• Title/Summary/Keyword: Cumulative Hazard

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Distribution Transformer Statistical Expected Life Evaluation and Removal Adequacy Review (배전 변압기의 통계적 기대 수명 평가 및 초기 고장제거 적정성 검토)

  • Chong-Eun, Cho;Sang-Bong, Kim;On-You, Lee;Kang-Sik, Kim
    • KEPCO Journal on Electric Power and Energy
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    • v.8 no.2
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    • pp.79-86
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    • 2022
  • Recently, the amount of maintenance is increasing due to the aging of power facilities, but the budget is constrained. Therefore, the importance of asset management that selects replacement priorities based on the failure probability and enhances investment effects is increasing. Because the number of distribution transformers is very large, the proportion of investment cost is very high. Therefore, it is important to select the investment priority by evaluating the reliable remaining life based on the failure probability. This paper evaluates the statistical expected life using the failure data of distribution transformers for the last 11 years and the current operation data. The hazard rate of distribution transformer and MV cable was compared with each other and the adequacy of early failure removal was reviewed and the statistical expected life corresponding to the cumulative failure probability B3% was calculated.

Chromosome Aberrations and Sister Chromatid Exchanges of Hospital Workers Exposed to Radiation (방사선취급 병원근무자들의 염색체이상 및 자매염색분체교환 빈도)

  • Cha, Ae-Ri;Kim, Mi-Sun;Hwang, In-Kyung;Lee, Su-Ill;Cho, Byung-Mann;Kim, Don-Kyoun
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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    • v.31 no.4 s.63
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    • pp.616-627
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    • 1998
  • In order to evaluate the cytogenetic hazard among hospital workers potentially exposed to low dose of radiation, the analysis of chromosome aberrations(CA) and sister chromatid exchanges(SCE) in lymphocytes were performed in 79 hospital workers and 79 non-exposed workers. The mean frequency of chromosomal exchange and deletion(respectively, $0.20\times10^{-2}/cell\;and\;0.39\times10^{-2}/cell$) in the exposed group were significantly higher than those$(0.07\times10^{-2}/cell\;and\;0.23\times10^{-2}/cell)$ in control group. The frequency of sister chromatid exchanges was 5.04/cell in the control vs. 6.57/cell in the exposed group. There were also significant differences in the mean frequencies of CA and SCE adjusted for age, sex, smoking, drinking between two groups. There were no evidence of significant increase of CA and SCE according to the department or duration of employment. But the frequency of cells having chromosome aberration was significantly higher in the exposed group than in the control group related to duration of employment. There was no dose-effect relationship between the cumulative doses and the frequency of CA and SCE. But in the case of last 1 yr cumulative dose, there were evidence of significant dose-dependant increase of chromosome type CA and percentage of cells with aberration. The result suggest that there is cytogenetic hazard in risk group like hospital workers handling low dose radiation. And the analysis CA and SCE are useful biological indicators for the exposure of low dose level of radiation.

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Earthquake risk assessment of concrete gravity dam by cumulative absolute velocity and response surface methodology

  • Cao, Anh-Tuan;Nahar, Tahmina Tasnim;Kim, Dookie;Choi, Byounghan
    • Earthquakes and Structures
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    • v.17 no.5
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    • pp.511-519
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    • 2019
  • The concrete gravity dam is one of the most important parts of the nation's infrastructure. Besides the benefits, the dam also has some potentially catastrophic disasters related to the life of citizens directly. During the lifetime of service, some degradations in a dam may occur as consequences of operating conditions, environmental aspects and deterioration in materials from natural causes, especially from dynamic loads. Cumulative Absolute Velocity (CAV) plays a key role to assess the operational condition of a structure under seismic hazard. In previous researches, CAV is normally used in Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) fields, but there are no particular criteria or studies that have been made on dam structure. This paper presents a method to calculate the limitation of CAV for the Bohyeonsan Dam in Korea, where the critical Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) is estimated from twelve sets of selected earthquakes based on High Confidence of Low Probability of Failure (HCLPF). HCLPF point denotes 5% damage probability with 95% confidence level in the fragility curve, and the corresponding PGA expresses the crucial acceleration of this dam. For determining the status of the dam, a 2D finite element model is simulated by ABAQUS. At first, the dam's parameters are optimized by the Minitab tool using the method of Central Composite Design (CCD) for increasing model reliability. Then the Response Surface Methodology (RSM) is used for updating the model and the optimization is implemented from the selected model parameters. Finally, the recorded response of the concrete gravity dam is compared against the results obtained from solving the numerical model for identifying the physical condition of the structure.

