• Title/Summary/Keyword: Crisis Management Systems

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Development of Prediction Model of Financial Distress and Improvement of Prediction Performance Using Data Mining Techniques (데이터마이닝 기법을 이용한 기업부실화 예측 모델 개발과 예측 성능 향상에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Raynghyung;Yoo, Donghee;Kim, Gunwoo
    • Information Systems Review
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    • v.18 no.2
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    • pp.173-198
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    • 2016
  • Financial distress can damage stakeholders and even lead to significant social costs. Thus, financial distress prediction is an important issue in macroeconomics. However, most existing studies on building a financial distress prediction model have only considered idiosyncratic risk factors without considering systematic risk factors. In this study, we propose a prediction model that considers both the idiosyncratic risk based on a financial ratio and the systematic risk based on a business cycle. Ultimately, we build several IT artifacts associated with financial ratio and add them to the idiosyncratic risk factors as well as address the imbalanced data problem by using an oversampling technique and synthetic minority oversampling technique (SMOTE) to ensure good performance. When considering systematic risk, our study ensures that each data set consists of both financially distressed companies and financially sound companies in each business cycle phase. We conducted several experiments that change the initial imbalanced sample ratio between the two company groups into a 1:1 sample ratio using SMOTE and compared the prediction results from the individual data set. We also predicted data sets from the subsequent business cycle phase as a test set through a built prediction model that used business contraction phase data sets, and then we compared previous prediction performance and subsequent prediction performance. Thus, our findings can provide insights into making rational decisions for stakeholders that are experiencing an economic crisis.

Does Social Enterprise Provide a Decent Work to Women? (사회적기업은 괜찮은 여성일자리인가?)

  • Kwag, Seon-Hwa
    • Management & Information Systems Review
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    • v.32 no.4
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    • pp.53-79
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    • 2013
  • Social enterprises can be identified roughly as social purpose-oriented business ventures. They often fill the gaps left by governmental and commercial ventures in providing for certain vulnerable sectors of society. Though social enterprises often adopt market mechanisms in their organizational structures, their emphasis on particular social outcomes means that they intentionally pursue double/triple-bottom lines, thus distinguishing them from many traditional for-profit businesses. Among the Korean laborers, women have been hardest hit by the global economic crisis. As the movements have substantially been taken to strengthen women's economic activities in the recent years, many policies are formulated with these trends, connecting women's employment with social enterprises. This study focused on analyzing social enterprises to be friendly and to provide decent work to women. Data were collected from 491 social enterprises and 830 workers. The main results are as follows. First, the women's employment in social enterprises has accounted for a relatively high rate and the women's wage also is similar to men's one. Second, as for work conditions and types, most women have preferred irregular and non-managerial work. Thus, social enterprises have showed a positive response for the women's job opportunities, while social enterprises have had a negative one for enhancing the women's status at the labor market. In conclusion, social enterprises should institutionalize how to provide more stable working condition to women and to improve their's capacity.

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A Quantitative Study on Growth of Social Enterprise in Korea - Focused on Financial Performance during 2007~2010 - (사회적기업의 성장에 관한 양적 분석 - 2007~2010년 경제적 성과를 중심으로 -)

  • Kwag, Seon-Hwa
    • Management & Information Systems Review
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    • v.32 no.1
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    • pp.289-309
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    • 2013
  • Social enterprise has moved from periphery to take center stage. Social enterprises are a truly global phenomenon and associated with solving social problems with business approaches. While the numbers of social enterprises have grown and their impact is likely to continue to do so, it would be dangerous to assume that the revolutionary momentum will automatically continue, because social enterprise faced sustainability challenges. This study collected the data from directory of Korean Social Enterprise to conduct a quantitative research on the growth of social enterprise in South Korea. This study conducted longitudinal analysis of 491 social enterprise certified between 2007 and 2010, of economic performance with financial index and social impact with employment structure. Though global financial crisis, Korean social enterprises show that there is a considerable increase in all of quantitative and qualitative aspects. Korean social enterprises have provided meaningful work to those normally excluded from the labour market and tried to raise their life of working. In the future, Korean social enterprises should find a way to balance social and financial performance and ensure the sustainability of the business.

