• Title/Summary/Keyword: Cumulative Risk

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An Application of a Baseline Checklist for Risk Assessment of Cumulative Trauma Disorders in Shipyard Workers (범용 위험도 평가서를 이용한 조선업체 작업에서의 누적외상성질환에 대한 인간공학적 분석)

  • Park, Donghyun;Han, Sang-Hwan
    • Journal of Korean Society of Occupational and Environmental Hygiene
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    • v.8 no.1
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    • pp.24-35
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    • 1998
  • Cumulative trauma disorders(CTDs) have been a growing problems for US and European industries with higher incidence rate every year. The increase and their associated costs has led companies to form committes and implement programs to address this problem. In our country, we have just started to recognize and to work on the problems in industry. This study conducted an ergonomic analysis for typical jobs of ship building industry which was not usually surveyed for CTD problem. A baseline CTD checklist which was supposed to do a risk assessment was developed and applied in this study. Initially, we considered five major parts in the checklist which consisted of personal, frequency, posture, force, and miscellaneous information. Most jobs in ship building industry were much different from typical assembly work and VDT work that have been major part of the previous CTD studies. Specifically, job characteristics in terms of frequency and posture were quite different. There were relatively long cycle time, awkward postures for whole body (not just for upper extremities). Also, CTD risk scores based on checklist were a lot higher than the scores for VDT jobs which was a case of preceding application of the checklist. Specifically, grinding jobs turned out to be the most risky one in terms of CTDs. In conclusion, usual CTD prevention guidelines are not likely to he effective in this type of industry. An individual job based interventions are strongly suggested to have a good control of CTD problems in ship building industry.

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Statistical analysis of economic activity state of workers with industrial injuries using a competing risk model (경쟁위험분석을 이용한 산재 근로자의 원직장복귀에 대한 연구)

  • Doh, Gippeum;Kim, Sooyeon;Kim, Yang-Jin
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.26 no.6
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    • pp.1271-1281
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    • 2015
  • Competing risk analysis is widely applied to analyze a failure time with more than two causes. This paper discusses the application of a competing risk model to a economic activity state of workers with occupational injuries. In particular, main interest is to estimate the distribution of restarting time two kinds of economic activities, (i) returning to original working place and (ii) finding a new job. In this paper, we applied a cumulative incidence function to evaluate their patterns under several individual factors and working place's factor. Furthermore, a subdistributional regression model is applied to estimate the effect of these factors on the returning time. According to result, worker with higher education, younger age and longer working period had a higher chance to return an original working place while one with more severe injuries and skilled laborer had longer returning time to an original working place.

A Information Data-based Analysis of Robbery Crimes in America (정보데이터를 활용한 미국 강도죄의 분석)

  • Park, Jong-Ryeol;Noe, Sang-Ouk
    • Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
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    • v.17 no.3
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    • pp.167-174
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    • 2012
  • This study focused on the people harmed by violent offenders, especially by rubberies. Trends capture changes in victimization rates overtime, while patterns indicate connections between the attributes of victims and the frequency with which they are targeted. Data from the UCR and the NCVS indicate that many types of victimization are taking place less frequently since their peak years in the late 1980s and early 1990s. Cumulative risks indicate the odds of being victimized over the course of a lifetime. Differential risks underscore which categories of people are victimized more often than others.

The Study of Muscle Fatigue and Risks of Musculoskeletal System Disorders from Text Inputting on a Smartphone

  • Ko, Kyung;Kim, Hee-Soo;Woo, Ji-Hea
    • Journal of the Ergonomics Society of Korea
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    • v.32 no.3
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    • pp.273-278
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    • 2013
  • Objective: This study aims to analyze and evaluate fatigue in upper trapezius muscles of adults when inputting text on a smart phone, thereby examining the risk of cumulative trauma disorders in the musculoskeletal system of the upper extremity. Method: Forty-five healthy adults were divided equally into three groups: a smartphone group, a notebook group, and a desktop group. A surface electromyogram was placed on the upper trapezius muscle of each participant, after which they inputted text for ten minutes within an ergonomic setting; their side posture was recorded on video and analyzed. Results: The spectral edge frequency values for the smartphone group, as recorded from the upper right trapezius muscles on the surface electromyogram, showed a significant decrease(p<.05). Regarding the RULA, all three groups had results indicating "action level 2". Conclusion: All three groups had results indicating "action level 2" according to the RULA, which means that additional research on the posture of the participants while performing tasks is necessary, and their posture needs to be corrected. In particular, the smartphone group has the highest levels of fatigue in the upper trapezius muscles, suggesting that the task of inputting text on a smartphone is a high risk for causing cumulative trauma disorders.