Relationship between Progressive Changes in Lamina Cribrosa Depth and Deterioration of Visual Field Loss in Glaucomatous Eyes

  • Kim, You Na;Shin, Joong Won;Sung, Kyung Rim
    • Korean Journal of Ophthalmology
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    • v.32 no.6
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    • pp.470-477
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    • 2018
  • Purpose: To investigate the relationship between the progression of visual field (VF) loss and changes in lamina cribrosa depth (LCD) as determined by spectral-domain optical coherence tomography (SD-OCT) enhanced depth imaging in patients with primary open angle glaucoma (POAG). Methods: Data from 60 POAG patients (mean follow-up, $3.5{\pm}0.7$ years) were included in this retrospective study. The LCD was measured in the optic disc image using SD-OCT enhanced depth imaging scanning at each visit. Change in the LCD was considered to either 'increase' or 'decrease' when the differences between baseline and the latest two consecutive follow-up visits were greater than the corresponding reproducibility coefficient value ($23.08{\mu}m$, as determined in a preliminary reproducibility study). All participants were divided into three groups: increased LCD (ILCD), decreased LCD (DLCD), and no LCD change (NLCD). The Early Manifest Glaucoma Trial criteria were used to define VF deterioration. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis and Cox's proportional hazard models were performed to explore the relationship between VF progression and LCD change. Results: Of the 60 eyes examined, 35.0% (21 eyes), 28.3% (17 eyes), and 36.7% (22 eyes) were classified as the ILCD, DLCD, and NLCD groups, respectively. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis showed a greater cumulative probability of VF progression in the ILCD group than in the NLCD (p < 0.001) or DLCD groups (p = 0.018). Increased LCD was identified as the only risk factor for VF progression in the Cox proportional hazard models (hazard ratio, 1.008; 95% confidence interval, 1.000 to 1.015; p = 0.047). Conclusions: Increased LCD was associated with a greater possibility of VF progression. The quantitative measurement of LCD changes, determined by SD-OCT, is a potential biomarker for the prediction of VF deterioration in patients with POAG.

Cumulative Risk Assessment of Organophosphorus Pesticides in the Diet (식품을 통한 유기인계농약류의 동시노출위해성평가)

  • 이효민;한지연;윤은경;김효미;황인균;최동미;이강봉;원경풍;송인상
    • Journal of Food Hygiene and Safety
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    • v.16 no.1
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    • pp.21-26
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    • 2001
  • Risk assessment traditionally are conducted on individual chemicals; however, humans are exposed to multiple chemicals in daily life. The organophosphorus (OP) pesticides are considered in a single risk assessment because they act by a common mechanism of toxicity, and there is likely to be expose to multiple OP pesticides simultaneously or sequentially. The OP pesticides act by inhibiting the enzyme acetylcholinesterasc (AChE) and have available extensive database. AChE is widely distributed throughout the body, most importantly in the nervous system. Inhibition of AChE results in accumulation of acetylcholine in the nervous system that results in clinical signs of cholinergic toxicity, including increased salivation and lacrimation, nausea and vomiting, muscle fasciculation, lethargy and fatigue, among others. To conduct an exposure assessment for pesticides in the diet, we need to know the food consumption patterns of the populations, and the pesticide residue levels in the foods that are consumed. This study was conducted to identify cumulative dietary risk due to multiple OP pesticides that can be exposed through various foods. Total 22 food samples including cereals, vegetables and fruits were collected randomly two times from food markets in several sites (4 cities). The subjected foods were selected by regarding of highly consumed foods to general Korean people. The 12 OP pesticides including Acephate, Azinphos-methyl, Chlorpyrifos, and Diazinon were monitored. For the exposure assessment, general adult group of 60 kg body weight was regarded as target population and food consumption data suggested by Lee et al. (2000) were used as consumed value of individual food. Analyses of samples for OP pesticides have been carried out according to the multiclass multiresidue analysis method and acephate and methamidophos analysis method of Korea Food Code. In general the levels of OP pesticides found in the food samples were very low or not detected.

