• Economic Analysis
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• v.26 no.2
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• pp.72-113
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• 2020

This study investigates the relationship between mineral exports to China, North Korea's most important source of foreign currency acquisition, and its imports of various items from China from the first quarter of 1995 through to the third quarter of 2019. The results from a cointegration analysis suggest that there exists a long-run equilibrium relationship between mineral exports and imports of food, fuel, and some intermediate goods, such as industrial supplies, parts, and accessories. The results from a vector autoregression using first-differenced variables indicate that the short-run relationship between mineral exports and imports is different between the period before and after the third quarter of 2010. Prior to structural changes, i.e., before the third quarter of 2010, import shocks affected mineral exports. However, after the third quarter of 2010, an increase in mineral exports led to an increase in the import of vehicles, intermediate goods, and luxury goods. This paper shows both the possibilities and the limits that mineral exports can contribute to North Korea's economic growth. The results, which show that mineral exports have a long-run relationship with intermediate goods, such as industrial supplies, parts and accessories, imply that mineral exports to China could have a positive effect on the North Korean economy. However, the fact that mineral exports do not have any significant effect on the import of machinery and equipment, which helps the accumulation of capital formation, shows that mineral exports have a limited effect on inducing long-term growth in the North Korean economy.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.29 no.2
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• pp.129-148
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• 2023

Bitcoin is a blockchain technology-based digital currency that has been recognized as a representative cryptocurrency and a financial investment asset. Due to its highly volatile nature, Bitcoin has gained a lot of attention from investors and the public. Based on this popularity, numerous studies have been conducted on price and trend prediction using machine learning and deep learning. This study employed LSTM (Long Short Term Memory) and CNN (Convolutional Neural Networks), which have shown potential for predictive performance in the finance domain, to enhance the classification accuracy in Bitcoin price trend prediction. XAI(eXplainable Artificial Intelligence) techniques were applied to the predictive model to enhance its explainability and interpretability by providing a comprehensive explanation of the model. In the empirical experiment, CNN was applied to technical indicators and Google trend data to build a Bitcoin price trend prediction model, and the CNN model using both technical indicators and Google trend data clearly outperformed the other models using neural networks, SVM, and LSTM. Then SHAP(Shapley Additive exPlanations) was applied to the predictive model to obtain explanations about the output values. Important prediction drivers in input variables were extracted through global interpretation, and the interpretation of the predictive model's decision process for each instance was suggested through local interpretation. The results show that our proposed research framework demonstrates both improved classification accuracy and explainability by using CNN, Google trend data, and SHAP.

• Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
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• v.28 no.11
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• pp.113-123
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• 2023

This paper introduces the Cherry system, a user-independent blockchain donation system. This is a procedure that is delivered to the beneficiary's bank account through a virtual account when a donor makes a donation, so there is no difference from the existing donation delivery method from the user's point of view However, within the blockchain, Cherry Points, a virtual currency based on the user ID, are issued and delivered to the beneficiary, while all transactions and the beneficiary's usage history are managed on the blockchain. By adopting this method, there was an improvement in blockchain performance, with transaction processing exceeding 1,000 TPS in typical transaction condition and service completion within 21.3 seconds. By applying the automatic influence control algorithm to this system, the influence according to stake, which is an individual donation, is greatly reduced to 0.3 after 2 months, thereby concentrating influence could be controlled automatically. In addition, it was designed to enable micro tracking by adding a tracking function by timestamp to the donation ledger for each individual ID, which greatly improved the transparency in the use of donations. From a service perspective, existing blockchain donation systems were handled as limited donation delivery methods. Since it is a direct service in a user-independent method, convenience has been greatly improved by delivering donations in various forms.

• Korea Trade Review
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• v.48 no.2
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• pp.129-151
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• 2023

This study explores whether market share matters for ERPT and also for the effects of FTA on ERPT among exporting countries in the four major fishery import markets - frozen pollock, frozen mackerel, frozen tuna, and frozen spawn in South Korea. In addition, I investigate whether market share matters for price competition among exporting countries. For this, I estimate the export price equation based on the maximum likelihood method by utilizing data on export price in terms of Korean currency, and the cross rate between South Korea and the exporting countries from 2010:M1 to 2019:M12 for the four major fishery import markets. According to the findings, the market share of exporting countries in the import markets matters for the positive effects of FTA on ERPT; however, it is hard to find the relation between the market share of exporting counties and ERPT. In addition, I find little evidence on the effects of market share on price competition structures among exporting countries. I believe that this study helps domestic fishery producers to understand that ERPT, the effect of FTA on ERPT, and price competition structures among exporting countries would be affected by the market share of each exporting country in the major fishery import markets in South Korea. Also, this study would help domestic fishery producers to think about how to deal with the effects of the change in the exchange rate on fishery markets for each FTA partner according to its market share after FTA is effective.

• Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
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• v.28 no.12
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• pp.249-257
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• 2023

In this paper, we propose ways how portal site POI(Point-of-Interest) contents by analyzing the effect of portal site POI contents attributes on favorability, satisfaction, and visit intention, and to propose a strategic marketing plan using portal site POI contents in restaurants. In this study, a survey was conducted on 300 people who had experience using portal site POI contents. Through prior research, the portal site POI contents attributes were classified into accuracy, authority, aesthetics, and currency. To verify the research hypothesis, single regression analysis and multiple regression analysis were conducted to confirm the relationship between variables. To summarize the core research results, first, the portal site POI contents attribute showed a positive relationship with favorability. Second, it was found that the portal site POI contents attribute had a positive relationship with satisfaction. Third, it was found that favorability had an effect on satisfaction. Fourth, it was found that favorability had an effect on the visit intention. Fifth, satisfaction was found to have an effect on the visit intention. Based on the analysis results, in order to induce customer visits in restaurants, it is necessary to make good use of portal site POI contents to increase user favorability and to allow users to visit stores.

• Information Systems Review
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• v.22 no.1
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• pp.33-57
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• 2020

Although cryptocurrency which can promote innovation in the blockchain ecosystem is published for many useful purposes, in Korea, cryptocurrency is recognized only as a means of investment for the profit. The fact emphasizes only the speculative nature of the cryptocurrency, so investor negates the fundamental purpose of cryptocurrency and hinders innovation in the blockchain ecosystem. The purpose of this study is to investigate the cause of cryptocurrency perception and speculative behavior of domestic cryptocurrency investors from an academic perspective. We use a model that reflects the traditional considerations and cryptocurrency's characteristics in investment. Using the model, we can explain the cause of misperception of cryptocurrency through the theory of bounded rationality. In building the research model, we use variables of venture and angel investor's consideration used in investment decisions and collect the keywords from indexes of whitepaper to reflect the properties of cryptocurrency. This study mentions that, due to the imitations presented by Simon, individuals are forced to perceive cryptocurrency as a means of speculation and to make irrational decisions that impair ecosystem health. We analyze whether there is a significant difference in rationality in decision made by the sample under limited knowledge and imperfect information constraints. As a result, imperfect information constraints led investors to consider only irrational criteria in decision making. From this result, this study suggests that information asymmetry needs to be relaxed so that investment can be pursued together with rational investment and development of blockchain ecosystem. In addition, the industry can capture strategic insights for successful financing through ICO by enabling better understanding of investor decision-making.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Environmental Restoration Technology
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• v.26 no.6
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• pp.33-50
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• 2023

This study is to propose the ecosystem service valuation method as a complementary or alternative tool to overcome the limitations of the contingent valuation method(CVM), typically used to assess social benefits in preliminary feasibility studies. With an increasing interest in natural and environmental restoration projects, we assessed social benefits with theses CVM and ecosystem service valuation method from a case of Janghang wetland restoration project and compared the extent of the two social benefits. For quantitative evaluation of ecosystem services, the biophysical quantity for each ecosystem service indicator was calculated and then converted into currency (KRW) units to estimate the economic value of ecosystem services. The four ecosystem regulating service indicators were selected including greenhouse gas capture/storage, air pollution, water quantity and quality regulation. The amounts of CO₂ sequestration and storage as a ecosystem's greenhouse gas regulating service in the study area were 73.04 tCO₂/yr and 5,867.53 tCO₂/yr respectively. The reduction of SO₂, one of air pollutant gases by ecosystems was calculated to be 180.27 kg/yr, the reduction of NO₂ to be 378.90 kg/yr, and the reduction of fine dust (PM10) to be 9,713.92 kg/yr. The amount of freshwater regulating service by the ecosystem was estimated to be 459,394,319ℓ/yr, and the amount of nitrogen in freshwater removed by the ecosystem was 78.00kg/yr. Study results show that the benefits derived from the CVM were KRW 227.8 billion over the 30-year analysis period and those from the ecosystem service valuation method were KRW 41.4 billion for regulatory services and KRW 148.8 billion for cultural services, totaling KRW 189.5 billion. With KRW 184.8 billion of the total costs, the benefit/cost ratio using the CVM was 1.23 and that with the ecosystem service valuation method was 1.03. This study implications include that the CVM and ecosystem service valuation method can be applied together to assess and compare social benefits for natural and environmental restoration projects.

