• Title/Summary/Keyword: Cycle change-over

Search Result 206, Processing Time 0.027 seconds

A development of hierarchical bayesian model for changing point analysis at watershed scale (유역단위에서의 연강수량의 변동점 분석을 위한 계층적 Bayesian 분석기법 개발)

  • Kim, Jin-Guk;Kim, Jin-Young;Kim, Yoon-Hee;Kwon, Hyun-Han
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
    • /
    • v.50 no.2
    • /
    • pp.75-87
    • /
    • 2017
  • In recent decades, extreme events have been significantly increased over the Korean Peninsula due to climate variability and climate change. The potential changes in hydrologic cycle associated with the extreme events increase uncertainty in water resources planning and designing. For these reasons, a reliable changing point analysis is generally required to better understand regime changes in hydrologic time series at watershed scale. In this study, a hierarchical changing point analysis approach that can apply in a watershed scale is developed by combining the existing changing point analysis method and hierarchical Bayesian method. The proposed model was applied to the selected stations that have annual rainfall data longer than 40 years. The results showed that the proposed model can quantitatively detect the shift in precipitation in the middle of 1990s and identify the increase in annual precipitation compared to the several decades prior to the 1990s. Finally, we explored the changes in precipitation and sea level pressure in the context of large-scale climate anomalies using reanalysis data, for a given change point. It was concluded that the identified large-scale patterns were substantially different from each other.

Climatic Changes and Geographical Characteristics of Solar Term Temperatures in the Korean Peninsula (한반도 절기 기온의 기후적 변화와 지리적 특성)

  • PARK, Sun-Yurp;LEE, Su-Kyung
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
    • /
    • v.22 no.3
    • /
    • pp.65-81
    • /
    • 2019
  • The twenty-four Solar Terms are Chinese traditional astronomical divisions that describe seasonal cycles of the year. Based on the analyses of meteorological data during 1979~2018, study results showed that the temperatures of the Solar Terms had increased in general in the Korean Peninsula. In North Korea, temperature increases were observed on 21 Solar Terms, and their seasonal mean temperatures were increased by $0.87^{\circ}C$, $1.19^{\circ}C$, $1.45^{\circ}C$, and $0.64^{\circ}C$ on average in spring, summer, fall, and winter, respectively. The duration of summer has lengthened due to the temperature rise in fall, and the magnitude of temperature change was greater in summer compared to winter. As for South Korea, increases in temperature were observed on 18 Solar Terms, and the temperature changes were more pronounced in fall and winter than spring and summer. The Great Snow temperature decreased more than any other Solar Terms during the study period, and this temperature change was observed both in North and South Koreas. The Great Cold, which represents the coldest day of the year, showed a significant temperature increase of $3.08^{\circ}C$, while the Slight Heat had a marginal temperature increase of $0.29^{\circ}C$. The hottest day and the first day of frost tended to come later than the Great Heat and the Frost's Decent. By contrast, the coldest day tended to occur later than the Great Cold in the study area. On average over the entire study period, the climatic fitness of the Great Heat and the Frost's Decent was higher in North Korea, and that of the Great Cold was higher in South Korea, respectively.

An Analysis on the Effect of Japanese Monetary Policy in 21C (21c 일본 통화정책 효과에 대한 분석)

  • Yoon, Hyung-Mo
    • International Area Studies Review
    • /
    • v.20 no.1
    • /
    • pp.105-125
    • /
    • 2016
  • The expansionary monetary policy was practiced after 2001 in Japan to treat the deflation spiral, and reduced only the nominal interest rates and domestic household demand. One of the most serious factors for this failure was the change of private sector's expectancy. This paper has studied the effect of Japanese monetary policy in 21c., with empirical research based on a renewed macroeconomic model and the VAR. The empirical analysis shows that the effect of monetary policy on the national income during 2001.01-2015.03 is weaker than that of 1985.01-1994.04. Money volume has a diminutive effect on the growth of GDP within a short term after 2001. The change in the expectations of the private sectors might have been the cause of ineffectiveness of the expansive monetary policy. Economic agents learned from the past Japanese financial crisis that an expansive monetary policy increased the inflation rate and caused the 'bubbles to burst' afterwards. The VAR analysis says that the effectiveness of monetary policy on the economic depression declined over the past 20 years and the expansion of money volume has no influence on exchange rate and net export. This means that the expansive monetary policy lost its effect on net export and national income steadily. Monetary policy makers have to recognize this fact, and to consider another anti-cycle political instrument, i.e. the fiscal policy with government debt.