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A Study on A, pp.ication of Reliability Prediction & Demonstration Methods for Computer Monitor (Computer용 Monitor에 대한 신뢰성 예측.확인 방법의 응용)

  • 박종만;정수일;김재주
    • Journal of Korean Society for Quality Management
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    • v.25 no.3
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    • pp.96-107
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    • 1997
  • The recent stream to reliability prediction is that it is totally inclusive in depth to consider even the operating and environmental condition at the level of finished goods as well as component itselves. In this study, firstly we present the reliability prediction methods by entire failure rate model which failure rate at the system level is added to the failure rate model at the component level. Secondly we build up the improved bases of reliability demonstration through a, pp.ication of Kaplan-Meier, Cumulative hazard, Johnson's methods as non-parametric and Maximum Likelihood Estimator under exponential & Weibull distribution as parametric. And also present the methods of curve fitting to piecewise failure rate under Weibull distribution, PRST (Probability Ratio Sequential Test), curve fitting to S-shaped reliability growth curve, computer programs of each methods. Lastly we show the practical for determination of optimal burn-in time as a method of reliability enhancement, and also verify the practical usefulness of the above study through the a, pp.ication of failure and test data during 1 year.

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Development of Reliability Analysis System(RAS) with Field Failure Data of Continuously Shipping Products (연속출하제품의 사용현장 데이터를 이용한 신뢰도 분석 시스템 (RAS) 개발)

  • Kwon, Soo-Ho;Yu, Hyun;Lim, Tae-Jin
    • Journal of Korean Society for Quality Management
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    • v.27 no.4
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    • pp.241-255
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    • 1999
  • This paper concerns Reliability Analysis System(RAS) developed by LG Electronics, Inc. for collecting, classifying, and analyzing field failure data. To develop this system, a database for the management of field failure data was built and several functions were included to analyze and assess the product reliability. Nonparametric estimation and cumulative hazard plotting techniques were applied to estimate the reliability for a specific period. This system serves not only engineers in charge of quality but also designers who wish to monitor the reliability of their own products.

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Certification Criteria and Safety Assessment for High Altitude Long Endurance Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (장기체공 무인항공기 기술기준 및 안전성 평가 연구)

  • Ko, Joon Soo;Kim, Kyungmok
    • Journal of Aerospace System Engineering
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    • v.10 no.2
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    • pp.7-13
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    • 2016
  • Multi disciplinary approach for aerodynamics, structure, propulsion, and flight control system is necessary to develop High Altitude Long Endurance Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (HALE UAV). Various HALE UAV development trends are surveyed to understand their operational requirements. Separating the UAV Take Off Weight by 150kg, Airworthiness implementation direction for HALE UAV is studied under the current Airworthiness regulations. NATO STANAG 4671 and STANAG 4703 Airworthiness certification criteria are analyzed, and their applicability was proposed for future HALE UAV development. In addition, minimization of the risk for UAV is studied by considering probability of cumulative catastrophic failure for HALE UAV. This Hazard Risk Index can support the future UAV Airworthiness Certification Criteria.

Confidence bands for survival curve under the additive risk model

  • Song, Myung-Unn;Jeong, Dong-Myung;Song, Jae-Kee
    • Journal of the Korean Statistical Society
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    • v.26 no.4
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    • pp.429-443
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    • 1997
  • We consider the problem of obtaining several types of simultaneous confidence bands for the survival curve under the additive risk model. The derivation uses the weak convergence of normalized cumulative hazard estimator to a mean zero Gaussian process whose distribution can be easily approxomated through simulation. The bands are illustrated by applying them from two well-known clinicla studies. Finally, simulation studies are carried outo to compare the performance of the proposed bands for the survival function under the additive risk model.

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The Confidence Bands for the Survival Function in Random Censorship Model (임의중도절단된 자료에서 생존함수의 동시신뢰대 구성)

  • Lee, Won-Kee;Song, Myung-Unn;Song, Jae-Kee;Park, Hee-Joo
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.9 no.1
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    • pp.37-45
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    • 1998
  • We consider the problem of obtaining the confidence bands for the survival function with incomplete data. It is a rather simple procedure for constructing confidence bands of survival function. This method uses the weak convergence of normalized cumulative hazard estimator to a mean zero Gaussian process whose distribution can be easily approximated through simulation. Finally, we compare the performance of the proposed confidence bands through Monte Carlo simulation and we applied to construct the proposed bands with the Leukemia patient data.

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