• Journal of Arbitration Studies
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• v.20 no.2
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• pp.173-198
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• 2010

The purpose of this paper is to research on the liability for the space damage and the settlement of the dispute with reference to the space activity under the international space treaty and national space law of Korea. The United Nations has adopted five treaties relating to the space activity as follows: The Outer Space Treaty of 1967, the Rescue and Return Agreement of 1968, the Liability Convention of 1972, the Registration Convention of 1974, and the Moon Treaty of 1979. All five treaties have come into force. Korea has ratified above four treaties except the Moon Treaty. Korea has enacted three national legislations relating to space development as follows: Aerospace Industry Development Promotion Act of 1987, Outer Space Development Promotion Act of 2005, Outer Space Damage Compensation Act of 2008. The Outer Space Treaty of 1967 regulates the international responsibility for national activities in outer space, the national tort liability for damage by space launching object, the national measures for dispute prevention and international consultation in the exploration and use of outer space, the joint resolution of practical questions by international inter-governmental organizations in the exploration and use of outer space. The Liability Convention of 1972 regulates the absolute liability by a launching state, the faulty liability by a launching state, the joint and several liability by a launching state, the person claiming for compensation, the claim method for compensation, the claim period of compensation, the claim for compensation and local remedy, the compensation amount for damage by a launching state, the establishment of the Claims Commission. The Outer Space Damage Compensation Act of 2008 in Korea regulates the definition of space damage, the relation of the Outer Space Damage Compensation Act and the international treaty, the non-faulty liability for damage by a launching person, the concentration of liability and recourse by a launching person, the exclusion of application of the Product Liability Act, the limit amount of the liability for damage by a launching person, the cover of the liability insurance by a launching person, the measures and assistance by the government in case of occurring the space damage, the exercise period of the claim right of compensation for damage. The Liability Convention of 1972 should be improved as follows: the problem in respect of the claimer of compensation for damage, the problem in respect of the efficiency of decision by the Claims Commission. The Outer Space Damage Compensation Act of 2008 in Korea should be improved as follows: the inclusion of indirect damage into the definition of space damage, the change of currency unit of the limit amount of liability for damage, the establishment of joint and several liability and recourse right for damage by space joint launching person, the establishment of the Space Damage Compensation Review Commission. The 1998 Final Draft Convention on the Settlement of Disputes Related to Space Activities of 1998 by ILA regulates the binding procedure and non-binding settlement procedure for the disputes in respect of space activity. The non-binding procedure regulates the negotiation or the peaceful means and compromise for dispute settlement. The binding procedure regulates the choice of a means among the following means: International Space Law Court if it will be established, International Court of Justice, and Arbitration Court. The above final Draft Convention by ILA will be a model for the innovative development in respect of the peaceful settlement of disputes with reference to space activity and will be useful for establishing the frame of practicable dispute settlement. Korea has built the space center at Oinarodo, Goheung Province in June 2009. Korea has launched the first small launch vehicle KSLV-1 at the Naro Space Center in August 2009 and June 2010. In Korea, it will be the possibility to be occurred the problems relating to the international responsibility and dispute settlement, and the liability for space damage in the course of space activity. Accordingly the Korean government and launching organization should make the legal and systematic policy to cope with such problems.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• v.14 no.1
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• pp.147-165
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• 1992