Effect of Gamma Irradiation on the Quality of Bulgogi Sauce (감마선 조사가 소불고기 양념의 품질특성에 미치는 영향)

  • Lee, Young-Chun;Kim, Soo-Hyun;Oh, Sang-Suck
    • Korean Journal of Food Science and Technology
    • /
    • v.33 no.3
    • /
    • pp.327-332
    • /
    • 2001
  • Attempts were made to investigate the effect of gamma irradiation and heat treatment on quality changes of Bulgogi sauce during the storage at 4 and $20^{\circ}C$. Total acidity, Surface color, brix, microbial growth and sensory quality of test products were evaluated during storage. Total acidity of sauce did not change during storage at $4^{\circ}C$, whereas those of control and 4 kGy groups changed significantly during storage at $20^{\circ}C$. Gamma irradiation and heat treatment had little effect on brix of the suace during storage period. Surface color of control and 4 kGy group significantly changed during storage, especially at $20^{\circ}C$. Sucrose contents in sauce decreased during storage, while glucose and fructose contents increased. Sensory quality of sauces stored at $4^{\circ}C$ for 12 weeks was similar, except the control. Control and 4 kGy treated sauces stored at $20^{\circ}C$ for 6 week had detectable levels of off-flavor. Colifrom bacteria were not detected in sauces treated by either heat or gammma-ray. Total acrobic increases in colony counts were slower at $4^{\circ}C$. Yeasts or molds were not detected in sauces treated by heat or gamma-ray over 7-10 kGy. These results indicated that gamma irradiation over 7kGy or heat treatment of the sauce maintained acceptable quality.

  • PDF

Changes in Meteorological Variables by SO2 Emissions over East Asia using a Linux-based U.K. Earth System Model (리눅스 기반 U.K. 지구시스템모형을 이용한 동아시아 SO2 배출에 따른 기상장 변화)

  • Youn, Daeok;Song, Hyunggyu;Lee, Johan
    • Journal of the Korean earth science society
    • /
    • v.43 no.1
    • /
    • pp.60-76
    • /
    • 2022
  • This study presents a software full setup and the following test execution times in a Linux cluster for the United Kingdom Earth System Model (UKESM) and then compares the model results from control and experimental simulations of the UKESM relative to various observations. Despite its low resolution, the latest version of the UKESM can simulate tropospheric chemistry-aerosol processes and the stratospheric ozone chemistry using the United Kingdom Chemistry and Aerosol (UKCA) module. The UKESM with UKCA (UKESM-UKCA) can treat atmospheric chemistryaerosol-cloud-radiation interactions throughout the whole atmosphere. In addition to the control UKESM run with the default CMIP5 SO2 emission dataset, an experimental run was conducted to evaluate the aerosol effects on meteorology by changing atmospheric SO2 loading with the newest REAS data over East Asia. The simulation period of the two model runs was 28 years, from January 1, 1982 to December 31, 2009. Spatial distributions of monthly mean aerosol optical depth, 2-m temperature, and precipitation intensity from model simulations and observations over East Asia were compared. The spatial patterns of surface temperature and precipitation from the two model simulations were generally in reasonable agreement with the observations. The simulated ozone concentration and total column ozone also agreed reasonably with the ERA5 reanalyzed one. Comparisons of spatial patterns and linear trends led to the conclusion that the model simulation with the newest SO2 emission dataset over East Asia showed better temporal changes in temperature and precipitation over the western Pacific and inland China. Our results are in line with previous finding that SO2 emissions over East Asia are an important factor for the atmospheric environment and climate change. This study confirms that the UKESM can be installed and operated in a Linux cluster-computing environment. Thus, researchers in various fields would have better access to the UKESM, which can handle the carbon cycle and atmospheric environment on Earth with interactions between the atmosphere, ocean, sea ice, and land.