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The Effect of Corporate Social Responsibility on Purchase Intention - Focused on Anti-Corporate Emotion - (기업의 사회적 책임활동이 구매의도에 미치는 영향 - 반기업정서를 중심으로 -)

  • Kang, Nak-Jung;Cho, Sang-Lee
    • Management & Information Systems Review
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    • v.38 no.1
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    • pp.169-180
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    • 2019
  • The results of the present study on corporate social responsibility activities have different results for each researcher. This is considered to be the influence of the moderated variables depending on the relations among the variables. The purpose of this study is to propose anti-corporate emotion as a variable to moderate the relationship between social responsibility activities and outcome variables and to investigate its influence. The results and implications are as follows. Ethical responsibility activities and discretionary responsibility activities had effects on corporate attitude and corporate attitude affects consumers' purchase intention. This is consistent with many previous studies, which means that it is necessary to create a positive psychology for a firm or product in order to induce consumer behavior. In addition, in the group with high anti-corporate emotions, the effect is not significant even if the company has a lot of discretionary activities, but if the ethical responsibility is done, the negative attitude toward the company can be alleviated even if the anti- corporate emotion is high. This explains why many companies now have social contribution activities as an alternative to reduce the corporate crisis, but the effect is insufficient. Therefore, companies that want to carry out social responsibility activities should be interested first in the ethical management or ethical responsibility activities of companies.

An Information Management Strategy Over Entire Life Cycles of Hazardous Waste Streams (유해폐기물 생애 전주기 흐름 기반 정보 관리 전략)

  • Lee, Sang-hun;Kim, Jungeun
    • Clean Technology
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    • v.26 no.3
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    • pp.228-236
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    • 2020
  • Korea has an economy based on manufacturing industrial fields, which produce high amounts of hazardous wastes, in spite of few landfill candidates, and a significant concern for fine airborne particulates; therefore, traditional waste management is difficult to apply in this country. Moreover, waste collection and accumulation have recently been intensified by the waste import prohibitions or regulations in developing nations, the universalization of delivery services in Korea, and the global COVID-19 crisis. This study thus presents a domestic waste management strategy that aims to address the recent issues on waste. The contents of the strategy as the main results of the study include the (1) improvement of the compatibility of the classification codes between the domestic hazardous waste and the international ones such as those of the Basel Convention; (2) consideration of the mixed hazard indices to represent toxicity from low-content components such as rare earth metals often contained in electrical and electronic equipment waste; (3) management application based on risks throughout the life cycles of waste; (4) establishment of detailed material flow information of waste by integrating the Albaro system, Pollutant Release and Transfer Register (PRTR) system, and online trade databases; (5) real-time monitoring and prediction of the waste movement or discharge using positional sensors and geographic information systems, among others; and (6) selection and implementation of optimal treatment or recycling practices through Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) and clean technologies.

Future Direction of National Health Insurance (국민건강보험 발전방향)