This paper analyzes the macroeconomic effects of elections on the Korean economy and their future ramifications. It measures the shocks to the Korean economy caused by elections by taking the average of sample forecast errors from four major elections held in the 1980s. The seven variables' Bayesian Vector Autoregression Model which includes the Monetary Base, Industrial Production, Consumption, Consumer Price, Exports, and Investment is based on the quarterly time series data starting from 1970 and is updated every quarter before forecasts are made for the next quarter. Because of this updating of coefficients, which reflects in part the rapid structural changes of the Korean economy, this study can capture the shock effect of elections, which is not possible when using election dummies with a fixed coefficient model. In past elections, especially the elections held in the 1980s, $M_2$ did not show any particular movement, but the currency and base money increased during the quarter of the election was held and the increment was partly recalled in the next quarter. The liquidity of interest rates as measured by corporate bond yields fell during the quarter the election and then rose in the following quarter, which is somewhat contrary to the general concern that interest rates will increase during election periods. Manufacturing employment fell in the quarter of the election because workers turned into campaigners. This decline in employment combined with voting holiday produce a sizeable decline in industrial production during the quarter in which elections are held, but production catches up in the next quarter and sometimes more than offsets the disruption caused during the election quarter. The major shocks to price occur in the previous quarter, reflecting the expectational effect and the relaxation of government price control before the election when we simulate the impulse responses of the VAR model, imposing the same shocks that was measured in the past elections for each election to be held in 1992 and assuming that the elections in 1992 will affect the economy in the same manner as in the 1980s elections, 1992 is expected to see a sizeable increase in monetary base due to election and prices increase pressure will be amplified substantially. On the other hand, the consumption increase due to election is expected to be relatively small and the production will not decrease. Despite increased liquidity, a large portion of liquidity in circulation being used as election funds will distort the flow of funds and aggravate the fund shortage causing investments in plant and equipment and construction activities to stagnate. These effects will be greatly amplified if elections for the head of local government are going to be held this year. If mayoral and gubernatorial elections are held after National Assembly elections, their effect on prices and investment will be approximately double what they normally will have been have only congressional and presidential elections been held. Even when mayoral and gubernatorial elections are held at the same time as congressional elections, the elections of local government heads are shown to add substantial effects to the economy for the year. The above results are based on the assumption that this year's elections will shock the economy in the same manner as in past elections. However, elections in consecutive quarters do not give the economy a chance to pause and recuperate from past elections. This year's elections may have greater effects on prices and production than shown in the model's simulations because campaigners' return to industry may be delayed. Therefore, we may not see a rapid recall of money after elections. In view of the surge in the monetary base and price escalation in the periods before and after elections, economic management in 1992 should place its first priority on controlling the monetary aggregate, in particular, stabilizing the growth of the monetary base.

• The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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• v.8 no.1
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• pp.179-197
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• 1991