Analysis of the Problems related to the Cumulative Trauma Disorders at Manufacturing Workplace and Development of a Risk Factor Checklist (제조업에서 발생하는 누적외상성질환 관련 문제점 분석 및 위험요인 점검표의 개발)

  • Park, Hee-Sok;Lee, Yun-Geun;Yim, Sang-Hyuk
    • Journal of Korean Institute of Industrial Engineers
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    • v.24 no.4
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    • pp.503-517
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    • 1998
  • Cumulative trauma disorders(CTDs) of the upper extremities among the workers at manufacturing workplace have become a serious problem in Korea. However, most of the studies on the CTDs carried out in this country have focused on the Video Display Terminal(VDT) operators. In fact, high rates of the CTDs have been reported for telecommunication employees, and the CTDs associated with VDT use in telecommunication industries pose great health and social problems in Korea today. On the other hand, there are few studies on the CTDs among the manufacturing workers, and the severity of the problem was much under-reported. This study reports and discusses the results of the literature review on the cross-sectional studies of the CTDs, along with the analysis of the problems associated with identification, medical examinations, and ergonomic evaluation of the disorders. Also a checklist was developed for the use of quick screening tool for risk factor analysis. Consistency of the checklist was validated with the field studies of several manufacturing workplace. Current issues and suggestions for future ergonomic studies are also addressed.

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Clinical Grading System, Surgical Outcomes and Prognostic Analysis of Cranial Base Chordomas

  • Wang, Benlin;Tian, Fengxuan;Tong, Xiaoguang
    • Journal of Korean Neurosurgical Society
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    • v.65 no.3
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    • pp.469-478
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    • 2022
  • Objective : Cranial base chordomas are rare, but their treatment is challenging. Tumor recurrence is still common despite improvements in microsurgical techniques and postoperative radiotherapy. We retrospectively analyzed the course of treatment, overall survival, and recurrence/progression of chordomas over the past 10 years. Methods : We retrospectively reviewed 50 patients who underwent surgery at Tianjin Huanhu Hospital between 2010 and 2020 and were pathologically diagnosed with chordomas. Tumor resection was performed within the maximum safe range in all patients; the extent of resection was evaluated by imaging; and the incidence of complications, recurrence or progression, and overall survival were assessed. Results : Fifty patients were divided into the low-risk group (LRG) and high-risk group (HRG) based on the cranial chordoma grading system (CCGS). The Karnofsky Performance Scale scores and gross total resection rate of the LRG were significantly higher than those of the HRG (p<0.05). The incidence of complications and mortality in the LRG were lower than those of HRG. The analysis of cumulative survival and cumulative recurrence free survival/progression free survival (RFS/PFS) showed no statistical differences in the extent of resection for survival, recurrence, or progression. Univariate and multivariate analyses showed that Ki-67 was significantly associated with tumor recurrence and was an independent hazard factor (p=0.02). Conclusion : The CCGS can help neurosurgeons anticipate surgical outcomes. Pathological results are important in evaluating the possibility of tumor recurrence, and postoperative radiotherapy improves overall survival and RFS/PFS.

Confidence bands for survival curve under the additive risk model

  • Song, Myung-Unn;Jeong, Dong-Myung;Song, Jae-Kee
    • Journal of the Korean Statistical Society
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    • v.26 no.4
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    • pp.429-443
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    • 1997
  • We consider the problem of obtaining several types of simultaneous confidence bands for the survival curve under the additive risk model. The derivation uses the weak convergence of normalized cumulative hazard estimator to a mean zero Gaussian process whose distribution can be easily approxomated through simulation. The bands are illustrated by applying them from two well-known clinicla studies. Finally, simulation studies are carried outo to compare the performance of the proposed bands for the survival function under the additive risk model.