  • Park, Eun-Cheol
    • Health Policy and Management
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    • v.27 no.4
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    • pp.273-275
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    • 2017
  • It has been forty years since the implementation of National Health Insurance (NHI) in South Korea. Following the 1977 legislature mandating medical insurance for employees and dependents in firms with more than 500 employees, South Korea expanded its health insurance to urban residents in 1989. Resultantly, total expenses of the National Health Insurance Service (NHIS) have greatly increased from 4.5 billion won in 1977 to 50.89 trillion won in 2016. With multiple insurers merging into the NHI system in 2000, a single-payer healthcare system emerged, along with separation policy of prescribing and dispensing. Following such reform, an emerging financial crisis required injections from the National Health Promotion Fund. Forty years following the introduction of the NHI system, both praise and criticism have been drawn. In just 12 years, the NHI achieved the fastest health population coverage in the world. Current medical expenditure is not high relative to the rest of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. The quality of acute care in Korea is one of the best in the world. There is no sign of delayed diagnosis and/or treatment for most diseases. However, the NHI has been under-insured, requiring high-levels of out-of-pocket money from patients and often causing catastrophic medical expenses. Furthermore, the current environmental circumstances of the NHI are threatening its sustainability. Low birth rate decline, as well as slow economic growth, will make sustainment of the current healthcare system difficult in the near future. An aging population will increase the amount of medical expenditure required, especially with the baby-boomer generation of those born between 1955 and 1965. Meanwhile, there is always the problem of unification for the Korean Peninsula, and what role the health insurance system will have to play when it occurs. In the presidential election, health insurance is a main issue; however, there is greater focus on expansion and expenditure than revenue. Many aspects of Korea's NHI system (1977) were modeled after the German (1883) and Japanese (1922) systems. Such systems were created during an era where infections disease control was most urgent and thus, in the current non-communicable disease (NCD) era, must be redesigned. The Korean system, which is already forty years old, must be redesigned completely. Although health insurance benefit expansion is necessary, financial measures, as well as moral hazard control measures, must also be considered. Ultimately, there are three aspects that we must consider when attempting redesign of the system. First, the health security system must be reformed. NHI and Medical Aid must be amalgamated into one system for increased effectiveness and efficiency of the system. Within the single insurer system of the NHI must be an internal market for maximum efficiency. The NHIS must be separated into regions so that regional organizers have greater responsibility over their actions. Although insurance must continue to be imposed nationally, risk-adjustment must be distributed regionally and assessed by different regional systems. Second, as a solution for the decreasing flow of insurance revenue, low premium level must be increased to an appropriate level. Likewise, the national reserve fund (No. 36, National Health Insurance Act) must be enlarged for re-unification preparation. Third, there must be revolutionary reform of benefit package. The current system built a focus on communicable diseases which is inappropriate in this NCD era. Medical benefits must not be one-time events but provide chronic disease management. Chronic care models, accountable care organization, patient-centered medical homes, and other systems that introduce various benefit packages for beneficiaries must be implemented. The reimbursement system of medical costs should be introduced to various systems for different types of care, as is the case with part C (Medicare Advantage Program) of America's Medicare system that substitutes part A and part B. Pay for performance must be expanded so that there is not only improvement in quality of care but also medical costs. Moreover, beneficiaries of the NHI system must be aware of the amount of their expenditure through a deductible payment system so that spending can be profiled and monitored. The Moon Jae-in Government has announced its plans to expand the NHI system; however, it is important that a discussion forum is created so that more accurate analysis of the NHI, its environments, and current status of health care system, can take place for reforming NHI.

Optimum Delivery Frequency for Reducing Construction Logistics Cost under a Carbon Taxation (탄소세 부과시 건설 물류비용 최소화를 위한 운송빈도 최적화)

  • Park, Moon-Seo;Chun, Myung-Hee;Lee, Hyun-Soo;Hwang, Sung-Joo;Jang, Myung-Houn
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.12 no.3
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    • pp.73-82
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    • 2011
  • The term 'green' has become an important way of survival for the construction industry in 21th century in accordance with the emergence of the environmental crisis due to the climatic change. Especially the policy of carbon taxation, planed to be introduced from 2012, is expected to be a considerable burden to the construction industry which has abundant carbon emission during the resource transportation due to the complexity of resources and local distribution of the construction sites. In this regard, this study shows an optimizing strategy for delivery frequency, which downsizes the net distribution costs based on the assumption that, despite of its other advantagements, the frequent small lot mode of JIT delivery would take negative effects due to the increase of costs of transportation and carbon emission once the carbon taxation policy carried out. To simulate the efficiency of the management strategies, the System Dynamics modeling has been used. The results show that the frequent small lot transportation strategy is now always efficient method to these changes, and that the frequency of transportation should be re-determinated according to the extent of the imposition of carbon tax. This study provides the conceptual frame for an efficient management of transportation system of the construction industry, showing necessity of change of the resource transportation systems through analysing JIT deliver system in accordance with the global changes in environmental economy.