선도환의 가격을 결정하는 접근방법에는 2차자산(derivative assets)이라는 선도계약의 기본특성에 기초한 재정거래(arbitrage)에 의한 방법이 가장 많이 이용되고 있다. 재정거래방식에는 선도환과 현물외환가격간의 상호관련성에 의하여 선도환가격을 이자율평가설(covered interest rate parity : CIRP), 즉 현물가격과 양국간의 이자율차이의 합으로 표시하고 있다. 특히 현물가격과 이자율은 모두 현재시점에서 의사결정자에게 알려져 있기때문에 선도환가격은 확실성하에서 결정되어 미래에 대한 예측이나 투자자의 위험회피도와는 관계없이 결정된다는 것이 특징이다. 이자율평가설에 관한 많은 실증연구는 거래 비용을 고려한 경우 현실적으로 적절하다고 보고 있다(Frenkel and Levich ; 1975, 1977). 다른 방법으로는 선도환의 미래예측기능에만 촛점을 맞추어 가격결정을 하는 투기, 예측접근방법(speculative efficiency approach : 이하에서는 SEA라 함)이 있다. 이 방법 중에서 가장 단순한 형태로 표시된 가설, 즉 '선도환가격은 미래기대현물가격과 같다'는 가설은 대부분의 실증분석에서 기각되고 있다. 이에 따라 SEA에서는 선도환가격이 미래에 대한 기대치뿐만 아니라 위험프리미엄까지 함께 포함하고 있다는 새로운 가설을 설정하고 이에 대한 실증분석을 진행한다. 이 가설은 이론적 모형에서 출발한 것이 아니기 때문에, 특히 기대치와 위험프레미엄 모두가 측정 불가능하다는 점으로 인하여 실증분석상 많은 어려움을 겪게 된다. 이러한 어려움을 피하기 위하여 많은 연구에서는 이자율평가설을 이용하여 선도환가격에 포함된 위험프레미엄에 대해 추론 내지 그 행태를 설명하려고 한다. 이자율평가설을 이용하여 분석모형을 설정하고 실증분석을 하는 것은 몇가지 근본적인 문제점을 내포하고 있다. 먼저, 앞서 지적한 바와 같이 이자율평가설을 가정한다는 것은 SEA에서 주된 관심이 되는 미래예측이나 위험프레미엄과는 관계없이 선도가격이 결정 된다는 것을 의미한다. 따라서 이자율평가설을 가정하여 설정된 분석모형은 선도환시장의 효율성이나 균형가격결정에 대한 시사점을 제공할 수 없다는 것을 의미한다. 즉, 가정한 시장효율성을 실증분석을 통하여 다시 검증하려는 것과 같다. 이러한 개념적 차원에서의 문제점 이외에도 실증분석에서의 추정상의 문제점 또한 존재한다. 대부분의 연구들이 현물자산의 균형가격결정모형에 이자율평가설을 추가로 결합하기 때문에 이러한 방법으로 설정한 분석모형은 그 기초가 되는 현물가격모형과는 달리 자의적 조작이 가능한 형태로 나타나며 이를 이용한 모수의 추정은 불필요한 편기(bias)를 가지게 된다. 본 연구에서는 이러한 실증분석상의 편기에 관한 문제점이 명확하고 구체적으로 나타나는 Mark(1985)의 실증연구를 재분석하고 실증자료를 통하여 위험회피도의 추정치에 편기가 발생하는 근본원인이 이자율평가설을 부적절하게 사용하는데 있다는 것을 확인 하고자 한다. 실증분석결과는 본문의 <표 1>에 제시되어 있으며 그 내용을 간략하게 요약하면 다음과 같다. (A) 실증분석모형 : 본 연구에서는 다기간 자산가격결정모형중에서 대표적인 Lucas (1978)모형을 직접 사용한다. $$1={\beta}\;E_t[\frac{U'(C_{t+1})\;P_t\;s_{t+1}}{U'(C_t)\;P_{t+1}\;s_t}]$$ (2) $U'(c_t)$와 $P_t$는 t시점에서의 소비에 대한 한계효용과 소비재의 가격을, $s_t$와 $f_t$는 외환의 현물과 선도가격을, $E_t$와 ${\beta}$는 조건부 기대치와 시간할인계수를 나타낸다. Mark는 위의 식 (2)를 이자율평가설과 결합한 다음의 모형 (4)를 사용한다. $$0=E_t[\frac{U'(C_{t+1})\;P_t\;(s_{t+1}-f_t)}{U'(C_t)\;P_{t+1}\;s_t}]$$ (4) (B) 실증분석의 결과 위험회피계수 ${\gamma}$의 추정치 : Mark의 경우에는 ${\gamma}$의 추정치의 값이 0에서 50.38까지 매우 큰 폭의 변화를 보이고 있다. 특히 비내구성제품의 소비량과 선도프레미엄을 사용한 경우 ${\gamma}$의 추정치의 값은 17.51로 비정상적으로 높게 나타난다. 반면에 본 연구에서는 추정치가 1.3으로 주식시장자료를 사용한 다른 연구결과와 비슷한 수준이다. ${\gamma}$추정치의 정확도 : Mark에서는 추정치의 표준오차가 최소 15.65에서 최대 42.43으로 매우 높은 반면 본 연구에서는 0.3에서 0.5수준으로 상대적으로 매우 정확한 추정 결과를 보여주고 있다. 모형의 정확도 : 모형 (4)에 대한 적합도 검증은 시용된 도구변수(instrumental variables)의 종류에 따라 크게 차이가 난다. 시차변수(lagged variables)를 사용하지 않고 현재소비와 선도프레미엄만을 사용할 경우 모형 (4)는 2.8% 또는 2.3% 유의수준에서 기각되는 반면 모형 (2)는 5% 유의수준에서 기각되지 않는다. 위와같은 실증분석의 결과는 앞서 논의한 바와 같이 이자율평가설을 사용하여 균형자산가격 결정모형을 변형시킴으로써 불필요한 편기를 발생시킨다는 것을 명확하게 보여주는 것이다.