• Advances in concrete construction
• /
• v.9 no.5
• /
• pp.469-478
• /
• 2020

This study aims to establish a new methodological framework for the evaluation of the evolution of the reliability of plain concrete for pavement vs number of cycles under flexural fatigue loading. According to the framework, a new method calculating the reliability was proposed through probability simulation in order to describe a random accumulation of fatigue damage, which combines reliability theory, one-to-one probability density functions transformation technique, cumulative fatigue damage theory and Weibull distribution theory. Then the statistical analysis of flexural fatigue performance of cement concrete tested was carried out utilizing Weibull distribution. Ultimately, the reliability for the tested cement concrete was obtained by the proposed method. Results indicate that the stochastic evolution behavior of concrete materials under fatigue loading can be captured by the established framework. The flexural fatigue life data of concrete at different stress levels is well described utilizing the two-parameter Weibull distribution. The evolution of reliability for concrete materials tested in this study develops by three stages and may corresponds to develop stages of cracking. The proposed method may also be available for the analysis of degradation behaviors under non-fatigue conditions.

• Journal of The Korean Astronomical Society
• /
• v.27 no.2
• /
• pp.103-117
• /
• 1994

To extend the work of Gott, Park, and Lee (1989), statistical properties of gravitational lensing in a wide variety of cosmological models involving non-zero cosmological constant is investigated, using the redshifts of both lens and source and observed angular separation of images for gravitational lens systems. We assume singular isothermal sphere as lensing galaxy in homogenous and isotropic Friedmann­Lemaitre-Robertson- Walker universe, Schechter luminosity function, standard angular diameter distance formula and other galaxy parameters used in Fukugita and Turner (1991). To find the most adequate flat cosmological model and put a limit on the value of dimensionless cosmological constant $\lambda_0$, the mean value of the angular separation of images, probability distribution of angular separation and cumulative probability are calculated for given source and lens redshifts and compared with the observed values through several statistical methods. When there is no angular selection effect, models with highest value of $\lambda_0$ is preferred generally. When the angular selection effects are considered, the preferred model depends on the shape of the selection functions and statistical methods; yet, models with large $\lambda_0$ are preferred in general. However, the present data can not rule out any of the flat universe models with enough confidence. This approach can potentially select out best model. But at the moment, we need more data.

• Journal of the Korean Institute of Educational Facilities
• /
• v.24 no.6
• /
• pp.27-36
• /
• 2017

Educational facilities have an affect to make a decently learning environment. After constructed, it needs a maintenance plan to keep the performance or function which provide the repair time, repair scope and ratio. But the fundamental data are so insufficient that the field worker can't provide the maintenance plan and has no choice use the other data which concerned with apartment or office building. Above all, the service life is indispensible to make a repair plan because the repair time and scope would be provided within the service life. This study aimed at providing the method to make a service life of component in educational facilities and applying the method into the roof proof and floor finishing. Results are shown that first, it is important to set the $1^{st}$ repair time after constructed. when it proposes the three ways with the probability approach, choice probability model and cumulative cost function. Second, the service life of roof proof is provided with about 35 years. In addition, the service life of the floor finishing is about 40 years. These result would be utilized to conduct the repair plan under the service life.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
• /
• v.14 no.3
• /
• pp.205-210
• /
• 2008

In recent years, the crisis of energy is growing seriously and also the contamination of ecology has been reverberated as international problem. The social concern about energy crisis has been growing for the last several years and also the interest in new and renewable energy has been increased. The probability of wind power resource over Saemangeum is reviewed with the data of Gunsan weather station. Through this study, it is cleared that the Saemangeum area has fluent wind power source to design the wind farm in Korea. According to calculation results, it is possible to predict the wind velocity density around the Saemangeum area using the shape factor as a parameter.

• Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Building Construction Conference
• /
• 2011.05a
• /
• pp.153-155
• /
• 2011

In this study, an insulation panel system that has the most excellent economic feasibility in a long term LCC viewpoint in some analysis, which determine a proper insulation panel construction method for the out wall of structures, is analyzed. As a result, in the case of a deterministic LCC analysis, the initial investment cost represents about 80,000Won/㎡ for extrusion ceramic panels. Also, although the costs of maintenance, disassembling, and disposal show no large differences compared with other panel systems, metal panels indicate a bit higher than other panel systems about 1.5 times. In the probability density function that analyzes the variation of the probabilistic cost between panel systems and its economic feasibility, metal panels show the highest cost distribution and extrusion and stone panels represent low cost distributions. In the cumulative function distribution that composites probability density functions, the extrusion ceramic panel represents the most excellent economic feasibility and reliability and that is also the most superior subject among the subjects used in this study.

