• East Asian Economic Review
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• v.25 no.2
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• pp.205-230
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• 2021

This study examines the impact of the number of coronavirus cases on regime-switching in stock return volatility. This study documents the empirical evidence that the COVID-19 cases had an asymmetric effect on the regime of stock return volatility. When the stock return is in the low volatility regime, the probability of switching to the high volatility regime in the next trading day increases as the number of cumulative cases increases. In contrast, in the high volatility regime, the effect of cumulative cases on the transition probability is not statistically significant. This study also documents the evidence that the government measures against the pandemic contribute to promoting the high volatility regime of the KOSPI during the pandemic. Besides, this study projects future stock prices through the Monte Carlo simulation based on the estimated parameters and the predicted number of the COVID-19 new cases. Under a scenario where the number of new cases rapidly increases, stock price indices in Korea are expected to be in a downward trend over the next three months. On the other hand, under the moderate scenario and the best scenario, the stock indices are likely to continue to rise.

• Journal of muscle and joint health
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• v.30 no.3
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• pp.218-229
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• 2023

Purpose: This study aimed to assess and compare the effectiveness of various fall prevention interventions in hospitals through a network meta-analysis. Methods: A network meta-analysis was conducted using the "netmeta" package in R software (v4.1), employing a frequency method. Odds ratios of fall rates and injurious fall rates were utilized to confirm the effects of interventions for fall prevention. Comparative rankings of these interventions were determined using cumulative probability (P-score). Results: Comparative rankings via cumulative probability (P-scores) revealed individualized education as the most effective intervention for fall incidence (P-Score 87.8%). Followed by fall-preventing sensors (60.9%), multicomponent interventions (47.4%), usual care (33.2%), and environmental modification (20.7%). For fall-related injuries, individualized education ranked highest (P-Score 97.1%), followed by multicomponent interventions (76.0%), usual care (47.6%), environmental modification (24.2%), and fall-preventing sensors (5.1%). Conclusion: This study provides valuable insights into the relative effectiveness of diverse interventions in preventing fall incidence through network meta-analysis. The findings aim to support nurses in making informed decisions when implementing fall prevention strategies in clinical practice.

• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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• v.17 no.3
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• pp.1-8
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• 2016

We propose an adaptive histogram stretching algorithm for application to a car's personal recorder. The algorithm was used for pre-processing to detect the license plate region in an image from a personal recorder. The algorithm employs a Probability Density Function (PDF) and Cumulative Distribution Function (CDF) to analyze the distribution diagram of the images. These two functions are calculated using an image obtained by sampling at a certain pixel interval. The images were subjected to different levels of stretching, and experiments were done on the images to extract their characteristics. The results show that the proposed algorithm provides less deterioration than conventional algorithms. Moreover, contrast is enhanced according to the characteristics of the image. The algorithm could provide better performance than existing algorithms in applications for detecting search regions for license plates.

• Earthquakes and Structures
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• v.17 no.5
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• pp.511-519
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• 2019

The concrete gravity dam is one of the most important parts of the nation's infrastructure. Besides the benefits, the dam also has some potentially catastrophic disasters related to the life of citizens directly. During the lifetime of service, some degradations in a dam may occur as consequences of operating conditions, environmental aspects and deterioration in materials from natural causes, especially from dynamic loads. Cumulative Absolute Velocity (CAV) plays a key role to assess the operational condition of a structure under seismic hazard. In previous researches, CAV is normally used in Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) fields, but there are no particular criteria or studies that have been made on dam structure. This paper presents a method to calculate the limitation of CAV for the Bohyeonsan Dam in Korea, where the critical Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) is estimated from twelve sets of selected earthquakes based on High Confidence of Low Probability of Failure (HCLPF). HCLPF point denotes 5% damage probability with 95% confidence level in the fragility curve, and the corresponding PGA expresses the crucial acceleration of this dam. For determining the status of the dam, a 2D finite element model is simulated by ABAQUS. At first, the dam's parameters are optimized by the Minitab tool using the method of Central Composite Design (CCD) for increasing model reliability. Then the Response Surface Methodology (RSM) is used for updating the model and the optimization is implemented from the selected model parameters. Finally, the recorded response of the concrete gravity dam is compared against the results obtained from solving the numerical model for identifying the physical condition of the structure.