A Study on the Use of GIS-based Time Series Spatial Data for Streamflow Depletion Assessment (하천 건천화 평가를 위한 GIS 기반의 시계열 공간자료 활용에 관한 연구)

  • YOO, Jae-Hyun;KIM, Kye-Hyun;PARK, Yong-Gil;LEE, Gi-Hun;KIM, Seong-Joon;JUNG, Chung-Gil
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
    • /
    • v.21 no.4
    • /
    • pp.50-63
    • /
    • 2018
  • The rapid urbanization had led to a distortion of natural hydrological cycle system. The change in hydrological cycle structure is causing streamflow depletion, changing the existing use tendency of water resources. To manage such phenomena, a streamflow depletion impact assessment technology to forecast depletion is required. For performing such technology, it is indispensable to build GIS-based spatial data as fundamental data, but there is a shortage of related research. Therefore, this study was conducted to use the use of GIS-based time series spatial data for streamflow depletion assessment. For this study, GIS data over decades of changes on a national scale were constructed, targeting 6 streamflow depletion impact factors (weather, soil depth, forest density, road network, groundwater usage and landuse) and the data were used as the basic data for the operation of continuous hydrologic model. Focusing on these impact factors, the causes for streamflow depletion were analyzed depending on time series. Then, using distributed continuous hydrologic model based DrySAT, annual runoff of each streamflow depletion impact factor was measured and depletion assessment was conducted. As a result, the default value of annual runoff was measured at 977.9mm under the given weather condition without considering other factors. When considering the decrease in soil depth, the increase in forest density, road development, and groundwater usage, along with the change in land use and development, and annual runoff were measured at 1,003.5mm, 942.1mm, 961.9mm, 915.5mm, and 1003.7mm, respectively. The results showed that the major causes of the streaflow depletion were lowered soil depth to decrease the infiltration volume and surface runoff thereby decreasing streamflow; the increased forest density to decrease surface runoff; the increased road network to decrease the sub-surface flow; the increased groundwater use from undiscriminated development to decrease the baseflow; increased impervious areas to increase surface runoff. Also, each standard watershed depending on the grade of depletion was indicated, based on the definition of streamflow depletion and the range of grade. Considering the weather, the decrease in soil depth, the increase in forest density, road development, and groundwater usage, and the change in land use and development, the grade of depletion were 2.1, 2.2, 2.5, 2.3, 2.8, 2.2, respectively. Among the five streamflow depletion impact factors except rainfall condition, the change in groundwater usage showed the biggest influence on depletion, followed by the change in forest density, road construction, land use, and soil depth. In conclusion, it is anticipated that a national streamflow depletion assessment system to be develop in the future would provide customized depletion management and prevention plans based on the system assessment results regarding future data changes of the six streamflow depletion impact factors and the prospect of depletion progress.