• Environmental Engineering Research
• /
• v.24 no.1
• /
• pp.150-158
• /
• 2019

Soil contaminated with heavy metals from artisanal gold mining in Anka Local Government Area in Northwestern Nigeria was investigated to evaluate the human health risk as a result of heavy metals. Measured concentration of heavy metals and exposure parameters were used to estimate human carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic risk. GIS-based Kriging method was utilized to create a prediction maps of human health risks and probability maps of heavy metals concentrations exceeding their threshold limits. Hazard index calculation showed that 21 out of 23 locations are posing non-cancer risk for children. Adults and children are at high cancer risk in all locations as the total cancer risk exceeded $1{\times}10^{-6}$ (the lower limit CTR value). Kriging model showed that only a very small area in Anka has a hazard index of less than unity and cumulative target risk of less than $1{\times}10^{-4}$, indicating a significant carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic risks for children. The probability of heavy metals to exceed their threshold concentrations around the study area was also found to be high.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
• /
• v.55 no.5
• /
• pp.1924-1934
• /
• 2023

In this study, the probabilistic fatigue life model for Ni-base alloys was developed based on the Weibull distribution using statistical analysis of fatigue data reported in NUREG/CR-6909 and the new fatigue data of Alloy 52M/152 and 82/182. The developed Weibull model can consider right-censored data (i.e., non-failed data) and quantify the improved safety (or reliability) based on the level of failure probability. The overall margin in the current fatigue design limit model (ASME design curve + NUREG/CR-6909 F_en model) is similar to that of the Weibull model with a cumulative failure probability of approximately 2.5%. The margin in the current fatigue design limit model demonstrated inconsistencies for the Ni-base alloy weld data, whereas the Weibull model showed a consistent margin. Therefore, the Weibull model can systematically mitigate the excessive safety margin.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural Science
• /
• v.50 no.3
• /
• pp.427-435
• /
• 2023

This study was conducted to evaluate the spraying performance according to the flight conditions of agricultural drones for the development of a variable control system. The analyzed flight conditions comprised six factors: spraying direction, flight speed, altitude, wind speed, wind direction, and rotor rotational speed. The ratio of the area sprayed on the water-sensitive paper was used as the coverage, and the distribution and amount of the coverage were evaluated. The coverage distribution based on the distance from the drone was used to evaluate a spray pattern, and the distribution was expressed as a Gaussian function approximation. In addition, the probability distribution based on coverage was expressed as the cumulative probability via Gamma function approximation to analyze the spraying efficiency in the target area. The results showed that the averaged coverage decreased significantly as the flight speed and wind speed increased, and the wind direction changed the spray pattern without a coverage decrease. This study contributes to the development of a control technique for the precision control system of agricultural drones.

• Economic and Environmental Geology
• /
• v.46 no.4
• /
• pp.313-327
• /
• 2013

In the study, three-dimensional geostatistical simulations on McMurray Formation which is the largest oil sand reservoir in Athabasca area, Canada were performed, and the optimal site for steam assisted gravity drainage (SAGD) was selected based on the predictions. In the selection, the factors related to the vertical extendibility of steam chamber were considered as the criteria for an optimal site. For the predictions, 110 borehole data acquired from the study area were analyzed in the Markovian transition probability (TP) framework and three-dimensional distributions of the composing media were predicted stochastically through an existing TP based geostatistical model. The potential of a specific medium at a position within the prediction domain was estimated from the ensemble probability based on the multiple realizations. From the ensemble map, the cumulative thickness of the permeable media (i.e. Breccia and Sand) was analyzed and the locations with the highest potential for SAGD applications were delineated. As a supportive criterion for an optimal SAGD site, mean vertical extension of a unit permeable media was also delineated through transition rate based computations. The mean vertical extension of a permeable media show rough agreement with the cumulative thickness in their general distribution. However, the distributions show distinctive disagreement at a few locations where the cumulative thickness was higher due to highly alternating juxtaposition of the permeable and the less permeable media. This observation implies that the cumulative thickness alone may not be a sufficient criterion for an optimal SAGD site and the mean vertical extension of the permeable media needs to be jointly considered for the sound selections.

• Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
• /
• v.25 no.2
• /
• pp.52-62
• /
• 2013

A stochastic Markov process (MP) model has been developed for evaluating the probability of failure of the armor unit of rubble-mound breakwaters as a function of time. The mathematical MP model could have been formulated by combining the counting process or renewal process (CP/RP) on the load occurrences with the damage process (DP) on the cumulative damage events, and applied to the armor units of rubble-mound breakwaters. Transition probabilities have been estimated by Monte-Carlo simulation (MCS) technique with the definition of damage level of armor units, and very well satisfies some conditions constrained in the probabilistic and physical views. The probabilities of failure have been also compared and investigated in process of time which have been calculated according to the variations of return period and safety factor being the important variables related to design of armor units of rubble-mound breakwater. In particular, it can be quantitatively found how the prior damage levels can effect on the sequent probabilities of failure. Finally, two types of methodology have been in this study proposed to evaluate straightforwardly the repair times which are indispensable to the maintenance of armor units of rubble-mound breakwaters and shown several simulation results including the cost analyses.