• KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
• /
• v.8 no.9
• /
• pp.3016-3033
• /
• 2014

The downlink performance of distributed antenna systems (DAS) with antennas selection is investigated in Rayleigh fading multicell environment, and the corresponding system capacity and bit error rate (BER) analysis are presented. Based on the moment generating function, the probability density function (PDF) and cumulative distribution function (CDF) of the effective signal to interference plus noise ratio (SINR) of the system are first derived, respectively. Then, with the available CDF and PDF, the accurate closed-form expressions of average channel capacity and average BER are further derived for exact performance evaluation. To simplify the expression, a simple closed-form approximate expression of average channel capacity is obtained by means of Taylor series expansion, with the performance results close to the accurate expression. Besides, the system outage capacity is analyzed, and an accurate closed-form expression of outage capacity probability is derived. These theoretical expressions can provide good performance evaluation for DAS downlink. It can be shown by simulation that the theoretical analysis and simulation are consistent, and DAS with antenna selection outperforms that with conventional blanket transmission. Moreover, the system performance can be effectively improved as the number of receive antennas increases.

• Journal of Korean Tunnelling and Underground Space Association
• /
• v.24 no.1
• /
• pp.1-13
• /
• 2022

A weighted linear combination of seismic fragility models previously developed for cut-and-cover railway tunnels was presented and the appropriateness of the combined model was evaluated. The seismic fragility function is expressed in the form of a cumulative probability function of the lognormal distribution based on the peak ground acceleration. The model uncertainty can be reduced by combining models independently developed. Equal weight is applied to four models. The new seismic fragility function was developed for each damage level by determining the median and standard deviation, which are model metrics. Comparing fragility curves developed for other bored tunnels, cut-and-cover tunnels for high-speed railway system have a similar level of fragility. We postulated that this is due to the high seismic design standard for high-speed railway tunnel.

• Atmosphere
• /
• v.34 no.1
• /
• pp.23-34
• /
• 2024

The Korea Meteorological Administration has improved medium-range weather forecasts by implementing post-processing methods to minimize numerical model errors. In this study, we employ a statistical correction technique known as the minimum continuous ranked probability score (CRPS) to refine medium-range forecast guidance. This technique quantifies the similarity between the predicted values and the observed cumulative distribution function of the Unified Model Ensemble Prediction System for Global (UM EPSG). We evaluated the performance of the medium-range forecast guidance for surface air temperature and relative humidity, noting significant enhancements in seasonal bias and root mean squared error compared to observations. Notably, compared to the existing the medium-range forecast guidance, temperature forecasts exhibit 17.5% improvement in summer and 21.5% improvement in winter. Humidity forecasts also show 12% improvement in summer and 23% improvement in winter. The results indicate that utilizing the minimum CRPS for medium-range forecast guidance provide more reliable and improved performance than UM EPSG.

• Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
• /
• v.17 no.3
• /
• pp.188-201
• /
• 2005

This is the first part of a two-part paper which describes comparison of reliability design methods by application to Donghae Harbor Breakwaters. This paper, Part 1, is restricted to stability of armor blocks, while Part 2 deals with sliding of caissons. Reliability design methods have been developed fur breakwater designs since the mid-1980s. The reliability design method is classified into three categories depending on the level of probabilistic concepts being employed. In the Level 1 method, partial safety factors are used, which are predetermined depending on the allowable probability of failure. In the Level 2 method, the probability of failure is evaluated with the reliability index, which is calculated using the means and standard deviations of the load and resistance. The load and resistance are assumed to distribute normally. In the Level 3 method, the cumulative quantity of failure (e.g. cumulative damage of armor blocks) during the lifetime of the breakwater is calculated without assumptions of normal distribution of load and resistance. Each method calculates different design parameters, but they can be expressed in terms of probability of failure so that tile difference can be compared among the different methods. In this study, we applied the reliability design methods to the stability of armor blocks of the breakwaters of Donghae Harbor, which was constructed by traditional deterministic design methods to be damaged in 1987. Analyses are made for the breakwaters before the damage and after reinforcement. The probability of failure before the damage is much higher than the target probability of failure while that for the reinforced breakwater is much lower than the target value, indicating that the breakwaters before damage and after reinforcement were under- and over-designed, respectively. On the other hand, the results of the different reliability design methods were in fairly good agreement, confirming that there is not much difference among different methods.

