and attractions. Analysis of the revised production adjustment factors is conducted by plotting the factors on the state map. The east area of the state including the counties of Brown, Outagamie, Shawano, Wmnebago, Fond du Lac, Marathon shows comparatively large values of the revised adjustment factors. Overall, both small and large values of the revised adjustment factors are scattered around Wisconsin. This suggests that more independent variables beyond just 226; population are needed for the development of the heavy truck trip generation model. More independent variables including zonal employment data (office employees and manufacturing employees) by industry type, zonal private trucks 226; owned and zonal income data which are not available currently should be considered. A plot of frequency distribution of the in-state zones as a function of the revised production and attraction adjustment factors shows the overall " adjustment resulting from the SELINK analysis process. Overall, the revised SELINK adjustments show that the productions for many zones are reduced by, a factor of 0.5 to 0.8 while the productions for ~ relatively few zones are increased by factors from 1.1 to 4 with most of the factors in the 3.0 range. No obvious explanation for the frequency distribution could be found. The revised SELINK adjustments overall appear to be reasonable. The heavy truck VMT analysis is conducted by comparing the 1990 heavy truck VMT that is forecasted by the GM truck forecasting model, 2.975 billions, with the WisDOT computed data. This gives an estimate that is 18.3% less than the WisDOT computation of 3.642 billions of VMT. The WisDOT estimates are based on the sampling the link volumes for USH, 8TH, and CTH. This implies potential error in sampling the average link volume. The WisDOT estimate of heavy truck VMT cannot be tabulated by the three trip types, I-I, I-E ('||'&'||'pound;-I), and E-E. In contrast, the GM forecasting model shows that the proportion ofE-E VMT out of total VMT is 21.24%. In addition, tabulation of heavy truck VMT by route functional class shows that the proportion of truck traffic traversing the freeways and expressways is 76.5%. Only 14.1% of total freeway truck traffic is I-I trips, while 80% of total collector truck traffic is I-I trips. This implies that freeways are traversed mainly by I-E and E-E truck traffic while collectors are used mainly by I-I truck traffic. Other tabulations such as average heavy truck speed by trip type, average travel distance by trip type and the VMT distribution by trip type, route functional class and travel speed are useful information for highway planners to understand the characteristics of statewide heavy truck trip patternS. Heavy truck volumes for the target year 2010 are forecasted by using the GM truck forecasting model. Four scenarios are used. Fo~ better forecasting, ground count- based segment adjustment factors are developed and applied. ISH 90 '||'&'||' 94 and USH 41 are used as example routes. The forecasting results by using the ground count-based segment adjustment factors are satisfactory for long range planning purposes, but additional ground counts would be useful for USH 41. Sensitivity analysis provides estimates of the impacts of the alternative growth rates including information about changes in the trip types using key routes. The network'||'&'||'not;based GMcan easily model scenarios with different rates of growth in rural versus . . urban areas, small versus large cities, and in-state zones versus external stations. cities, and in-state zones versus external stations.

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