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Earthquake risk assessment of concrete gravity dam by cumulative absolute velocity and response surface methodology

  • Cao, Anh-Tuan;Nahar, Tahmina Tasnim;Kim, Dookie;Choi, Byounghan
    • Earthquakes and Structures
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    • v.17 no.5
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    • pp.511-519
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    • 2019
  • The concrete gravity dam is one of the most important parts of the nation's infrastructure. Besides the benefits, the dam also has some potentially catastrophic disasters related to the life of citizens directly. During the lifetime of service, some degradations in a dam may occur as consequences of operating conditions, environmental aspects and deterioration in materials from natural causes, especially from dynamic loads. Cumulative Absolute Velocity (CAV) plays a key role to assess the operational condition of a structure under seismic hazard. In previous researches, CAV is normally used in Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) fields, but there are no particular criteria or studies that have been made on dam structure. This paper presents a method to calculate the limitation of CAV for the Bohyeonsan Dam in Korea, where the critical Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) is estimated from twelve sets of selected earthquakes based on High Confidence of Low Probability of Failure (HCLPF). HCLPF point denotes 5% damage probability with 95% confidence level in the fragility curve, and the corresponding PGA expresses the crucial acceleration of this dam. For determining the status of the dam, a 2D finite element model is simulated by ABAQUS. At first, the dam's parameters are optimized by the Minitab tool using the method of Central Composite Design (CCD) for increasing model reliability. Then the Response Surface Methodology (RSM) is used for updating the model and the optimization is implemented from the selected model parameters. Finally, the recorded response of the concrete gravity dam is compared against the results obtained from solving the numerical model for identifying the physical condition of the structure.

Performance Comparison of Cumulative Incidence Estimators in the Presence of Competing Risks (경쟁위험 하에서의 누적발생함수 추정량 성능 비교)

  • Kim, Dong-Uk;Ahn, Chi-Kyung
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.20 no.2
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    • pp.357-371
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    • 2007
  • For the time-to-failure data with competing risks, cumulative incidence functions (CIFs) are commonly estimated using nonparametric methods. If the cases of events due to the cause of primary interest are infrequent relative to other cause of failure, nonparametric methods may result in rather imprecise estimates for CIF. In such cases, Bryant et al. (2004) suggested to model the cause-specific hazard of primary interest parametrically, while accounting for the other modes of failure using nonparametric estimator. We represented the semiparametric cumulative incidence estimator and extended to the model of Weibull and log-normal distribution. We also conducted simulations to access the performance of the semiparametric cumulative incidence estimators and to investigate the impact of model misspecification in log-normal cause-specific hazard model.

Risk assessment of heavy metals in soil based on the geographic information system-Kriging technique in Anka, Nigeria

  • Johnbull, Onisoya;Abbassi, Bassim;Zytner, Richard G.
    • Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.24 no.1
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    • pp.150-158
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    • 2019
  • Soil contaminated with heavy metals from artisanal gold mining in Anka Local Government Area in Northwestern Nigeria was investigated to evaluate the human health risk as a result of heavy metals. Measured concentration of heavy metals and exposure parameters were used to estimate human carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic risk. GIS-based Kriging method was utilized to create a prediction maps of human health risks and probability maps of heavy metals concentrations exceeding their threshold limits. Hazard index calculation showed that 21 out of 23 locations are posing non-cancer risk for children. Adults and children are at high cancer risk in all locations as the total cancer risk exceeded $1{\times}10^{-6}$ (the lower limit CTR value). Kriging model showed that only a very small area in Anka has a hazard index of less than unity and cumulative target risk of less than $1{\times}10^{-4}$, indicating a significant carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic risks for children. The probability of heavy metals to exceed their threshold concentrations around the study area was also found to be high.