• Journal of Distribution Science
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• v.11 no.10
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• pp.55-62
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• 2013

Purpose - The purpose of this study is to suggest a risk factor that significantly explains foreign currency risk premia. In recent years, some studies have found that the performance of the simultaneous consumption risk model improves considerably when tested on foreign currency portfolios, which are constructed based on the international interest rates differentials. However, this paper focuses on the long-run consumption risk factor. In our empirical research, we found that the real excess returns of high interest rate currency portfolios depreciate on average, when the future American long-run consumption growth rate appears low. This makes the high interest rate currency portfolios have relatively high risk premia. Meanwhile, the real excess returns of low interest rate currency portfolios appreciate on average, under the same conditions, which results in relatively low risk premia for these portfolios. Therefore, this long-run consumption risk factor might explain why low interest rate currencies do not appreciate as much as the interest rate differential, and why high interest rate currencies do not depreciate as much as the interest rate differential. Research design, data, methodology - In our explanation, we provide new evidence on the success of long-run consumption risks in currency risk premia by focusing on the long-run consumption risks borne by American representative investors. To uncover the hidden link between exchange rates and long-run consumption growth, we set the eight currency portfolios as our basic assets, which have been built based on the foreign interest rates of eighty countries. As these eight currency portfolios are rebalanced every year, the first group always contains the lowest interest rate currencies, and the last group contains the highest interest rate currencies. Against these basic eight currency portfolios, we estimate the long-run consumption risk model. We use recursive utility framework and the stochastic discount factor that depends on the present value of expected future consumption growth rates. We find that our model is optimized in the two-year period of constructing the durable consumption expectation factor. Our main results surprisingly surpass the performance of the existing benchmark simultaneous consumption model in terms of R², relatively risk aversion coefficient γ, and p-value of J-test. Results - The performance of our model is superior. R², relatively risk aversion coefficient γ, and p-value of J-test of our long-run durable consumption model are 90%, 93%, and 65.5%, respectively, while those of EZ-DCAPM are 87%, 113%, and 62.8%, respectively. Thus, we can speculate that the risk premia in foreign currency markets have been determined by the long-run consumption risk. Conclusions - The aggregate long-run consumption growth risk explains a large part of the average change in the real excess returns of foreign currency portfolios. The real excess returns of high interest rate currency portfolios depreciate on average when American long-run consumption growth rate is low, and the real excess returns of low interest rate currency portfolios appreciate under the same conditions. Thus, the low interest rate currency portfolios allow investors to hedge against aggregate long-run consumption growth risk.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.31 no.2
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• pp.103-114
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• 2015

The exchange rate volatility during the global financial crisis in 2007-2009 led Korean shipbuilding companies to face currency risk. The use of foreign currency derivatives to take a risk in financial exposure affects them significantly. This research analyzes how the use of foreign currency derivatives affects the Korean shipbuilding industry in relation to its foreign sales by company type and over time, especially before and after the crisis period. It is based on statistical data presented by KOSHIPA and KOSIC in 2001-2014. The results of the analysis show that there is a significant relationship between foreign currency derivatives and foreign currency exposure for all firm sizes and years, but no relationship between them overtime.

• International Commerce and Information Review
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• v.9 no.3
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• pp.151-160
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• 2007

The purpose of this study is to estimate the risk premium hedge ratio in foreign exchange risk of the foreign exchange rate insurance. The applicants of exchange rate insurance and Korea Export Insurance Corporation will be facing the risk in change of currency and guaranteed currency’s swap point upon contract being made. Also upon making decision of hedging exchange rate insurance, the company will need to be aware of the risk causing due to change in swap point.

• Journal of Information Technology Applications and Management
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• v.21 no.4
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• pp.1-13
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• 2014

This study aims to show the risk reduction effects of round-the-clock trading environment. We analyse the trading results of the currency futures contracts in CME Globex which are open 23 hours a day. These include Euro FX, Japanese Yen, Australian Dollar, and British Pound from January 2005 to August 2013. We generate new price series using only daytime prices during about 7-hour period. This hypothetical "G" data series may have greater gap risk than the original "R" data series. Empirical results show the trading risk reduction effects, that is R data series have higher profits and lower risks than G data series.