• Journal of Korean Society for Atmospheric Environment
• /
• v.18 no.2
• /
• pp.113-126
• /
• 2002

This study was carried out to evaluate the temporal (daily, weekly, and seasonal) variations of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) concentrations at a road-side site in a heavy-traffic central area of Metropolitan Taegu. Ambient air sampling was undertaken continuously for 14 consecutive days in each of four seasons from the spring of 1999 to the winter of 2000. The VOC samples were collected using adsorbent tubes, and were determined by thermal desorption coupled with GC/MS analysis. A total of 10 aromatic VOCs of environmental concern were determined, including benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene, m＋p-xylenes, styrene, o-xylene, 1,3,5-trimethylbenzene, 1,2,4-trimethylbenzene, and naphthalene. Among 10 target VOCs, the most abundant compounds appeared to be toluene (1.5 ∼ 102 ppb) and xylenes (0.1 ∼ 114 ppb), while benzene levels were in the range of 0.3 ∼6 ppb. It was found that the general trends of VOC levels were significantly dependent on traffic conditions at the sampling site since VOC concentrations were at their maximum during rush hours (AM 7∼9 and PM 7 ∼9). However, some VOCs such as toluene, xylenes, and ethylbenzene were likely to be affected by a number of unknown sources other than vehicle exhaust, being attributed to the use of paints, and/or the evaporation of solvents used nearby the sampling site. In some instances, extremely high concentrations were found for these compounds, which can not be explained solely by the impact of vehicle exhaust. The results of this study may be useful for estimating the relative importance of different emission sources in large urban areas. Finally, it was suggested that the median value might be more desirable than the arithmetic mean as a representative value for the VOC data group, since the cumulative probability distribution (n=658) does not follow the normal distribution pattern.

• Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
• /
• v.33 no.7
• /
• pp.29-41
• /
• 2017

There are uncertainties about the seismic load caused by seismic waves, which cannot be predicted due to the characteristics of the earthquake occurrence. Therefore, it is necessary to consider these uncertainties by probabilistic analysis. In this paper, procedures to develop a fragility curve that is a representative method to evaluate the safety of a structure by stochastic analysis were proposed for cut slopes. Fragility curve that considers uncertainties of soil shear strength parameters was prepared by Monte Carlo Simulation using pseudo static analysis. The fragility curve considering the uncertainty of the input ground motion was developed by performing time-history seismic analysis using selected 30 real ground input motions and the Newmark type displacement evaluation analysis. Fragility curves are represented as the cumulative probability distribution function with lognormal distribution by using the maximum likelihood estimation method.

• Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
• /
• v.55 no.2
• /
• pp.164-172
• /
• 2022

Objectives: We aimed to estimate the space-time distribution of the risk of suicide mortality in Iran from 2006 to 2016. Methods: In this repeated cross-sectional study, the age-standardized risk of suicide mortality from 2006 to 2016 was determined. To estimate the cumulative and temporal risk, the Besag, York, and Mollié and Bernardinelli models were used. Results: The relative risk of suicide mortality was greater than 1 in 43.0% of Iran's provinces (posterior probability >0.8; range, 0.46 to 3.93). The spatio-temporal model indicated a high risk of suicide in 36.7% of Iran's provinces. In addition, significant upward temporal trends in suicide risk were observed in the provinces of Tehran, Fars, Kermanshah, and Gilan. A significantly decreasing pattern of risk was observed for men (β, -0.013; 95% credible interval [CrI], -0.010 to -0.007), and a stable pattern of risk was observed for women (β, -0.001; 95% CrI, -0.010 to 0.007). A decreasing pattern of suicide risk was observed for those aged 15-29 years (β, -0.006; 95% CrI, -0.010 to -0.0001) and 30-49 years (β, -0.001; 95% CrI, -0.018 to -0.002). The risk was stable for those aged >50 years. Conclusions: The highest risk of suicide mortality was observed in Iran's northwestern provinces and among Kurdish women. Although a low risk of suicide mortality was observed in the provinces of Tehran, Fars, and Gilan, the risk in these provinces is increasing rapidly compared to other regions.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
• /
• v.55 no.4
• /
• pp.257-266
• /
• 2022