Forecasting Power of Range Volatility According to Different Estimating Period (한국주식시장에서 범위변동성의 기간별 예측력에 관한 연구)

  • Park, Jong-Hae
    • Management & Information Systems Review
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    • v.30 no.2
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    • pp.237-255
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    • 2011
  • This empirical study is focused on practical application of Range-Based Volatility which is estimated by opening, high, low, closing price of overall asset. Especially proper forecasting period is what I want to know. There is four useful Range-Based Volatility(RV) such as Parkinson(1980; PK), Garman and Klass(1980; GK) Rogers and Satchell(1991; RS), Yang and Zhang(2008; YZ). So, four RV of KOPSI 200 index during 2000.5.22-2009.9.18 was used for empirical test. The emprirical result as follows. First, the best RV which shows the best forecasting performance is PK volatility among PK, GK, RS, YZ volatility. According to estimating period forcasting performance of RV shows delicate difference. PK has better performance in the period with financial crisis of sub-prime mortgage loan. if not, RS is better. Second, almost result shows better performance on forecasting volatility without sub-prime mortgage loan period. so we can say that forecasting performance is lower when historical volatiltiy is comparatively high. Finally, I find that longer estimating period in AR(1) and MA(1) model can reduce forecasting error. More interesting point is that the result shows rapid decrease form 60 days to 90 days and there is no more after 90 days. So, if we forecast the volatility using Range-Based volaility it is better to estimate with 90 trading period or over 90 days.

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Estimating the Elasticity of Crude Oil Demand in Korea (한국 원유수요의 탄력성 추정)

  • Lee, Kyung-Hee;Kim, Kyung-Soo
    • Management & Information Systems Review
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    • v.37 no.3
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    • pp.65-81
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    • 2018
  • This study estimated the long-run and the short-run price and income elasticity of crude oil demand by using the ARDL model in Korea. First, the long-run cointegration relationship existed between crude oil demand and price or income in the ARDL-bounds tests. Second, the long-run own price, the cross price elasticity and the income elasticity were both statistically significant elastic and sensitive in the ARDL. Third, there was autocorrelation of the residuals, but no misspecification errors and heteroscedasticity, and then the residuals showed a normal distribution. And the CUSUM & CUSUMSQ tests showed that the coefficients were stable. Fourth, the short-run own price, the cross price elasticity and the income elasticity were both statistically significant elastic and sensitive in the ARDL-RECM. The ECM with the short-run dynamics showed rapid adjustments in the long-run equilibrium of oil demand after the economic crisis. In the short-run, the sensitivity of crude oil demand to price and income changes has moved in the same direction as the long-run case. Korea, depending too much on foreign crude oil, is vulnerable to the shocks of oil prices, so rising oil prices can certainly have a negative impact on Korea's trade balance. And the elasticity of long-run oil prices may help to control and manage Korea's oil demand. The government needs to strengthen monitoring of the country's policies and market trends related to crude oil, establish strategies to customize national policies and market conditions, and strengthen active market dominance efforts through pioneering new market and diversification.

A Study on the Volatilities of Inbound Tourists Arrivals using the Multivariate BEKK model (다변량 BEKK모형을 이용한 방한 외래 관광객의 변동성에 대한 연구)

  • Kim, Kyung-Soo;Lee, Kyung-Hee
    • Management & Information Systems Review
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    • v.32 no.3
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    • pp.1-23
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    • 2013
  • In this study, we try to investigate the spillover effects of volatility in international tourists arrivals between Korea and US, Japan, China by using the multivariate BEKK model from January 2005 to January 2013. In the results of this study, after the global financial crisis, we found a cointegration relationship and tourist arrivals of Japan were adjusted to recovery in the short term. Also tourists arrivals from China and Japan showed the long-term elasticity. In the conditional mean equation of a BEKK model, there were the spillover effects. And in the conditional variance equation, ARCH(${\epsilon}^2_t$) coefficients showed a strong influence on the arrivals of their own and the spillover effects and the asymmetric effects on the volatility of China and Japan arrivals. In GARCH(${\sigma}^2_t$) coefficients showed the asymmetric effects and the spillover effects of the conditional volatility among source arrivals. Therefore, we examined the asymmetric reaction of one-way or two-way tourist arrivals between source countries and Korea and the spillover effects related to tourists arrivals of source countries to Korea. We has confirmed a causal relationship between some of the tourists arrivals from source countries to korea.

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