• International Commerce and Information Review
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• v.9 no.4
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• pp.107-125
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• 2007

With the rapidly increasing of Korean enterprises, the importance of foreign exchange(FX) risk management for the future operation generated from FDI contract is becoming the critical problem of international business. This type of FX risk, called as "economic exposure risk", requires us of the unique risk management principles and techniques. In this paper, we identify the properties of economic exchange rate exposure, analyze the identification and measurement processes of risk sources and strength, and perform the estimation of the main determinants and its profile effects of the invoicing currency for the efficient management of economic FX exposure.

• East Asian Economic Review
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• v.26 no.4
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• pp.279-304
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• 2022

This paper quantitatively analyzes the current status of North Korean consumer payment instruments through a questionnaire survey of 292 North Korean defectors. In the 2010s, it was found that the payment experience ratio of domestic currency cash and grain decreased, while the payment experience ratio of foreign currency cash increased. The use of foreign currency reached a stage where it was spread not only as a store of value but also as a medium of exchange. However, the most frequently used payment instrument by North Korean consumers was still domestic currency cash. By region, in inland urban areas both domestic currency cash and U.S. dollars are used and in the North Korea-China border region both domestic currency cash and Chinese yuan are used, while in inland rural areas dollarization does not occur because both domestic currency cash and grain are used. Meanwhile, despite the stable price trend during 2013-2019, the dollarization hysteresis effect is appearing, and both the purchasing power risk theory and the network externality theory are considered to have explanatory power for the cause. The results of this paper suggest that as dollarization is intensifying, it is expected that more costs such as shortages of commodities will be incurred than in the past if North Korea's de-dollarization policy is reimplemented. Also, in the case of domestic currency cards, which the North Korean authorities introduced in 2015 as part of a means of financial reform, this paper suggests that it may continue to be difficult for domestic currency cards to normalize official finance under the dollarization hysteresis.

• The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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• v.12 no.3
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• pp.285-294
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• 2012

Under conditions of increasing environmental uncertainty, firms' risk management become important. This study examines the impact of foreign currency derivative usage on firm value using 3,004 Korean non-financial firms from 2002 to 2007. The results showed that there was no significant relationship between foreign currency derivative usage and firm value for the whole period and from 2002 to 2004 when exchange rate was relatively less volatile. But form 2005 to 2007 when exchange rate was volatile, foreign currency derivative usage gave significant negative impact on firm value, whereas when contract value was used, the relatinship was significantly positive. These results might be come from the characteristics of contract value and fair value of foreign currency derivatives. increased firm value when contract value was used as foreign currency derivative usage measure. But when fair value was used, there was no significance. For control variables, major shareholders ownership and foreign blockholders ownership was positively related with firm value.

• Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Information and Commucation Sciences Conference
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• 2018.05a
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• pp.127-128
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• 2018

While The transaction on virtual currency is another finacial tech for individuals, it includes a lot of risk. In this point, this research is to perform empirical research on reliability of virtual currency transaction.

• East Asian Economic Review
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• v.18 no.2
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• pp.111-142
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• 2014

We examine whether country fundamentals help explain the cross-section of currency excess returns. For this purpose, we consider fundamental variables such as default risk, foreign exchange rate regime, capital control as well as interest rate in the multi-factor model framework. Our empirical results show that fundamental factors explain a large part of the cross-section of currency excess returns. The zero-intercept restriction of the factor model is not rejected for most currencies. They also reveal that our factor model with country fundamentals performs better than a factor model with usual investment-style factors. Our main empirical results are based on 2001-2010 balanced panel data of 19 major currencies. This paper may fill the gap between country fundamentals and practitioners' strategies on currency investment.

• Journal of Distribution Science
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• v.13 no.2
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• pp.15-24
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• 2015

Purpose - Foreign exchange risk control is in an important component in the international supply chain management. This study shows the importance of the reference period in forecasting future exchange rates with a specific illustration of KIKO currency option contracts, and suggests feasible preventive measures. Research design, data, and methodology - Using monthly Won-Dollar exchange rate data for January 1995~July 2007, I evaluate the statistical characteristics of the exchange rate for two sub-periods; 1) a shorter period after the East Asian financial crisis and 2) a longer period including the financial crisis. The key instrument of analysis is the basic normal distribution theory. Results - The difference in the reference period could lead to an unexpected development in contract implementation and a consequent financial loss. We may avoid foreign exchange loss by using derivatives such as forwards or currency options. Conclusions - We should consider not only level values but also the volatilities of financial variables in making a binding financial contract. Appropriate measures may differ depending on the specific supply chain pattern. We may extend the study with surveys on actual risk measures.