Inundation damage is increasing every year due to localized heavy rain and an increase of rainfall exceeding the design frequency. Accordingly, the importance of hydraulic structures for flood control and defense is also increasing. The hydraulic structures are designed according to its purpose and performance, and the amount of flood is an important calculation factor. However, in Korea, design rainfall is used as input data for hydrological analysis for the design of hydraulic structures due to the lack of sufficient data and the lack of reliability of observation data. Accurate probability rainfall and its temporal distribution are important factors to estimate the design rainfall. In practice, the regression equation of temporal distribution for the design rainfall is calculated using the cumulative rainfall percentage of Huff's quartile method. In addition, the 6^th order polynomial regression equation which shows high overall accuracy, is uniformly used. In this study, the optimized regression equation of temporal distribution is derived using the variable selection method according to the principle of parsimony in statistical modeling. The derived regression equation of temporal distribution is verified through the significance test. As a result of this study, it is most appropriate to derive the regression equation of temporal distribution using the stepwise selection method, which has the advantages of both forward selection and backward elimination.

• Journal of Radiation Protection and Research
• /
• v.29 no.3
• /
• pp.187-196
• /
• 2004

The health effects resulting from severe accidents of typical 1,000MWe KSNP(Korea Standard Nuclear Plant) PWR and typical 600MWe CANDU(CANada Deuterium Uranium) plants were estimated and compared. The population distribution of the site extending to 80km for both site were considered. The releaese fraction for various source term categories(STC) and core inventories were used in the estimation of the health effects risks by using the MACCS2(MELCOR Accident Consequence Code System2) code. Individuals are assumed to evacuate beyond 16km from the site. The health effects considered in this comparative study are early and cancer fatality risk, and the results are presented as CCDF(Complementary Cumulative Distribution Function) curves considering the occurrence probability of each STC's. According to the results, the early and cancer fatality risks of PHWR plants we lower than those of PWR plants. This is attributed the fact that the amount of radioactive mateials that released to the atmosphere resulting from the postulated severe accidents of PHWR plants are smaller than that of PWR plants. And, the dominating initiating event of STC that shows maximum early and cancer fatality risk is SGTR(Steam Generator Tube Rupture) for both plants. Therefore, the appropriated actions must be taken to reduce the occurrence probability and the amounts of radioactive materials released to the environment in order to protect the public for both PWR and PHWR plants.

• Atmosphere
• /
• v.29 no.3
• /
• pp.257-267
• /
• 2019

This study is to assess the applicability of the Extreme Forecast Index (EFI) algorithm of the ECMWF seasonal forecast system to the Global Seasonal Forecasting System version 5 (GloSea5), operational seasonal forecast system of the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA). The EFI is based on the difference between Cumulative Distribution Function (CDF) curves of the model's climate data and the current ensemble forecast distribution, which is essential to diagnose the predictability in the extreme cases. To investigate its applicability, the experiment was conducted during the heat-wave cases (the year of 1994 and 2003) and compared GloSea5 hindcast data based EFI with anomaly data of ERA-Interim. The data also used to determine quantitative estimates of Probability Of Detection (POD), False Alarm Ratio (FAR), and spatial pattern correlation. The results showed that the area of ERA-Interim indicating above 4-degree temperature corresponded to the area of EFI 0.8 and above. POD showed high ratio (0.7 and 0.9, respectively), when ERA-Interim anomaly data were the highest (on Jul. 11, 1994 (> $5^{\circ}C$) and Aug. 8, 2003 (> $7^{\circ}C$), respectively). The spatial pattern showed a high correlation in the range of 0.5~0.9. However, the correlation decreased as the lead time increased. Furthermore, the case of Korea heat wave in 2018 was conducted using GloSea5 forecast data to validate EFI showed successful prediction for two to three weeks lead time. As a result, the EFI forecasts can be used to predict the probability that an extreme weather event of interest might occur. Overall, we expected these results to be available for extreme weather forecasting.