• Journal of the Korean Operations Research and Management Science Society
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• v.14 no.2
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• pp.67-74
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• 1989

This paper considers single-product production and inventory management problem where cumulative demands up to each time period are mutually independent random variables(known) having continuous probability distributions and the associated cost-minimizing production schedule (when to produce and how much to produce) need be determined in rolling horizon environment. For the problem, both the production cost and the inventory holding and backlogging costs are included in the whole system cost. The probability distributions of these costs are expressed in terms of random demands, and utilized to exploit a solution procedure for a production schedule which minimizes the expected unit time system cost and also reduces the probability of rist that, for the first-period of each production cycle (rolling horizon), the cost of the "production" option will exceed that of the "non-production" one. Numerical examples are presented for the solution procedure illustration.cedure illustration.

• Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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• 1987.11a
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• pp.272-277
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• 1987

A probabilistic model to analyze surge voltage waves on a transmission conductor caused by lightning, strokes striking a transmission line tower has been proposed. In this proposed model, a probability apace has been constructed. Based on the constructed probability space, random variables denoting the voltage peaks, time to crest, and time to half have been generated. To know the statistics of surge voltage waves, it suffices to find out the cumulative probability distributions of these random variables. A illustrative numerical example to find out out the distributions of the random variables has been carried out using the Electromagnetic Transient Program(EMTP).

• Journal of Communications and Networks
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• v.18 no.1
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• pp.19-26
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• 2016

In this paper, the performance of dual-hop multi-relay maximum ratio transmission (MRT) over Rayleigh flat fading channels is studied with both conventional (all relays participate the transmission) and opportunistic (best relay is selected to maximize the received signal-to-noise ratio (SNR)) relaying. Performance analysis starts with the derivation of the probability density function, cumulative distribution function and moment generating function of the SNR. Then, both approximate and asymptotic expressions of symbol error rate (SER) and outage probability are derived for arbitrary numbers of antennas and relays. With the help of asymptotic SER and outage probability, diversity and array gains are obtained. In addition, impact of imperfect channel estimations is investigated and optimum power allocation factors for source and relay are calculated. Our analytical findings are validated by numerical examples which indicate that multi-relay MRT can be a low complexity and reliable option in cooperative networks.

• Current Optics and Photonics
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• v.3 no.4
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• pp.311-319
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• 2019

A hybrid free-space-optical/radio-frequency (FSO/RF) communication system is considered, with the help of amplify-and-forward (AF) relaying. We consider various weather conditions to investigate their effects on the system's performance. We begin by obtaining the cumulative distribution function and probability density function of the end-to-end signal-to-noise ratio for the AF dual-hop FSO communication system with RF backup link. Then, these results are used to derive closed-form expressions for the outage probability, average bit-error rate, and average ergodic capacity. The results show that the considered system efficiently employs the complementary nature of FSO and RF links, resulting in impressive performance improvements compared to non-hybrid systems.

• Journal of Wind Energy
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• v.14 no.1
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• pp.37-43
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• 2023

In this study, synthetic time series wind data was generated numerically using a second-order Markov chain. One year of wind data in 2020 measured by the AWS on Wido Island was used to investigate the statistics for measured wind data. Both the transition probability matrix and the cumulative transition probability matrix for annual hourly mean wind speed were obtained through statistical analysis. Probability density distribution along the wind speed and autocorrelation according to time were compared with the first- and the second-order Markov chains with various lengths of time series wind data. Probability density distributions for measured wind data and synthetic wind data using the first- and the second-order Markov chains were also compared to each other. For the case of the second-order Markov chain, some improvement of the autocorrelation was verified. It turns out that the autocorrelation converges to zero according to increasing the wind speed when the data size is sufficiently large. The generation of artificial wind data is expected to be useful as input data for virtual digital twin wind turbines.

• Geomechanics and Engineering
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• v.38 no.1
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• pp.93-106
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• 2024

The present paper investigates the spatial variability effect of soil property on the three-dimensional probabilistic characteristics of the bearing capacity factor (i.e., mean and coefficient of variation) of a circular footing resting on clayey soil where both mean and standard deviation of undrained shear strength increases with depth, keeping the coefficient of variation constant. The mean trend of undrained shear strength is defined by introducing the dimensionless strength gradient parameter. The finite difference method along with the random field and Monte Carlo simulation technique, is used to execute the numerical analyses. The lognormal distribution is chosen to generate random fields of the undrained shear strength. In the study, the potential failure of the structure is represented through the failure probability. The influences of different vertical scales of fluctuation, dimensionless strength gradient parameters, and coefficient of variation of undrained shear strength on the probabilistic characteristics of the bearing capacity factor and failure probability of the footing, along with the probability and cumulative density functions, are explored in this study. The variations of failure probability for different factors of safety corresponding to different parameters are also illustrated. The results are presented in non-dimensional form as they might be helpful to the practicing engineers dealing with this type of problem.