CHANGES IN WATER USE AND MANAGEMENT OVER TIME AND SIGNIFICANCE FOR AUSTRALIA AND SOUTH-EAST ASIA

  • Knight, Michael J.
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society of Soil and Groundwater Environment Conference
    • /
    • 1997.11a
    • /
    • pp.3-31
    • /
    • 1997
  • Water has always played a significant role in the lives of people. In urbanised Rome, with its million people. sophisticated supply systems developed and then fled with the empire. only to be rediscovered later But it was the industrial Revolution commencing in the eighteenth century that ushered in major paradigm shifts In use and altitudes towards water. Rapid and concentrated urbanisation brought problems of expanded demands for drinking supplies, waste management and disease. The strategy of using water from local streams, springs and village wells collapsed under the onslaughts of rising urban demands and pollution due to poor waste disposal practices. Expanding travel (railways. and steamships) aided the spread of disease. In England. public health crises peaks, related to water-borne typhoid and the three major cholera outbreaks occurred in the late eighteenth and early nineteenth century respectively. Technological, engineering and institutional responses were successful in solving the public health problem. it is generally accepted that the putting of water into pipe networks both for a clean drinking supply, as well as using it as a transport medium for removal of human and other wastes, played a significant role in towering death rates due to waterborne diseases such as cholera and typhoid towards the end of the nineteenth century. Today, similar principles apply. A recent World Bank report Indicates that there can be upto 76% reduction in illness when major water and sanitation improvements occur in developing countries. Water management, technology and thinking in Australia were relatively stable in the twentieth century up to the mid to late 1970s. Groundwater sources were investigated and developed for towns and agriculture. Dams were built, and pipe networks extended both for supply and waste water management. The management paradigms in Australia were essentially extensions of European strategies with the minor adaptions due to climate and hydrogeology. During the 1970s and 1980s in Australia, it was realised increasingly that a knowledge of groundwater and hydrogeological processes were critical to pollution prevention, the development of sound waste management and the problems of salinity. Many millions of dollars have been both saved and generated as a consequence. This is especially in relation to domestic waste management and the disposal of aluminium refinery waste in New South Wales. Major institutional changes in public sector water management are occurring in Australia. Upheveals and change have now reached ail states in Australia with various approaches being followed. Market thinking, corporatisation, privatisation, internationalisation, downsizing and environmental pressures are all playing their role in this paradigm shift. One casualty of this turmoil is the progressive erosion of the public sector skillbase and this may become a serious issue should a public health crisis occur such as a water borne disease. Such crises have arisen over recent times. A complete rethink of the urban water cycle is going on right now in Australia both at the State and Federal level. We are on the threshold of significant change in how we use and manage water, both as a supply and a waste transporter in Urban environments especially. Substantial replacement of the pipe system will be needed in 25 to 30 years time and this will cost billions of dollars. The competition for water between imgation needs and environmental requirements in Australia and overseas will continue to be an issue in rural areas. This will be especially heightened by the rising demand for irrigation produced food as the world's population grows. Rapid urbanisation and industrialisation in the emerging S.E Asian countries are currently producing considerable demands for water management skills and Infrastructure development. This trend e expected to grow. There are also severe water shortages in the Middle East to such an extent that wars may be fought over water issues. Environmental public health crises and shortages will help drive the trends.

  • PDF

A Study on Recent Research Trend in New Product Development Using Keyword Network Analysis (키워드 네트워크 분석을 이용한 NPD 연구의 진화 및 연구동향)

  • Pyun, JeBum;Jeong, EuiBeom
    • Journal of Korea Society of Industrial Information Systems
    • /
    • v.23 no.5
    • /
    • pp.119-134
    • /
    • 2018
  • Today, many firms face the environment of high uncertainty and severe competition due to the rapid technology development and the diverse needs of customers. In the business environment, one of the most important ways to gain sustainable competitive advantage and future growth engine is related to NPD (New Product Development), which is a very important issue for practice and academia. Thus, this study intends to provide new values to practitioners and researchers related to NPD by analyzing current research trends and future trends in NPD field. For this, we bibliometrically analyzed keyword networks which consist of keywords that were already published in the eminent journals from Scopus database to generate insights that have not been captured in the previous reviews on the topic. As a result, we could understand the extant research streams in NPD field, and suggest the changes of specific research topics based on the connected relationships among keywords over the time. In addition, we also foresaw the general future research trends in NPD field based on the keywords according to preferential attachment processes. Through this study, it was confirmed that NPD keyword network is a small world network that follows the distribution of power law and the growth of network is formed by link formation by keyword preferential attachment. In addition, through component analysis and centrality analysis, keywords such as Innovation, New product innovation, Risk management, Concurrent engineering, Research and development, and Product life cycle management are highly centralized in NPD keyword network. On the other hand, as a result of examining the change of preferential attachment of keywords over the time, we suggested the required new research direction including i) NPD collaboration with suppliers, ii) NPD considering market uncertainty, iii) NPD considering convergence with the other academic areas like technology management and knowledge management, iv) NPD from SME(Small and medium enterprises) perspective. The results of this study can be used to determine the research trends of NPD and the new research themes for interdisciplinary studies with other disciplines.

Seasonal Changes in Biochemical Component of the Adductor Muscle, Visceral Mass and Foot Muscle of Corbicula japonica, in Relation to Gonad Developmental Phases (한국 기수산 일본재첩 (Corbicula japonica)의 생식소 발달단계에 따른 폐각근, 내장낭 및 족부 근육의 생화학적 성분의 계절적 변화)

  • Chung, Ee-Yung;Kim, Jong-Bae;Kwak, Oh-Yeol;Lee, Chang-Hoon
    • The Korean Journal of Malacology
    • /
    • v.20 no.2
    • /
    • pp.111-120
    • /
    • 2004
  • We investigated the reproductive cycle of Corbicula japonica with its gonadal development by histological observations, and the seasonal changes in biochemical mass and foot muscle of the adductor muscle, visceral mass and foot muscle of the clam by biochemical analysis, from January to December, 2003. The reproductive cycle of this species can be classified into five successive stages: early active stage (February to April), late active stage (April to July), ripe stage (June to August), partially spawned stage (July to September) and spent/inactive stage (September to March). According to ANOVA test, there were significant differences (p < 0.05) in total protein, total lipid and glycogen contents among months for all of the visceral mass, adductor muscle and foot muscle. Total protein content was highest in adductor muscle, while lowest in visceral mass. There was no correlation in total protein content between visceral mass and adductor muscle (p = 0.208). However, strong positive correlation was found between adductor muscle and foot muscle (r = 0.769, p < 0.001). In visceral mass, total lipid content was the highest; it was 2 or 3-fold higher than in adductor muscle or foot muscle. The monthly change was also most dynamic in visceral mass. It decreased from January to March (early active stage), and reached maximum in April (late active stage). From May to August (ripe and partially spawned stage), it dradually decreased and then increased again until October (spent/inactive stage). Multiple comparisons showed that total lipid content in visceral mass between all of the adjacent two months was significaltly different (p < 0.05). There were strong negative correlations in total lipid content between visceral mass and adductor muscle (r = 0.687, p < 0.001), and between visceral mass and foot muscle (r = 0.473, p = 0.008). Changes of glycogen content were more or less similar to the changes of lipid contents in visceral mass, adductor muscle and foot muscle, except for April. In April, glycogen content in visceral mass was over four times higher than that in adductor muscle or foot muscle. There was a positive correlation in glycogen content between adductor muscle and foot muscle (r = 0.686, p < 0.001). Especially, total lipid content showed a negative correlation between the adductor muscle and visceral mass. Therefore, these results indicate that the nutrient content of the adductor muscle, visceral muscle and foot muscle changed in response to gonadal energy needs.

  • PDF

Compensation Criteria for Investigation Services and Strengthening Normative Force Plans for Detailed Qualification Criteria for Examination of Archaeological Heritage (매장문화재 조사용역 대가기준과 적격심사 세부기준 제도의 규범력 강화 방안)

  • Choi, Min-jeong
    • Korean Journal of Heritage: History & Science
    • /
    • v.52 no.2
    • /
    • pp.240-253
    • /
    • 2019
  • Archaeological heritages are precious cultural relics and public assets that must be preserved, conserved, and shared with people all over the world. Investigating archaeological heritage is valuable and plays an important role for the public good; our ancestors' cultures can be restored, and it helps with developing a clear understanding of the cultural and social aspects of a historical period as well as teaches about historical factors unreported in the literature. One of the most basic and important conditions necessary for recognizing the value and importance of archaeological heritage investigation, expertise, and quality improvement is to establish detailed criteria for investigation services and the qualification examination of archaeological heritage. Observation of detailed criteria and the qualification examination of archaeological heritage can partially demonstrate society's recognition of strengthening transparency, public property, and the objectivity of the investigation of archaeological heritage. However, the detailed criteria for investigation services and the qualification examination of archaeological heritage currently implemented as administrative rules are neither followed by all institutes in the public and private sectors nor the government. Thus, there are serious problems in terms of the effectiveness and stability of institutions. The detailed criteria for the qualification examination breach the principle of statutory reservation, the principle of statutory regulation, and regulations on the announcement and management of orders and rules. Non-compliance with compensation criteria for investigation services or with detailed criteria for the qualification examination of archaeological heritage will be one of the reasons for the failure of the investigation foundation for archaeological heritage in the future. That is, it will result in the expansion, reproduction, and repetition of a vicious cycle of conflict between developers, who are the decision-makers responsible for selecting an investigating organization for archaeological heritage and determining the cost, and investigating organizations. This includes the impractical shortening of investigation periods and reducing costs by developers, distrust of the values and the importance of investigations of archaeological heritage, a decrease in quality, accidents caused by a lack of safety, a lack of occupational ethics, and non-recruitment of new experts, etc. Therefore, it is necessary to change the structure from a vicious cycle to a virtuous cycle, and promote the enactment of regulations that will ensure effectiveness and stability in the process of attaining the goals of the institution and application of the institution, as well as the continuous advancement of work to fill the gaps with reality.